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There were 4,486* building permits issued for new single-family homes in the St Louis area during the 12-month period ended August 31, 2022, a decrease of 8.93% from the same period a year ago when there were 4,926 permits issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA). Six of the seven counties covered in the report saw a decrease in building permits from the same period a year ago with four of the counties haveing a double digit decline. *The city of St Louis did not report Continue Reading → A little over two weeks ago I wrote my most recent article addressing St Louis home prices titled “Will St Louis Home Prices Decline?” in which my short answer was “yes”, but kind of tongue in cheek and based upon the seasonality of home prices, but my longer answer was more vague. I mentioned that there certainly is a correction coming but pointed out that there are so many variables that will affect prices that it is hard to say to what extent this correction will be. While this is still true, a lot has happened in the short time Continue Reading → There are many headlines out there talking about home sales down 20% from last year on a national level but here in St Louis we are not seeing as large of a decline in home sales. As the chart below shows, for the 12-month period ended August 31, 2022, there were 27,891 homes sold in the St Louis 5-county core market, which as the trend line (dark green) depicts is a declining trend we’ve seen for the past 11 months now. This 12-month trend is the lowest trend since September 2020 when there were 27,572 homes sold in the prior Continue Reading → Today, the interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage hit 7.08% marking the first time in over 20-years the rate has gone above 7%. Historically speaking, as the 2nd chart shows, this is not that high of an interest rate and, in fact, lower than the median rate over the past 50 years, however, it’s a very high rate based upon the the recent past. The affect of interest rates on home prices… Interest rates just began increasing in the past few months, rising above the 4% level in February, so it will take time to see the impact of Continue Reading → It’s no secret that the real estate market slows down in the winter and typically nearly screeches to a halt from shortly before Christmas to shortly after New Years. Therefore, when tracking showing activity in the St Louis area, the first week of January of each year is used as the base, or “0” value and then each rolling 7-day period afterward is compared to that first week. As the chart below shows, in 2020 and 2021 all weekly averages of showing activity were above the baseline of January until getting close to Thanksgiving, with the one exception being late Continue Reading → The short answer is yes. They decline every year as we head into winter due to the seasonal nature of the business. If you look at the first chart below which depicts the median price of homes sold in the St Louis 5-County core market since 1998, you will notice a very consistent pattern of prices rising in the spring and summer, then declining in the fall and winter. For the most part, the other pattern you will see is that the peak each spring is higher than the spring before and the bottom each winter is higher than the Continue Reading → On Monday of this week, a federal lawsuit was filed in the United Status District Court for the Western District of Washington by Natalie Perkins and Kenneth Hasson against Zillow Group, Inc. and Microsoft Corporation. The suit was filed as a class action complaint on behalf of “All natural persons in the United States and its territories whose Website Communications were captured through the use of Session Replay Code embedded in Zillow’s website”. In the complaint, the plaintiff’s allege that the defendants, Zillow and Microsoft, violated the Washington Wiretapping Statute (Wash. Rev. Code §9.73.030, et. seq.) through the use of Continue Reading → There were 4,600 building permits issued for new single-family homes in the St Louis area during the 12-month period ended July 31, 2022, a decrease of 8.06% from the same period a year ago when there were 5,003 permits issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA). Five of the seven counties covered in the report saw a decrease in building permits from the same period a year ago with three of the counties have a double digit decline. Search St Louis Homes For Sale Search St Continue Reading → The 12-month home sales trend in the St Louis 5-county core market declined in August to 27,840 homes sold in the 5-county area during the prior 12-months, marking the lowest 12-month sales number since September 2020. As the chart below illustrates, the 12-month home sales trend in St Louis has declined now for 11-months in a row landing just slightly higher than the 12-months sales of 27,573 for September 2020. The St Louis home sales trend is still higher than any period after August 2006 and prior to September 2020… At the current level, the St Louis home sales trend Continue Reading → There have been 21,164 homes sold in the St Louis Metro area during the first 7-months of this year which, as the STL Market Chart below illustrates, is a decline of 10.7% from the same time last year when there were 23,709 