By Dennis Norman, on July 16th, 2010 Dennis Norman
Missouri one of 32 States Identified as “Low” risk of mortgage fraud
According to the 2010 Mortgage Fraud Trends Report released by CoreLogic this week, fraud risk in the mortgage industry has declined by 25 percent since it peaked in the third quarter of 2007. Even though the trend is down it is still estimated that there were $14 billion in fraud losses experienced in 2009 alone.
CoreLogics’ fraud index can drill down to show states, cities and even streets that have the highest mortgage fraud risk. Highlights of the report:
Overall mortgage fraud risk has Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on July 13th, 2010 Dennis Norman
According to a report issued today by CoreLogic, their home price index shows home prices in the U.S. increased in May, marking the fourth-consecutive month there was a year-over-year increase in home prices. U.S. home prices in May 2010 increased by 2.9 percent over May 2009.
St. Louis home prices did better than the U.S. average, increasing by 3.49 percent in May 2010 compared with May 2009.
No doubt some of the good news was the result of buyers rushing to buy a home before the April 30th deadline to receive tax credits. This will affect Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on July 1st, 2010 Dennis Norman
There was no question in my mind that home sales would plummet after the April 30th deadline to buy a home and qualify for the home-buyer tax credit passed, the only question was how bad? Today the National Association of REALTORS released it’s Pending Home Sales Index for May showing a decrease of 30.0 percent in the index from April (seasonally adjusted) and a 15.9 percent increase from May 2009. In my past articles I have spoke of a “sugar-rush” created in the market by the tax credits and the sudden slow-down after that wears off…we are Continue Reading →
By Robert Fishel, on June 30th, 2010
The state of Missouri funded a $15 million tax credit incentive program in January of this year to help spur home sales, but few have taken advantage of the program.
Now, Missouri home buyers must complete the purchase of their home by August 31, 2010 to take advantage of the program. The Missouri Housing Development Commission (MHDC) must receive their HOPE application by September 30, 2010.
HOPE stands for Home Ownership Purchase Enhancement. Homes purchased after August 31, 2010 will not be eligible for the HOPE program.
The HOPE program was expected to pay the property taxes for 9,000 Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on June 30th, 2010 Dennis Norman
Average discount on Foreclosure and Bank-Owned Homes is 27 Percent
This morning RealtyTrac released a report stating that 31 percent of all residential sales in the first quarter of 2010 were foreclosure homes or bank-owned homes. They are reporting 233,000 foreclosure and bank-owned homes sold during first quarter 2010 at an average price discount of 27 percent (based upon average sale price of non-foreclosure properties).
This data is fairly consistent with date from the National Association of REALTORS which reported there were right at 1 million existing homes sold in the first quarter of 2010 and Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on June 29th, 2010 Dennis Norman
This morning S&P/Case-Shiller Index report for April was released showing that theannual growth rates of all 20 Metro Area’s their reports cover improved in April compared to March 2010. The 10-city composite is up 4.6 percent from the year before and the 20-city composite is up 3.8 percent from the year before.
However, in spite of this little bit of encouragement, David Blitzer, Chairman of the Standard & Poor’s Index Committee casts a negative light on the market by pointing out the, while this report does show some price gains, “many of the gains are modest Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on June 25th, 2010 Dennis Norman
According to a report issued by Radar Logic Incorporated government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) and Federal agencies involved in housing finance currently have an inventory of over 200,000 repossessed homes. Being the largest owner of foreclosed homes in the U.S. gives the government a lot of power and influence over the housing market for years to come as they will generate significant pressure on home prices as they sell off foreclosed homes in the coming years.
