Speaking yesterday at a forum at a meeting of the National Association of REALTORS (NAR), several industry “experts” had reasonably optimistic opinions of the housing market and expect home sales to continue on an uptrend through 2012.
Among the experts at the forum was, of course, Lawrence Yun, the chief economist for NAR, who said he felt existing home sales would improve gradually, but unevenly. “If we just hold at the first-quarter sales pace of 5.1 million (home sales), sales this year would rise 4 percent, but the remainder of the year looks better,” Yun said. “We expect 5.3 million existing-home sales this year, up from 4.9 million in 2010, with additional gains in 2012 to about 5.6 million — that’s a sustainable level given the size of our population.” Continue reading “Housing and Economic Forecasts Point to Rising Activity and Flat Home Prices“
Today’s existing home salesreport from the National Association of REALTORS® shows mixed signals for the St. Louis Real Estate market as our rate of existing home sales is down 8.6 percent from a year ago, significantly higher than the 2.8 decline for home sales nationwide, however, on a positive note, St. Louis home prices were up 8.2 percent in February from a year ago, the highest increase of the 20 major metro markets covered by the report and much better than the 5.2 percent DECREASE in home prices for the U.S. as a whole!
The National Association of REALTORS Pending Home Sales Index for January shows a decrease of 2.8 percent in the index from the month before (seasonally adjusted), and a 1.5 percent decrease from a year ago. The good news however is that the St. Louis area (five-county area including city of St. Louis and counties of St. Louis, St. Charles, Jefferson and Franklin) saw a 1.51 percent in pending home sales in January from the month before and a 3.30 percent increase from a year ago. Continue reading “St. Louis area pending homes sales in January increase“
Today’s existing home salesreport from the National Association of REALTORS(R) shows St. Louis area existing home sales for December were 3.1 percent higher than a year ago and St. Louis area home prices in December were 7.8 percent higher than the year before.
Nationally, existing home sales in December were at at a seasonally adjusted-annual rate of 5.28 million units which is an increase of 12.3 percent from November and is a decline of 2.9 percent from a year ago. Preliminary numbers for 2010 show 4,908,000 existing homes sold which is a decrease of 4.8 percent from 2009 when there were 5,156,000 existing homes sold, and is just slightly lower than 2008 when there were 4,913,000 homes sold. Continue reading “St. Louis housing market finishes 2010 on an upward trend“
At the National Association of REALTORS® Conference and Expo in New Orleans today, “a slow, steady recovery” was predicted for the housing market despite ongoing challenges.
Beginning last November I have written several articles about the “sugar-rush” effect of tax credits and other stimulus on the housing market and voicing my concern that these things are short lived (like a sugar rush on a child) and after the sugar wears off there is a crash….Well, as expected, here it is…
Today’s existing home salesreport from theNational Association of REALTORS(R) shows existing home sales in St. Louis for July decreased 36.1 percent from a year ago. For the US as a whole, existing home sales in July were at at a seasonally adjusted-annual rate of 3.83 million units which is a decline of 27.2 percent from June and is a decline of 25.5 percent from a year ago. Continue reading “Home Sales Plummet in July to Record Low“
NAR Pending Home Sales Index at Lowest Level Since Index Began in 2001
At dropping 30 percent in May as a result of the rush to buy a home before the April 30th tax credit deadline, the National Association of REALTORSPending Home Sales Index for June shows a further decline of 2.6 percent in the index in June (seasonally adjusted) which is 18.6 percent below June 2009. While the decrease in home sales was expected, I’m a little surprised we are running so far behind last year (which, might I remind you, wasn’t that great of year for home sales?). Continue reading “Pending Home Sales Hit a new Record-Low in June“
Last month I said that I expected to see some elevated numbers in the existing home sales report for May and June since this report would reflect the actual closing of the home purchases from buyers that raced to buy before the April 30th home-buyer tax credit deadline. Even though Congress has extended the deadline to close on these purchases until August 31st, the majority of the tax-credit induced sales will have closed by June 30th and therefore be reflected in today’s report which I would say has happened.
Today’s existing home salesreport from theNational Association of REALTORS(R) shows existing home sales in June were at at a seasonally adjusted-annual rate of 5.37 million units which is a decline of 5.1 percent from May but is 9.8 percent higher than a year ago..
Prices on the rise for fourth consecutive month –
The median home price in the U.S. in June was $183,700 an increase of 5.2 percent from May and an increase of 1.0 percent from a year ago when the median price was $181,800.
