The Impact of Credit Scores on St. Louis Real Estate Decisions

Whether you’re looking to buy or rent a home, your credit score is more than just a number—it’s a gateway to your future residence. A recent survey by LendingTree has shed light on the significant role credit scores play in Americans’ access to financial products, including those crucial for securing a home. Here’s a recap of the findings and their implications for the St. Louis real estate market.

Key Findings:

  • High Denial Rates: 42% of Americans reported their credit scores prevented them from obtaining a financial product in the past year, with this figure soaring to 74% among those with poor credit. For St. Louis residents, this could mean increased challenges in securing mortgages or rental agreements.
  • Credit Cards and Personal Loans: The top products consumers were denied due to their credit scores were credit cards (25%) and personal loans (12%). While not directly related to real estate, these denials can impact one’s ability to consolidate debt or cover moving expenses, indirectly affecting home buying or renting capabilities.
  • Perception of Financial Responsibility: 40% of Americans believe their credit scores do not accurately reflect their financial responsibility. This sentiment is even higher among those with poor credit (60%), millennials (47%), and women (44%). For potential homebuyers or renters in St. Louis, this discrepancy could lead to frustration and barriers in the housing market.
  • Payment History’s Importance: Despite being the most crucial factor in credit score calculations, 50% of Americans are unaware that payment history holds the most weight. This lack of knowledge can lead to missed opportunities for improving credit scores and, by extension, securing better terms for mortgages or leases.
  • Improving Credit Scores: The survey revealed that paying off debt was the primary method for improving credit scores over the past year. For St. Louis residents, understanding and applying this knowledge can be a strategic move towards enhancing eligibility for home buying or renting.


Implications for St. Louis Real Estate:
The survey’s insights highlight a critical barrier to homeownership and renting: the impact of credit scores on financial product accessibility. For St. Louis real estate professionals and potential homebuyers or renters, this underscores the importance of credit education and management as foundational steps towards achieving housing goals.

  • Educational Opportunities: Real estate professionals, such as the Masters of Real Estate at MORE, REALTORS®, can provide valuable guidance to clients on improving credit scores, emphasizing the role of payment history and debt management.
  • Strategic Planning: Understanding the weight of credit scores in financial decisions can help potential buyers or renters in St. Louis develop strategies to improve their scores before applying for mortgages or leases.
  • Market Accessibility: For those with poor credit, exploring alternative financing options or seeking professional credit counseling could open doors to the real estate market that might otherwise remain closed.

In St. Louis, as in the rest of the country, a strong credit score is more than just a number—it’s a key that unlocks the door to future housing opportunities. The recent LendingTree survey provides a basis for understanding the challenges and strategies related to credit scores in the real estate market. By focusing on credit education and management, St. Louis residents can navigate these challenges more effectively, making the dream of buying or renting a home more attainable.

 

Forty-One Percent of Americans Think The Housing Market Will Crash Next Year

According to results just released by Lending Tree from a survey they conducted in October, 41% of American’s surveyed expect the housing market to crash next year.  As the table below, which shows the results by generation, the Millennials are the most pessimistic about the market with 44% of the millennials surveyed believing the housing market is headed to a crash.  The most optimistic generation?  Baby boomers, with only 35% of the generation I belong to believing we are headed to a crash.

Inflation is the leading culprit…

Of those surveyed that believe the housing market is headed for a crash in the next year, 33% felt inflation would be the leading cause of the crash, followed by 24% that said it was interest rates.

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Seventy-Percent of Consumers Think Now is a Bad Time To Buy a Home-83% Of Millennial’s Feel That Way

According to Fannie Mae’s® Home Purchase Sentiment Index® (HPSI), 70% of consumers say it’s a bad time to buy a home while 25% feel it’s a good time to buy.  As the chart below illustrates, this is the highest level reached for it not being a good time to buy in the 3-year period the chart covers.  Actually, this is the highest level it’s reached since Fannie Mae began tracking the data in 2010.