homes sold. 2022 home sales fairly consistent with 4 out of 5 prior years… As I stated above, St Louis YTD home sales are lagging behind last year however, last years sales appear to be the market peak and the difference, as shown below, between current YTD sales and the years prior to last year is not as Continue Reading → We continue to see more price reductions on listings, or, as some agents prefer to refer to them as “price improvements”, throughout the St Louis area. As the infographic below depicts, as of today one-third of the active listings in the St Louis 5-County core market have a current asking price that is below their original price. Search St Louis Homes For Sale Search St Louis Upcoming OPEN HOUSES Continue Reading → Apparently a lot of consumers are concerned about the housing market crashing or at least concerned enough to be online searching for answers. According to Google Trends the search phrase “Will The Housing Market Crash?” has hit it’s 5-year peak in terms of interest level during the last 4-5 months. In addition, according to Google Adwords tools, there are 10,000 – 100,000 searches for month for the phrase “Will The Housing Market Crash?” and 100,000 – 1,000, 000 monthly searches for “housing market crash“. Will there actually be a housing market crash in St Louis? I guess first we should Continue Reading → I saw dozens and dozens of headlines yesterday reporting that mortgage interest rates had fallen below 5% on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage. The catch is on the day that was reported, yesterday, interest rates were actually above 5% on a 30-year fixed-rate loan. As our chart below shows, the MND Rate index was reporting 5.09% and, below that, Optimalblue was reporting 5.326%. Both of the aforementioned charts are updated daily and considered by many in the industry to have the most current and accurate information. How could all the big headlines be wrong? Well, actually the articles I scanned Continue Reading → During the 14 year period prior to the housing bubble bursting in 2008, there were 92,065 building permits issued for new single family homes in the 3 most active home building counties in St Louis. As the table shows below, over half the permits issued during that period were in St Charles County alone, with the other half in the counties of St Louis and Jefferson. Needless to say, when the housing bubble burst in 2008 and the market collapsed, new home construction came to a screeching halt. However, after about 5 years, the market quickly regained lost ground and Continue Reading → There were 4,516 building permits issued for new single-family homes in the St Louis area during the 12-month period ended June 30, 2022, a decrease of 12.05% from the same period a year ago when there were 5,135 permits issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA). Five of the seven counties covered in the report saw a decrease in building permits from the same period a year ago with three of the counties have a double digit decline. Search St Louis Homes For Sale Search St Continue Reading → According to the latest data from HUD and the US Census Bureau, there is a 9.3 month supply of new homes for sale in the U.S. as of June, 2022. As the chart below illustrates, this is the largest supply of new homes for sale since May 2010 when there was also a 9.3 month supply. It wasn’t that long ago, August 2020 to be exact, when the supply hit a record low level of 3.3 months. St Louis New Home Supply is a little lower… It’s a little hard to pinpoint the new home supply in St Louis for Continue Reading → Interest rates on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage peaked at 6.28% a little over a month ago on June 14th, sending shockwaves through the St Louis housing market. After peaking however the rates have subsided, today dropping to 5.5%, the lowest rate since July 5th. This decline brings the mortgage rates down to the range they were I for most of May this year. Search St Louis Homes For Sale Search St Louis Upcoming OPEN HOUSES Mortgage Interest Rates (click on chart for live, interactive chart) Search St Louis Homes For Sale Search St Louis Upcoming Continue Reading → The inventory of homes for sale in the St Louis core market area increased to a 1.04 month supply in June 2022, an increase of nearly 12 percent (11.8%) from a year ago when there was a 0.93 month supply. As our chart below illustrates, this is the first time since August 2019 there has been a year-over-year increase in inventory and then the increase was just 3.1%. While a double-digit increase is significant, we do need to keep in mind that, at just over a one-month supply of listings for sale is still crazy low! The median listing supply Continue Reading → If you’re heard it once, you’ve likely heard it a hundred times, “all real estate is local”. This is why you can’t put too much faith in national news or data if you are interested in buying or selling a home in St Louis. This is also why at MORE, REALTORS®, we put so much time, effort and money into producing the best and most accurate local data we can. We think it’s important to bring the data and information down to the local level. “Homebuyers are canceling deals at highest rate since start of COVID” was the headline earlier Continue Reading → St Louis Real Estate Report for June 2022 (click on infographic for complete report including other counties) Price reductions are quickly showing up more and more on real estate listings in the St Louis area. As the Infograph below illustrates, 31% of the current active listings in St Louis have had at least one price reduction. Since the price homes sell at isn’t known until closing and a home sale typically takes 4 to 6 weeks to close, the actual sold prices won’t reflect these price reductions for a while. For example, in the past 30 days (through today) there have been 2,381 closings of home sales in the 5-county St Louis core market at a median Continue Reading → Ever heard the expression “It’s not if, but when..”