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Dennis Norman A report published by Lender Processing Services (LPS) analyzing homeowner’s performance on their mortgages as of August 2010 shows that mortgage delinquencies continue to decline however are still at very high levels versus historical norms. At the same time however, foreclosure starts continue to accelerate. Dennis Norman A report by CoreLogic shows that in June 2010 almost one in five (19.3 percent) of the home sales in St. Louis are distressed home sales, such as foreclosure or a short sale. The report cautions that recent data showing improvements in negative equity, serious mortgage delinquency and a decrease in market share of short-sales, has been distorted as a result of the short-term boost in the “non-distressed” housing market by the homebuyer tax credit program, which recently ended. Dennis Norman A report published by Lender Processing Services (LPS) analyzing homeowner’s performance on their mortgages as of July 2010 shows that mortgage delinquencies continue to decline however are still at very high levels versus historical norms. At the same time however, foreclosure starts have increased to the fourth highest level on record. Dennis Norman Just as we are talking more about home prices “stabilizing” there is yet another cause for concern as to just where the market is headed. Last week Celia Chen, senior director of the Moody’s Economy.com research staff, issued a report stating that the odds of a near-term “double-dip recession” have increased from about one in five to closer to in in four. Dennis Norman For some time now I’ve been saying the precursor to the housing market recovering is for the mortgage delinquency and foreclosure rates to fall from the present, near-record levels, down to closer to historical norms. The current mortgage loan delinquency report from TransUnion shows that, for the second consecutive quarter, things are headed the right direction. Granted the decline in loans that are 60 or more days past due declined only 1.48 percent to 6.67 percent but at least it is going the right diretion. The loan delinquency rate for the 2nd quarter of 6.67 percent Continue Reading → Dennis Norman A report published by Lender Processing Services (LPS) analyzing homeowner’s performance on their mortgages as of June 2010 shows some encouraging news; there are signs that the foreclosure and mortgage delinquency rates are stabilizing, albeit at very elevated levels. Dennis Norman A report released by CoreLogic showed the St. Louis metro area to have a foreclosure rate in June of 1.48 percent up slightly from May’s rate of 1.46 percent and an increase of 28.7 percent from the year prior when the rate was 1.15 percent. Dennis Norman Finally, some good news! This morning Standard & Poor’s released their S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Index for June showing that first-mortgage default rates declined 5 percent from the month before and were down 45.2 percent from a year ago. I have been saying for a while, we are not going to see any sort of sustainable recovery of the housing market until we see mortgage delinquency and default rates decline thereby bringing down the foreclosure rate and ultimately easing the downward pricing pressure on the housing market caused by foreclosures. Maybe, just maybe, this is the Continue Reading → Dennis Norman Last month I wrote about a new policy implemented by Fannie Mae that would “lock-out” borrowers from getting a Fannie-Mae insured loan for 7 years if they did a “strategic default” or otherwise did not act in good faith and were foreclosed upon. In a nut shell, the borrower that Fannie Mae is targeting here is the borrower that has the financial ability to make their payments, accept a loan modification or other “work-out” from Fannie Mae but instead chooses just to walk away from their home and letting the lender foreclose. In addition to locking Continue Reading → Dennis Norman For way too long I’ve been writing about record, or near- record, levels of foreclosures and mortgage delinquencies. My ongoing concern about this, in terms of the housing market, is that I just don’t see how we are going to have a sustainable recovery of the housing market while we have 1 in 8 homeowners with a mortgage in the U.S. currently either delinquent on their mortgage or in some stage of the foreclosure process. Lately there has appeared to be some leveling off of mortgage delinquencies and foreclosure growth is at a slowing rate, both Continue Reading → Dennis Norman Homeowners’ mortgage delinquency rates increased in May 2.3 percent from April rising to 9.2 percent of all mortgages being delinquent. This information comes from a report issued by LPS Applied Analytics, one of the largest mortgage servicers in the U.S. According to the report there are, as of May 31, 2010, 7.3 million home mortgages currently in some stage of delinquency. After seeing a couple of months of improvement there was a turn for the worse in May of the “deterioration ratio”, the reltionship between the number of loans going to a “worse” status for every Continue Reading → The U.S. Census Bureau and US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) issued a their report on New Residential Construction for May 2010 showing a decrease in building permits and a decrease in new home starts from April. The report shows the following: Building