Millennials are pessimistic about home buying…

The bottom chart also reflects the sentiment of consumers in the survey about buying a home now but is broken down by age group.  This chart shows the net percentage of those saying it’s a “good time to buy” less those saying “it’s a bad time to buy”.  The higher the line goes on the chart the more the good time to buy folks outweigh the bad time to buy.  As you can see, the black line, which depicts consumers in the 35-44 age group is the lowest on the chart with a net of -68.  This is the result of 83% of the consumers in this age group saying it is a bad time to buy and just 15% saying it’s a good time, resulting in a net of -68%.

Seniors have a better feeling about the market…

The red line depicts the sentiment of those 65 years and older and the net percentage there is -26%, so, while the percentage of people that feel now is not a good time to buy still outweighs the ones in this age group that think it is a good time, the resulting difference is about 40 points better than the millennial group.

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Why Aren’t More Millennials Buying Homes?

I may have the answer to the $64 question, why aren’t more millennials buying homes? The real estate industry spends a fair amount of time discussing the millennial generation trying to determine where they want to live, urban or suburban, and whether they want to own a home or are happier being a renter.  I have found many answers are contained In the Census Bureau Report, “The Changing Economics and Demographics of Young Adulthood: 1975–2016“.

There are some fascinating facts in the report, many of which give a lot of insight into this generation as well as their housing needs and plans.  Below a few highlights:

  • Young people are delaying marriage.  In the 1970’s 8 in 10 people were married by the time they turned 30, today it won’t be until the age of 45 that 8 in 10 are married.
  • More young people today live in their parents’ home than in any other arrangement. In fact, 1 of every three 18 – 34-year-olds lived in their parents home in 2015.
  • Between 1975 and 2016 the share of young women that were homemakers dropped from 43% to 14% of all women aged 25-34.
  • Of the young people living in their parents home, 1 out of 4 doesn’t work nor go to school.

Find the complete report here.

Homeownership Rate In Midwest Rises During 2nd Quarter – Highest In Nation

In the Midwest region of the U.S., the homeownership rate rose to 68.3% during the 2nd quarter of this year from 67.9% in the first quarter, according to a report just released by the U.S. Census Bureau.  The homeownership rate of 68.3% in the Midwest region is higher than the homeownership rate for the U.S. as a whole, which came in at 64.3% during the 2nd quarter, and is the highest of any region.  The South region has the 2nd highest homeownership rate at 65.9% and the West region the lowest at 59.7%, according to the report.

So much for “millennials don’t want to own homes“…

In many real estate circles over the past couple of years, there has been much debate over whether millennials have any interest in homeownership or not.  Probably more than half the time the consensus is this generation is not nearly as interested in, or focused on, homeownership as their baby boomer parents.  However, in the homeownership report for the 2nd quarter, the age group that had the largest increase in home ownership was the “under 35 years old” group.  Granted, this group has the lowest homeownership rate of the age groups in the report but increased to 36.5% from 35.3% in the prior quarter.  The homeownership rate for the older groups, 55-64 years and 65 years and above, both declined during the 2nd quarter to 75.1% from 75.4% and to 78.0% from 78.5%, both respectively.

Homeownership Rate – 1995-2018 – Chart

Homeownership Rate - 1995-2018 - Chart

 

 

St Louis’ Millennial Population Shows a Shift From City To St Charles County

The millennial generation, people born from 1981 through 1994, is predicted to outnumber the baby boomer generation sometime in 2019.  Given the size of the generation, as well as the fact many are getting married and starting families, the real estate industry is very interested in these young people.  Much time is spent trying to figure out whether they want to buy or rent, whether they will consider the suburbs or just stick to urban areas, etc.

Therefore, it does not come as a surprise that more than a third of the residents in the city of St Louis are millennials, attracted, no doubt, by the city lifestyle, a sharp contrast from the suburban upbringing many of them had with their baby boomer parents.  However, the tides may be turning though.

