The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) recently released its NAHB/Westlake Royal Remodeling Market Index (RMI) for the third quarter of 2023. The index showed a decline, with a reading of 65, which is three points lower than the previous quarter. Despite the dip, the index remains above 50, indicating that more remodelers view the market conditions as good rather than poor. However, the decline suggests that the remodeling market is experiencing some cooling off, particularly in larger projects.
Current Conditions and Future Indicators
The Current Conditions Index, which is an average of three components including large, moderately-sized, and small remodeling projects, fell five points to an average of 72. Specifically, large remodeling projects ($50,000 or more) decreased by five points to 67, moderate projects (between $20,000 and $50,000) fell by four points to 73, and small projects (under $20,000) declined by five points to 76.
The Future Indicators Index, which measures the rate of incoming leads and inquiries as well as the backlog of remodeling projects, also showed a decline. It fell three points to 57 compared to the previous quarter. The component measuring the rate of incoming leads and inquiries dropped by three points to 56, while the backlog of remodeling jobs decreased by two points to 59.
During the 3rd quarter of this year, there were 1,200 properties with foreclosure filings in the St. Louis MSA, according to the U.S. Foreclosure Market Report by ATTOM Data. This marks a 17% increase in St. Louis foreclosures from the prior quarter and an increase of 32% in St Louis foreclosure activity from a year ago.
The table below reveals that the city of St Louis saw the most foreclosures during 3rd quarter, followed by the Illinois counties of St Clair and Madison.
For years, the average buyer’s agent commission rate in the St. Louis real estate market has remained remarkably stable. According to a chart from MORE, REALTORS®, the rate has consistently been at 2.7% for not just the past five years but for over two decades. However, recent data shows a notable shift. Starting in June 2023, the rate dropped to 2.6%, followed by a further decline to 2.575% in July and 2.5% in August, where it remained in September.
A Response to Legal Spotlight?
The timing of this decline coincides with a period of increased scrutiny on real estate commissions, largely due to recent class-action lawsuits that have been the subject of several articles I’ve written over the past several months.
While it’s too early to definitively say that the decline in commission rates is a direct response to these lawsuits, the correlation is hard to ignore. The legal challenges have certainly shed light on the industry’s practices, prompting discussions among consumers and professionals alike about the fairness and transparency of commission rates.
Average Commission Rate to Buyers Agents in St Louis
Every month, Fannie Mae surveys consumers to gauge their sentiment on whether it’s a good time to buy or sell a home. The results are published in their Home Purchase Sentiment Index® (HPSI). In the most recent HPSI report, 84% of respondents said they felt now was a bad time to buy a home. This is the highest percentage holding this view since the survey’s inception in 2012.
On the flip side, 63% of those surveyed believed now was a good time to sell a home. This is a slight dip from last month’s 66%.
As for interest rates, a mere 17% of consumers expect mortgage rates to decrease in the next 12 months
The St. Louis real estate market is a complex landscape, influenced by various factors such as location, amenities, and notably, school districts. In this article, we delve into an exclusive comparison between two St Louis school districts: Rockwood in west St Louis county and Ferguson-Florissant in north St Louis county. Utilizing the STL Market Reports provided exclusively by MORE, REALTORS®, as well as infographics depicting census data, we aim to offer a comprehensive overview of these markets for the 12-month period ending September 30, 2023.
Key Market Trends
Rockwood School District
Decline in Sales: The Rockwood School District saw a decline of 28.63% in the number of homes sold compared to the prior 12-month period.
Increase in Price: Despite the decline in sales, the median sold price increased by 3.45%.
Ferguson-Florissant School District
Decline in Sales: The Ferguson-Florissant School District experienced a decline in sales of 18.42%.
Decrease in Price: Unlike Rockwood, Ferguson-Florissant also saw a decline in the median sold price by 1.99%.