Inventory levels increase-
Inventories decreased in May after being on the rise three consecutive months but were back on the rise again in June as the number of existing homes for sale in June finally increased to 3,992,000, an increase of 2.5 percent from May and an increase of 4.7 percent from a year ago. The number of months “supply” this inventory represented in June, based upon current sales levels, increased to 8.9 months making it the highest level since August 2009.
Pittsburgh, PA pushed Portland out of the first spot where it reigned for three months with the largest year-over-year increase in existing home sales in June with Pittsburgh seeing an increase of 23.9 percent in sales from a year ago.
Boston, Massachusetts spent it’s second month at number two for June with a 23.7 percent increase in existing home sales from a year ago.
New York, NY was number three with a 21.0 percent increase in existing home sales from a year ago.
St. Louis led the way in price increases from a year ago, with June’s median home price of $161,500 representing a 9.9 percent increase from a year ago when the median price was $146,900.
San Diego, CA came in second for the second consecutive month with a median price of $397,600, a 8.4 percent increase from a year ago when it was $366,900.
Boston, MA came in third with a median price of $391,600, a 8.2 percent increases from a year ago when it was $361,800.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist,said the market shows uncharacteristic yet understandable swings as buyers responded to the tax credits. “June home sales still reflect a tax credit impact with some sales not closed due to delays, which will show up in the next two months,” he said. “Broadly speaking, sales closed after the home buyer tax credit will be significantly lower compared to the credit-induced spring surge. Only when jobs are created at a sufficient pace will home sales return to sustainable healthy levels.” (hey, I’ve been saying this for months :)
I don’t like “seasonally adjusted rates of sales”:
If you have been reading my posts for a while you know by now I don’t like “seasonally adjusted” numbers when artificial stimuli, such as homebuyer tax-credits, can cause an unseasonal spike in sales activity. I much prefer to see the actual numbers and try to garner from them what is going on in the housing market.
The following are the ACTUAL Existing Home sales reported by NAR without any adjustment or fluff:
There were 564,000 existing homes sold in June which is a 7.2 percent increase from May and a 8.3 percent increase from a year ago.
Below are highlights from each region:
Northeast – 103,000 homes sold in June, a whopping increase of 30.4 percent from May and an increase of 14.4 percent from the year before.
Midwest – 131,000 homes sold in June, an increase of 0.8 percent from May and an increase of 9.2 percent from the year before.
South – 206,000 homes sold in June, an increase of 5.6 percent from May and an increase of 9.0 percent from the year before.
West – 124,000 homes sold in June, an increase of 1.6 percent from May and a increase of 1.6 percent from the year before.
Other highlights of the NAR Report:
Distressed sales accounted for 32 percent of all home sales in June, up from 31 percent in May.
First-Time homebuyers accounted for 43 percent of the home sales in June, down from 46 percent in May.
Investors were the buyers of 13 percent of the homes in June, down from 14 percent in May.
Repeat home buyers were responsible for approximately 44 percent of June’s sales up from 40 percent in May.
My Take On the Numbers:
We have clearly seen a boost to the housing market as a result of the home-buyer tax credit and continue to get a little support as the deals close. Unfortunately the economy still has major issues….Fannie Mae’s housing forecast in June took a sharp turn downward (which I will be writing about in the next day), unemployment increased today and there is still much political unrest in the country. I think the best we can hope for at this point is for some stabilization in the housing market which we are seeing some glimpses of. It will be quite a while before I will be using the “R” word though (recovery).
There was no question in my mind that home sales would plummet after the April 30th deadline to buy a home and qualify for the home-buyer tax credit passed, the only question was how bad? Today the National Association of REALTORS released it’s Pending Home Sales Index for May showing a decrease of 30.0 percent in the index from April (seasonally adjusted) and a 15.9 percent increase from May 2009. In my past articles I have spoke of a “sugar-rush” created in the market by the tax credits and the sudden slow-down after that wears off…we are now seeing this. Unfortunately the tax-credits could not ‘fix” the market, it was just a band-aid to spur some activity. The market won’t get fixed until the economy is in better shape; people have jobs and the foreclosure rate drops dramatically.
Here are highlights from the report:
May’s pending home sales index (seasonally adjusted) was 77.6 (the index is based upon 100.0 being equal to the average level of sales activity in 2001 which we could call the last “normal” year) which is the lowest level the index has hit since NAR began the index in 2001.