As the table below shows, during 2017 the millennial population in the city of St Louis dropped by 1.4% while St Charles County grew by 1.0% and St Louis and Jefferson County by 0.3% each.  As of 2017, the city of St Louis had 105,900 millennials living there, while St Charles County had 103,500, but if the trend continues, the millennial population in St Charles County will surpass the city of St Louis soon.  Who knows?  Maybe the millennials are more like us baby boomers than we thought and will end up buying homes in suburbia?

St Louis Area Millennial Population and Population Change – 2017

St Louis Area Millennial Population and Population Change - 2017

Projected Population by Generation

Projected Population by Generation

First-Time Homebuyers; 5 Things You Should Do BEFORE You Buy

Just over 1 of every three (34%) homebuyers in 2017 were first-time homebuyers according to the  With the growing population of millennials reaching an age where many are buying homes, I expect to see the percentage of first-time homebuyers increase over the next couple of years.

Many first-time homebuyers find the home buying process to be a little intimidating which is largely due to just lacking the experience of having done it before and the knowledge that is gained from the experience.  However, with a time spent getting educated on the process, the fears can be calmed and the home buying experience can be a great one for a first-time buyer!

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5-Things First-Time Homebuyers Should Do BEFORE Buying A Home…

(the summary is below but you can see the complete report by clicking the link above)

Step 1 Ask a real estate professional if current market conditions make now a good time to buy a home?
The real estate market suffered a blow when the housing bubble burst in 2008 but has now recovered and the talk for the past couple of years has been rising home prices and a shortage of homes for sale.  So does this make now a bad time to buy?
Step 2 Ask yourself these 3 questions to determine if now is the right time for YOU to buy?

  1. Do you want the responsibility?  Home-ownership does bring with it the responsibility to care for it and maintain it (there is no longer a landlord to call to take care of things for you); you are responsible for maintaining insurance coverage on the home, paying property taxes, subdivision association fees and, of course, your house payments on time.
  2. Are you financially ready?  DON’T BUY if you have not saved enough money to make a reasonable down-payment, pay closing costs, moving costs, etc., and still have some money left in the bank for “reserves”. Also, make sure your income is adequate to support the house payment you are taking on and if there is any doubt then either don’t buy or buy a lower-priced house, you can always move-up later down the road.

Is your income stable? If you get to this point and feel you are OK and can afford to buy a home, step back and look at the source of your income and consider how solid you think it is.
Step 3 Educate yourself on the market, the process and your rights.
Even though you will be using professionals in your home purchase and, particularly if you follow the advice in this report, will select good ones, you still should educate yourself about the process to give you a better understanding as you go through it. Plus, by knowing your rights and how the deal should go, you will notice when something is not right or you are not be treated properly.

Don’t buy before checking out the resources below:

Step 4 Pick a REALTOR® to work with you.
If you think the timing is right for you to buy a home, then the next step is to select a REALTOR® to work with you to help guide you through the process and avoid the “landmines” that are out there. Many buyers want to go it alone for a while and there are plenty of websites out there where you can search for homes for sale from now to eternity, you will save yourself a lot of time and aggravation by simply utilizing the services of a professional REALTOR® from the outset.

7 Questions you MUST ask an agent before choosing one

Step 5 Get pre-approved for a home loan
This step is important for several reasons: One, it confirms to you that you do have the financial resources to buy a house in the price range you are interested in and, two, when you provide the pre-approval letter to the seller with your offer it shows you are not only a serious buyer, but that you should be able to get a loan to buy their house. This gives you a leg-up in your negotiations over a buyer that is not as prepared.