Foreclosed homes currently sell at significant discounts to the unpaid balances of the mortgages they back, generating a loss for the seller Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on June 23rd, 2010 Dennis Norman
Last month after the new home sales reports came out I had this to say:
“I’m very encouraged by home sales in March and April, both in new homes and existing home sales and, if it wasn’t for the fact the homebuyer tax-credit incentive expired April 30th, no doubt a factor that caused buyers to rush to buy, I would feel the market was turning. However, I have strong concerns that this recent “housing recovery” is the result of an artificial market created by incentives, leading to sort of a “sugar-rush” among homebuyers, and now that Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on June 22nd, 2010 Dennis Norman
May and June Sales Expected to Remain Elevated as Buyers Rush to Close By June 30th Deadline for Tax Credits.
The deadline to buy a home and qualify for the home-buyer tax credit was April 30th so it’s not surprising we saw pending home-sales increase dramatically in March and April as buyers rushed to get “under-contract” before the April 30th deadline. For those home-buyers that were lucky enough to qualify for the home-buyer tax credit they have, unless Congress extends the deadline, until June 30, 2010 to close on the purchase of their home. Therefore, as I Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on June 21st, 2010 Dennis Norman
A report just issued by Radarlogic shows that, since 2006, lower-priced homes have been selling better than higher-priced ones. Given the current economy this is not all that surprising but it is a dramatic change from what the norm was during the “housing boom”.
Highlights from the report include:
During the housing boom (2000 through 2005) sales of homes for less than $350,000 remained pretty constant on a year-over-year basis while homes in the $350,000 – $900,000 range increased by 32 percent per year on average. In 2006 the number of home sales in all price Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on June 18th, 2010 Dennis Norman
According to a press release issued by the FBI, nearly 500 people have been arrested in a nationwide mortgage fraud take-down as part of “Operation Stolen Dreams.” This operation was launched on March 1, 2010 and, according to the FBI, has lead to a total of 485 arrests, 330 convictions and the recovery of nearly $11 million. The FBI estimates that losses from a variety of fraud schemes are estimated to exceed $2 billion.
Operation Stolen Dreams is the government’s largest mortgage fraud take-down to date. But FBI Director Robert S. Mueller cautioned that there is Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on June 16th, 2010
The U.S. Census Bureau and US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) issued a their report on New Residential Construction for May 2010 showing a decrease in building permits and a decrease in new home starts from April.
The report shows the following:
Building permits issued for single-family residences in May were at an annual rate of 438,000 which is 9.9 percent below the revised April rate of 486,000 and an increase of 3.1 percent from a year ago when the rate was 425,000. Housing starts for single-family residences in May were at an annual rate of 468,000 Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on June 14th, 2010
Dennis Norman
Will the Bears or Bulls prevail in 2010?
As the real estate market is beginning to show signs that we are “bottoming out” and that the down-slide is leveling off the discussion has become what the rest of 2010 holds in store. Some say we are entering a Bull market and expect prices to increase from the depressed levels they have reached citing the greatly increased affordability of homes and record low interest rates; others say we are entering a Bear market and that over-supply in the market, largely a result of record foreclosures, will Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on June 4th, 2010 Dennis Norman
A report released by CoreLogic showed the St. Louis metro area to have a foreclosure rate in April of 1.49 percent up slightly from March’s revised rate of 1.45 percent and an increase of 34.2 percent from the year prior when the rate was 1.11 percent.
The national foreclosure rate for April remains over twice the rate of St. Louis at 3.20 percent and was an increase of 30.1 percent from a year ago when the national foreclosure rate was 2.46 percent. For the State of Missouri the April foreclosure rate was 1.33 percent, a 30.4 Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on June 2nd, 2010 Dennis Norman
Today the National Association of REALTORS released it’s Pending Home Sales Index for April showing an increase of 6.0 percent in the index from March (seasonally adjusted) and a whopping 22.4 percent increase from April 2009. This comes on the heels of a 5.3 percent increase in March and an 8.3 percent increase in February. If these were pure “market-driven” sales this would be extremely exciting news and point toward a recovery in the real estate market. Unfortunately, everything I see points to this being driven primarily, if not purely, by the April 30th deadline to Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on June 1st, 2010 UPDATE- June 2, 2010: The National Association of REALTORS obtained answers from the Treasury Department on 3 common questions about HAFA:
agents are not permitted to rebate a portion of their commission to the buyer, sellers who are real estate agents must list their home for sale with another broker, not their own broker, and the incentive allowed for subordinate lien holders (6% of any one subordinate lien, up to a total of $6,000 for all subordinate liens) is a hard cap and may not be supplemented from any source.
