By Dennis Norman, on August 28th, 2012  The S&P/Case-Shiller report was published today showing that U.S. home prices increased 6.9 percent in the 2nd quarter of 2012 from the quarter before. That’s great, but St. Louis is not included in their 10 nor 20 city index so it doesn’t tell us how we are doing here in St. Louis. Fortunately we have the market data available to see how St. Louis stacks up and, I’m happy to say (as the chart below shows), St. Louis home prices, with a 5.2 percent increase from the 1st quarter of 2012 to the 2nd quarter, is only running a little behind the national average!
Continue reading “St Louis home prices keeping pace with national average“
By Dennis Norman, on July 31st, 2012  St. Louis home prices are significantly outperforming other metro markets as evidenced by today’s release of the the S&P/Case-Shiller Index report for May 2012 which showed both the 10-city and 20-city composites, increased by 2.2 percent from the month before while St Louis home prices (see chart below) increased 9.6 percent from the month before. On a year-over-year basis, both the 10-city and 20-city composites saw declines, 1.0 percent and 0.7 percent respectively while St. Louis home prices in May increased 3.4 percent from the year before. Continue reading “St Louis home prices increase from last year while U.S. home prices fall“
By Dennis Norman, on April 24th, 2012 This morning, the S&P/Case-Shiller Index report for February was released which showed both the 10-city and 20-city composites, after both hitting record low levels in the two prior months, fell further in February to 146.90 (the lowest since April 2003) and 134.20 (the lowest since October 2002) respectively.. The 10-city and 20-city composites saw annual price decline of 3.6 percent and 3.5 percent respectively and both saw price declines of 0.8 percent in February from January.
Continue reading “Home prices fall to lowest levels in almost 10 years; 20-city case shiller lowest since October 2002“
By Dennis Norman, on March 27th, 2012 This morning, the S&P/Case-Shiller Index report for January was released which showed both the 10-city and 20-city composites, after both hitting record low levels in December, fell further in January. The 10-city and 20-city composites saw annual price decline of 3.9 percent and 3.8 percent respectively and both saw price declines of 0.8 percent in January from December.
Continue reading “Case-Shiller report says 2012 home prices off to rocky start“
By Dennis Norman, on February 28th, 2012 This morning, the S&P/Case-Shiller Index report for December was released showing all three of the home price composites ended the year at new index lows. The national composite fell by 3.8 percent during the fourth quarter of 2011 and was down 4.0 percent from the year before. Both the 10-city and 20-city composites fell by 1.1 percent in December from the month before and the home price indexes were down 3.9 percent and 4.0 percent respectively from the year before. All three composites are at their lowest levels sine the housing crisis began in mid-2006.
Continue reading “Case-Shiller Home Price Index Falls to New Low in December; Maybe sign of new period of decline“
By Dennis Norman, on December 27th, 2011  Dennis Norman This morning, the S&P/Case-Shiller Index report for October was released showing US home prices decreased from the month before as well as the year before. The 10-city and 20-city composites fell by 1.1 percent and 1.2 percent respectively and the home price indexes were down 3.0 percent and 3.4 percent respectively from the year before.
Continue reading “Home Prices Fall In October; back to mid-2003 levels“
By Dennis Norman, on October 25th, 2011  St. Louis home prices decreased 4.3 percent in August from the month before and were down less than one percent from a year ago. The median home price in August 2011 in the five-county core of the St. Louis market (St Louis City & County, St. Charles, Jefferson & Franklin Counties) was $134,000. This put’s St. Louis home price performance below the Case-Shiller home prices announced this morning for the 20 largest metro’s in the U.S. (St. Louis is not included) which showed a 0.2 percent increase from the month before but ahead of the 3.8 percent decrease in U.S. home prices from a year ago. Continue reading “St. Louis Home Prices Fall in August in Contrast to U.S. Home Prices That Increased“
By Dennis Norman, on September 27th, 2011 St. Louis home prices increased 4.6 percent in July from the month before but were down 3.6 percent from a year ago. The median home price in July 2011 in the five-county core of the St. Louis market (St Louis City & County, St. Charles, Jefferson & Franklin Counties) was $140,000. This put’s St. Louis home price performance above the Case-Shiller home prices announced this morning for the 20 largest metro’s in the U.S. (St. Louis is not included) which showed a 0.9 percent increase from the month before and a 4.1 percent decrease from a year ago. Continue reading “St Louis home prices performing better than national home price index“
By Dennis Norman, on August 30th, 2011 Dennis Norman This morning, the S&P/Case-Shiller Index report for June was released showing US home prices increased for the third consecutive month however, average home prices in the U.S. are still about the same as they were over 8 years ago in early 2003. The report shows their 20-city composite home price index increased by 1.1 percent from the month before and declined by 4.5 percent from a year ago. and the 10-city composite home price index increased by 1.1 percent from the month before and was down 3.8 percent from the year before. Continue reading “Case-Shiller report shows U.S. home prices increased slightly in June“