May’s not-seasonally adjusted index index was 89.0 a 30.3 percent decrease from April and a 15.6 percent decrease from a year ago.
All regions in the U.S. saw month-over-month and year-over-year declines in pending home sales.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said “Consumers are rational and they rushed to meet the tax credit eligibility deadline in April. The sharp decline in contract signings in May is a natural result with similar low levels of sales activity anticipated in June,” he said. “Surprisingly, though, some local markets such as Portland, Maine, and Jacksonville, Fla., actually experienced an increase in contract signings from a year ago without the tax credit.”
May and June Sales Expected to Remain Elevated as Buyers Rush to Close By June 30th Deadline for Tax Credits.
The deadline to buy a home and qualify for the home-buyer tax credit was April 30th so it’s not surprising we saw pending home-sales increase dramatically in March and April as buyers rushed to get “under-contract” before the April 30th deadline. For those home-buyers that were lucky enough to qualify for the home-buyer tax credit they have, unless Congress extends the deadline, until June 30, 2010 to close on the purchase of their home. Therefore, as I have said before, I fully expect to see “existing home sales” (a report that counts actual “closed” sales) elevated for May and June as these deals close.
Today’s existing home salesreport from theNational Association of REALTORS(R), as expected, shows strong sales for the month of May. Existing home sales in May were at at a seasonally adjusted-annual rate of 5.66 million units which is actually a decline of 2.2 percent from April but is still 19.2 percent higher than a year ago.
Prices on the rise for third consecutive month –
The median home price in the U.S. in May was $179,600 an increase of 4.2 percent from April and an increase of 2.7 percent from a year ago when the median price was $174,800.
Inventory levels rescind-
After increasing for four consecutive months, the number of existing homes for sale in May finally decreased to 3,892,000, a decrease of 3.4 percent from April and an increase of 1.1 percent from a year ago. The number of months “supply” this inventory represented in May, based upon current sales levels, decreased slightly to 8.3 months from 8.4 months in April and a 14.4 percent decrease from a year ago when there was a 9.7 month supply.
Portland, Oregon for the third consecutive month, saw the largest year-over-year increase in existing home sales in May with an increase of 40.6 percent in sales from a year ago.
Boston, Massachusetts went from number three last month to number two for May with a 36.2 percent increase in existing home sales from a year ago.
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania was number three with a 35.7 percent increase in existing home sales from a year ago.
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania led the way in price increases from a year ago, with May’s median home price of $265,700 representing a 28.5 percent increase from a year ago when the median price was $206,800.
San Diego, CA came in second with a median price of $391,400, a 18.2 percent increase from a year ago when it was $331,200.
Phoenix, Arizona came in third with a median price of $144,800, a 10.8 percent increases from a year ago when it was $130,700.
St. Louis saw an increase of 25.5 percent in existing home sales in May from a year ago and an increase of 6.5 percent in median home prices for the same period.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said he expects one more month of elevated home sales. “We are witnessing the ongoing effects of the home buyer tax credit, which we’ll also see in June real estate closings,” he said. “However, approximately 180,000 home buyers who signed a contract in good faith to receive the tax credit may not be able to finalize by the end of June due to delays in the mortgage process, particularly for short sales.”
I don’t like “seasonally adjusted rates of sales”:
If you have been reading my posts for a while you know by now I don’t like “seasonally adjusted” numbers (nor does Standard & Poors now either as I wrote about), particularly when artificial stimuli, such as homebuyer tax-credits, can cause an unseasonal spike in sales activity. I much prefer to see the actual numbers and try to garner from them what is going on in the housing market.
The following are the ACTUAL Existing Home sales reported by NAR without any adjustment or fluff:
There were 526,000 existing homes sold in May which is a 0.8 percent increase from April and a 17.7 percent increase from a year ago.
Below are highlights from each region:
Northeast – 79,000 homes sold in May, a decrease of 16.0 percent from April and an increase of 11.3 percent from the year before.
Midwest – 130,000 homes sold in May, an increase of 8.3 percent from April and an increase of 21.5 percent from the year before
South – 195,000 homes sold in May, an increase of 2.1 percent from April and an increase of 21.9 percent from the year before.
West – 122,000 homes sold in May, an increase of 4.3 percent from April and a increase of 11.9 percent from the year before.
Other highlights of the NAR Report:
Distressed sales accounted for 31 percent of all home sales in May, down from 33 percent in April.
