Spend five minutes with housing headlines lately and you’ll see the same debate on repeat. Prices are too high. Prices need to stay high. Protect homeowners. Help buyers. Every side sounds urgent, and every side sounds certain. It makes for good sound bites. It doesn’t make for very helpful answers.
Because for most families, housing isn’t a political talking point. It’s deeply personal. It’s whether they can finally stop renting. Whether their kids get their own bedrooms. Whether retirement feels secure. Whether a move across town is possible without blowing up the monthly budget. And when you look at the issue from that kitchen-table perspective, the national argument about “high versus low prices” starts to feel like the wrong conversation entirely.
Most buyers don’t shop by price. They shop by payment. They aren’t asking, “Is this house $275,000 or $300,000?” They’re asking, “What will this cost us every month, and can we live comfortably with that number?” Mortgage rates, taxes, insurance, and maintenance often matter more than the list price itself. A slightly higher price with favorable financing can feel easier than a lower price with higher borrowing costs. Affordability lives in the monthly math, not the headline number.
At the same time, it’s important to acknowledge something that sometimes gets lost in the noise. Rising values aren’t inherently bad. For many homeowners, their house is their largest asset and their primary source of long-term wealth. Equity has funded retirements, college educations, and fresh starts for decades. Healthy appreciation matters. The goal isn’t falling prices. It’s steadier, more sustainable growth that protects today’s owners without quietly locking out tomorrow’s buyers.
Where the conversation really breaks down is supply. Simply put, we don’t have enough homes. The numbers back that up locally. According to the latest market snapshot from MORE, REALTORS, the St. Louis metropolitan area currently has just 5,117 active listings, or about 2.9 months of inventory. A balanced market typically carries closer to five or six months. In other words, we’re operating with roughly half the supply economists consider healthy. When that few homes are available across a region this size, affordability becomes a supply problem, not a political one. Even modest demand creates competition. Buyers feel it in multiple-offer situations. Sellers feel it when they have limited options for their next move.
There are also signs the market is normalizing rather than overheating. Homes are once again selling a bit below asking in many cases, and the pace has slowed compared to the frenzy of a few years ago. That’s actually a healthy shift. A stable market should feel manageable, not frantic.
Mortgage rates add another layer to the story. Rates in the six percent range aren’t unusual historically. Many longtime agents remember years when they were higher. The difference is that today’s prices reset upward during the ultra-low rate era. When those higher price points meet more traditional financing costs, the monthly payment stretches further for many households. It’s not that rates are extreme. It’s that the combination of today’s prices and today’s rates creates tighter budgets than buyers expected.
And in markets like St. Louis, recent appreciation hasn’t been some dramatic bubble. In many ways it simply reflects a return to steadier growth after years of slower, post-recession gains. The challenge isn’t that prices are irrational. It’s that incomes haven’t kept pace with the total monthly cost of ownership. At its core, affordability usually comes down to the monthly math. Which is why framing the debate as “keep prices high” versus “bring prices down” misses the point. It turns a complex market into a tug-of-war, when in reality both sides want something reasonable. Homeowners want to protect what they’ve built. First-time buyers want a fair shot to get in the door. Those goals don’t have to compete.
A healthy housing market does both. It looks less dramatic than the headlines. Inventory is steady. Appreciation is modest. Buyers aren’t forced into bidding wars every weekend. Sellers still build equity. Transactions feel predictable enough that families can actually plan their lives. In other words, it looks a little boring. And in real estate, boring is usually a good thing.
National debates will keep making noise. But housing outcomes are decided street by street, neighborhood by neighborhood. Here in St. Louis, the levers that really matter are inventory, construction, financing options, and whether everyday families can make the monthly math work.
If we focus on those, the rest tends to sort itself out. Because at the end of the day, this isn’t about winning an argument. It’s about whether the next family gets a chance to call a place home.
Karen Moeller
🌐 STLKaren.com
📧 Karen.McNeill@STLRE.com
📞 314.678.7866
About the Author:
Karen Moeller is a St. Louis area REALTOR® with MORE, REALTORS® and a regular contributor to St. Louis Real Estate News, helping clients make informed, data-driven decisions.
