By Dennis Norman, on June 14th, 2010
Dennis Norman
Will the Bears or Bulls prevail in 2010?
As the real estate market is beginning to show signs that we are “bottoming out” and that the down-slide is leveling off the discussion has become what the rest of 2010 holds in store. Some say we are entering a Bull market and expect prices to increase from the depressed levels they have reached citing the greatly increased affordability of homes and record low interest rates; others say we are entering a Bear market and that over-supply in the market, largely a result of record foreclosures, will Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on June 4th, 2010 Dennis Norman
A report released by CoreLogic showed the St. Louis metro area to have a foreclosure rate in April of 1.49 percent up slightly from March’s revised rate of 1.45 percent and an increase of 34.2 percent from the year prior when the rate was 1.11 percent.
The national foreclosure rate for April remains over twice the rate of St. Louis at 3.20 percent and was an increase of 30.1 percent from a year ago when the national foreclosure rate was 2.46 percent. For the State of Missouri the April foreclosure rate was 1.33 percent, a 30.4 Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on June 2nd, 2010 Dennis Norman
Today the National Association of REALTORS released it’s Pending Home Sales Index for April showing an increase of 6.0 percent in the index from March (seasonally adjusted) and a whopping 22.4 percent increase from April 2009. This comes on the heels of a 5.3 percent increase in March and an 8.3 percent increase in February. If these were pure “market-driven” sales this would be extremely exciting news and point toward a recovery in the real estate market. Unfortunately, everything I see points to this being driven primarily, if not purely, by the April 30th deadline to Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on June 1st, 2010 UPDATE- June 2, 2010: The National Association of REALTORS obtained answers from the Treasury Department on 3 common questions about HAFA:
agents are not permitted to rebate a portion of their commission to the buyer, sellers who are real estate agents must list their home for sale with another broker, not their own broker, and the incentive allowed for subordinate lien holders (6% of any one subordinate lien, up to a total of $6,000 for all subordinate liens) is a hard cap and may not be supplemented from any source.
Dennis Norman
In March I did an update on Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on June 1st, 2010 Dennis Norman
After seeing a spike in permits for new homes in St. Louis in March, with the exception of the City of St. Louis, all the St. Louis metro area counties saw a decline in new home permits in April, some rather steep based upon the latest data reported by the Home Builders Association of St. Louis (HBA).
Existing home sales data and mortgage application data have suggested that the April 30th deadline for the home-buyer tax credit caused an artificial surge in the housing market as buyers raced to beat the deadline to buy a home; Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on May 28th, 2010 Dennis Norman
Talk about the housing market not being able to catch a break….it seems every time something positive happens to give us a little encouragement, something else pops up to give the market another black eye. Here we are less than a month after the home-buyer tax credit deadline has passed and we are seeing reports of home prices dropping again as well as the volume of sales, and now, the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) is set to expire on May 31st. Of course Congress could extend the program prior to the expiration, but the word Continue Reading →
By Robert Fishel, on May 26th, 2010
The National Flood Insurance Program, known as the NFIP, lapsed March 28 this year and left many pending home sales in limbo.
Congress and President Barack Obama temporarily reinstated the program 18 days later on April 16 as part of a bill that also extended unemployment benefits and Medicare reimbursement for doctors. However, the temporary extension of the NFIP legislation will expire again on May 31.
The stage has now been set for another lapse in funding for the program just weeks before the mandatory June 30 closing deadline for buyers attempting to satisfy the requirements of the federal Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on May 26th, 2010 Dennis Norman
The U.S. Department of Commerce released a report showing the sale of New Homes in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 504,000, a 14.8 percent increase from the revised March rate of 439,000 and is 47.8 percent above a year ago. The inventory of new homes (seasonally adjusted) at the end of April is just 5.0 months a huge decline from just two months ago when it was 9.2 months.
My Mantra
As has been my long-running mantra, I don’t like “seasonally adjusted” numbers and “rate” of sales (nor does Standard & Poors, Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on May 25th, 2010 Dennis Norman
Today the S&P/Case-Shiller Index report for the first quarter of 2010 was released showing that the U.S. National Home Price Index fell 3.2 percent in the first quarter of 2010, but remains above it’s level from a year-earlier.
In March, 13 of the 20 MSA’s covered by the Case-Shiller report, as well as both the 10-city and 20-city composites, were down for the month however both the composites as well as 10 of the 20 MSA’s showed year-over-year gains. The report cites the end of the tax incentives and the increasing foreclosure rate as reasons the Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on May 24th, 2010 New Survey Finds 76 Percent of Consumers now Believe Renting to Be a Better Option Over Homeownership
Advantages Cited Include Flexibility to Move to a Different Location with New Job Opportunities
Dennis Norman
Last month I did a post addressing housing affordability, the cost of renting versus owning a home, and whether the real estate market over the past couple of years was causing the idea of home ownership as the “Great American Dream to “lose some of it’s sizzle?