(See The COMPLETE Report by Clicking the Link Below)

5-Things First-Time Homebuyers Should Do BEFORE Buying A Home…

 

The City Of St Louis Has Youngest Population and Lowest Homeownership Rate In Area

In the real estate community there are frequent discussions about the millennial’s and their impact on the real estate market.  Since their generation makes up the largest share of the population presently,  their interest, or lack thereof, in homeownership definitely has the attention of us in the real estate industry.   The consensus among many in the real estate industry is that  millennials don’t value homeownership as much as their baby boomer parents did, and do, however, they don’t necessarily have anything against the idea.  The millennial generation seems to be more driven by lifestyle and flexibility than whether or not they own where they live.

With this in mind, today I wanted to look at the median age of the city of St Louis as well as the surrounding counties to see where the younger people are migrating as well as look at the homeownership rates for those areas.  While I don’t know that there is a relationship between the median age of an area and the homeownership rate necessarily, there well could be.

The City of St Louis is where the young people are…

As the map below shows, the city of St Louis, with a median age of it’s population of 34.6 years, has the youngest population followed by St Charles county with a median age of 37.4 years.

The City of St Louis has the lowest homeownership rate by far…

As the second map below shows, the city of St Louis also has the lowest homeownership rate at 47.8%, however, St Charles County, the county with the second youngest median age has one of the highest homeownership rates in the area at 81.34%.

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City of St Louis Makes List of Top Millennial Rental Meccas

The city of St Louis is one of the “Top 17 Single Family Rental Millennial Meccas“, according to a report just released by Attom Data Solutions.  As the interactive info graphic below shows, St Louis joins the likes of Baltimore Maryland, Milwaukee Wisconsin and El Paso Texas, along with others, as a place that is ripe for investors to rent homes to millennials.  For the report, millennial were defined as people born between 1979 and 1993.  According to the report, investors that purchased rental homes in the city of St Louis during the first half of 2016 saw a gross rental yield of 12%, nearly 50% higher than the national average of 8.7%.  In addition, millennials make up nearly a third of the population of the city of  St Louis (29.3%) and 29.8% of the city is rental property, making for a solid rental market.  On the downside, the average wages in the city of St Louis is down 2% from last year.

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Are Home Prices Too High In St Louis?

Last week, National Mortgage News, published an article on a report which indicated home prices and homeownership rates are “out of whack”.  While the article never actually said home prices were too high, per se, it pointed out that when home prices peaked in 2006, homeownership rates began to decline as a result, implying that home prices caused home ownership to slow.  It goes on to state that, while home prices have recovered to the levels they peaked at in 2006, the homeownership rate, on the other hand, has continued to decline.

Are home prices to blame on the decline homeownership rates?

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St Louis Millennials Are Moving To The City and Their Parents Are Moving Out

I have the honor of serving as chairman of the St Louis Industry Forum which consists of leaders of professional and trade associations that are engaged in some aspect of the real estate industry in St Louis (such as REALTORS, Builders, Mortgage Lenders, Bankers, etc) and at our bi-monthly meetings millennial’s are often the topic of conversation with regard to this generations thoughts on home ownership vs. renting, where they want to live and other related matters.  It’s no surprise our industry would be so focused on the millennial generation since this group of teens to 30-something year-olds represents the largest generation (and group of future homeowners or tenants) we have seen.

In other articles I have addressed the issue of homeownership by the millennial generation so in this one I am instead going to look at where the millennials are moving.  I prepared the table below which shows all of the major counties in the MSA’s in Missouri, home affordability in those areas as well as the change in population with regard to the millennial generation as well as their parents generation, the baby boomers.

Millennials are heading to the city of St Louis…

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Chart Showing St Louis Home Prices Versus St Louis Rents
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Home Loan Delinquencies Continue To Decline-May Lead To Easing Requirements

According to a report just released by TransUnion, the mortgage delinquency rate for borrowers that are 60 days or more delinquent, declined almost 30 percent during the 3rd quarter of 2015 from a year ago.  During the third quarter of this year, the mortgage delinquency rate was 2.40%, down from 3.36% during the third quarter of 2014.

Mortgage Delinquencies Down 65% From Peak

The current mortgage delinquency rate of 2.40% is down 65% from when the delinquency rate peaked at 6.94% in the 1st quarter of 2010 as a result of the housing market bubble bursting in 2008.

