By Dennis Norman, on August 25th, 2015 New home sales in the midwest declined in July to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 54,000 homes, a decline of 6.9 percent from the month before when sales were at a rate of 58,000 homes, according to a report just released by the U.S. Commerce Department. The new home sales rate for the midwest in July 2015 was exactly the same as July 2014.
The new home supply in the United States decreased in July 1.9 percent to 5.2 months from a 5.3 month supply the month before and marks a decline of 14.8 percent from July 2014 when there was a 6.1 month supply.
New home prices increased 3 percent in July to a median price of $285,900 from $277,500 the month before and was 2 percent higher than a year ago when the median price of new homes sold in the U.S. was $280,400.
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By Dennis Norman, on July 24th, 2015 New home sales in the midwest slipped in June to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 56,000 homes, a decline of 11.1 percent from the month before when sales were at a rate of 63,000 homes, according to a report just released by the U.S. Commerce Department. Even though new home sales cooled off in June, the pace for June was still 5.7 percent higher than June 2014 when new home sales came in at a rate of 53,000 homes.
The new home supply in the midwest increased in June 12.5 percent to 5.4 months from a 4.8 month supply the month before, however this marks a decline of 6.9 percent from June 2014 when there was a 5.8 month supply.
New home prices increased slightly in June, from the month before, to a median price of $281,800 however were down 1.8% from June 2014 when the median new home price in the midwest was $287,000.
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By Dennis Norman, on June 16th, 2015 New Home Construction in the Midwest declined to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of return of 104,000 homes in May after hitting a rate of 123,000 homes in April. April’s increase in activity brought the rate of new home construction to 23% above a year ago, but in May the rate fell to a point 1% below the same time last year, according to newly released date from the U.S. Commerce Department and U.S. Census Bureau.
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Building Permits Issued In St Louis MSA for Single-Family Homes
Source: Federal Reserve – St Louis
By Dennis Norman, on June 1st, 2015 There were 437,000 new homes sold (single-family) in the U.S. last year, down from a peak of 1,283,000 in 2005. Roughly ten percent of the single-family homes sold were attached homes (44,000) and the remaining ninety-percent (393,000) were detached homes, according to data just released by the U.S. Census Bureau.
Facts and Figures For New Homes Sold In The Midwest During 2014:
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By Dennis Norman, on May 26th, 2015 New home sales here in the midwest region of the U.S. occurred in April at an adjusted annual rate of 78,000 homes, an increase of 36.8 percent from the month before when new home sales activity was at the rate of 57,000 homes per year and an increase of 20 percent from April 2014 when new homes were selling at the rate of 65,000 homes a year, according to data just released by the U.S. Census Bureau and HUD.
New home inventory is down…
According to the report, in April 2015, there was a 4.8 month supply of new homes for sale in the U.S., a decline of 5.9% from the month before and a decline of 14.3% from a year ago when there was a 5.6 month supply.
New home sales prices increased over 8%…
The median price of new homes sold in the U.S. during April 2015 was $297,300, an increase of 8.3% from a year ago when the median price was $274,500.
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By Dennis Norman, on May 19th, 2015 New Home Construction in the Midwest really heated up during the month of may with construction beginning during the month on new single-family homes a the annual rate of 126,000 homes, an increase of 43.2% from March and an increase of 15.6% from April 2014, according to newly released date from the U.S. Commerce Department and U.S. Census Bureau. During the month of April, new homes were completed at the annual rate of 128,000 homes, an increase of 50.6% from March and an increase of 28.0% from a year ago. Building permits issued for new homes did not keep pace with new construction and were issued at the annual rate of 100,000 homes which is still an increase of 1% from the month before and an increase of 5.3% from April 2014.
National Association of Home Builders Chairman, Tom Woods, a builder from right here in Missouri (Blue Springs) said “Our builders tell us that consumers are slowly returning to the market” and added, “This month’s report shows release of pent-up demand and evidence of a sustainable housing recovery.”
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By Dennis Norman, on April 18th, 2015 New Home Construction in the Midwest showed mixed results in March with a small increase from a year ago in the number of building permits issued but a decline in the number of new homes construction began on or was completed on, according to data released this week by the U.S. Commerce Department and U.S. Census Bureau.
