While losing $700 Billion in value in U.S. homes in a year sounds horrible, the good news is, if we end this year around this number the total loss in home values for 2011 will be smaller than the prior four years! This information is from the newly released Zillow Real Estate Market Reports, which also predicts that nine metro areas will see gains in home values this year once the final numbers are in! With all this “good” news, we have to ask ourselves…is the worst of the real estate market crash over? I think the answer is yes, at least when it comes to the housing market.
St. Louis Expected to lose 75 Percent more home value in 2011 than 2010:
While, for the U.S. as a whole, this years loss in home value was less than the prior 4 years, as the table below shows, St. Louis is expected to lose $11.9 billion in home values in 2011, an increase of 75 percent from 2010 when St. Louis saw a loss of $6.8 billion in home values.
Only 9 Metros Showing Indications of Price-Recovery:
Only 9, of the 128, markets that the Zillow report follows are expected to show gains in home values in 2011 according to the report. The New Orleans MSA is expected to show the largest gain of $3.5 billion in 2011, and Pittsburgh the second largest at 2.7 Billion.
“While homeowners suffered through another year of steep losses, the good news is that homes are losing value at a substantially slower pace as the market works its way towards the bottom,” said Zillow Chief Economist Stan Humphries. “Compared to last year when we saw sharp declines following the expiration of the homebuyer tax credits, this year we saw some organic improvement in home values, in terms of a slowed depreciation rate which resulted in a smaller total value loss for the year.”
“Unfortunately, when we look ahead to next year, the unabsorbed pool of housing supply, dragging levels of consumer confidence, high unemployment and negative equity will continue to put downward pressure on the housing market, pushing our expectation for a potential recovery into late 2012 or early 2013,” continued Dr. Humphries.
Source: Zillow
20 Largest Markets Tracked by Zillow
| Region | Estimated Home Value Loss/Gain in 2011(i ) | Home Value Loss/Gain in 2010(iii) | Total Estimated Home Value in 2011(iv) | Zillow Home Value Index(v) YoY Change (Oct.) |
| United States | -$681.1 billion | -$ 1.1 trillion | $21.9 trillion | -5.1% |
| New York, N.Y. MSA | -$44.8 billion | -$46.7 billion | $1.7trillion | -4.4% |
| Los Angeles, Calif. MSA | -$75.5 billion | -$50.3 billion | $1.7 trillion | -7.4% |
| Chicago, Ill. MSA | -$41.7 billion | -$56.1 billion | $611.6 billion | -10.4% |
| Dallas, Texas. MSA | -$11.1 billion | -$19.1 billion | $274.5 billion | -4.9% |
| Philadelphia, Penn. MSA | -$21.8 billion | -$28.3 billion | $496.1 billion | -4.6% |
| Washington, D.C. MSA | -$2.9 billion | -$16.5 billion | $779.7 billion | -1.9% |
| Miami-Fort Lauderdale, Fla. MSA | -$6.5 billion | -$28.6 billion | $479.4 billion | -4.9% |
| Atlanta, Ga. MSA | -$29.6 billion | -$32 billion | $263.6 billion | -14.7% |
| Boston, Mass. MSA | -$9.5 billion | -$9.9 billion | $482.2 billion | -2.7% |
| San Francisco, Calif. MSA | -$29.4 billion | -$27.6 billion | $700.8 billion | -6.3% |
| Detroit, Mich. MSA | $0 | -$12 billion | $180.6 billion | -6.7% |
| Riverside, Calif. MSA | -$14 billion | -$5 billion | $270.1 billion | -5.9% |
| Phoenix, Ariz. MSA | -$12.5 billion | -$35.6 billion | $258 billion | -8.4% |
| Seattle, Wash. MSA | -$22.4 billion | -$29.7 billion | $348.6 billion | -9.4% |
| Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minn. MSA | -$16.5 billion | -$17.5 billion | $227.1 billion | -9.1% |
| San Diego, Calif. MSA | -$9.7 billion | -$13.8 billion | $393.6 billion | -5.5% |
| St. Louis, Mo. MSA | -$11.9 billion | -$6.8 billion | $150.3 billion | -9.1% |
| Tampa, Fla. MSA | -$10.1 billion | -$16.1 billion | $159.3 billion | -10.7% |
| Baltimore, Md. MSA | -$8.9 billion | -$15.9 billion | $271.8 billion | -3.2% |
| Denver, Colo. MSA | -$5.5 billion | -$9 billion | $216 billion | -2.9% |
Source: Zillow
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