As a follow-up to my previous article on the diverging trends in luxury and non-luxury home sales in the St. Louis area, we now turn our attention to the current state of inventory in these two segments. The tables below (exclusively available from MORE, REALTORS®) reveals a surprising contrast: the supply of luxury homes (with a list price of $700,000 or above) in the St. Louis 5-County Core market stands at 2.13 months, while the inventory for non-luxury homes is only 1.40 months.
A Closer Look at Luxury Home Inventory
The 2.13-month supply of luxury homes in the St. Louis 5-County Core market suggests, while still favoring sellers, a more balanced market than the non-inventory market which, due to the very low supply, still favors sellers.
The St. Louis real estate market is experiencing a fascinating divergence in trends between luxury and non-luxury homes. According to the latest data from MORE, REALTORS®, the market for luxury homes—those priced at $750,000 and above—is on the rise, reaching its highest level in eight months. In contrast, the market for non-luxury homes, priced below $750,000, has been on a steady decline for about two years. This article delves into these trends, referencing two illuminating charts from MORE, REALTORS®.
Luxury Home Sales on the Upswing
The first chart from MORE, REALTORS® illustrates the upward trajectory of luxury home sales in the St. Louis area. As the chart shows, for the 12-month period ended September 30, 2023, there were 1,351 luxury homes sold in the combined markets of the city and counties of St Louis and St Charles County, which is the highest 12-month trend since January of this year.
There were 3,946 building permits issued for new single-family homes in the St Louis area during the 12-month period ended August 31, 2023. This represents a decline of 12.04% from the prior 12-month period, during which 4,486 permits were issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA). Six of the seven counties covered in the report saw a decline in building permits from the previous period with 4 of them seeing double digit declines. Warren County, on the other hand, saw a slight increase in permit activity.
St Louis New Home Building Permits – August 2023
(click on table below for page with live charts showing additional permit data)
According to the latest MLS data reported by MORE, REALTORS®, there is currently a 1.38-month supply of homes for sale in the 5-county core market of St. Louis. While this may not seem like a significant inventory, it’s worth noting that for the past few years, the supply was below half a month. It gradually increased to over one month and reached 1.38 months at the end of September. This represents the highest level of inventory, based on months’ supply, that the St. Louis area has seen in over three years. However, this is still well below the historical norm of a 4 to 6-month supply.
Home sales for 12-month period ended September 3oth were, as the report below shows, down nearly 20% in the St Louis area and home prices were up 3.77%.
As a result of rising interest rates and home prices at levels higher than increases in income, homes in St Louis continue to become less affordable. In fact, according to data just released by ATTOM Data Research, home affordability declined double digits during the 3rd quarter of this year in all five counties that make up the St Louis core market. As the info graphic below illustrates, the percentage of wages needed to buy a home have, depending upon county, increased about a third to almost half from the historical “norm”.
Least affordable ever…
Three of the five counties that make up the St Louis Core market (St Louis, St Louis City, and St Charles) hit the least affordable levels ever during 3rd quarter, with Franklin County hitting its lowest level last quarter and seeing a slight uptick in affordability during 3rd quarter. Conversely, Jefferson County saw its least affordable quarter back in 2007.
Most affordable ever…
We have to take a quick stroll down memory lane to visit when homes were most affordable in the St Louis area. Franklin County had its most affordable quarter just back in 2020, St Louis County was back in 2013, Jefferson and St Charles 2012 and the City of St Louis had its most affordable quarter over 14 years ago in 2009.
St Louis Home Affordability – 3rd Quarter 2023
(click on image below for full infographic showing all info)
Interest rates for a 30 year fixed-rate mortgage hit 7.49% today as reported by Mortgage News Daily, marking the highest rate we’ve seen on this type of mortgage in over 20 years. The MND chart below only goes back to 2009 but the bottom chart, from the St Louis Fed Reserve goes all the way back to 1971. As the charts show, the last time mortgage interest rates were at these levels was over 20 years ago in late 2000.