Dennis Norman
In March I did an update on Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on June 1st, 2010 Dennis Norman
After seeing a spike in permits for new homes in St. Louis in March, with the exception of the City of St. Louis, all the St. Louis metro area counties saw a decline in new home permits in April, some rather steep based upon the latest data reported by the Home Builders Association of St. Louis (HBA).
Existing home sales data and mortgage application data have suggested that the April 30th deadline for the home-buyer tax credit caused an artificial surge in the housing market as buyers raced to beat the deadline to buy a home; Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on May 28th, 2010 Dennis Norman
Talk about the housing market not being able to catch a break….it seems every time something positive happens to give us a little encouragement, something else pops up to give the market another black eye. Here we are less than a month after the home-buyer tax credit deadline has passed and we are seeing reports of home prices dropping again as well as the volume of sales, and now, the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) is set to expire on May 31st. Of course Congress could extend the program prior to the expiration, but the word Continue Reading →
By Robert Fishel, on May 26th, 2010
The National Flood Insurance Program, known as the NFIP, lapsed March 28 this year and left many pending home sales in limbo.
Congress and President Barack Obama temporarily reinstated the program 18 days later on April 16 as part of a bill that also extended unemployment benefits and Medicare reimbursement for doctors. However, the temporary extension of the NFIP legislation will expire again on May 31.
The stage has now been set for another lapse in funding for the program just weeks before the mandatory June 30 closing deadline for buyers attempting to satisfy the requirements of the federal Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on May 26th, 2010 Dennis Norman
The U.S. Department of Commerce released a report showing the sale of New Homes in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 504,000, a 14.8 percent increase from the revised March rate of 439,000 and is 47.8 percent above a year ago. The inventory of new homes (seasonally adjusted) at the end of April is just 5.0 months a huge decline from just two months ago when it was 9.2 months.
My Mantra
As has been my long-running mantra, I don’t like “seasonally adjusted” numbers and “rate” of sales (nor does Standard & Poors, Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on May 25th, 2010 Dennis Norman
Today the S&P/Case-Shiller Index report for the first quarter of 2010 was released showing that the U.S. National Home Price Index fell 3.2 percent in the first quarter of 2010, but remains above it’s level from a year-earlier.
In March, 13 of the 20 MSA’s covered by the Case-Shiller report, as well as both the 10-city and 20-city composites, were down for the month however both the composites as well as 10 of the 20 MSA’s showed year-over-year gains. The report cites the end of the tax incentives and the increasing foreclosure rate as reasons the Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on May 24th, 2010 New Survey Finds 76 Percent of Consumers now Believe Renting to Be a Better Option Over Homeownership
Advantages Cited Include Flexibility to Move to a Different Location with New Job Opportunities
Dennis Norman
Last month I did a post addressing housing affordability, the cost of renting versus owning a home, and whether the real estate market over the past couple of years was causing the idea of home ownership as the “Great American Dream to “lose some of it’s sizzle?