By Dennis Norman, on July 26th, 2011 Dennis Norman This morning, the S&P/Case-Shiller Index report for May was released showing US home prices increased for the second consecutive month with average home prices in the U.S. being about the same as they were in the summer of 2003. The report shows their 20-city composite home price index increased by 1.0 percent from the month before and declined by 4.5 percent from a year ago. and the 10-city composite home price index increased by 1.1 percent from the month before and was down 3.6 percent from the year before. Continue reading “Home Price Index increases for second consecutive month in May“
By Dennis Norman, on July 5th, 2011
Following last week’s somewhat encouraging Pending Home Sales report from the National Association of REALTORS which showed increased home sales activity, Radar Logic issued a much less encouraging report. Their report, titled “Don’t be Misled by Gains in Home Price Indices and Pending Homes Sales; Housing Recovery is Still a Long Way Off” pretty much says it all in the title. Continue reading “Report says recent good news on housing market is misleading; recovery is a long way off“
By Dennis Norman, on June 28th, 2011 Dennis Norman This morning, the S&P/Case-Shiller Index report for April was released showing US home prices showed a monthly increase for the first time in eight months bringing average home prices in the U.S. back to their summer 2003 levels. The report shows their 20-city composite home price index increased by 0.7 percent from the month before and declined by 4.0 percent from a year ago. and the 10-city composite home price index increased by 0.8 percent from the month before and was down 3.1 percent from the year before. Continue reading “Home price index for April increases for first time in 8 months“
By Dennis Norman, on June 14th, 2011 The headline today on a CNBC article was “US Housing Crisis is Now Worse than Great Depression” and there are many similar articles in other publications as well…in fact, if you Google “Housing Crisis Worse Than Great Depression” there are over 100 exact matches just in the past month. The writer’s all seem to be hanging onto one stat that came out of the Case-Shiller home price index reports, that being that the “peak to trough” decline in home prices during this housing recession has hit 33 percent, which exceeds the 31 percent decline during the Great Depression. But wait, there’s a LOT MORE to look at… Continue reading “Current Housing Market Bust Worse Than Depression? I Don’t Think So..“
By Dennis Norman, on June 9th, 2011  Robert Shiller I’m doing this article as I attend a presentation by Robert Shiller, Yale Economics Professor and Co-Founder of the S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Indices at the S&P Housing Summit 2011, as he discussed “Unusual Factors Influencing the Outlook for the U.S. Housing Market. So it may be a little choppy, but here are the highlights of his presentation “live”: Continue reading “Robert Shiller on the Housing Boom and Bust and where home prices are headed“
By Dennis Norman, on May 31st, 2011 Dennis Norman Today the S&P/Case-Shiller Index report for the first quarter of 2011 was released showing home prices continue to fall and that the national home price index hit a new recession low. Nationally, home prices are back to their mid-2002 levels according to the report.
Continue reading “Report Shows U.S. Home Prices Hit Record Low in First Quarter; “No relief in sight”“
By Dennis Norman, on April 26th, 2011 Dennis Norman Today the S&P/Case-Shiller Index report for February was released showing home prices continue to fall and that the housing housing market continues to head toward a double dip in home prices. The report shows their 20-city composite home price index declined by 1.1 percent from the month before and declined by 3.3 percent from a year ago. Continue reading “Home prices continue to fall and continue to point to double dip in housing market“
By Dennis Norman, on March 29th, 2011 Dennis Norman When I take my kids out for an ice cream cone it’s pointless to ask if they want one or two dips, they always go for the double dip! What’s good for ice cream sales is not good for home prices though…..and, unfortunately, it appears that home prices are choosing to go for the double dip as well...
Today the S&P/Case-Shiller Index report for January was released showing home prices are off to a dismal start in 2011 and further proof that the housing market is headed toward a double-dip in home prices. The report shows their 20-city composite home price index declined by 3.1 percent from a year ago. Continue reading “Will that be one scoop or two? Two, answers home prices.“
By Dennis Norman, on February 22nd, 2011 Dennis Norman Today the S&P/Case-Shiller Index report for December was released and supports last months report saying a double-dip in home prices was headed our way. The report shows home prices declined by 3.9 percent during the fourth quarter of 2010. Continue reading “Report confirms home prices still falling; headed toward double-dip“
By Dennis Norman, on January 25th, 2011 Dennis Norman Today the S&P/Case-Shiller Index report for November was released and confirms concerns that I have discussed previously that the housing market is headed for a double dip in home prices.