New home construction activity in the midwest region of the U.S. in March (all figures shown are seasonally adjusted, annual rates)
By Dennis Norman, on March 17th, 2015 New home construction in St Louis has begun 2015 with a slower start than one might expect given the spring-like weather St Louis experienced during much of January and the flurry of activity we have seen thus far this year from home buyers. Permits issued in January for new homes in the St Louis Metro Area were down 7.85 percent from a year ago, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis. As the chart below illustrates, for the bulk of last year, the number of permits issued during the month was down from a year ago.
Percentage Change From Year Ago In Building Permits Issued In St Louis MSA for Single-Family Homes
Source: Federal Reserve – St Louis
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By Dennis Norman, on February 19th, 2015 While the number of building permits issued for new single family homes during January 2015 in the Midwest was down 4.8 percent from January 2014, builders were busy starting construction on new homes at a pace that was 73.6 percent higher than the year before, according to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau.
Other highlights from the report for January 2015 for the midwest region of the U.S.:
- Permits for new single family homes were issued at the seasonally adjusted annual rate of 99,000 units, down 2.0% from December and down 4.8% from January 2014.
- Construction commenced on new homes at the seasonally adjusted annual rate of 92,000 units, a decrease of 30.8% from December but an increase of 73.6% from January 2014.
- New homes in the Midwest were completed in January at the seasonally adjusted annual rate of 103,000 homes, down 2.8% from the month before and down 12.0% from a year ago.
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By Dennis Norman, on January 21st, 2015 After struggling for years, new home construction in the Midwest finished out 2014 with a little more home building activity than the prior year and on a pace that makes me feel pretty optimistic about 2015 for the home building industry.
New Home Building and Construction Activity in the Midwest during December 2014, according to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau:
- Permits for new single family homes were issued at the seasonally adjusted annual rate of 102,000 units, up 4.1% from the prior month’s rate and up 6.3% from the rate in December 2013.
- During 2014, building permits were issued for 101,900 new homes, just slightly more than 2013 when there were 101,800 permits issued.
- Construction commenced on new homes at the seasonally adjusted annual rate of 123,000 units, an increase of 7.9% from November and an increase of 0.8% from December 2013.
- During 2014, construction was commenced on 105,100 new homes, an increase of 3.1% from 2013.
- New homes in the Midwest were completed in December at the seasonally adjusted annual rateof of 108,000 units, up 8.0% from the month before and up 10.2% from a year ago.
- For 2014, there were 103,800 new homes completed, an increase of 8.6% from 2013.
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By Dennis Norman, on January 17th, 2015 The 63376 zip code area of St Charles County, which includes the City of St. Peters and a portion of Cottleville, had the most homes sold in 2014 of any other zip code area in St Louis with 1,145 homes sold. For the zip area with the second most homes sold in 2014 we jump to the east side of the Missouri river with the 63021 area of St Louis County, comprised of Ballwin, Manchester and Ellisville, with 856 homes sold. The chart below shows the top 20 zip areas in the St Louis area and then the charts that follow show the median home prices in those areas as well as the percentage of list prices homes in those areas sold for in 2014.
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Continue reading “Which St Louis Neighborhoods Had The Most Homes Sold in 2014?“
By Dennis Norman, on December 23rd, 2014 St Louis New Home Sales in November 2014 increased 12.5% from November 2013 and, as would be expected given the time of year, decreased about 8% from the month before. New home sales in St Louis out performed new home sales in the Midwest Region as a whole as the region saw 4,000 new home sales in November 2014, the same as a year ago, and a decrease of 20% from the month before, according to the latest data available from the U.S. Census Bureau and HUD.
The median price of new homes sold in November 2014 was $235,900, an increase of 15% from the month before when the median price was $205,000, and was up about 1% from November 2013 when the median new home sale price was $237,450.
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By Dennis Norman, on December 16th, 2014 New home construction starts in the Midwest during November occurred at a seasonally adjusted, annual rate, of 107,000 homes, an increase of 5.9 percent from the month before and a decline of 10.1 percent from November 2013, according to the latest data released by the U.S. Census Bureau. Year to date through the end of November, there have been 97,800 single family homes started, an increase of 2 percent from this time last year when construction had started on a total of 95,700 new single family homes.