permits issued for single-family residences in May were at an annual rate of 438,000 which is 9.9 percent below the revised April rate of 486,000 and an increase of 3.1 percent from a year ago when the rate was 425,000. Housing starts for single-family residences in May were at an annual rate of 468,000 Continue Reading → Dennis Norman A report released by CoreLogic showed the St. Louis metro area to have a foreclosure rate in April of 1.49 percent up slightly from March’s revised rate of 1.45 percent and an increase of 34.2 percent from the year prior when the rate was 1.11 percent. The national foreclosure rate for April remains over twice the rate of St. Louis at 3.20 percent and was an increase of 30.1 percent from a year ago when the national foreclosure rate was 2.46 percent. For the State of Missouri the April foreclosure rate was 1.33 percent, a 30.4 Continue Reading → Dennis Norman I know it looks like I’m doing my second post today on the same topic, but I’m really not……my post earlier today was about the rate of mortgage delinquency, which can be defined as homeowners that are late, to varying degrees, on their house payments. This post is about mortgage default rates, which is homeowners that are over 90 days late on mortgage payments, have filed bankruptcy, are in foreclosure or on whom the lender has written off part or all of the balance of the loan. In other words these are the borrowers Continue Reading → 1st Quarter Delinquencies; Up? Down? He said – She Said… If you frequent this site, then you may recall that a little over a week ago (May 10th to be exact) I wrote a post that said the delinquency rate for homeowners mortgages had dropped in the first quarter of this year, the first drop since 2006. Now the post title says delinquencies have increased, so what gives? Well, for one thing, different sources of information. The “good” delinquency report came from TransUnion and they get their data by doing a “random sampling” of their database of 27 million Continue Reading → Dennis Norman Consistent with the report on mortgage delinquencies from LPS that I wrote about last week, today TransUnion released it’s report on mortgage delinquencies showing they fell 1.74 percent in the first quarter of this year, which is the first quarterly decline since 2006. This is good news, however, not to rain on the parade, but we do need to remember that the 4th quarter of 2009 had a record-setting mortgage delinquency rate so to have the rate for the following quarter drop simply means, if you want to do the glass half-empty thing, this quarter didn’t Continue Reading → Dennis Norman A report published by Lender Processing Services (LPS) analyzing homeowner’s performance on their mortgages as of March 2010 shows that, while foreclosure and mortgage delinquency rates are still near record levels, the pace may be slowing with fewer new loans becoming delinquent and an increase in the number of people bringing their loans current. Fewer Borrowers Are Going From Current To Delinquent – The dark blue line on the chart below represents the number of “new” delinquencies for each period, and as you can see, the number dropped sharply in March for people that moved Continue Reading → Dennis Norman A report released by CoreLogic showed the St. Louis metro area to have a foreclosure rate in March of 1.49 percent up slightly from February’s rate of 1.44 percent and an increase of 39.3 percent from the year prior when the rate was 1.07 percent. The national foreclosure rate for March remains over twice the rate of St. Louis at 3.23 percent and was an increase of 73.9 percent from a year ago when the national foreclosure rate was 2.32 percent. No End In Site Unfortunately, I don’t think we are going to see much, if Continue Reading → Dennis Norman A report published by Lender Processing Services (LPS) analyzing homeowner’s performance on their mortgages as of February 2010 has some data that is encouraging but that data is overshadowed by data that shows the problems int he U.S. housing market are far from over. Let’s start with the good news… Delinquencies on home mortgages declined in February by 1.45 percent from January and the percentage of loans that were 90 days late or more in February were at the lowest rate in 17 months. The decline in home loans that were 90+ days delinquent from December Continue Reading → Dennis Norman The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) released its report on the performance of commercial and multifamily mortgages in the fourth quarter of 2009. Their last report from a year ago showed that commercial and multifamily mortgages were among the best performing loans held by banks and thrifts. Now, a year later, the data still looks good and shows that commercial and multifamily mortgages continue to have the lowest charge off rate of all loan types at banks and thrifts and also perform better than their overall portfolios as well. This is good news for an already-struggling Continue Reading → Dennis Norman St. Louis Mortgage Delinquencies and St. Louis Foreclosure Rate hit Record Highs A report released by First American CoreLogic showed the St. Louis metro area to have a foreclosure rate in January of 1.42 percent up slightly from December’s rate of 1.36 percent and an increase of 46.39 percent from the year prior when the rate was 0.97 percent. The national foreclosure rate for January remains over twice the rate