The St. Louis Real Estate Market Bubble and Burst; St. Louis County hurt the worst in the area

Dennis Norman

Dennis Norman

Statistics and reports are flying at us from every direction about the real estate market nowadays.  Some reports say we have hit bottom, some even say the housing market has started a recovery others say worse times are ahead.  Since I don’t think anyone  can really tell us what the future has in store for the housing market I thought now may be a good time to look at history…at least short term history,  to see where things stand at this point.  Along the way we may see a trend or perhaps even feel like we can hazard a guess as to where things are headed in the short term, at least in the St. Louis housing market.

Since many analysts, including those at the National Association of REALTORS(R) use 2001 as a “base” year frequently for the housing market, I guess because it was a market that proceed the “boom” (or bubble, your pick) and was sort of a “normal” year in terms of market conditions.  I figured if it’s good enough for real analysts it’s good enough for me so I have used date for the St Louis real estate and housing market from 2001 in my comparison with where we stand now.

In looking at the data, I broke it out by the city of St. Louis and then St. Louis, St. Charles, Jefferson and Franklin counties since each market varies.  

St Louis median home prices 2001 vs 2009

The first thing I looked at was home prices and found that   when comparing current home prices to those from 2001 the St. Louis market overall saw an  average increase in median home prices of 16.68 percent for the period or 2.09 percent per year.  Not pretty, but at least homes have increased in value during this period.  The local market that fared the best during this period was St. Charles County with a 23.0 percent increase in median home prices for the 8-year period, followed by Franklin County with a 22.12 percent increase, St. Louis city with a 18.53 percent increase,Jefferson County with a 17.9 percent increase and finally at the bottom of the list, St. Louis County with an increase of 1.86 percent for the period.

St Louis median home prices 2001 - 2009
Chart-St Louis median home prices 2001 vs 2009
(Source of Data – MARIS)

St Louis number of homes sold 2001 vs 2009

The next thing I looked at were the number of St Louis area homes sold in 2001 versus that last 12 months and found that for the overall St Louis market there were 24,375 homes sold in 2001 and 19,758 in the past 12 months for a decrease of almost 19 percent.  The market that fared the best was the city of St Louis with a decrease in sales of only 0.27 percent, followed by Franklin County witha  decrease of 14.55 percent, Jefferson County at 18.48 percent, St. Charles County at 18.52 percent and St Louis County at 23.64 percent.  Clearly the housing market in St. Louis county is taking the biggest beating of the local market areas.

St Louis Homes sold 2001 and 2009St Louis number of homes sold 2001 vs 2009
(Source of Data – MARIS)

St Louis Average time to sell a home 2001 vs 2009

Finally, the last thing I looked at was how long it took to sell those homes.  Overall, in the St. Louis market in 2001 it took an average of 62.2 days in 2001 to sell a home and 99 days for the homes sold in the past 12 months for an increase of 59.16 percent.  For time to sell a home, Franklin County has done the best with an increase of 23.36 percent in time to sell, followed by Jefferson County at 59.02 percent, St. Charles County at 69.81 percent, the City of St. Louis at 85.11 percent and finally, once again bringing up the rear, St. Louis County with a whopping 106.98 percent increase.

 St Louis Housing Market Days on Market to sell in 2001 and 2009St Louis Average time to sell a home 2001 vs 2009
(Source of Data – MARIS)

 So what does all of this say about the St. Louis housing market? Well, I guess for starters, St. Louis as a whole has not fared too bad with regard to home appreciation during this eight-year period I reviewed, but at 16.68 percent appreciation for the period we are running a little behind the U.S. as a whole which experienced 20 percent appreciation during the period.  Within our St. Louis market St. Charles County and Franklin County both performed better than the U.S. as a whole and the City of St. Louis and Jefferson County didn’t fall too far behind.  Unfortunately for St. Louis County the same is not true as home prices in the U.S. as a whole did almost 11 times better during the period. 

The “expansion” areas, St. Charles, Jefferson and Franklin counties, all seem to have done better riding the boom up and now down than St. Louis City and particularly St. Louis County.  Perhaps it is because of newer housing stock, more development and population growth.  Ah, population growth, I think that is key (along with jobs, of course).  When looking at population growth in the St. Louis area it quickly becomes apparent that the county losing population is also the one that hasn’t done as well with regard to home prices, St.  Louis County.  From 2001 through 2008 (the latest census data available) every county I reviewed for this post had population growth, even in the double digits for St. Charles County with almost 18 percent growth) with the exception of St. Louis county which lost almost 2.5 percent of it’s population in that 7 year period.