Only half the new homes built are for sale-
One of the things to keep in mind about the new home construction numbers you hear about is not all the homes being built are for sale or adding to the inventory of homes for sale. Some new homes are built specifically for a client, perhaps on their own property, or are built for rental or other purpose. During the 3rd quarter of this year construction was begun on 32,000 new single-family homes and only 16,000 (50%) of those were built “for sale”. During the same period construction was begun on 18,000 new units in multi-family buildings (2 units or more) and less than 1/2% of those were built for sale, with 94.4% of them being built for rental.
New homes in the Midwest getting larger-
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By Dennis Norman, on November 26th, 2014 St Louis New Home Sales in October 2014 slipped 3.8% behind October 2013 but increased a little over 16% from the month before. The St Louis new home sales activity followed suit with the Midwest Region of the U.S. which saw a 15.8% increase in new home sales activity in October from the month before but a decline of 2.9% from October 2013, according to data just released by the U.S. Census Bureau and HUD.
As the chart below shows, the median price of new homes sold in St Louis in October 2014 was $205,000 a decline of 4.7% from a year ago when the median new home sale price in St Louis was $215,000 and is 3% below September’s median new home price of $211,500.
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By Dennis Norman, on November 19th, 2014 New Home Construction in the Midwest Region of the U.S. slowed in October with new home building permits being used at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 102,000 homes, a decline of 3.8% from September but a 4.1% increase from October 2014, according to data released today by the U.S. Census Bureau and HUD. Year to date for 2014, through October, there have been 89,100 permits issued for new homes, down very slightly from the same time last year when there had been 89,400 new home permits issued.
New Home Starts Fall Dramatically In The Midwest In October-
Construction began on new homes in the midwest in October at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 94,000 homes, down 21% from September and down 7.8% from October 2013.
New Home Completions Decline In The Midwest In October-
New homes were completed in the midwest region in October at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 99,000 homes, down 6.6% from the month before and down 2% from October 2013.
On a national level, new home permits were issued in October at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 640,000 homes, an increase of 1.4% from the month before and an increase of 2.4% from October 2013. Year to date for 2014, there have been 541,300 building permits issued for new single-family homes nationwide, an increase of 1.4% from the same time last year.
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By Dennis Norman, on November 4th, 2014
As the look, size, price and location of homes we live in has changed over the years so the typical buyer of these homes. The best way to find out what the typical home buyer is like and what they are looking for in a home is to turn to the National Association of REALTORS (NAR) annual survey of Home Buyers and Sellers. Annually, NAR produces the results of the massive survey they conduct and just today they released the 2014 survey results which I will highlight below.
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- 33% were first- time buyers which is down significantly from the historical norm of 40% showing younger people (the millennial’s in particular) are not as interested in home ownership as their parents were at their age.
- The typical first-time buyer was 31-years-old, while the typical repeat buyer was 53.
- The median income of first-time buyers was $68,300, $84,500 for all buyers and $95,000 for repeat home buyers.
- Almost two-thirds (65%) were married couples.
- 24% bought a home because they had a desire to own a home, 9% purchased due to job relocation or move and 8% bought due to change in family situation or to be in a better area.
What are home buyers today buying?
- 16% bought a new home.
- The typical home purchased was 20 years old, had 1,870 square feet with 3 bedrooms and 2 baths.
- 79% of the homes purchased were detached single-family homes.
- 13% of the people over 50 years of age bought a home in a senior housing development
How are buyers finding the homes they buy?
- 43% looked online for homes for sale as the first step in the process
- 92% used the internet in some way in their home search process
- 50% used a mobile website or app in their home search
- 98% used a real estate agent in their home search process
- The typical buyer viewed 10 homes over a 10 week period
- 86% bought a home through a real estate agent or broker.