For this reason I found a survey, conducted by Harris Interactive and commissioned by the National Apartment Association, Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on May 24th, 2010 Dennis Norman
Sales increased for second consecutive month-
With the home-buyer tax credits ending April 30th, it’s not surprising that we saw an increase of home sales in March, and now in April, as buyers rushed to buy before the deadline to have a congract of April 30, 2010. According to the latest report from the National Association of REALTORS(R), existing home sales in the US in April increased 7.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted-annual rate of 5.77 million units in April from a revised level of 5.36 million units in March, and increased 22.8 percent from a year Continue Reading →
By Robert Fishel, on May 19th, 2010 It’s all about Europe debt crisis…
Trading action in the mortgage markets have been and continue to be influenced by the ongoing concern over Europe’s debt crisis. This uncertainty has overshadowed a growing amount of data flow from our own economy that is signaling or own recovery. This uncertainty continues to drive capital into dollar denominated assets. The FHA To Reduce Allowable Seller Concessions this Summer/ Is the Housing Market Recovering for Real…
The percentage sellers can take from the sales price of a home to fund closing costs is being cut from 6% to 3%. According to an announcement Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on May 14th, 2010 Dennis Norman
Homeowners looking to upgrade or sell their home this spring should realize that not all remodeling and renovation projects will yield a full return on their investment, the president of the Appraisal Institute said today.
“When it comes to home improvement projects, especially in today’s economy, not every renovation or remodeling effort will pay off when the owner sells their home,” said Appraisal Institute President Leslie Sellers, MAI, SRA. “Consumers need to be aware that cost does not necessarily equal value.”
For consumers looking to upgrade and possibly sell their houses this spring, Sellers has put together Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on May 13th, 2010 Dennis Norman
In an effort to “support overall market stability and reinforce the importance of borrowers working with their lenders when they have difficulty paying their mortgages”, Fannie Mae has eased their policies with regard to the eligibility of borrowers to obtain a new mortgage loan after having a short-sale or deed-in-lieu of foreclosure. The “waiting period” that someone must wait before getting a new mortgage after a short-sale or deed-in-lieu has been shortened in certain situations.
Changes to the Waiting Period After a Short-Sale or Deed-in-Lieu of Foreclosure:
Deed-In-Lieu of Foreclosure Current waiting period – 4 years Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on May 12th, 2010 Dennis Norman
According to a report issued by the National Association of REALTORS, a growing number of metropolitan areas are experiencing price gains from a year ago, while most states have seen healthy gains in home sales from the first quarter of 2009.
Here in St. Louis, the median home price for first quarter was $116,100, a 15.1 percent increase from a year ago when the median price was $100,900, however an 8.4 percent decrease from the 4th quarter of 2009 when the median home price for the St. Louis area was $126,800. State-wide, the median home price Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on May 10th, 2010 Dennis Norman
Consistent with the report on mortgage delinquencies from LPS that I wrote about last week, today TransUnion released it’s report on mortgage delinquencies showing they fell 1.74 percent in the first quarter of this year, which is the first quarterly decline since 2006. This is good news, however, not to rain on the parade, but we do need to remember that the 4th quarter of 2009 had a record-setting mortgage delinquency rate so to have the rate for the following quarter drop simply means, if you want to do the glass half-empty thing, this quarter didn’t Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on May 7th, 2010 Dennis Norman
The St. Louis real estate market picked up a little steam in the first quarter of this year with an increase in the number of homes sold over the prior quarter, a reduction in the months-supply of homes for sale and a sharp increasing in pending sales. The homebuyer tax credit with it’s deadline to enter into contract to buy a home of April 30th helped fuel the increase in pending sales no doubt, but hopefully that wasn’t the only impetus.
Here’s a county by county look at the St. Louis real estate market for the first Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on May 4th, 2010 Dennis Norman
Today the National Association of REALTORS released it’s Pending Home Sales Index for March showing an increase of 5.3 percent in the index from February (seasonally adjusted) and a whopping 21.1 percent increase from March 2009. This follows an 8.3 percent increase in February so it is definitely creating a nice trend that makes me somewhat optimistic. We should remember though, in March and April we are expecting to see home sales spike as buyers rush to buy before the April 30th deadline to have a home under contract to qualify for the homebuyer tax credit.
Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on May 3rd, 2010 Dennis Norman
Last October I wrote about an effort by the Missouri Association of REALTORS (MAR) to protect Missouri homeowners from facing double taxation through a real estate transfer tax by backing an effort to amend the Missouri Constitution to prohibit such a tax. To get the issue on November’s ballot, petitions with signatures from a requisite number of Missouri voters needed to be submitted to the Secretary of State by yesterday.
Today, the Vote YES to Stop Double Taxation Committee, announced that on Sunday it turned in petitions, signed by “tens of thousands of registered voters”, to the Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on May 3rd, 2010 61 Percent of Those Looking for or Considering Buying a Home Had No Plans to Use the Tax Credit
Dennis Norman
According to a survey from Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate, the majority of people looking for, or considering buying, a home had no plans to take advantage of the First-Time or Move-Up/Repeat Home Buyer Tax Credits.
