By Dennis Norman, on November 23rd, 2022 Is the St Louis real estate market going to crash? The national news is filled lately with reports of slowing housing markets throughout the country, increasing inventories, falling sales and prices. Some prognosticators are predicting some metro areas will see home prices fall by as much as 40 or 50 percent. Is the St Louis real estate market on a similar trajectory?? While I can’t predict the future, I can share data to help you see where the St Louis real estate market is currently as well as where the data shows it’s headed.
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By Dennis Norman, on November 11th, 2022 Below is our St Louis Real Estate Market Report for October 2022 for the City and County of St Louis combined. You can access the full infographic, containing data for St Charles, Jefferson and Franklin Counties as well by clicking on the image below.
Search St Louis Homes For Sale Search St Louis Upcoming OPEN HOUSES St Louis Real Estate Report for October 2022
(click on infographic for complete report including other counties)
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By Dennis Norman, on November 10th, 2022 There were 4,499 building permits issued for new single-family homes in the St Louis area during the 12-month period ended September 30, 2022, a decrease of 8.89% from the same period a year ago when there were 4,938 permits issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA). Five of the seven counties covered in the report saw a decrease in building permits from the same period a year ago with three of the counties have a double digit decline.
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By Dennis Norman, on November 9th, 2022 The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and Wells Fargo, jointly publish quarterly their Housing Opportunity Index (HOI) which shows the affordability, or lack thereof, of homes to a typical family. To arrive at an index value the median home price of recently sold homes for an area is taken into account as well as the median income for a family in that area. From this data the index is computed to show how affordable the typical home is to a typical family. The higher the index, the more affordable homes are to buyers in that market and the lower Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on October 28th, 2022 As the tables below show, so far during October there have been 52 home sales closed in Franklin County, down 43% from the same period last year when there were 91 sales closed. The median sold price this month for those closed sales in Franklin County has been $210,000 an increase of over 12 percent from the same period last year when the median prices homes in Franklin County sold for was $187,000.
The time it took listings to sell actually improved slightly with the median time being 43 days last October and 4o days this month. Last year the Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on October 28th, 2022 As the tables below show, so far during October there have been 704 home sales closed in St Louis County, down 26% from the same period last year when there were 955 sales closed. The median sold price this month for those closed sales in St Louis County has been $255,000 an increase of over 10 percent from the same period last year when the median prices homes in St Louis County sold for was $231,000. The time it took listings to sell has not changed with both periods having a median of 12 days and homes sold for a Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on October 27th, 2022 As the tables below show, so far during October there have been 278 home sales closed in St Charles County, down 28% from the same period last year when there were 388 sales closed. The median sold price this month for those closed sales in St Charles County has been $337,000 an increase of over 12 percent from the same period last year when the median prices homes in St Charles County sold for was 300. Another bit of data which is illustrates the overbidding we’ve seen in the past that has quickly come to an end for the most Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on October 27th, 2022 Monthly, Fannie Mae surveys consumers to gauge their sentiment toward whether it’s a good time to buy or sell a home and publishes the result in their Home Purchase Sentiment Index® (HPSI). As the chart below illustrates, in the most recent survey, which was just released, the HPSI index was at 60.8, the lowest level in nearly 11 years. No doubt the higher interest rates and softening economy are taking their toll on homebuyer’s optimism about the prospects of buying a home in the current market. This marks the seventh-consecutive monthly decline in the index and the first time since Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on October 26th, 2022 According to the results of the Household Pulse Survey conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau during the week of October 5 – October 17, about 1 in 8 tenants in Missouri reported they are not current on rent and a staggering 37.87% said they are somewhat likely to face eviction in the next 2-months.
Tenant Delinquencies In Missouri (Infographic)
(click for full-size version)
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By Dennis Norman, on October 21st, 2022 As the infographic below illustrates, the time active listings in St Louis have been on the market is much greater than the time it took homes that closed last month to sell. In addition, a much greater percentage of the current active listings have reduced their asking prices versus the sales that closed last month.
The most dramatic increase in days on the market was in St Charles County. Active listings in St Charles County have been on the market a median time of 38 days, almost 5 times as long as the sales that closed in September where the Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on October 18th, 2022 The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) released their NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) report for October 2022 and, not surprisingly, it shows the builders are continuing to lose confidence in the market. As our chart below shows, the Housing Market Index (HMI), the red line, peaked in November 2020 at 90 and has, with the exception of a few minor upticks along the way, fallen ever since reaching 38, the lowest level since August 2012 when it fell to 37.