Mortgage Interest Rates (MND Chart)
(click on chart for live, interactive chart)
Mortgage Interest Rates – 1971-Present – 30 Year Fixed-Rate
With changing regulations, subdivision restrictions, municipal ordinances, state and federal laws, landlords certainly have a lot to keep up with today to make sure they stay compliant in their rental business. I’ve been in the business over 40 years, have an interest-and a fair understanding of- laws that affect real estate, yet still find it challenging to stay updated. Given this, I can only imagine the challenge faced by someone with a full-time career who also owns rental properties as an investment. Perhaps, this might be a compelling reason to consider hiring a professional property manager for your rentals. However, that decision brings its own complexities, which I’ll delve into in a future article.
A recurring issue for landlords, which prompts many questions from agents in our firm, clients, and other landlords, revolves around service animals. The question is usually framed something like, “I don’t want any pets in my rental properties, so I have a strict no-pet policy but am I obligated to allow dogs or other pets if the tenant claims it’s a ‘service animal’?” Before I go further, let me remind you, I am not an attorney, this isn’t legal advice—in fact, it’s not advice at all. I’m merely sharing what I’ve learned on the topic to heighten awareness of the issue and to encourage those that are not familiar with it to learn what they need to learn or to seek out proper legal guidance to avoid problems.
There were 788 homes and condominiums “flipped” during the second quarter of this year in the St Louis M.S.A., according to data just released by ATTOM Data Solutions. As the infographic below illustrates, these flips represent 8.7% of all sales during the quarter, a decrease of 23.9% from the prior quarter and a decline of over 22% from a year ago.
St Louis Home Flipping Report Q2 2023
(click on infographic to see complete report including prices and profits)
The St Louis Real Estate Market Report for August 2023 is below and combines data for the City and County of St Louis.  This data is presented by MORE, REALTORS, recognized as a leading authority in St Louis real estate market intelligence.  We invite you to dive deeper into our comprehensive demographic, which also sheds light on the St Charles, Jefferson and Franklin County markets as well by tapping on the image below.
Navigating the St Louis property landscape requires precision…
In the current property climate, likened to a complex chess match, the price for ill-informed decisions can be high. A limited inventory of homes coupled with a surge of enthusiastic buyers has intensified competition, sometimes leading to overvaluation of properties. While there’s no harm in paying a premium for a home, it’s essential that this decision is backed by concrete data and the right motivations.
Smart decision-making hinges on reliable data and a knowledgeable real estate professional to interpret it. At MORE, REALTORS our pride lies in our team’s expertise to steer both buyers and sellers through the intricacies of the current market with confidence.
Our commitment is to curate and disseminate prime market intelligence, empowering our agents and clientele to make enlightened choices. While no data set is infallible, striving for excellence ensures that our decisions are grounded.
Isn’t this data accessible to all REALTORS¬Æ?
It’s a common assumption that every agent, particularly those that are REALTORS possesses identical data. Taking St. Louis as a case in point, all REALTORS¬Æ can tap into the extensive MARIS MLS system. ¬†However, mere access doesn’t cut it. Think of it as the web: the real test lies in sifting out credible information.
Many agents rely on generic data handed down to them. In contrast, our agents utilize advanced software to tailor-make reports for individual clients. They also meticulously vet the data for discrepancies, emphasizing our commitment to ensuring that you receive nothing but the most reliable insights, even when sourced from a reputable origin like ours.”
There were 3,950 building permits issued for new single-family homes in the St Louis area during the 12-month period ended July 31, 2023.  This represents a decrease of 13.38% from the prior 12-month period, during which 4,560 permits were issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA).   All seven of the counties covered in the report saw a decline in building permits from the previous period.
According to a recent survey by the Pew Research Center, 57% of Americans say they would prefer living in a community where the houses are larger and farther apart even though schools, stores and restaurants are several miles away.  This is down from 60% when the same survey was done in 2021 and up from 53% from the 2019 Survey.
As I’ve previously discussed, the National Association of REALTORS¬Æ (NAR) is grappling with a myriad of challenges. These range from multiple class-action lawsuits to scrutiny from the Department of Justice (DOJ). This past week, the organization faced two more setbacks.