The report revealed that home prices decreased in 19 or the 20 metro areas covered by the report from their October levels and only four of the metro’s showed a year-over-year price gain in November.Furthermore, nine metros – Atlanta, Charlotte, Chicago, Detroit, Las Vegas, Miami, Portland (OR), Seattle and Tampa – hit their lowest levels since home prices started to fall in 2006 and 2007. Continue reading “Home Prices Continue to Weaken Confirming Double Dip Fears“
By Dennis Norman, on December 29th, 2010 Dennis Norman Yesterday the S&P/Case-Shiller Index report for October was released and was filled with bad news on the housing market. The report revealed that home prices decreased in all 20 metro areas covered by the report from their September levels and only four of the metro’s showed a year-over-year price gain in October.Furthermore, six metros – Atlanta, Charlotte, Miami, Portland (OR), Seattle and Tampa – hit their lowest levels since home prices started to fall in 2006 and 2007.
This news comes at a time when we have seen a couple of bits of positive news on the housing market, so of course it is disappointing but not unexpected. It look us a long time to get into this mess and it’s going to take a while to get out. David Blitzer, the Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard and Poor’s, comments on the report are rather bleak. Mr. Blitzer said “the double-dip is almost here, as six cities set new lows for the period since the 2006 peaks. There is no good news in October’s report. Home prices across the country continue to fall.” Continue reading “Home Prices: The Coming ‘Double Dip’“
By Dennis Norman, on November 30th, 2010 Dennis Norman This morning S&P/Case-Shiller Index report for the third quarter or this year was released showing home prices declined 2.0 percent in the third quarter after having risen 4.7 percent in the second quarter.
Nationally, home prices are 1.5 percent below where they were a year ago. In September, 18 of the 20 metro areas covered by the report had declines in the home price index.
Continue reading “Home prices decline in third quarter“
By Dennis Norman, on October 26th, 2010 Dennis Norman This morning S&P/Case-Shiller Index report for August was released showing a deceleration in the annual growth rates of home prices from the month before in 17 of the 20 Metro areas covered by the report. The Case-Shiller Home Prices Indices for the 20 metros showed a decrease of 0.2 percent in home prices in August from July and an increase of 1.7 percent in home prices from the year before. Continue reading “Case-Shiller issues disappointing report on home prices“
By Dennis Norman, on September 28th, 2010 Dennis Norman This morning S&P/Case-Shiller Index report for July was released showing that the annual growth rates of home prices in 16 of the 20 Metro areas covered by the report slowed in July compared to June. The Case-Shiller Home Prices Indices for the 20 metros showed a slight increase of 0.6 percent in home prices in July over June and an increase of 3.2 percent in home prices from the year before, down from June’s 4.2 percent increase from the year before. Continue reading “Home prices rise slightly in July; home prices on average back to 2003 levels“
By Dennis Norman, on August 31st, 2010  Dennis Norman Naturally, no sooner than I finish writing my post this morning about the Case-Shiller report on home prices in which I actually got to report somewhat “positive” news, my bubble is burst. RadarLogic, another company that has their own home price index that I like, came out with a report saying the Case-Shiller report was too optimistic and that their (RadaLogic) home price index was a better reflection of home values. Continue reading “Dueling Economists: Home Prices Up or Down?“
By Dennis Norman, on August 31st, 2010 Dennis Norman This morning S&P/Case-Shiller Index report for the 2nd quarter of 2010 was released showing that the home prices improved slightly over a year ago in 17 of the 20 Metro Area’s their reports cover.
The Case-Shiller Home Prices Indices showed an increase of 4.4 percent in home prices in 2nd quarter after a decline of 2.8 percent in the first quarter. As of the end of the 2nd quarter U.S. home prices are, on average, up 3.6 percent from the year before. Continue reading “Report shows home prices up modestly over last year“
By Dennis Norman, on July 27th, 2010 Dennis Norman This morning S&P/Case-Shiller Index report for May was released showing that the annual growth rates in 15 of the 20 Metro Area’s their reports cover improved in May compared to April 2010. The 10-city composite is up 5.4 percent from the year before and the 20-city composite is up 4.6 percent from the year before. Continue reading “Case-Shiller; Housing market not in any form of sustained recovery“
By Dennis Norman, on June 29th, 2010 Dennis Norman This morning S&P/Case-Shiller Index report for April was released showing that theannual growth rates of all 20 Metro Area’s their reports cover improved in April compared to March 2010. The 10-city composite is up 4.6 percent from the year before and the 20-city composite is up 3.8 percent from the year before.