Millennials Pay Their House Payments!

According to the report, the age group with the lowest mortgage delinquency rate fell in the millennial category having a delinquency rate of just 1.62%.  Right behind the young borrowers were the old ones (well, relatively speaking) with the 60+ age group having the 2nd lowest delinquency rate with 1.77%.

Out with the bad in with the good…

Joe Mellman, vice president and mortgage business leader for TransUnion, attributes the mortgage delinquency improvement to a combination of factors including:

  • Continued “funneling” of delinquent accounts through he foreclosure process
  • Strong performance by recent borrowers
  • Improving home prices

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Condo Share Of Home Sales In St Louis Higher Than National Average

The term Condominium usually brings to mind an image of a mid-rise or high-rise “apartment-style” building, however actually refers to the type of ownership and can be applied to attached and even detached homes as well.  The more common form of housing is a single family detached home with fee-simple ownership, particularly in smaller metropolitan areas and the suburbs.  The concept of condominiums while originally most likely begun by the Romans were first introduced into the U.S. around 1960.  Since the introduction of condominiums, they have gained in popularity, particularly in densely populated metropolitan areas such as New York Los Angeles, Miami and Chicago but also slowly made their way to St Louis and have gained in popularity here as well, particularly with older baby boomers, as well as younger millennials, both of whom are attracted to the lifestyle offered in condo living.

In St Louis Nearly One In Every 8 Home Sales Is A Condo – 

As the table below shows, during 2015 nearly one of every 8 (12.22%) home sales in St Louis has been a condominium, exactly the same as last year, and higher than the 11.61% rate on the national level shown in the second table below.  On the national level, the share of home sales attributable to condominiums is trending downward this year after peaking last year but St Louis, which also peaked last year, appears to be maintaining the pace.

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Student Loans May Not Be Impacting Home Ownership For Millennials As Much As Some Say

There have been many recent articles and reports about  the millennial generation and why they are not buying homes at the same rate as earlier generations did at their age.  Many point to the burden of student loan debt as a cause of their inability to qualify for a mortgage thereby holding the millennials back from buying a home.  However, a new study by TransUnion  suggests this may not be the case.

The study by TransUnion, which looked at people with student loans and their participation in various types of loans, both at the beginning of their student loan repayment period and two years later as well, for a period beginning in 2005 and then again in 2012 and then compared these rates to a “control group” which consisted of people without student loans.  As the table below shows, participation rates for home mortgages, credit cards and auto loans all dropped significantly between the 2005-2007 and 2012-2014 timeframes for both groups,  the people with, and without student loans.  The report suggests that, for both starting periods (2005 and 2012) the fact that the student loan group had lower participation rates in credit was related to them just completing school and having little or no income. This theory appears to be supported by the fact that when you look at the two year period following, the “student loan borrowers were actually more credit active” in obtaining auto loans than their counterparts and the rate of new home mortgage originations during the next two year period were nearly identical between the student loan and control groups for periods looked at.

 

Student loan borrowers may be better credit risks…

The results from the TransUnion study also showed that consumers in the age group of 18-29 (typical age for consumers with student loans) that have a student loan in repayment “generally had better performance on new accounts than their peers without student loans.”

 

Millennials with student loans should be viewed as an opportunity for lenders…

The report concludes saying their findings are important “because it shows lenders that rather than being concerned about student loan borrowers’ ability to manage new credit, this may actually be an attractive marketable group, both in terms of higher credit demand as well as potentially better repayment performance,”

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St Louis Ranked As One Of Top 50 Markets To Rent To Millenials

The city of St Louis made the list of the top 50 markets to rent to Millenials, published by RealtyTrac.  In determining the best markets in the U.S. for renting to millennial (most of whom are in their 20’s or early 30’s), RealtyTrac looked at rental markets where the gross annual yield on rentals was at least 9 percent, where Millenials make up more than 22 percent of the market (the national average) and where the Millenial population had increased at least 5% from 2007 through 2013.

