By Charles Hugh Smith, on November 4th, 2009 Loose lending standards in government-backed mortgages is setting up the next wave of defaults and sharp declines in housing prices.
Charles Hugh Smith, Of Two Minds
Beneath the hype that housing has bottomed is an ugly little scenario: lending standards are still loose and the low-down payment, high-risk loans being guaranteed by government agencies are setting up the next giant wave of defaults and foreclosures.
You might have thought that the near-demise of risky-mortgage mills Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would have cooled the supply of highly leveraged Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on October 20th, 2009 Dennis Norman
By: Dennis Norman
Yesterday the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) reported that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s trial mortgage loan modifications under the Obama Administrations Home Affordable Modification Plan (HAMP) were up more than 40 percent in September 2009 from the previous month. According to the report, mortgage loans that are 60-plus-days delinquent increased to 1,401,000 borrowers in July, up a whopping 147 percent from July, 2008 when there were 566,000 borrowers 60 plus days delinquent.
Here are highlights from the report (all the data, unless noted otherwise is from July 31, 2009):
Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on October 8th, 2009 Dennis Norman
By Dennis Norman
Foreclosure rates in St. Louis increased for the month of August over the same period last year according to a report released today by First American CoreLogic. The report showed the St. Louis metro area to have a foreclosure rate of 1.24 percent in August, up just slightly from July’s rate of 1.20 percent, but up over 63 percent from a year ago when the rate was 0.76 percent.
As bad as the foreclosure rate for St. Louis sounds we are still doing better than the national rate of 2.86 percent for Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on September 10th, 2009 Dennis Norman
By: Dennis Norman
Anyone that follows any of my posts on various real estate blogs may well be getting tired of hearing me talk about foreclosure and mortgage delinquency rates. This is no doubt especially true when I am doing it in the context of trying to “chill” the excitement over recent “good” news on the housing market. However, there is good reason for this; these two issues are real problems, including right here in St. Louis, and they are not going away anytime soon.
This was evidenced in a report released today by First American Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on September 1st, 2009 Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist, NAR
By: Dennis Norman
Today the National Association of REALTORS(R) issued their Pending Home Sales Index Report for July showing pending sales in the U.S. were up for the sixth consecutive month, the best streak since NAR began the pending home sale index in 2001.
Here in the Midwest pending home sales for July were not as strong showing a 2.0 percent drop from June, however still 8.1% above a year ago. The only other region that saw a decline in month to month pending home sales in July was the Northeast with a Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on August 28th, 2009
Charles Hugh Smith, Of Two Minds
By: Charles Hugh Smith:
In February 2007 I suggested a 4% mortgage delinquency rate could trigger a decline in the entire housing market. Since that proved prescient, we should revisit the analytic tool behind that call: the Pareto Principle.
There is a whiff of euphoria in the housing market, a heavily touted confidence that “the bottom is in.” It’s all roaring back–rising sales, multiple bids by anxious buyers, 3.5% down payments, low mortgage rates and the bonus of an $8,000 first-time home buyer credit (a gift from U.S. taxpayers). Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on August 22nd, 2009 Dennis Norman
By: Dennis Norman
All the news lately about the housing market, home sales in particular, has been encouraging and showing signs of stabilization in the real estate market and demonstrating that the real estate market may have seen the worst. Just when you think you may be through the storm though you see another dark cloud lurking in the distance. For the real estate market this dark cloud could very well be mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures.
At the end of this week the Mortgage Bankers Association reported that serious mortgage delinquencies (homeowners that are 90 or Continue Reading →
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