However, in spite of this little bit of encouragement, David Blitzer, Chairman of the Standard & Poor’s Index Committee casts a negative light on the market by pointing out the, while this report does show some price gains, “many of the gains are modest and somewhat concentrated in California….moreover, nine of the 20 cities reached new lows at some time since the beginning of this year…”.
Tax-Credit Boost to Market-
Blitzer also stressed the impact of the homebuyer tax credit deadline on the market by saying “the month-over-month figures were driven by the end of the Federal first-time home buyer tax credit program on April 30th…eighteen cities saw month-to-month gains in April compared to six in the previous month.”
A Recovery Does Not a Tax Credit Make-
The Case-Shiller report shows results for April that, if fueled by a “real” market, may be sustainable but since it has clearly been fueled temporarily by the tax credits, it is not necessarily an indication that home prices have fully stabilized or that a housing recovery is underway. In the report Blitzer confirms this saying “other housing data confirm the large impact, and likely near-future pullback, of the federal program….recently released data for May 2010 show sharp declines in existing and new home sales and housing starts….inventory data and foreclosure activity have not shown any signs of improvement.”
When Will Home Prices and The Housing Market Stabilize? Where’s the Recovery?
Blitzer expects that it will be next year before we see “consistent and sustained boosts to economic growth from housing”. For what it’s worth, I agree…I don’t see much happening this year other than, hopefully, some markets finding their bottom and then beginning to stabilize.
By Dennis Norman, on May 25th, 2010 Dennis Norman Today the S&P/Case-Shiller Index report for the first quarter of 2010 was released showing that the U.S. National Home Price Index fell 3.2 percent in the first quarter of 2010, but remains above it’s level from a year-earlier.
In March, 13 of the 20 MSA’s covered by the Case-Shiller report, as well as both the 10-city and 20-city composites, were down for the month however both the composites as well as 10 of the 20 MSA’s showed year-over-year gains. The report cites the end of the tax incentives and the increasing foreclosure rate as reasons the housing market is seeing some “renewed weakness“.
Other highlights from the report –
- The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index for first quarter 2010 is up 2.0 percent from the first quarter of 2009.
- In March the 10-City Composite was up 3.1 percent from the first quarter of 2009, and the 20-City Composite was up 2.3 percent for the same period.
- These two indices are reported monthly and have seen improvements in their annual rates of return every month for the past year.
“The housing market may be in better shape than this time last year; but, when you look at recent trends there are signs of some renewed weakening in home prices,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s. “In the past several months we have seen some relatively weak reports across many of the markets we cover. Thirteen MSAs and the two Composites saw their prices drop in March over February. Boston was flat. The National Composite fell by 3.2% compared to the previous quarter and the two Composites are down for the sixth consecutive month.
“While year-over-year results for the National Composite, 18 of the 20 MSAs and the two Composites improved, the most recent monthly data are not as encouraging. It is especially disappointing that the improvement we saw in sales and starts in March did not find its way to home prices. Now that the tax incentive ended on April 30th, we don’t expect to see a boost in relative demand.”
 FHFA Shows Lower Home Prices in First Quarter Also:
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) released their report on first quarter home prices today as well. The FHFA report data and methodology differs from NAR and Case-Shiller, in that the FHFA home price index is based only on the sale prices of homes that are financed with a conforming loan (by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s standards).
The FHFA report for the first quarter of 2010 shows home prices fell 1.9 percent from the quarter before, so not terribly far off from the 3.2 percent decline the Case-Shiller report showed. In contrast to the Case-Shiller report however, the FHFA report showed March’s home prices rose 0.3 percent from February. Also, the FHFA report shows home prices for this quarter fell 3.1 percent from a year ago.
St. Louis Home Prices Doing Better:
For the St. Louis metro and surrounding areas, the median home price for the quarter ended April 30, 2010 was $130,000 an increase of 1.6 percent from the prior quarter’s median price of $128,000 and an increase of 8.3 percent from a year ago when the median home price was $120,000. In case you are wondering, the median home price for the St. Louis area has dropped 3.0 percent in the past six years.
 Median Home Prices in St. Louis Metro and Surrounding Areas for Past Six Years - Source: Mid America Regional Information Systems (MARIS)
 Comparison of St. Louis Median Home Prices to Prior Periods - Source: Mid America Regional Information Systems (MARIS)
Where are home prices headed?
As we are frequently reminded, “all real estate is local”, so there will be markets that do better than others, but in general I think we are in store for soft home prices for a while. I think after the “sugar-rush” of the tax credit incentive wears off as the deals close over the next couple of months, and the next wave of foreclosures hit the market we will see prices regress again in many markets, enough so to bring overall home prices in the US down modestly in the coming months.
