New Home Construction On the Rise In St Charles and Jefferson Counties

There were 4,4,83 building permits issued for new single-family homes in the St Louis area during April, an increase of 4.28% from a year ago when there were 4,299 permits issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA).  However, the increase in new home construction activity was not shared equally around the St Louis area and, in fact, really only favored St Charles County and Jefferson County again.

Of the seven counties reported on by the St Louis HBA, 5  saw a decline in building permits from a year ago (the same 5 counties as last month) and, like last month, Lincoln County saw the largest decline at over 15%, and St Charles County was the big winner again where the number of new home building permits in March increased nearly 20% from the same month last year.

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St Louis New Home Building Permits – April 2020

St Louis New Home Building Permits - April 2020

 

 

St Louis New Home Construction Declines In March In 5 Counties But On The Rise In 2

There were 4,506 building permits issued for new single-family homes in the St Louis area during March, an increase of 4.55% from a year ago when there were 4,310 permits issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA).  However, the increase in new home construction activity was not shared equally around the St Louis area and, in fact, really only favored St Charles County and Jefferson County.

Of the seven counties reported on by the St Louis HBA, 5 saw a decline in building permits from a year ago with Lincoln County seeing the biggest loss at over 25%, and St Charles County was the big winner where the number of new home building permits in March increased nearly 25% from the same month last year.

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St Louis New Home Building Permits – March 2020

St Louis New Home Building Permits - March 2020

 

 

St Louis Home Sales Continue In Spite of COVID-19 Albeit at a lower level

As the COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic continues to keep many of us confined to our homes unless we need to go out for an essential service which, fortunately, the department of Homeland Security includes real estate in the definition, it is, of course, taking its toll on the St Louis real estate market.  As would be expected during a time like this, would-be homebuyers who have had their jobs or businesses impacted as a result of COVID-19 have pulled out of the market for now as have some folks who were considering a move purely for convenience or some other reason they feel will wait.

However, having said that, there still appear to be many serious homebuyers in the current market that want or need, to buy now.  This is evidenced by the most recent data I pulled below which shows new contracts on listings for the most recent 7 day period that have had contracts reported to the MLS.  So, to be clear, the “sales” I counted are residential listings that actually went under contract during the period,

As the table below shows, there were 994 new contracts on residential listings in the St Louis MSA during the past 7 days, a decline of 32% from the same time period a year ago.  There were 715 new contracts on residential listings in the St Louis 5-County Core market during the same period, a decline of 35% from the same period a year ago.

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St Louis New Contracts On Residential Listings For The 7 Day Period of 3/26 – 4/02

St Louis New Contracts On Residential Listings For The 7 Day Period of 3/26 - 4/02

COVID-19 has led to different methods of selling homes…

Today, real estate companies, like other businesses are trying to do business virtually and incorporating technology into their business more than ever before.  While some were already doing this, at least to some extent, it’s something that is new for many traditional “brick and mortar” type businesses.  (WARNING- SHAMELESS PLUG COMING) Doing business virtually isn’t anything new to our firm, MORE, REALTORS, or our agents as we have incorporated this into our business model for well over a decade.   It has caused us to switch into high gear to complete enhancements to our DOHR™ (Digital Open House Registration, U.S. Patent Pending) which include a totally virtual open house experience, a virtual showing experience as well as a hosted virtual tour experience. These are all things that will allow us to serve our seller clients by exposing their homes to the market, showing them to potential buyers while also protecting them and their families from exposure to the COVID-19 threat.

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New Sales Of Residential Listings In St Louis In Past 7 Days Down Just 14 Percent From Year Ago

As all of us continue to deal with a much different lifestyle as a result of the coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19) I am closely monitoring the St Louis real estate market to help get the most accurate information possible to our agents, clients, and consumers to help them make informed decisions about their real estate transactions.

With this in mind, I took a look at new contracts on listings for the past 7 days, so in other words, homes that actually went under contract during the period, but this time, I wanted to drill down deeper than I did a few days ago when I reported new contract activity.  This time I looked at just new sales of residential listings (homes, condos, villas, etc) rather than all property types in the MLS as other property types, such as commercial, land, and farms, for example, could be reacting differently.

As the table below shows, there were 1,142 new contracts on residential listings in the St Louis MSA during the past 7 days, a decline of just 14% from the same time period a year ago.  There were 836 new contracts on residential listings in the St Louis 5-County Core market during the same period, a decline of only 13% from the same period a year ago.