By Dennis Norman, on October 30th, 2014 St Louis new home building permits issued in September increased by 6 percent from a year ago for the 5-county core area of St Louis (city of St Louis and counties of St Louis, St Charles, Jefferson and Franklin), according to data just released by the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri. On a year to date basis, as the table below shows, the city of St Louis is up 13 percent from the same period last year, St Louis county is up 2 percent and the rest of the counties are running behind last years numbers.
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By Dennis Norman, on October 24th, 2014 St. Louis new home sales in September 2014 increased 3.26% from September 2013 while the average St Louis new home sales price increased 10.97% during the same period, according to the latest data from Maris.
On a national level, new home sales in September 2014 were up 17% from September 2013 and in the Midwest region sales were up 6.7% during the same period. The average new home sales price in the U.S. in September 2014 was $259,000, a 4% decline from a year ago when the average price was $269,800, according to the U.S. Census Bureaiu.
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By Dennis Norman, on October 22nd, 2014 Around this time of year every year, people start asking me “Where is the real estate Market headed next year?” The real estate market is affected by so many factors that predictions on what the market will do are hard, however there are some basic fundamentals that can be looked at to make a good educated guess. One of the industry experts out there that I think does a good job at this and, offers a somewhat less biased look at the market than some, is Frank Nothaft, Chief Economist at Freddie Mac. Below are highlights of his most recent report on the outlook of the housing market along with my comments relating his projection to our St Louis market:
Home Sales:
- 5.31 million total homes (new and existing) sold in 2014, a 3.6% decrease from 2013. Projection for 2015 is an increase of 5.5% to 5.6 million homes sold.
- For St Louis (the 5-county core market), I am projecting that home sales will be down roughly the same as above, maybe just slightly higher, perhaps 4%, for 2014 from 2013. I would also project an increase in home sales in St Louis in 2015 at a rate close to the rate projected by Mr. Nothaft for the market as a whole.
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Continue reading “Where The Real Estate Market Is Headed In 2015“
By Dennis Norman, on September 18th, 2014 The number of new home building permits in St Louis dropped in August 12 percent from July and were down 2 percent from August 2013, according to the latest date from the Home Builders Association for St Louis and Eastern Missouri. There were a total of 287 permits issued for the 5-county core market consisting of the city of St Louis and Counties of St Louis, St Charles, Jefferson and Franklin, down from 327 the month before and 292 a year ago.
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By Dennis Norman, on September 17th, 2014 The new home market is improving and home builders indicate they have more confidence in the new home market now than they have had since November 2005, according to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. According to the HMI, home builders confidence is presently at 59, the highest level the index has been at since November 2005.
The HMI is comprised of several components including builder’s opinions of current sale conditions, buyer traffic and future sales. The response from builders indicate they feel optimistic about current sale conditions and very optimistic about future sales, but not as pleased with current buyer traffic through their displays.
Looking at results of the survey on a regional basis, the Midwest region registered the highest on the index with a 59, followed by the West with a 58, South at 56 and Northeast at 41.
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By Dennis Norman, on August 25th, 2014 New home sales in the midwest region of the U.S. slipped in July with new home sales coming in at the seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 52,000 homes, down 8.8% from a rate of 57,000 homes the month before and down 1.9% from July 2013, according to data released today by the U.S. Census Bureau. Year to date, through July, there have been 36,000 new homes sold (not seasonally adjusted) down 2.7% from the same time last year when there were 37,000 year to date new home sales.
On a national level, in July new home sales were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 412,000 homes, down 2.4% from the month before but up 12.3% from July 2013 when new home sales were at the annual rate of 367,000 homes. In July 2014 there was a 6 month supply of new homes for sale, an increase of 7.1% from the month before when the supply was 5.6 months and an increase in the same amount from a year ago.
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By Dennis Norman, on August 5th, 2014 A new study by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reveals that, for each $1,000 increase in the price of a new home (median-priced new home) ,206,000 prospective home buyers are forced out of the market. The NAHB uses this point to illustrate the effect that building regulations can have on housing affordability citing that every $833 increase in fees paid during the home-building process, such as permit fees, impact fees, etc, adds an additional $1,000 to the final price of the home.