By Dennis Norman, on April 27th, 2010
Dennis Norman This morning the S&P/Case-Shiller Index report for February was released showing that, for the first time since December, 2006, the annual rates of change for their two composite home-price indices were positive. The 10-City Composite is up 1.4 percent from a year before and the 20-City Composite is up 0.6 percent from the same time last year. Unfortunately, 11 of the 20 cities included in the 20-City Composite had declines from the prior year, meaning that this positive bit of news is not “market-wide” but is the result of some metros with stronger markets.
On a positive note, 18 of the 20 metro areas in the 20-City Composite showed an improvement in their annual rates with February’s readings compared to the January 2010 figures, with Dallas and Portland being the only exceptions.
We are not “out of the woods” yet – the fat lady hasn’t sang –
“Beginning last November, each report showed gains as fewer cities reported year-over-year declines than in the previous month; those gains ended with this report. Further, in six cities prices were at their lowest levels since the prices peaked three-to-four years ago. These data point to a risk that home prices could decline further before experiencing any sustained gains. While the year-over-year data continued to improve for 18 of the 20 MSA’s and the two Composites, this simply confirms that the pace of decline is less severe than a year ago. It is too early to say that the housing market is recovering” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s. “Nineteen of the 20 MSAs and both Composites declined in February over January. Fourteen of the MSAs and both Composites have now fallen for at least four consecutive months. In addition, prices reached recent new lows for six cities in February – Charlotte, Las Vegas, New York, Portland, Seattle and Tampa – sending a more cautionary message compared to the annual figures. While 14 MSAs and the two composites show improvement over their trough values reached in the spring 2009, we are not completely out of the woods“, said Blitzer.
Foreclosures still overshadow the good news –
“Existing and new home sales, inventories and housing starts all show tremendous improvement in their March statistics. The homebuyer tax credit, available until the end of April, is the likely cause for these encouraging numbers and this may also flow through to some of our home price data in the next few months. Amidst all the news, however, we should also pay heed to foreclosure activity, which have reached their highest level in at least the last five years. As these homes are put up for sale, we may see some further dampening in home prices“, said Blitzer.
Other highlights from the report –
- As of February 2010, average home prices across the U.S. are at similar levels to where they were in late summer/early autumn of 2003
- From their peak in June/July 2006 through the trough in April 2009, the 10-City Composite is down 33.5 percent and the 20-City Composite is down 32.6 percent.
- From peak through February 2010 prices are down 30.7 percent on the 10-city index and 30.3 percent on the 20-city index.
- San Diego was the only market that continued to show improvement in home prices between January and February. All other metros and the two composites showed declines from their January levels.
- 12 of the MSAs home prices fell by at lest 1.0 percent during the month.
- 6 of the MSAs, Charlotte, Las Vegas, New York, Portland, Seattle and Tampa, posted new index lows.
- Charlotte and Cleveland have shown seven consecutive months of negative monthly returns.
- Atlanta, Boston, Denver, New York and Tampa are not far behind, with six consecutive negative reports.
By Dennis Norman, on April 20th, 2010 Dennis Norman Bear with me, I’m really not an ego-maniac, it’s just so infrequently that anyone of any real authority, or with “PhD” behind their name, agrees with me, so when it does happen I have to sound the horns and bask in the glory while it lasts!
If you have read any of my articles on any blogs about home sales and new home starts you are well aware of my usual rant about, and distrust of, “seasonally-adjusted” numbers. Up until today I really just thought this was my simple-minded way of looking at things and, even though I think it makes sense, was not surprised that economists were not following my lead.
Well, today Standard & Poor’s, the world’s leading index provider and publisher of the closely followed S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, announced they agree with me! Well, they didn’t actually mention me in their statement, however the statement they issued is consistent with my rants:
After reviewing the data, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index Committee believes that for the present time, the unadjusted series is a more reliable indicator of U.S. housing trends than the seasonally adjusted series. Therefore, the Committee suggests that reports should focus on the year-over-year changes in U.S. home prices where seasonal shifts are not a factor, and if monthly changes are considered, that the unadjusted series should be used.”
All right, enough patting myself on the back…I’ll stop. Seriously though, I have to admit that I am impressed that Standard and Poors made such a radical change in it’s philosphy and is willing to step out and approach the market differently than they have in the past. It seems most of the publishers of indices, economists, and the like just stick with the same old approach that has been used for the past couple of decades without ever stopping to see if their approach is still relevant.
Hat’s off to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index Committee!
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