First-Time homebuyers accounted for 46 percent of the home sales in May, down from 49 percent in April.
Investors were the buyers of 14 percent of the homes in May, down from 15 percent in April.
Repeat home buyers were responsible for approximately 40 percent of May’s sales up from April’s 36 percent..
My Take On the Numbers:
Last month I said I expected “Pending Home Sales” to drop significantly from April and I still do, and I expected to see an increased level of “Existing Home Sales”, “although not at as high of level as April” and that is exactly what we see here. That was the “low-hanging fruit” though, the easy one to call. The harder thing to predict is just how much will the pending home sales numbers for May be and how much will existing home sales drop after the tax-credit deals are all done in June? Unfortunately my guess for both is “rather significantly”.
Today the National Association of REALTORS released it’s Pending Home Sales Index for April showing an increase of 6.0 percent in the index from March (seasonally adjusted) and a whopping 22.4 percent increase from April 2009. This comes on the heels of a 5.3 percent increase in March and an 8.3 percent increase in February. If these were pure “market-driven” sales this would be extremely exciting news and point toward a recovery in the real estate market. Unfortunately, everything I see points to this being driven primarily, if not purely, by the April 30th deadline to enter into a contract to purchase a home to receive the home-buyer tax credit.
Here are highlights from the report:
April”s pending home sales index (seasonally adjusted) was 110.9 (the index is based upon 100.0 being equal to the average level of sales activity in 2001 which we could call the last “normal” year) which was a 6.0 percent increase in the index from March and an increase of 22.4 percent from the year before.
April’s not-seasonally adjusted index index was 133.5 a 11.0 percent increase from March and a 24.6 percent increase from a year ago.
The only region that saw a month-over-month decline in pending home sales (seasonally adjusted) was the South region, after having the largest month-over-month increase last month, it saw a decrease of 0.6 percent from March, but was still up 31.3 percent from a year ago.
The Northeast had the largest month-over-month increase in pending home sales (seasonally adjusted) with a 29.5 percent increase from March.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said this second round of surging sales from the tax credit extension looks as strong as the original tax credit. “There were concerns that only a small pool of buyers were left to take advantage of the tax credit extension. But evidently the tax stimulus, combined with improved consumer confidence and low mortgage interest rates, are contributing to surging sales,” he said. “The housing market has to get back on its own feet and now appears to be in a good position to return to sustainable levels even without government stimulus, provided the economy continues to add jobs.” NAR expects a net of 1 million additional jobs in the second half of this year and about 2 million in 2011.
With the home-buyer tax credits ending April 30th, it’s not surprising that we saw an increase of home sales in March, and now in April, as buyers rushed to buy before the deadline to have a congract of April 30, 2010. According to the latest report from the National Association of REALTORS(R), existing home sales in the US in April increased 7.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted-annual rate of 5.77 million units in April from a revised level of 5.36 million units in March, and increased 22.8 percent from a year ago when the rate was 4.70 million units (seasonally adjusted).
Prices on the rise for second consecutive month –
The median home price in the U.S. in April was $173,100 an increase of 2.1 percent from March’s $169,600 and an increase of 4.0 percent from a year ago when the median price was $166,500.
Inventories on the rise-
For the fourth consecutive month, the number of existing homes for sale in April increased bringing the total to 4,044,000, an increase of 11.5 percent from March and an increase of 2.7 percent from a year ago. The number of months “supply” this inventory represented in April, based upon current sales levels, increased to 8.4 months, up from 8.1 months in March but a 16.8 percent decrease from a year ago when there was a 10.1 month supply.
Portland, Oregon for the second consecutive month, saw the largest annual increase in existing home sales in April with an increase of 49.2 percent in sales from a year ago.
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania was number two with a 42.2 percent increase in existing home sales from a year ago.
Boston, Massachusetts was number three with a 41.8 percent increase in existing home sales from a year ago.
Indianapolis, Indiana led the way in price increases from a year ago, with April’s median home price of $124,600 representing a 17.1 percent increase from a year ago when the median price was $106,400.
Phoenix, Arizona came in second with a median price of $144,700, a 16.2 percent increase from a year ago when it was $124,500.
San Diego and Miami/Ft Lauderdale fell in behind Phoenix with annual median price increases of 15.4 percent, and 14.8 percent respectively.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the gain was widely anticipated. “The upswing in April existing-home sales was expected because of the tax credit inducement, and no doubt there will be some temporary fallback in the months immediately after it expires, but other factors also are supporting the market,” he said. “For people who were on the sidelines, there’s been a return of buyer confidence with stabilizing home prices, an improving economy and mortgage interest rates that remain historically low.”