Going forward I would think St. Louis County is going to probably lag behind the other St. Louis area counties in their recovery unless something is done to stimulate some population growth within the County.  Ditto for the city of St. Louis but, since the city has already lost significant population in the prior couple of decades, I think to a lessor extent.

St Louis Metro area population growth from 2001 to 2008St Louis Area Population Change 2001 to 2008
(Source of Data – US Census Bureau)

Print Friendly, PDF & Email

25 comments to The St. Louis Real Estate Market Bubble and Burst; St. Louis County hurt the worst in the area

  • … [Trackback]

    […] There you can find 83419 more Information on that Topic: […]

  • … [Trackback]

    […] Find More on on that Topic: […]

  • … [Trackback]

    […] Read More here to that Topic: […]

  • I think this is among the most important info for
    me. And i am glad reading your article. But wanna remark on few general things,
    The website style is perfect, the articles
    is really great : D. Good job, cheers

  • I loved as much as you’ll receive carried out right here.
    The sketch is attractive, your authored subject matter stylish.
    nonetheless, you command get bought an edginess over that you wish be delivering the following.
    unwell unquestionably come further formerly again since exactly
    the same nearly very often inside case you shield this increase.

  • Greetings! I’ve been reading your site for a long time now and finally got
    the bravery to go ahead and give you a shout out from Kingwood Tx!

    Just wanted to tell you keep up the fantastic work!

  • It’s hard to come by knowledgeable people in this particular topic, but you seem
    like you know what you’re talking about! Thanks

  • Very nice article, totally what I was looking for.

  • … [Trackback]

    […] Find More on that Topic: […]

  • Excellent goods from you, man. I have be aware your
    stuff prior to and you’re simply extremely magnificent.

    I actually like what you have obtained right here, really like what you are
    stating and the way in which you are saying it.
    You make it entertaining and you continue to care for to keep it sensible.
    I cant wait to read much more from you. This is really
    a great website.

  • … [Trackback]

    […] Info on that Topic: […]

  • … [Trackback]

    […] Info on that Topic: […]

  • It’s remarkable to pay a visit this site and reading the views of all colleagues
    about this post, while I am also keen of getting knowledge.

  • I think everything wrote made a bunch of sense. However, what about
    this? suppose you were to write a awesome headline? I mean, I don’t
    wish to tell you how to run your website, but suppose
    you added something that grabbed people’s attention? I mean The St.
    Louis Real Estate Market Bubble and Burst; St.
    Louis County hurt the worst in the area is kinda plain. You ought to peek at Yahoo’s
    front page and see how they create news headlines to grab viewers
    interested. You might add a video or a pic or two to get people interested about what you’ve written. In my opinion, it might bring your posts a little bit more interesting.

  • … [Trackback]

    […] There you can find 9848 additional Info on that Topic: […]

  • That is a great tip particularly to those fresh to the blogosphere. Short but very precise info… Many thanks for sharing this one. A must read article!

  • … [Trackback]

    […] Find More Information here to that Topic: […]

  • Way cool! Some extremely valid points! I appreciate you penning this article and the rest of the website is really

  • Do you have any video of that? I’d care to find out more details.

  • Hey I know this is off topic but I was wondering if you
    knew of any widgets I could add to my blog that automatically tweet
    my newest twitter updates. I’ve been looking for a plug-in like this for quite some
    time and was hoping maybe you would have some experience with something like this.
    Please let me know if you run into anything. I truly enjoy reading your blog
    and I look forward to your new updates.

  • Wow cuz this is great work! Congrats and keep it up.|

  • If some one wishes to be updated with hottest technologies after that he must be go to see this web site and
    be up to date every day.

  • This is a topic that’s close to my heart… Cheers! Exactly
    where are your contact details though?

  • Please let me know if you’re looking for a writer for your weblog.
    You have some really good articles and I feel I would be a good
    asset. If you ever want to take some of the load off, I’d
    love to write some articles for your blog in exchange for a link
    back to mine. Please send me an email if interested. Kudos!

Leave a Reply

You can use these HTML tags

<a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <s> <strike> <strong>