For the city of St Louis, as the table below shows, the Millenial population grew 18% from 2007 to 2013 and in 2013 accounted for over 28% of the market.

St Louis One of the best cities to rent to millenials

Source: RealtyTrac

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Will Millennials Fuel Home Sales Next Year?

The Millennial generation, consisting of people born between 1980 and the mid-2000s, make up about one-third of the U.S. population and, as more of them are becoming adults, have been seen as perhaps the saving grace to a lagging home market.  Unfortunately, thus far, the Millennial’s have appeared to favor renting rather than buying, although that may be more the result of necessity than desire, the result of increased student loan debt and tight lending standards.  However, according to a survey of Millenial’s recently conducted by the California Association of REALTORS, a majority of the Millenial’s plan to buy a home in the next five years and over half (54%) of the 18-34 year-olds surveyed gave homeownership and importance of “8” on a scale of 1 to 10.

This is good news for the housing industry as, like the chart below illustrates, the homeownership rate by people less than 35 years old has been at historic lows at just over 36.5% the last couple of years after peaking at 42.6% in 2006.  Considering there are 24.8 million people in this category, if the rate of home ownership increases by just 1% that could increase home sales by 250,000 sales.

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Millennial’s Today Racking Up Student Loans Not Home Loans

Millenial’s (people that are roughly 18 to 33 years old) are not as interested in buying homes today as their baby-boomer parents were at their age and, while there are probably some lifestyle issues that play a large part of it, the debt they are piling up in student loans may have something to do with their decision not to take on mortgage debt as well.  According to information provided by TransUnion, the percentage of Millenial’s debt that is attributed to student loans is 36.8% today, an increase of over 185% from 2005 when student loans were responsible for just 12.9% of that age groups debt.   On the hand, the percentage of the Millenial’s debt today that is for a home mortgage is 42.9%, down 32% from 2005 when it was  63.2%, according to TransUnion.

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McMansions Not Appealing To Babyboomers Kids

dennis-norman-realtor“McMansions“, which Wikipedia defines as “a large, new house in a sub-division of similarly large houses, which all seem mass produced and lacking distinguishing characteristics” and became popular in the 80’s and 90’s, are not appealing to today’s younger home buyer, according to a survey conducted by Better Homes and Gardens® Real Estate.  According to the survey, “Millennial’s” which, for the sake of this survey was considered to be people between the ages 18 and 35, are looking for a home that is distinctly different than that of their parents generation which, for many of them, are the baby boomers. This group of young home buyers are not looking for stereotypical and prototypical luxury homes (ie: McMansion) but instead want homes that are different and suit their personal lifestyle.

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Top 100 web sites for do it yourself home improvement

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Are you ready to tackle that bathroom renovation you’ve been putting off? Before you pick up the phone and hire a contractor, why not save some cash and try your hand at it. Considering the cost of renovations for homeowners, DIY has gained popularity. The following list, created by Construction Management Degree.com, contains 100 of the top DIY websites to help guide your home improvement projects, in no particular order. We arrived at this list through our own research, and for the benefit of our readers. The list is organized by area of the home including; General Remodeling, Interior Decorating, Kitchen and Bathroom, Office and Workspaces, Landscaping and Exterior, Basement, Storage, and Closets. Continue reading “Top 100 web sites for do it yourself home improvement

2012 Presidential Elections: 69.6% of Americans Said Housing Will Influence Their Vote

Candidate positions on housing will be important considerations to nearly seven of 10 Americans (69.6%) in the 2012 presidential and congressional elections, according to a new national survey on housing released today by Move, Inc. This is especially true for Millennials(1) (70.7%), the next generation of homebuyers and the segment expected to play as important a role in the 2012 elections as they did in 2008. Continue reading “2012 Presidential Elections: 69.6% of Americans Said Housing Will Influence Their Vote