I don’t like “seasonally adjusted rates of sales”:
If you have been reading my posts for a while you know by now I don’t like “seasonally adjusted” numbers (nor does Standard & Poors now either as I wrote about), particularly when artificial stimuli, such as homebuyer tax-credits, can cause an unseasonal spike in sales activity. I much prefer to see the actual numbers and try to garner from them what is going on in the housing market.
The following are the ACTUAL Existing Home sales reported by NAR without any adjustment or fluff:
There were 521,000 existing homes sold in April which is a 21.4 percent increase from March and a 26.2 percent increase from a year ago.
Below are highlights from each region:
Northeast – 94,000 homes sold in April, an increase of 40.3 percent from March and an increase of 42.4 percent from the year before.
Midwest – 120,000 homes sold in April, an increase of 21.2 percent from March and an increase of 33.3 percent from the year before
South – 191,000 homes sold in April, an increase of 19.4 percent from March and an increase of 26.5 percent from the year before.
West – 116,000 homes sold in April, an increase of 12.6 percent from March and a increase of 9.4 percent from the year before.
Other highlights of the NAR Report:
Distressed sales accounted for 33 percent of all home sales in April, down from 35 percent in March.
First-Time homebuyers accounted for 49 percent of the home sales in April, up from 44 percent in March.
Investors were the buyers of 15 percent of the homes in April, down from 19 percent in March.
Repeat home buyers were responsible for approximately 36 percent of April’s sales down from March’s 37 pecent..
My Take On the Numbers:
For the past two months I have said that I am encouraged by the sales numbers as I am again this month. However I continue to echo my caution that I’m confident this boost is artificial and has been brought on by the homebuyer tax credit program coming to an end. The spring season has brought more homes on the market thereby increasing inventory, but the months supply doesn’t look bad at 8.4 months….but remember, that is based on a “seasonally adjusted” sales rate of 5.77 million homes; a rate that cannot and will not be sustainable in my opinion.
I think in May we will see “Pending Home Sales” drop significantly from April but we will still see an increased level of “Existing Home Sales” (although not at as high of level as April) as NAR counts “closed home sales” in this data, and since people that went under contract to buy before the April 30th deadline have until July 31st to close the sale, we won’t see the full effect of no tax credits on existing home sales until August.
According to a report issued by the National Association of REALTORS, a growing number of metropolitan areas are experiencing price gains from a year ago, while most states have seen healthy gains in home sales from the first quarter of 2009.
Here in St. Louis, the median home price for first quarter was $116,100, a 15.1 percent increase from a year ago when the median price was $100,900, however an 8.4 percent decrease from the 4th quarter of 2009 when the median home price for the St. Louis area was $126,800. State-wide, the median home price in Missouri for first quarter was $100,800, an increase of 4.6 percent from a year ago when the median price for Missouri was $96,400, but a 17.9 percent decline from the 4th quarter of 2009 when the median home price was $122,800.
Highlights from the Metro report for the first quarter of 2010:
91 out of 152 metropolitan areas showed higher median existing single-family home prices in comparison with the first quarter of 2009, including 29 with double-digit increases; three were unchanged and 58 metros had price declines.
In the fourth quarter of 2009, 67 areas reported gains and 123 were down, while only 30 metro areas in third quarter of 2009 showed annual price increases.
The national median existing single-family price was fairly flat at $166,100, down 0.7 percent from the first quarter 2009 price of $167,300. The median is where half sold for more and half sold for less. Distressed homes, which typically are discounted by 15 percent relative to traditional homes, accounted for 36 percent of first quarter sales.
To see the complete report for all metro areas click here.
Highlights from the State report for the first quarter of 2010:
Total state existing-home sales, including single-family and condo, were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.14 million in the first quarter, down 14.0 percent from 5.97 million in the fourth quarter, 2009. However, first quarter sales remain 11.4 percent above the 4.61 million-unit level in the first quarter of 2009.
Sales increased from a year ago in 44 states and the District of Columbia; 31 states and D.C. saw double-digit gains while two were unchanged and four were down.
To see the complete report for all states click here.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said stabilizing home prices are encouraging. “This flattening in home prices is something we’ve been seeing in all of the home price measures lately, and quite clearly in this metro area price report,” he said. “The tax credit has been very effective in drawing down excess inventory, with about one million additional sales resulting directly from the stimulus.”