Search St Louis Homes For Sale Search St Louis New Homes For Sale Single Family Housing Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on October 14th, 2022 During the third quarter of this year, there were 907 properties with foreclosure filings in the St Louis MSA, according to ATTOM Data’s U.S. Foreclosure Market Report. This represents an increase of 44.43% in St Louis foreclosures from the same quarter a year ago but is a decline of 16% from the second quarter of this year, according to the report.
As the table below shows, with the exception of Bond County in Illinois, all 15 counties reported had an increase in foreclosure activity during the 3rd quarter over last year, and all at least a double-digit increase. Lincoln County, Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on October 13th, 2022 Yesterday, Fannie Mae released their October housing forecast in which they forecast, among other things, where home sales and prices are headed. The report incudes a forecast for next year, which included:
Home prices in 2023 to decline 1.5% from 2022 Home sales to finish 2022 down nearly 18% from last year and drop another 22% in 2023 New home construction to end 2022 down 3.6% from last year and drop another 25% in 2023. Mortgage Interest Rates will continue to rise the rest of these year, ending the year at 6.7% and then will ease back to 6.4% in Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on October 12th, 2022 As the STL Real Estate Trends report below shows, as of last week, 43% of the active listings in the St Louis 5-County core market have a current asking price that is lower than the initial asking price. This is more than a 100% increase from the same week last year when only 20% of the listings had a reduced asking price.
Franklin County saw the biggest increase in price reductions on listings from last year with an increase from 14% to 47%. Franklin County also has the highest percentage of active listings with a reduced price and St Charles Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on October 11th, 2022 Below is our St Louis Real Estate Market Report for September 2022 for the City and County of St Louis combined. You can access the full infographic, containing data for St Charles, Jefferson and Franklin Counties as well by clicking on the image below. Worth noting and remembering is not all data is created equally nor is all of what you see reported accurate. Given the challenging and rapidly changing economic times we are in which are having an direct impact on the St Louis housing and real estate market, now, almost more than ever, you need to be sure Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on October 8th, 2022 Click on the image below to see the Infographic
By Dennis Norman, on October 7th, 2022 There were 4,486* building permits issued for new single-family homes in the St Louis area during the 12-month period ended August 31, 2022, a decrease of 8.93% from the same period a year ago when there were 4,926 permits issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA). Six of the seven counties covered in the report saw a decrease in building permits from the same period a year ago with four of the counties haveing a double digit decline.
*The city of St Louis did not report Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on October 6th, 2022 A little over two weeks ago I wrote my most recent article addressing St Louis home prices titled “Will St Louis Home Prices Decline?” in which my short answer was “yes”, but kind of tongue in cheek and based upon the seasonality of home prices, but my longer answer was more vague. I mentioned that there certainly is a correction coming but pointed out that there are so many variables that will affect prices that it is hard to say to what extent this correction will be. While this is still true, a lot has happened in the short time Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on September 28th, 2022 There are many headlines out there talking about home sales down 20% from last year on a national level but here in St Louis we are not seeing as large of a decline in home sales. As the chart below shows, for the 12-month period ended August 31, 2022, there were 27,891 homes sold in the St Louis 5-county core market, which as the trend line (dark green) depicts is a declining trend we’ve seen for the past 11 months now. This 12-month trend is the lowest trend since September 2020 when there were 27,572 homes sold in the prior Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on September 27th, 2022 Today, the interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage hit 7.08% marking the first time in over 20-years the rate has gone above 7%. Historically speaking, as the 2nd chart shows, this is not that high of an interest rate and, in fact, lower than the median rate over the past 50 years, however, it’s a very high rate based upon the the recent past.
The affect of interest rates on home prices…
Interest rates just began increasing in the past few months, rising above the 4% level in February, so it will take time to see the impact of Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on September 26th, 2022 It’s no secret that the real estate market slows down in the winter and typically nearly screeches to a halt from shortly before Christmas to shortly after New Years. Therefore, when tracking showing activity in the St Louis area, the first week of January of each year is used as the base, or “0” value and then each rolling 7-day period afterward is compared to that first week.