? That is something that I’ve heard for a while now about a recession. With everything that has happened to our economy including rising interest rates, rising inflation, the government printing more and more currency and running up greater debt, it seemed inevitable we would see a recession. To officially be in a recession, the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) has to fall for two successive quarters. For the first quarter of this year, GDP declined at an annual rate of 1.6%. The second quarter GDP numbers won’t be released until later this Continue Reading → It’s no secret that the real estate market slows down in the winter and typically nearly screeches to a halt from shortly before Christmas to shortly after New Years. Therefore, when tracking showing activity in the St Louis area, the first week of January of each year is used as the base, or “0” value and then each rolling 7-day period afterward is compared to that first week. As the chart below shows, in 2020 and 2021 all weekly averages of showing activity were above the baseline of January until getting close to Thanksgiving, with the one exception being late Continue Reading → After hitting the highest rate in over 13 years just two weeks ago at 6.28%, as the chart below shows, mortgage interest rates on 30-year fixed mortgages declined today to 5.75%. The likelihood of interest staying under 6% is hard to to say at this time but I would say enjoy it while it lasts! Search St Louis Homes For Sale Search St Louis Upcoming OPEN HOUSES Mortgage Interest Rates – 30 and 15-Year Conventional Loans, FHA Jumbo and and 5/1 ARM Loans Search St Louis Homes For Sale Search St Louis Upcoming OPEN HOUSES Continue Reading → Price reduction, what’s that? All we seem to have heard about the last couple of years with regard to home prices is how much OVER the list price buyers were having to pay in order to buy a home. So, to be talking about price reductions today seems odd. However, as the infographic below illustrates, there have been listings with price reductions over the past couple of years, it’s just the current level of them is higher than we have seen in a while. Search St Louis Homes For Sale Search St Louis Upcoming OPEN HOUSES Continue Reading → For the first three weeks of June there were 1,475 new listings of homes for sale in the St Louis 5-county core market, according to the STL Real Estate Trends Report from MORE, REALTORS®. During the same period, there were 1,194 new contracts written on homes for sale resulting in a new listing to new contract ratio of 1.25. This ratio of listings to new sales is higher than it was 3 weeks ago when I shared the last update from the STL Real Estate Trends report and it was 1.05 at that time for the period reported which was Continue Reading → 
After over 40 years in the real estate business in St Louis I’ve seen many times just how fast a good, or even great housing market can turn sour as well as the other way around. Two years ago, economic conditions relevant to the housing market included: Interest rates in the 3’s Inflation rate under 2% The money supply increasing at a historically normal rate A steady and robust St Louis housing market Today, the above conditions are: Interest rates in the 6.25% – 6.5% range with the threat of increasing Inflation rate approaching 9% The money supply increasing nearly Continue Reading → The bond market had one of the worst days in history yesterday resulting in mortgage interest rates on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage hitting 6.0% and above. This is the highest rates have been since November 20, 2008 when the mortgage interest rates were 6.04%, according to Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey®. Is there a silver-lining to the higher interest rates? Given that the reason for the higher interest rates has to do with our high inflation rates and declining economic conditions, it’s hard to find much positive to say about what is happening. Having said that, the one Continue Reading → There have been 9,645 homes sold in the St Louis 5-county core market during the first 5-months of this year which, as the STL Market Chart below illustrates, is a decline of 8.8% from the same time last year when there were 10,579 homes sold. 2022 home sales outpacing 2020… While this years St Louis home sales are lagging behind last years, as the chart below also shows, 2022 YTD home sales is 2.8% higher than in 2020 when there were 9,382 YTD home sales. $1 Million+ home sales going strong… The bottom chart shows there have been 189 one-million Continue Reading → |
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