Today the National Association of REALTORS released it’s Pending Home Sales Index for March showing an increase of 5.3 percent in the index from February (seasonally adjusted) and a whopping 21.1 percent increase from March 2009. This follows an 8.3 percent increase in February so it is definitely creating a nice trend that makes me somewhat optimistic. We should remember though, in March and April we are expecting to see home sales spike as buyers rush to buy before the April 30th deadline to have a home under contract to qualify for the homebuyer tax credit.
Here are highlights from the report:
March”s pending home sales index (seasonally adjusted) was 102.9 (the index is based upon 100.0 being equal to the average level of sales activity in 2001 which we could call the last “normal” year) which was a 5.3 percent increase in the index from February and an increase of 21.1 percent from the year before.
March’s not-seasonally adjusted index index was at 118.4, a 32.9 percent increase from February and a 23.5 percent increase from a year ago.
The only region that saw a month-over-month decline in pending home sales (seasonally adjusted) was the Northeast region with a decrease of 3.3 percent from February.
The South had the largest month-over-month increase in pending home sales (seasonally adjusted) with a 12.7 percent increase from February, and also had the largest year-over-year increase as well with a 28.3 percent increase from March 2009.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said favorable affordability conditions have been working with the tax credit. “Clearly the home buyer tax credit has helped stabilize the market. In the months immediately following the expiration of the tax credit, we expect measurably lower sales,” he said. “Later in the second half of the year, and into 2011, home sales will likely become self-sustaining if the economy can add jobs at a respectable pace, and from a return of buyer demand as they see home values stabilizing.”
According to the latest report from the National Association of REALTORS(R), existing home sales in the US in March increased 6.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted-annual rate of 5.35 million units in March from a revised level of 5.01 million units in February, and increased 16.1 percent from a year ago when the rate was 4.61 million units (seasonally adjusted).
St. Louis Shows Strong Against Other Metros –
NAR publishes existing home sales for 20 major metropolitan areas of the U.S. which showed the St. Louis Real Estate Market in a pretty positive light. St. Louis ranked 2nd of the metro’s in terms of one-year median home price increase with an increase in March of 19.8 percent from a year ago. In terms of the increase in existing home sales in March from a year ago St. Louis came in fifth with a 25.6 percent increase.
Highlights from the report-
The median home price in the U.S. in March was $170,700 an increase of 3.7 percent from February’s $164,600 and an increase of 0.4 percent from a year ago when the median price was $170,000.
The inventory of existing homes for sale in March actually increased 1.5 percent from the month before but, due to the increased rate of home sales, the “months supply” of homes decreased from 8.5 months to 8.0 months in March representing a decline of 5.9 percent for the month and a decline of 15.8 percent from a year ago when there was 9.5 months supply of existing homes for sale.
Distressed sales accounted for 35 percent of all home sales in March, the same as February.
First-Time homebuyers accounted for 44 percent of the home sales in March, up from 42 percent in February.
Investors were the buyers of 19 percent of the homes in March, the same as February.
Repeat home buyers were responsible for approximately 37 percent of March’s sales down from February’s 39 pecent..
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said it is encouraging to see a broad home sales recovery in nearly every part of the country, with two important underlying trends. “Sales have been above year-ago levels for nine straight months, and inventory has trended down from year-ago levels for 20 months running,” he said. “The home buyer tax credit has been a resounding success as these underlying trends point to a broad stabilization in home prices. This is preserving perhaps $1 trillion in largely middle class housing wealth that may have been wiped out without the housing stimulus measure.”
My Take On the Numbers:
Last month I said that I was somewhat encouraged by the existing home sales for February and that I thought “the housing market, at least in many areas of the country, is toying with the bottom”. After seeing strong numbers in March I am again encouraged. I do think however we should all have “cautious optimism” as almost half of March’s home sales were first time home buyers who could be racing to beat the April 30th deadline to buy. My guess is we will see pretty good sales numbers in April as well, then the next couple of months beyond that will tell us if the market truly has any staying power or if it was just the “sugar-rush” of the tax-credits that boosted the market.
You can see the complete report and a more in-depth analysis here.
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Speaking yesterday at a forum at a meeting of the National Association of REALTORS (NAR), several industry “experts” had reasonably optimistic opinions of the housing market and expect home sales to continue on an uptrend through 2012.