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St Louis New Contracts On Residential Listings For The Past 7 Days

St Louis New Contracts On Residential Listings For The Past 7 Days

A slower pace and different methods of selling homes…

As the data shows, COVID-19 is definitely having an effect on the St Louis real estate market in terms of a lower number of sales and, depending on how things go with containing the virus may bring sales down lower, but for now, the sales activity has been only modestly impacted.  Granted, with the threat of COVID-19  many changes are being implemented into the process but thus far everyone in the industry is working together well to take the necessary precautions to address the health concerns while still allowing people to conduct business.  For example, as much as can be done virtually or electronically is being done.

This is something our firm, MORE, REALTORS, has incorporated into our business model for well over a decade so for us and our agents, its a familiar and comfortable way for us to do business.  It has caused us to switch into high gear to complete enhancements to our DOHR™ (Digital Open House Registration, U.S. Patent Pending) which include a totally virtual open house experience, a virtual showing experience as well as a hosted virtual tour experience. These are all things that will allow us to serve our seller clients by exposing their homes to the market, showing them to potential buyers while also protecting them and their families from exposure to the COVID-19 threat.

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Over Sixteen Hundred Listings Went Under Contract In Past Week In St Louis area MLS

As I mentioned in my article yesterday about the effect of the coronavirus on the St Louis real estate market, for those homebuyers in a position to buy a home, there will be some good opportunities presented. Apparently, there are buyers out there that perhaps feel the same way or, they at least are not uncomfortable with buying now as, in the past 7 days, 1,670 listings in MARIS, the regional MLS that serves the St Louis area as well as some additional areas outside the metro area, went under contract.  When pulling data from our database for this, I confirmed that prior to the listing’s status changing to Active Under Contract or Pending (both are statuses indicating they are now under contract) the prior status in the MLS was Active thereby verifying these are “new” sales.

The 1,670 sales in the past 7 days is just sligthly lower than the 1,835 listings that went under contract during the same period a year ago.

Now, if the President or the Governor put us under a “Shelter in Place” order or something similar that effectively shuts down everything, that will pretty well put a bullet in new home sales for a while.  Depending on which “latest report” you believe, that either will or won’t happen.

Stay safe and healthy!

 

The Effect of Coronavirus (COVID-19) On The St Louis Real Estate Market

While we deal with the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic practicing social-distancing, shutting down events, public gatherings and the like, we are still trying to go on with our lives at the same time.  A big challenge to this is the unknown; not knowing how bad things will get, how long we may have to live like this, etc.  Fortunately, for those of us in Missouri, at the time I’m writing this, we have just 41 confirmed cases putting Missouri at number 40 of the 50 states in terms of the number of cases.  Granted, once more people are tested, our position may raise, but hopefully, due to the swift action by our leaders and citizens here, it will not rise anywhere close to the levels we are seeing in some states, including our neighbor to the east, Illinois where there are 423 cases as of this morning.

What effect is the coronavirus having on St Louis real estate?  

Continue reading “The Effect of Coronavirus (COVID-19) On The St Louis Real Estate Market

Things to consider when buying a new home

Buying a new home can be a great experience but it can also be a daunting one as well.  For homeowners that have previously only purchased an existing home, they will quickly find the process is much different.  From the number of decisions that must be made, change orders and other financial surprises along the way, it can be a little overwhelming for a buyer.  Particularly one that went into the process ill prepared or without proper representation by a buyers agent that is experienced in new construction.

What you need to know BEFORE buying a new home…

For more complete information, you can find my complete new home buying report here but I have highlights of the report below:

Continue reading “Things to consider when buying a new home

St Louis New Home Construction Trend Cools Slight But Activity Increases in St Charles and Jefferson County

The new home construction trend in St. Louis during January slowed just a bit with a total of 4,426 new home permits being issued for the 12-month period ended January 31, 2020, a slight decline of about 1% from a year ago when there were 4,447 permits issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri.

As the table below shows, 5 of the 7 counties covered in the report saw a decline in new home permits from a year ago.  Two of the three counties with the most new home activity, St Charles County and Jefferson County, both saw double-digit increases in permit activity from the prior 12-month period.

St Louis New Home Building Permits – January 2020

St Louis New Home Building Permits - January 2020

 

New Homes Sales In 2019 Drop From Year Before In Midwest

There were 70,000 new homes sold in the Midwest Region of the United States during 2019, a decline of 7.2% from 2018 when there were 76,000 new homes sold, according to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau.