The survey, which was conducted online during the last week of February 2010, was designed to identify factors affecting today’s home buying decisions. Respondents were people from across the country who were searching for a new home, saving up to Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on April 30th, 2010 Dennis Norman
Although 2010 is a non-reassessment year, property owners in St. Louis County who disagree with the Assessor’s opinion of the value of their property, have the option to exercise their right to appeal that valuation to the St. Louis County Board of Equalization.
Missouri state law requires the Assessor to determine a property’s fair market value as of January 1 of the reassessment year, which is every odd numbered year, such as 2009 and 2011. Since values are established for a two-year time period, appellants need to be aware that the market conditions of January 1, 2009 Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on April 29th, 2010 RealtyTrac® released its U.S. Foreclosure Market Report™ for the first quarter of 2010, which shows foreclosure filings — default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions — were reported on 932,234 U.S. properties during the first quarter of 2010, an increase of 16 percent from the first quarter of 2009 (which, I should remind you, was up 24 percent from the first quarter of 2008).
According to the report, the 20 metro areas with the highest rates of foreclosures were still contained to four states:
California – 10 of the top 20 metro foreclosure rates Florida – 7 of the top Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on April 29th, 2010 Dennis Norman
According to a report issued by the U.S. Census Bureau earlier this week, the percentage of Americans that own a home in the U.S. in the first quarter of 2010 dropped to 67.1 percent, the lowest rate of homeownership since the same quarter of 2000. The homeownership rate for 4th quarter 2009 was 67.2 percent, the low for 2009.
REGIONAL HOMEOWNERSHIP:
The Midwest Region has the highest rate of homeownership, as of the 1st quarter of 2010, at 70.9 percent with the South region not far behind at 69.2 percent. The Northeast homeownership rate was 64.4 Continue Reading →
By Robert Fishel, on April 28th, 2010
Realtors, home buyers and sellers are rushing to complete sales agreements before the tax credit for home purchases expires this week; home buyers must have a deal by April 30 and close by June 30 to qualify for a tax break up to $8,000 for first-time home buyers and $6,500 for those moving to a different residence. The Treasury Department and the real estate industry have termed the program a success, helping people buy homes. However, many tax experts say it has been singularly cost-ineffective: most of the $12.6 billion in credits through end of February was collected by Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on April 27th, 2010
Dennis Norman
This morning the S&P/Case-Shiller Index report for February was released showing that, for the first time since December, 2006, the annual rates of change for their two composite home-price indices were positive. The 10-City Composite is up 1.4 percent from a year before and the 20-City Composite is up 0.6 percent from the same time last year. Unfortunately, 11 of the 20 cities included in the 20-City Composite had declines from the prior year, meaning that this positive bit of news is not “market-wide” but is the result of some metros with stronger markets.
Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on April 26th, 2010 Dennis Norman
Report Cautions That Shadow Inventory and End of Tax Credit Program May Result in Further Declines – Predicts a 3.01 Percent Home Price Decline in St. Louis In Next 12 Months. A report released today by First American CoreLogic shows that national home prices increased 0.3 percent in February 2010 compared to February 2009 and the home price index for St. Louis increased 1.50 percent in February 2010 compared to February 2009
On a month-over-month basis, the national average home price index fell by 2.0 percent in February 2010 compared to January 2010, which was Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on April 26th, 2010 Dennis Norman
In a report just issued by Radarlogic there is some good news for the housing industry as in the report Michael Feder, President and CEO of Radar Logic, states “the evidence continues to support the view that housing has stabilized and is in the early stages of recovery.” However, the report also reminds us that RealtyTrac reported that foreclosure filings set a record in March, with filings reported on 367,056 properties, the “highest monthly total since RealtyTrac began issuing its report in January 2005. The report indicates an increasing concern about the threat that foreclosures pose Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on April 24th, 2010 Dennis Norman
Century 21 Real Estate LLC announced the results of its First-Time Home Buyers and Sellers Survey, which captured and compared the opinions of prospective home buyers and sellers who either purchased or sold their first home within the past year or are planning to buy or sell their first home within the next year.
More than 80 percent of first-time home buyers and sellers feel the current housing market is more affordable today than this time last year, despite the fact that 40 percent of all respondents are more worried about the economy compared to this Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on April 23rd, 2010 Dennis Norman
The U.S. Department of Commerce released a report showing the sale of New Homes in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 411,000, a 26.9 percent increase from the revised February rate of 324,000 and is 23.8 percent above a year ago. The inventory of new homes (seasonally adjusted) at the end of March is 6.7 months a huge decline from February’s 9.2 month supply.
My Mantra
As has been my long-running mantra, I don’t like “seasonally adjusted” numbers and “rate” of sales (nor does Standard & Poors, publisher of the Case/Shiller Index, now Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on April 22nd, 2010 Dennis Norman
According to the latest report from the National Association of REALTORS(R), existing home sales in the US in March increased 6.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted-annual rate of 5.35 million units in March from a revised level of 5.01 million units in February, and increased 16.1 percent from a year ago when the rate was 4.61 million units (seasonally adjusted).
St. Louis Shows Strong Against Other Metros –
NAR publishes existing home sales for 20 major metropolitan areas of the U.S. which showed the St. Louis Real Estate Market in a pretty positive light. St. Louis Continue Reading →
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