For this reason I found a survey, conducted by Harris Interactive and commissioned by the National Apartment Association, Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on May 24th, 2010 Dennis Norman
Sales increased for second consecutive month-
With the home-buyer tax credits ending April 30th, it’s not surprising that we saw an increase of home sales in March, and now in April, as buyers rushed to buy before the deadline to have a congract of April 30, 2010. According to the latest report from the National Association of REALTORS(R), existing home sales in the US in April increased 7.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted-annual rate of 5.77 million units in April from a revised level of 5.36 million units in March, and increased 22.8 percent from a year Continue Reading →
By Robert Fishel, on May 19th, 2010 It’s all about Europe debt crisis…
Trading action in the mortgage markets have been and continue to be influenced by the ongoing concern over Europe’s debt crisis. This uncertainty has overshadowed a growing amount of data flow from our own economy that is signaling or own recovery. This uncertainty continues to drive capital into dollar denominated assets. The FHA To Reduce Allowable Seller Concessions this Summer/ Is the Housing Market Recovering for Real…
The percentage sellers can take from the sales price of a home to fund closing costs is being cut from 6% to 3%. According to an announcement Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on May 13th, 2010 Dennis Norman
In an effort to “support overall market stability and reinforce the importance of borrowers working with their lenders when they have difficulty paying their mortgages”, Fannie Mae has eased their policies with regard to the eligibility of borrowers to obtain a new mortgage loan after having a short-sale or deed-in-lieu of foreclosure. The “waiting period” that someone must wait before getting a new mortgage after a short-sale or deed-in-lieu has been shortened in certain situations.
Changes to the Waiting Period After a Short-Sale or Deed-in-Lieu of Foreclosure:
Deed-In-Lieu of Foreclosure Current waiting period – 4 years Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on May 12th, 2010 Dennis Norman
According to a report issued by the National Association of REALTORS, a growing number of metropolitan areas are experiencing price gains from a year ago, while most states have seen healthy gains in home sales from the first quarter of 2009.
Here in St. Louis, the median home price for first quarter was $116,100, a 15.1 percent increase from a year ago when the median price was $100,900, however an 8.4 percent decrease from the 4th quarter of 2009 when the median home price for the St. Louis area was $126,800. State-wide, the median home price Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on May 7th, 2010 Dennis Norman
The St. Louis real estate market picked up a little steam in the first quarter of this year with an increase in the number of homes sold over the prior quarter, a reduction in the months-supply of homes for sale and a sharp increasing in pending sales. The homebuyer tax credit with it’s deadline to enter into contract to buy a home of April 30th helped fuel the increase in pending sales no doubt, but hopefully that wasn’t the only impetus.
Here’s a county by county look at the St. Louis real estate market for the first Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on May 4th, 2010 Dennis Norman
Today the National Association of REALTORS released it’s Pending Home Sales Index for March showing an increase of 5.3 percent in the index from February (seasonally adjusted) and a whopping 21.1 percent increase from March 2009. This follows an 8.3 percent increase in February so it is definitely creating a nice trend that makes me somewhat optimistic. We should remember though, in March and April we are expecting to see home sales spike as buyers rush to buy before the April 30th deadline to have a home under contract to qualify for the homebuyer tax credit.
Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on May 3rd, 2010 Dennis Norman
Last October I wrote about an effort by the Missouri Association of REALTORS (MAR) to protect Missouri homeowners from facing double taxation through a real estate transfer tax by backing an effort to amend the Missouri Constitution to prohibit such a tax. To get the issue on November’s ballot, petitions with signatures from a requisite number of Missouri voters needed to be submitted to the Secretary of State by yesterday.
Today, the Vote YES to Stop Double Taxation Committee, announced that on Sunday it turned in petitions, signed by “tens of thousands of registered voters”, to the Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on April 30th, 2010 Dennis Norman
Although 2010 is a non-reassessment year, property owners in St. Louis County who disagree with the Assessor’s opinion of the value of their property, have the option to exercise their right to appeal that valuation to the St. Louis County Board of Equalization.
Missouri state law requires the Assessor to determine a property’s fair market value as of January 1 of the reassessment year, which is every odd numbered year, such as 2009 and 2011. Since values are established for a two-year time period, appellants need to be aware that the market conditions of January 1, 2009 Continue Reading →
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