As the table below shows, there were 40,000 new homes for sale in the Mideast at the end of 2019, which translates into roughly a 7 month supply of new homes for sale.

New Homes Sold In Midwest – 2018-2019

(in thousands)

New Homes Sold In Midwest - 2018-2019

Jefferson County Zip 63048 Homes Sold The Fastest In The Past 30 Days

Homes that sold in the 63048 zip code in the last 30 days were on the market an average of just 30 days before selling, making this the fastest sold zip code in the St Louis MSA.  The 63048 zip code area in Jefferson County includes the cities of Pevely, Festus and Herculaneum.

Five of the top ten zip codes were in St Louis County, two in Jefferson County and one in the Counties of St Charles, St Louis City and Madison, Il.

St Louis Zip Codes Where Homes Sold The Fastest In Last 30 Days

(click on table for current, complete list)

Fastest Selling Zip Codes In St Louisa

Why Accurate Home Price And Sales Data Is Vital To Buyers and Sellers

I’ll concede the fact that not everyone is as much of a data geek as I am and, in fact, a more accurate statement would probably be that most people are not, including the majority of home buyers and sellers.    Sure, home buyers and sellers are interested in home prices and what the potential value of the home is they are looking to buy or sell, but most leave the real data analysis to their agent.  After all, part of being a professional real estate agent is knowing the market as well as knowing how to research the market and apply market data to their client’s situation.

However,  don’t assume all real estate agents are created equal in this regard and that they all know the market as well as they should or do the research they should.  There are many great agents that do these things very well but there are a bunch, probably an equal number, if not more, that don’t.  Even the agents that do it well are still limited to the data resources they have available to them.

The MLS is the best source of market data...

Continue reading “Why Accurate Home Price And Sales Data Is Vital To Buyers and Sellers

New Home Construction Trend In St Louis Remains Steady In October

New home construction in St. Louis during October held at about the same trend as September with 4,289 new home permits issued for the 12-month period ended October 31, 2019, a decline of 8.04% from a year ago when there were 4,664 permits issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri.  This is about the same as September when the 12-month trend was down 8.05% from the prior 12-month period.

As the table below shows, 4 of the 7 counties covered in the report saw a decline in new home permits from a year ago.  This is the same as last month, with the same four counties on the decline.  For the 9th month in a row, Franklin County suffered the biggest loss at 41.31%.  At the other end of the spectrum, St Charles County had the largest increase at 7.55% and took removed Warren County from the number one slot after Warren County had 9 consecutive months of the highest growth in permits.

St Louis New Home Building Permits – October 2019

St Louis New Home Building Permits - October 2019

 

Downward Trend In New Home Construction In St Louis Eases In September

New home construction in St. Louis continued its decline, although at a lower rate, with 4,286 new home permits issued for the 12-month period ended September 30, 2019, a decline of 8.05% from a year ago when there were 4,661 permits issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri.  This is an improvement from the 12-month period ended August 31, 2019, when the decline was nearly 10% from the year before (9.74%).

As the table below shows, 4 of the 7 counties covered in the report saw a decline in new home permits from a year ago.  Franklin County again suffered the biggest loss at 43.82% making it the 8th month in a row Franklin County has seen a loss.   At the other end of the spectrum, Warren County again had the largest increase at 22.22% and this marks the 9th month in a row of increases for the county.   For only the second time in the past 12-months, St Charles County saw an increase in new home permits issued during the period with a 3.79% increase.

St Louis New Home Building Permits – September 2019

St Louis New Home Building Permits - September 2019

 

New Home Construction Down From A Year Ago In 5 of 7 St Louis Area Counties

New home construction in St. Louis continues to decline with 4,244 new home permits issued in August 2019 for the St Louis area, a decline of 9.74% from a year ago when there were 4,702 permits issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri.

As the table below shows, 5 of the 7 counties covered in the report saw a decline in new home permits from a year ago.  Franklin County has suffered the biggest loss at 44.13% and Warren County has seen the largest increase at 15.57%.

