Mortgage delinquencies in September increased to 2.10 percent of all mortgages, a 2.9 percent increase from the month before when delinquencies were at 2.04 percent but a decrease of over 33 percent from a year ago when the rate was 3.14 percent. The mortgage delinquency rate is something I pay close attention to because it is the “leading indicator” of foreclosures and foreclosures and REO’s are one of the major hurdles to a recovery in the housing market. Once we see delinquency rates decline, we’ll see the impact of foreclosures and REO’s lessen on the housing market and give it a chance to move into a recovery.
The coming months will tell us if September is a blip or a reversal of the trend…
“While this is only one month of data, we have not seen so many increases in default rates in about a year or more,” says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee for S&P Indices. “For most of the past three years, consumer credit default rates have been declining across both loan types and regions. September’s report was the first time we saw increases in four of five regions, three of four loan types and the composite, which rose from 2.04% to 2.10%. Bank cards rose to 5.36% in September from 5.26% in August, which is a bit of a concern. First and second mortgage default rates also rose during the month. This is the first time we have seen the rates go up for first mortgages since November 2010. Looking at the regions, New York saw the largest increase, moving from 1.80% to 2.01%. Given the fragile state of both the economy and consumer confidence can, we will have to closely monitor these data over the next few months to determine if September was just a temporary blip or the reversal of the recent trend.”
| S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices
National Indices |
|||||
| Index | September 2011 Index Level | August 2011
Index Levels |
September 2010
Index Levels |
||
| Composite | 2.10 | 2.04 | 3.14 | ||
| First Mortgage | 1.99 | 1.92 | 3.02 | ||
| Second Mortgage | 1.32 | 1.27 | 2.14 | ||
| Bank Card | 5.36 | 5.26 | 7.04 | ||
| Auto Loans | 1.29 | 1.31 | 2.04 | ||
Source: S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices
Data through September 2011
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