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By Dennis Norman, on July 9th, 2014  Today’s new home buyer’s most important features are the kitchen and master bedroom, according to a survey conducted by PulteGroup. The kitchen was chosen as the most important feature in a new home by 29% of those surveyed, followed by the master bedroom with 22% picking that as their top feature. So, the bottom line is, the most important thing to new home buyers is to eat and sleep! ;)
As for kitchen features that new home buyers are looking for, 23% aid a large eat in area was the most important feature of the kitchen, followed by 22% that said an oversized island was and finally 19% that said an oversized pantry.
In the master bedroom, 31% said the top priority was his and her closets, followed by 23% that had a spa-like bath as a top priority in the master bedroom.
A nice house beats a smart kid any day…
The thing in the survey that jumped out at me was the fact that over a third of the people surveyed (35%) said they would give up better schools in order to get a home with the features important to them. Looking at it from the “glass is half full” perspective, I’m going to say that perhaps those were just the people without school-age kids.
Size matters..
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By Dennis Norman, on July 2nd, 2014 Home ownership rates have been on the decline and, in fact, reached a 19 year low the first quarto of this year when the home ownership rate in the U.S. fell to 64.8%. However, for people 65 years and older, the rate of home ownership has been on the rise. As the chart below shows, while the rate of home ownership declined for the U.S. overall, the rate for those persons aged 65 and over has continued to rise.
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Continue reading “Home Ownership By People Over 65 Years Old On The Rise“
By Dennis Norman, on June 26th, 2014  New home sales in the midwest region during May 2014 increased 5.7 percent from a year ago, according to the latest information from the U.S. Census Bureau. New homes sales in the midwest region of the U.S. were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 74,000 homes during May. New home sales for the month before, April 2014, were adjusted downward to an annual rate of 73,000 homes after first being reported at a rate of 84,000 homes.
The midwest region had the smallest month over month, as well as year-over-year, increase in new home sales of the four U.S. regions or the U.S. as a whole.
See St Louis New Homes For Sale – Click HERE
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By Dennis Norman, on June 17th, 2014 New home building permits issued in the Midwest region of the U.S. in May was up 1 percent (seasonally adjusted) from a year ago and increased 7.3 percent from the month before, accordion to the latest data released by the U.S. Census Bureau. On a national level, new home building permits issued in May were down 0.8% from the year before but were up 3.7% from April, according to the report.
As the chart below from the Fed Reserve shows, building permits issued in St Louis are definitely on the rise but are still at levels much lower than back during the real estate bubble.
See St Louis New Homes For Sale – Click HERE
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By Dennis Norman, on June 10th, 2014 New home construction is not keeping up with demand in most of the U.S. and could even lead to “persistent housing shortages and affordability issues unless housing starts increase to match up with local job creation”, according to a newly released analysis by the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR).
Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, discussed in the report the relationship between new jobs and increased demand for housing saying “Historically, there’s one new home construction for every one-and-a-half new jobs,”. Yun goes on to say “Our analysis found that a majority of states are constructing too few homes in relation to local job market conditions. This lack of construction has hamstrung supply and slowed home sales.”
Missouri is not one of the states the NAR report cites as having the biggest disparity between job creation and new homes, instead listing Florida, Utah, California, Montana and Indiana as the states where this issue is most prevalent, but I think we are going to see this, on a reduced scale, in St Louis as well.
See St Louis New Homes For Sale – Click HERE
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By Dennis Norman, on June 4th, 2014 There were 569,000 new homes (single-family) completed in the U.S. last year. So what are popular features and finishes in new homes today? What does the “typical” new home have? Below is a summary of some of the characteristics of the new homes built in 2013 as detailed in a report by the U.S. Census Bureau:
See St Louis New Homes For Sale – Click HERE
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By Dennis Norman, on May 26th, 2014 New home sales in the midwest in April increased 35.5 percent from a year ago, according to the latest information from the U.S. Census Bureau. New homes sales in the midwest region of the U.S. were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 84,000 homes, an increase of 47.4% from March’s rate of 57,000 homes.
The midwest region had the largest increase in new home sales in April from the month before and was the only region in the U.S. that had an increase in home sales in April 2014 from April 2013.
See St Louis New Homes For Sale – Click HERE
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