St Louis New Home Building Permits – August 2019

St Louis New Home Building Permits - Aug 2019

 

Meth Labs and Real Estate

Yesterday, someone shared with me an article that appeared on CBS News online about a couple, Tyler and Elisha Hessel, that discovered the house they purchased had previously been the subject of a meth lab seizure.  The home, at 7218 Valley Drive in Barnhart, Missouri, was purchased by the Hessel’s in January of 2018.   According to the article, Elisha is expecting a baby and, earlier this year, the results of some standard pregnancy-related tests showed the baby tested positive for amphetamines.  This led to the Hessel’s discovering that the home they purchased was on a list of Meth Lab Seizures from a bust back on October 3, 2013.  The article goes on to state that the Hessel’s have been forced to move out of the home for health reasons and a Go Fund Me campaign has been set up for them at https://www.gofundme.com/f/support-tyler-and-elisha-hessel.

Meth Labs have been a real problem in Jefferson County

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Continue reading “Meth Labs and Real Estate

St Louis Home Sales Trend Falls In August

For the 5-county core St Louis housing market, there were 26.047 homes sold during the 12-month period ended August 31, 2019, a decline of 3% from the 12-month trend for the prior month. As the chart (a proprietary product developed by MORE, REALTORS to help keep its agents and clients on top of market conditions) below shows, there were 27,753 homes sold during the 12-month period ended August 31st of 2018, so the current period sales of 26,047 homes represents a 6.1% decrease from the same period a year ago.

St Louis 5-County Core Market – Home Sales Trend – Past 5 Years

(click on chart for live chart)

St Louis 5-County Core Market - Home Sales Trend - Past 5 Years©2019 MORE, REALTORS – all rights reserved

St Louis New Home Construction Slips Again In May

For the 12-month period ended May 31, 2019, there were building permits issued for 300 new homes in Jefferson County, a decline of nearly 26% from the prior 12-month period according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri.  For the same period, there were permits issued for 758 new homes in St Louis County, a decline of 23.50% from the prior 12-month period.

Warren County saw a double-digit percentage increase in building permits again this period, and the City of St Louis again had an increase.

St Louis New Home Building Permits – May 2019

St Louis New Home Building Permits - May 2019

St Louis Area New Home Construction Continues To Decline In Most Areas

For the 12-month period ended April 30, 2019, there were building permits issued for 757 new homes in St Louis County, a decline of 22.80% from the prior 12-month period, according to the latest data from the St Louis HBA.  As the table below shows, St Charles County saw a decline of 6.38% during the same period. In February of this year, only two counties showed a downward trend in building permits, but in March that grew to 4 counties and for April, 5 of the 7 counties we are reporting on, show a decline in new home building permits. Warren County continues to show growth and an upward trend in new home construction with an increase of 20.07% in building permits during the most recent 12-month period from the prior 12-month period.

St Louis New Home Building Permits – April 2019

St Louis New Home Building Permits - April 2019

New Home Construction Trending Downward in Over Half The St Louis Area Counties

For the 12-month period ended March 31, 2019, there were building permits issued for 748 new homes in St Louis County, a decline of 23.60% from the prior 12-month period, according to the latest data from the St Louis HBA.  As the table below shows, St Charles County saw a decline of 11.23% during the same period.  Last month, those were the only two counties showing a downward trend, but, this month, Franklin County and the City of St Louis have also seen new home construction trend downward. Warren County again showed the greatest upward trend in new home construction with an increase of 23.66% in building permits during the most recent 12-month period from the prior 12-month period.

St Louis New Home Building Permits – March 2019

St Louis New Home Building Permits - March 2019

New Home Construction Trend In St Louis Is Down In St Louis and St Charles Counties

For the 12-month period ended February 28, 2019, there were building permits issued for 785 new homes in St Louis County, a decline of 21.11% from the prior 12-month period, according to the latest data from the St Louis HBA.  As the table below shows, St Charles County saw a decline of 13.05% during the same period however the other counties reported on by the St Louis HBA are all showing increased new home building activity for the period.  From a percentage standpoint, Warren County saw the biggest increase at 30.04%.

St Louis New Home Building Permits – February 2019

St Louis New Home Building Permits - February 2019

Should you buy a new home directly from the builder?

Some new home buyers believe that if they buy a new home directly from the builder or the builder’s sales person, they will get a better price.  But is this true?  Do you get a better deal buying a new home directly from the builder?

First, we should address a “better deal” and what constitutes a good “deal”.  If it is strictly price, then, while I think it is somewhat short-sided on the part of the buyer and falls in that “penny-wise, dollar-foolish” category, in some instances, with some builders, the builder will save some cost by you buying from their agent.  This is the result of the builder having an agent that will get paid less commission that the builder would pay a buyer’s agent then if the builder chooses to pass that savings along to the buyer, rather than keep it, the buyer should receive a better price.  However, just like the possible savings motivated the buyer to deal directly with the builder, it is unrealistic to think that a builder is not going to feel the same and be motivated to have a better profit margin dealing directly with the buyer and instead would choose to forego the savings and give it to the buyer in the price. Plus, most builders appreciate and understand, the vital role a buyer’s agent plays in the transaction and wants to encourage agents to show and sell their homes, so they typically avoid doing things that look like they are trying to cut an agent out of a deal by dealing directly with the buyer.