of St. Louis at 3.19 percent and was an increase of 60.3 percent from a year ago when the national Continue Reading → Over Fifteen Percent of Missouri Borrowers are Underwater-Another 5.6 Percent Are Almost Underwater Dennis Norman According to a report released today by First American CoreLogic more than 11.3 million U.S. mortgages, or 24 percent of all mortgaged properties, are in a negative equity position meaning the borrowers owe more on their mortgage than their home is worth as of December 31, 2009. There were approximately 600,000 more borrowers underwater on December 31, 2009 than just three months earlier. In addition, there were an additional 2.3 million mortgages approaching negative equity at the end of last year . Together, Continue Reading → Dennis Norman Deceleration in Rise of Mortgage Delinquencies Short Lived Back in July, 2009 when speaking in North Carolina President Barack Obama announced “we may be seeing the beginning of the end of the recession“. My thoughts then were that was very optimistic and I didn’t agree (for whatever that is worth). Since then some economists have announced the recession is officially over. Technically based upon a few bits of data the recession may be over, but for us real people that are actually living and functioning in this economy I don’t think it is over; at least not Continue Reading → Dennis Norman St. Louis ended 2009 With The Highest Foreclosure Rate and Mortgage Delinquency Rates On Record For the St. Louis Area According to date from First American CoreLogic, St Louis finished 2009 with 1.43 percent of the homes in St. Louis with a mortgage in some stage of the foreclosure process and 5.73 percent of the mortgages in St. Louis seriously delinquent (90+ days past due). The St. Louis area has seen increases in the foreclosure rate every month since August, 2008 and the the December 2009 rate is the highest rate recorded since First American Continue Reading → Dennis Norman In spite of what is being said in the press about the real estate market improving and the effectiveness of the government’s programs to help keep people in their homes, the rate of foreclosure just keeps increasing. A report released today by First American CoreLogic showed the St. Louis metro area to have a foreclosure rate of 1.43 percent up slightly from November’s rate of 1.35 percent and an increase of 66.67 percent from the year prior when the rate was 0.87 percent. The national foreclosure rate for December was again over double the rate Continue Reading → Dennis Norman Foreclosure rates in St. Louis increased for the month of October over the same period last year according to a report released by First American CoreLogic. The report showed the St. Louis metro area to have a foreclosure rate of 1.31 percent in October, up just slightly from September’s rate of 1.25 percent, but up 61.7 percent from a year ago when the rate was 0.81 percent. The national foreclosure rate for October was over double the rate of St. Louis at 3.02 percent and was an increase of 77.6 percent from a year ago Continue Reading → Dennis Norman For the first year or so of the real estate slump, it appeared to just be concentrated in the residential market, specifically homes and condos. However, over the past few months the attention has shifted more and more to the commerical and multi-family markets as well as the economy remains weak. The Mortgage Bankers Association released their Third Quarter 2009 Commercial and Multifamily Mortgage Delinquency Report showing that delinquency rates on loans in this sector continued to increase. Continue Reading → Missouri ranks 21st in delinquencies and 30th in foreclosures According to a report just issued by the Mortgage Bankers Association, the mortgage delinquency rate on one-to-four-unit residential properties in the U.S. rose to a new record rate of 9.64 percent. Here in Missouri, the delinquency rate is slightly lower at 9.41 percent. Included in the MBA’s report as a “delinquency” are loans that are at least one payment past due, but does NOT include loans somewhere in the process of foreclosure. At the end of third quarter 2.05 percent of mortgage loans in Missouri were in the foreclosure process. Therefore Continue Reading → Dennis Norman TransUnion released the results of its analysis of trends in the mortgage industry for the third quarter of 2009 and the associated impact on the U.S. consumer. Part of this report focused on delinquencies on mortgages and the rate of mortgage delinquency. The report showed that mortgage loan delinquency (the ratio of borrowers 60 or more days past due) increased for the eleventh straight quarter, hitting an all-time national average high of 6.25 percent for the third quarter of 2009, a 7.57 percent increase from the record-setting second quarter rate. Dennis Norman Foreclosure rates in St. Louis increased for the month of September over the same period last year according to a report released by First American CoreLogic. The report showed the St. Louis metro area to have a foreclosure rate of 1.26 percent in September, up just slightly from August’s rate of 1.24 percent, but up over 59 percent from a year ago when the rate was 0.79 percent. The national foreclosure rate for September was over double the rate of St. Louis at 2.93 percent and was an increase of 75 percent from a year Continue Reading → |
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