As the chart below shows, in 2020 and 2021 all weekly averages of showing activity were above the baseline of January until getting close to Thanksgiving, with the one exception being late Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on September 20th, 2022 The short answer is yes. They decline every year as we head into winter due to the seasonal nature of the business. If you look at the first chart below which depicts the median price of homes sold in the St Louis 5-County core market since 1998, you will notice a very consistent pattern of prices rising in the spring and summer, then declining in the fall and winter. For the most part, the other pattern you will see is that the peak each spring is higher than the spring before and the bottom each winter is higher than the Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on September 15th, 2022 On Monday of this week, a federal lawsuit was filed in the United Status District Court for the Western District of Washington by Natalie Perkins and Kenneth Hasson against Zillow Group, Inc. and Microsoft Corporation. The suit was filed as a class action complaint on behalf of “All natural persons in the United States and its territories whose Website Communications were captured through the use of Session Replay Code embedded in Zillow’s website”.
In the complaint, the plaintiff’s allege that the defendants, Zillow and Microsoft, violated the Washington Wiretapping Statute (Wash. Rev. Code §9.73.030, et. seq.) through the use of Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on September 13th, 2022 There were 4,600 building permits issued for new single-family homes in the St Louis area during the 12-month period ended July 31, 2022, a decrease of 8.06% from the same period a year ago when there were 5,003 permits issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA). Five of the seven counties covered in the report saw a decrease in building permits from the same period a year ago with three of the counties have a double digit decline.
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By Dennis Norman, on September 6th, 2022 The 12-month home sales trend in the St Louis 5-county core market declined in August to 27,840 homes sold in the 5-county area during the prior 12-months, marking the lowest 12-month sales number since September 2020. As the chart below illustrates, the 12-month home sales trend in St Louis has declined now for 11-months in a row landing just slightly higher than the 12-months sales of 27,573 for September 2020.
The St Louis home sales trend is still higher than any period after August 2006 and prior to September 2020…
At the current level, the St Louis home sales trend Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on August 25th, 2022 There have been 21,164 homes sold in the St Louis Metro area during the first 7-months of this year which, as the STL Market Chart below illustrates, is a decline of 10.7% from the same time last year when there were 23,709 homes sold.
2022 home sales fairly consistent with 4 out of 5 prior years…
As I stated above, St Louis YTD home sales are lagging behind last year however, last years sales appear to be the market peak and the difference, as shown below, between current YTD sales and the years prior to last year is not as Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on August 12th, 2022 We continue to see more price reductions on listings, or, as some agents prefer to refer to them as “price improvements”, throughout the St Louis area. As the infographic below depicts, as of today one-third of the active listings in the St Louis 5-County core market have a current asking price that is below their original price.
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By Dennis Norman, on August 12th, 2022 Apparently a lot of consumers are concerned about the housing market crashing or at least concerned enough to be online searching for answers. According to Google Trends the search phrase “Will The Housing Market Crash?” has hit it’s 5-year peak in terms of interest level during the last 4-5 months. In addition, according to Google Adwords tools, there are 10,000 – 100,000 searches for month for the phrase “Will The Housing Market Crash?” and 100,000 – 1,000, 000 monthly searches for “housing market crash“.
Will there actually be a housing market crash in St Louis?
I guess first we should Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on August 5th, 2022 I saw dozens and dozens of headlines yesterday reporting that mortgage interest rates had fallen below 5% on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage. The catch is on the day that was reported, yesterday, interest rates were actually above 5% on a 30-year fixed-rate loan. As our chart below shows, the MND Rate index was reporting 5.09% and, below that, Optimalblue was reporting 5.326%. Both of the aforementioned charts are updated daily and considered by many in the industry to have the most current and accurate information.
How could all the big headlines be wrong?
Well, actually the articles I scanned Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on August 4th, 2022 During the 14 year period prior to the housing bubble bursting in 2008, there were 92,065 building permits issued for new single family homes in the 3 most active home building counties in St Louis. As the table shows below, over half the permits issued during that period were in St Charles County alone, with the other half in the counties of St Louis and Jefferson.
Needless to say, when the housing bubble burst in 2008 and the market collapsed, new home construction came to a screeching halt. However, after about 5 years, the market quickly regained lost ground and Continue Reading →
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