Continue reading “Should you buy a new home directly from the builder?

St Louis New Home Construction Continues To Decline

There were 4,471 building permits issued for new homes in the St Louis area during the 12-month period ended January 31, 2019, a decline of 5.20% from the prior 12-month period when there were 4,716 permits issued, according to information just released by the Home Builders Association of St Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA).

As the table below shows, St Charles County continues to see the largest decline in new home construction with 1,489 new home permits issued in the most recent 12-month period, down 13.03% from the prior 12 month period. Four counties in the St Louis area have seen gains in permits, with Warren County being the big winner in terms of percentage increase with nearly a 30 percent increase in new home permits for the period!

St Louis New Home Building Permits Issued – Jan 2019

St Louis New Home Building Permits Issued - Jan 2019

 

St Louis Area New Home Construction In 2018 Declines

There were 4,140 building permits issued for new homes in the St Louis area during 2018, a decline of 3.16% from the year before when there were 4,275 permits issued, according to information just released by the Home Builders Association of St Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA).  The number of permits issued for new homes during 2018 was just slightly down from 2016.

As the table below shows, St Charles County has seen the largest decline in new home construction with 1,499 new home permits issued in 2018, down 12.85% from the year before and decline of 24.48% from 2016 when there were 1,985 permits issued.  Franklin County, Warren County and the city of St Louis all had significant double-digit gains in building permits issued during 2018 from the year before.

St Louis New Home Building Permits Issued – 2016-2018

St Louis New Home Building Permits Issued - 2016-2018

 

Houses and Condos for Christmas Presents?

Every year around this time is when many homeowners that have their homes listed for sale discuss with their agent whether they should just take their home or condo off the market as Christmas approaches, then come back on the market after the beginning of the new year.  Many homeowners that are thinking of selling contemplate the same thing trying to decide whether to come on the market before the holidays or wait until after.

It is a well-known fact this is a slower time of the year for the St Louis real estate market, but does that mean it’s so bad that you should remove your listing from the market and take a break?  Well, while a lot of people may decide to do this, often because they will have family and friends visiting or staying with them, one can make a decent argument for staying on the market around Christmas if it’s possible.

Homes and condos do sell during Christmas week…

To address the issue of whether it makes sense for a seller to stay on the market over Christmas, I pulled stats for Christmas week last year, to see how many homes and condos went under contract that week.  As the MORE, REALTORS® exclusive STL Market Reports™ table shows, there were 291 listings that went under contract Christmas week 2017 in the St Louis 5-County Core real estate market.

Continue reading “Houses and Condos for Christmas Presents?

Mortgage Delinquency Rate Falls To Lowest Level In More Than 12 Years

The overall mortgage delinquency rate in the U.S. fell in August to the lowest level in over 12 years, according to a report just released by CoreLogic.  According to the report, 4.2% of all St Louis home mortgages were 30+ days delinquent in August 2018, a decline of over 14% from a year ago when the rate was 4.9%.  During the same period, seriously delinquent mortgages, those that are 90+ days late, in St Louis dropped from 1.8% a year ago to 1.4% in August 2018, according to the report.

 

New Home Prices Have Increased At Higher Rate Than Overall Housing Market Over Past 15 Years

I had lunch yesterday with a long-time friend who is a St Louis home-builder who shared with me the continually rising costs of construction he faces.  Our conversation was consistent with conversations I’ve had with other builders as well, who cite a variety of things responsible for the ever-increasing costs of new home construction.  The areas most often mentioned relate to regulatory and compliance issues,  material prices as well as rising labor costs.  According to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), the average cost to build a new home has inreased 56% over the past 15 years.  According to the NAHB, over the past 15 years construction costs accounted for a median of 57% of the cost of a new home.

The gap between new home prices and existing home prices widens..

As the chart below illustrates, over the past 15 years, the median price of a new home has increased 68% while, as the bottom chart shows, the price of homes in the U.S. (according to the S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Index) has only increased 43.6% during the same period.  During the past 15 years, new home prices have increased 56% more than home prices overall.