In another blow to NAR yesterday, the United States Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit overturned a lower court’s dismissal of a lawsuit. This lawsuit was filed by Top Agent Network, Inc., accusing NAR of violating the Sherman Antitrust Act through its “MLS Clear Cooperation Policy.”
Indeed, it’s been a challenging week for NAR, and it’s only Tuesday.”
Last month, city of St Louis mayor, Tishaura Jones, signed into law a new ordinance which provides “access to legal representation for tenants facing eviction or equivalent proceedings”. Surprisingly, it does not appear that the tenant needs to show a final hardship or need for “full legal representation” to be provided at no cost as the bill defines a “covered individual” as “any residential tenant who occupies a dwelling located within the City under a claim of legal right, other than the legal property owner of the dwelling.” Another interesting thing in the ordinance is that it appears to include legal representation for not only in the case of an eviction but also in the case of a non-renewal of a lease as Section Four of the ordinance (General Provisions of Right To Counsel for Tenants In Covered Proceedings) states “A covered individual may access legal representation as provided in this ordinance as soon as a landlord provides notice to terminate or not renew a tenancy, or as soon thereafter as is practicable.”
Then, according to reports, yesterday, St. Louis Aldermanic President Megan Green announced that legislation was being drafted to require landlords in the City of St Louis to provide contact information as part of the City’s occupancy permit process. Aldermanic President Green stated “It will help the city better keep track of who is owning certain properties so if there’s issues with properties there’s a local agent requirement, instead of trying to track down a random person registered to an LLC, which is often a challenge,” Landlords will also be required to report the rental amount they are charging according to Green.
Green also announced that the Board of Aldermen plan to consider a “tenants bill of rights” as well.
As the chart below illustrates, mortgage interest rates on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage hit 7.125% yesterday, the highest rate since April 5, 2002 when the rates were at 7.13%.
If you go back far enough in history, you’ll feel better about todays’ rates…
There is probably very little comfort in this for current home buyers but while we are experiencing the highest mortgage rates in over two decades, if we go back a couple of more decades or so in history we’ll see the current rates aren’t so bad. As the bottom chart below illustrates, over the 52-year period depicted on the chart, about 55% of the time mortgage interest rates were higher than they are now. If you’re in your 20’s or 30’s you likely don’t care and still think the rates suck since they are about double what they have been since you have paid attention to them. If you’re a baby-boomer like me, it’s a walk down memory lane LOL.
Below is the St Louis Real Estate Market Report for July 2023 for the City and County of St Louis combined from MORE, REALTORS®, one of the most trusted sources for St Louis real estate market data and information. You can access the full infographic, containing data for St Charles, Jefferson and Franklin Counties as well by clicking on the image below.
The current St Louis real estate market leaves little room for errors…
The real estate market today is like a tough game where making wrong decisions based on poor information can cost you. With few homes listed and many eager buyers, there’s a rush to outbid others, leading some people to pay more than a home’s true value. It’s okay to pay a bit extra if you’re doing it for the right reasons and based on solid facts.
To make smart choices, you need accurate information and a great real estate agent who knows how to use it. I’m proud that our team at MORE, REALTORS® is comprised of such experts who can guide buyers and sellers to make rewarding decisions in this tricky market.
We work hard to gather and share the best market information to help our agents and clients make informed decisions. While no information is 100% perfect, getting as close to that as possible can help you make smarter choices.
Don’t all REALTORS® have this data?
You might think all agents have the same information, especially those under the REALTORS® banner. In St. Louis, for example, every REALTOR® can access the same vast data through the MARIS MLS system. But simply having access isn’t enough. It’s like the internet: the challenge is finding trustworthy information.
A lot of agents use general data given to them by others. Our agents, however, use special software to customize reports for their clients. They also double-check the information to spot any errors. This shows how serious they are about making sure you get only the best, even when the data comes from a trusted source like ours.
