Three Missouri communities recently landed on a national list of the Best Places to Live in America: St. Peters, O’Fallon, and Florissant.
Congratulations are certainly in order.
But when I saw the rankings, I wasn’t thinking about the winners.
I was thinking about a statistics class I took years ago at Purdue University.
One day, a professor presented our class with the results of what appeared to be an incredibly compelling survey. The sample size was large. The statistics were impressive. The conclusions seemed definitive.
There was only one problem.
Most of the students in the room didn’t believe the results.
As we worked through the data, we eventually discovered something important. The survey itself wasn’t flawed. The respondents weren’t lying. The statistics had been calculated correctly.
The issue was that we misunderstood who had been surveyed.
That lesson has stayed with me for years because it applies far beyond statistics classrooms.
It also applies to rankings.
## Every Ranking Starts With a Question
Most people look at a ranking and assume it is telling them what is best.
In reality, a ranking is usually answering a specific question.
The challenge is that many readers never stop to ask what that question was.
When U.S. News releases its annual Best Places to Live rankings, it is not attempting to determine the universally best place for every person in America. Instead, it evaluates communities using a methodology that weighs factors such as affordability, quality of life, desirability, and job market conditions.
The ranking is the answer.
The methodology is the question.
And the question matters.
## Why “Best” Means Different Things to Different Buyers
Imagine three buyers.
One wants a walkable downtown, historic homes, local restaurants, and community events within walking distance.
Another wants newer construction, larger square footage, and the lowest possible monthly payment.
A third wants acreage, privacy, and room for outdoor recreation.
All three are searching for the best place to live.
There is a good chance they will end up in completely different communities.
None of them are wrong.
They’re simply measuring different things.
A ranking that heavily rewards affordability may produce a different winner than one that prioritizes walkability, nightlife, school performance, commute times, or housing diversity.
Change the criteria and you change the winner.
## What This Year’s Rankings May Really Be Telling Us
One of the most interesting aspects of this year’s rankings is not necessarily which communities appeared on the list.
It’s what the methodology suggests about today’s homebuyers.
U.S. News indicated that affordability and value played a larger role in the rankings as consumers continue to place greater emphasis on housing costs and overall affordability.
That should not surprise anyone who has been paying attention to the housing market.
For many buyers, the conversation has shifted from:
*”Where would I most like to live?”*
to:
*”Where can I realistically afford to live?”*
Those are related questions.
They are not the same question.
And different questions often produce different answers.
## The Most Important Part Is Usually Hidden
The communities that appear on a ranking are easy to see.
The methodology that produced the ranking is often hidden several clicks away.
Yet that methodology may be the most important part of the entire exercise.
When consumers see a city ranked highly, they often assume the ranking proves the community is objectively superior.
What the ranking actually proves is that the community scored well according to a specific set of measurements.
Those are very different conclusions.
A ranking can be useful. It can introduce buyers to communities they may not have considered and provide a starting point for research.
What it cannot do is tell every buyer where they should live.
## The Question Behind the Ranking
The next time you see a list of the “Best Places to Live,” don’t start by looking at who won.
Start by asking what was measured.
Because the most important information in a ranking is often the information that never appears in the ranking itself.
The ranking is simply the answer.
Understanding the methodology is how you discover the question.
And in both statistics and real estate, the question often matters more than the answer.
Karen Moeller
STLKaren.com
Karen.McNeill@STLRE.com
314.678.7866
About the Author:
Karen Moeller is a St. Louis area REALTOR® with MORE, REALTORS® and a regular contributor to St. Louis Real Estate News, helping clients make informed, data-driven decisions.