Median Sales Price For New Homes Sold In The U.S. – Past 15 YearsMedian Sales Price For New Homes Sold In The U.S. - Past 15 Years
S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index – Past 15 Years
S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index - Past 15 Years

New Home Construction Trend In St Louis Flat Overall

There were 4,642 new home building permits issued for the 7 counties in the St Louis area covered by the St Louis HBA during the 12-month period ended August 31, 2018, just 2 more (0.04%) than the 4,640 that were issued during the prior 12-month period, according to data from the St Louis HBA.

This would indicate that perhaps the new home building market has peaked for the time being which, given that this is the best report for this 12-month period since August 2007 when there were 5,706 permits issued in the prior 12 months, it’s not bad.

St Charles County’s Loss is Franklin County’s gain…

As the table below, which shows the building permit activity by county, illustrates, St Charles County has seen nearly a 14% decline in building permits in the past 12-months from the prior period, while Franklin County has seen nearly a 42% increase.  Granted, 32.9% of all the building permits issued in the 7-county area were issued in St Charles County, but a year ago 38.3% of all the permits were issued in St Charles County.

New Home Building Permits – St Louis Area

New Home Building Permits - St Louis Area

 

 

St Louis Home Sales Trend Remains Flat While Prices Rise

St Louis home sales remain consistent but fairly flat with 27,636 homes sold during the past 12 months, just slightly more than the 27,525 homes sold in the prior 12 month period, for the 5-County core St Louis market.  As the table below shows, while home sales only increased by 0.40% during the period for the core St Louis market (city of St Louis and counties of St Louis, St Charles, Jefferson, and Franklin) the median price of homes sold during the period increased 5.46% from a median price of $184,900 to $195,00.  There is a currently a 2.55 month supply of homes for sale and the median time a home has been for sale in this area is 68 days.

St Louis 5- County Core Market – Home Sales and Prices

(click on table for live report)

St Louis 5- County Core Market - Home Sales and Prices

St Louis City and County market about the same…

As the table below shows, the housing market in the city and county of St Louis is performing pretty much the same as for the larger 5-county area.  There were 16,828 homes sold in the past 12-months in this area, which is just 16 home sales more than the prior 12-month period when there were 16,812 homes sold.  The median price of homes sold in the most recent 12 month period was $185,000, a 5.71% increase from the prior 12-month period when the median home price was $175,000.  There is a 2.46 month supply of homes for sale and the median time a home has been on the market for sale is 63 days.

St Louis City and County – Home Sales and Prices

(click on table for live report)

St Louis City and County - Home Sales and Prices

 

New Home Sales In Midwest Up This Year Over 14 Percent From Same Time Last Year

The sale of new homes in the Midwest region of the U.S. is on the rise according to a report just released by the Census Bureau.  In July, new homes in the Midwest sold at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 78,000 homes, an increase of 9.9% from June and an 18.2% increase from July 2017 when the rates were 66,000 homes.  Year-to-date this year, though the end of July, there have been 50,000 actual new homes sold in the Midwest region, an increase of 14.2% from the same time last year when there had been 44,000 new homes sold year-to-date.

On a national level, new home sales are not performing as well as the Midwest region, but are still performing well.  In July, new homes were sold at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 627,000 homes, a decrease of 1.7% from the month before and an increase of 12.8% from July 2017. Year-to-date, through the end of July, there have been 401,000 new homes sold nationwide, an increase of 7.2% from the same time last year when there were 374,000 new homes sold year-to-date.

 

St Louis Home Sales Trending Downward Slightly

On a national level, there have been reports lately of slowing home sales evidenced by both new home sales and existing home sales falling in June, housing affordability issues and the like.  Here in St Louis, the real estate market continues to perform well, however, indicators are showing a slight downward trend in St Louis home sales.

As the chart below illustrates, there have been 14,268 homes sold through the end of June in the St Louis metro area, a decline of 4.4% from the same period a year ago when there were 14,925 homes sold in St Louis.  The darker green line on the chart indicates the total sales for the past 12 months and is a good indicator of where things are headed.  As you can see, there was a pretty good jump in this line 2 years ago with a steady rise but it has fluctuated around the same level for the past 8 or 9 months.  Last month, as well as in two of the prior 5 months, it showed a downward trend.

St Louis MSA YTD & Past 12 Month Home Sales – June 2016 – June 2018

(Click on chart for live data)
St Louis MSA YTD & Past 12 Month Home Sales - June 2016 - June 2018