As the chart below illustrates, since returning to 7% around the third week in May, the interest rate has pretty well stayed at the 7% level for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage with the rates for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage about 1/2% better.
Historically-speaking, it’s not that bad….
This won’t necessarily make you feel better if you are a home buyer today but, if we look at the bigger picture (like the bottom chart that goes back to 1971) we’ll see that our current mortgage interest rates are not as bad as they seem, historically speaking. . In fact, over the 52-year period depicted on the chart, about 60% of the time mortgage interest rates were higher than they are now. If you’re in your 20’s or 30’s you likely don’t care and still think the rates suck since they are about double what they have been since you have paid attention to them. If you’re a baby-boomer like me, it’s a walk down memory lane LOL.
According to a study released earlier this year by WalletHub, Missouri property tax rates are the 29th lowest in the U.S. To determine the tax rates for this list, WalletHub took the median property tax payment for each state and divided it by the median property value to determine the effective tax rate. For Missouri, the median home price was $171,800 and median property tax was $1,676 resulting in an effective tax rate of 0.98%. Hawaii was the state with the lowest tax rate coming in at a scant 0.29% and New Jersey the highest at 2.47%.
WalletHub also compared “Blue States” with “Red States” and, as the infographic at the bottom shows, found that Red States impose lower real estate property taxes than Blue States.
There were 4,017 building permits issued for new single-family homes in the St Louis area during the 12-month period ended June 30, 2023. This represents a decrease of 11.05% from the prior 12-month period, during which 4,516 permits were issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA). Six of the seven counties covered in the report saw a decline in building permits from the previous period, with the City of St Louis and Lincoln County experiencing double-digit declines.
According to a newly released report by Lending Tree, St Louis is the third-best metro area in the U.S. for homeownership. The report ranks homeownership in metro areas based upon the Median ratio of housing costs to household income for owner-occupied homes.
In Ridgefield, Connecticut you only have a 1 in 510 chance of being a victim of crime, according to recent FBI data. This makes Ridgefield, CT the safest city in the U.S.! This is based upon the crime rate for crimes of arson, burglary, larceny-theft, motor vehicle theft, murder, rape, armed robbery, and aggravated assault for cities with a population of at least 25,000 people. As the map below shows, the St Louis metro area has two cities that made the list, Ballwin, Missouri (#41) and Edwardsville, Illinois (#33).
Below is the St Louis Real Estate Market Report for June 2023 for the City and County of St Louis combined from St Louis Real Estate Search (the Official site). You can access the full infographic, containing data for St Charles, Jefferson and Franklin Counties as well by clicking on the image below.
In the relentless tug-of-war that characterizes today’s real estate market, it’s imperative not to base your choices on misguided data!
The present property market leaves little room for errors, thanks to a deficit of listings and aggressive buyer interest. A combination of these factors has sparked not just bidding contests, but “conditions wars”, making the process exceedingly tough for many. To outshine the competition, buyers often eliminate contingencies from their bids and stretch their financial limits. Frequently, they’re ready to pay a premium beyond the property’s actual worth. As I elaborated in an earlier article, “Are Today’s Homebuyers Exorbitantly Overpaying and Setting Themselves Up for Regret?“, this strategy can be valid, as long as it’s backed by well-informed reasoning.
In order to make such informed decisions, one needs reliable data and a seasoned, professional real estate agent capable of dissecting that data and tailoring it to your specific circumstances. This is what makes me incredibly proud of our team at MORE, REALTORS®. Our representatives are experienced professionals adept at steering both buyers and sellers towards a rewarding outcome amidst the complex dynamics of the current market.
To assist our representatives and clientele, I devote substantial time to accumulating, examining, and disseminating market intelligence and data. My goal is to offer the most exact data possible, enabling shrewd, educated decision-making. Although no data set can claim absolute precision, inching as close to perfection as we can substantially boosts the probability of making prudent decisions.
Doesn’t every agent have the same data at their disposal?
It’s a reasonable assumption that all agents, particularly those affiliated with REALTORS®, can access the same information. In our region, every REALTOR® can indeed tap into the broadest and most detailed reservoir of data for the St. Louis residential real estate market — MARIS, the REALTOR® Multiple Listing System (MLS). However, merely gaining entry to this database is just the initial step. It’s similar to the internet: although nearly any data you desire is available online, the real test is in knowing where to look and identifying the most credible sources. This same notion applies to the property market data present in the MLS.
While most agents aren’t data enthusiasts and usually rely on consolidated data shared by others, our agents, to some degree, follow a similar pattern. Yet, they stand out due to their proficiency in setting parameters and producing bespoke reports for their clients using our exclusive software. Additionally, they don’t merely accept the data we deliver — they scrutinize it, cross-check it, and pinpoint any discrepancies they come across. This degree of dedication, though humbling, reflects their commitment to precision, even when dealing with data from a dependable source like our firm..
So far this year, up until June 30, there have been 1,973 properties with foreclosure filings in the St. Louis MSA, according to the U.S. Foreclosure Market Report by ATTOM Data. This marks a 5% increase in St. Louis foreclosures compared to the same period last year, a surge of 119% from 2021, and a 5% uptick from 2020.
Now, let’s turn our attention to the counties in Illinois with the most significant increases in foreclosures: Macoupin and Bond…
As depicted in the table below, Macoupin County in Illinois experienced a 63% rise in foreclosure activity this year compared to last, and Bond County saw a similar upward trend with an increase of 60%.
On the other hand, let’s check out the Missouri counties of Jefferson and Warren, where we’ve seen the largest decreases in foreclosures…
The table below reveals that both Jefferson and Warren Counties in Missouri enjoyed a 50% reduction in foreclosure activity this year compared to the previous year.”
Every month Fannie Mae surveys consumers to gauge their sentiment toward whether its a good time to buy or sell a home and publishes the result in their Home Purchase Sentiment Index® (HPSI). In the most recent HPSI report, 78% of the people surveyed said they felt now was a bad time to buy a home, this is a decline from 80% in May. Conversely, 22% of consumers think now is a good time to buy a home up from 19% the month before. Interestingly enough, everyone had an opinion as the percentage of those that did not dropped to 0%, the first time it’s hit zero in the history of the survey.
Still a good time to sell..
Now is a good time to sell according to 64% of the consumers surveyed, which is down from 65% the month before and 36% think it’s a bad time to sell, up from 34% the month before.
For the 12-month period ended June 20, 2023, there were 23,074 homes sold in the St Louis 5-county core market which, as the STL Market Report below (available exclusively from MORE, REALTORS®) shows, is nearly a 20% decline in home sales from the the prior 12-month period when there were nearly 29,000 homes sold. The median price of homes sold during the most recent 12-month period was $270,000, an increase of 5.47% from the prior 12-month period.
St Louis home sales trend continues to fall….
Below the market report is a STL Market Chart showing (also available exclusively from MORE, REALTORS®) the 12-month home sales and home price trend for the St Louis 5-County core market for the past 10 years. The green line on the chart depicts the 12-month sales trend for each month for the past 10-years revealing a decline in the St Louis home sales trend for the past 12-months. The 12-month home sales trend in St Louis is now at the lowest levelsince February 2015.
St Louis home price trend falling as well….
The red line on the chart depicts the median price per square foot St Louis homes sold at for the 12-month period ending in the month shown. Home prices are seasonal and fluctuate every year, through good markets and bad markets, peaking in early summer and hitting a low in during winter. St Louis home prices peaked in June at $192 per square foot, an increase of just 1.6% from June of last year. In comparison, the price increase from June 2022 to June 2023 was 11.2%.
There were 3,820 building permits issued for new single-family homes in the St Louis area during the 12-month period ended May 31, 2023. This represents a decrease of 17.28% from the prior 12-month period, during which 4,618 permits were issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA). All seven counties covered in the report saw a decline in building permits from the previous period, with all but one of them experiencing double-digit declines.
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