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Dennis Norman Asking this question now is about like asking a newly divorced person their thoughts on marriage….nonetheless in challenging times many of us reflect upon our past investment decisions, investment philosophy, etc and see what can be learned from our past to help us in the future. Dennis Norman Finally, some good news! This morning Standard & Poor’s released their S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Index for June showing that first-mortgage default rates declined 5 percent from the month before and were down 45.2 percent from a year ago. I have been saying for a while, we are not going to see any sort of sustainable recovery of the housing market until we see mortgage delinquency and default rates decline thereby bringing down the foreclosure rate and ultimately easing the downward pricing pressure on the housing market caused by foreclosures. Maybe, just maybe, this is the Continue Reading → Dennis Norman According to a report released this morning by RealtyTrac there were 1,961,894 foreclosure filings in the first six months of 2010 on 1,654,634 housing units in the U.S. This reflects a 5 percent decrease from foreclosure activity for the prior 6 month period but is an 8 percent increase from the same period of 2009. What is just a sickening statistic in the report is that, during the first six months of 2010, 1.28 percent of all housing units in the U.S., or one in 78, received at least one foreclosure filing during that period. Dennis Norman Last month I wrote about a new policy implemented by Fannie Mae that would “lock-out” borrowers from getting a Fannie-Mae insured loan for 7 years if they did a “strategic default” or otherwise did not act in good faith and were foreclosed upon. In a nut shell, the borrower that Fannie Mae is targeting here is the borrower that has the financial ability to make their payments, accept a loan modification or other “work-out” from Fannie Mae but instead chooses just to walk away from their home and letting the lender foreclose. In addition to locking Continue Reading → Dennis Norman For way too long I’ve been writing about record, or near- record, levels of foreclosures and mortgage delinquencies. My ongoing concern about this, in terms of the housing market, is that I just don’t see how we are going to have a sustainable recovery of the housing market while we have 1 in 8 homeowners with a mortgage in the U.S. currently either delinquent on their mortgage or in some stage of the foreclosure process. Lately there has appeared to be some leveling off of mortgage delinquencies and foreclosure growth is at a slowing rate, both Continue Reading → Dennis Norman I may be getting desperate to find something good to write about with regard to the Housing Market, but nonetheless I found some good news today! According to a report titled “Foreign Investment in U.S. Real Estate” that was released recently by the National Association of REALTORS®, investment in residential real estate in the U.S. by foreigners shot up by almost 80% for the 12-month period ending April 2010 from the 12 month period ending April 2009. For the 12 month period ending April 2010 foreign purchases of residential real estate in the U.S. totaled $64 Continue Reading → Dennis Norman Homeowners’ mortgage delinquency rates increased in May 2.3 percent from April rising to 9.2 percent of all mortgages being delinquent. This information comes from a report issued by LPS Applied Analytics, one of the largest mortgage servicers in the U.S. According to the report there are, as of May 31, 2010, 7.3 million home mortgages currently in some stage of delinquency. After seeing a couple of months of improvement there was a turn for the worse in May of the “deterioration ratio”, the reltionship between the number of loans going to a “worse” status for every Continue Reading → Dennis Norman While there has been much discussion about the causes and effects of the Housing Boom as well as the Bust (including by yours truly in prior posts) I don’t think we need to refrain from continuing to examine this part of history that is affecting millions of people across the country. Perhaps we can learn some lessons from this that will help us avoid another such collapse of the housing market in the future. My topic today actually has a silver lining of sorts. The topic is debt and how so many homeowners across the country Continue Reading → Dennis Norman There was no question in my mind that home sales would plummet after the April 30th deadline to buy a home and qualify for the home-buyer tax credit passed, the only question was how bad? Today the National Association of REALTORS released it’s Pending Home Sales Index for May showing a decrease of 30.0 percent in the index from April (seasonally adjusted) and a 15.9 percent increase from May 2009. In my past articles I have spoke of a “sugar-rush” created in the market by the tax credits and the sudden slow-down after that wears off…we are Continue Reading → Dennis Norman Average discount on Foreclosure and Bank-Owned Homes is 27 Percent This morning RealtyTrac released a report stating that 31 percent of all residential sales in the first quarter of 2010 were foreclosure homes or bank-owned homes. They are reporting 233,000 foreclosure and bank-owned homes sold during first quarter 2010 at an average price discount of 27 percent (based upon average sale price of non-foreclosure properties). This data is fairly consistent with date from the National Association of REALTORS which reported there were right at 1 million existing homes sold in the first quarter of 2010 and Continue Reading → Dennis Norman This morning S&P/Case-Shiller Index report for April was released showing that theannual growth rates of all 20 Metro Area’s their reports cover improved in April compared to March 2010. The 10-city composite is up 4.6 percent from the year before and the 20-city composite is up 3.8 percent from the year before. However, in spite of this little bit of encouragement, David Blitzer, Chairman of the Standard & Poor’s Index Committee casts a negative light on the market by pointing out the, while this report does show some price gains, “many of the gains are modest Continue Reading → Dennis Norman While there are many factors that go into what makes for a good or bad housing market and ultimately how well an investment in real estate will do in a market, two things in my book are key; population growth and job growth. Actually job growth brings population growth so perhaps it is the most important factor, but I think one could argue that population growth also brings jobs. Those states that, for one reason or another, attract people to live there (ie; no, or low state income tax, good public education, Continue Reading → Dennis Norman According to a report issued by Radar Logic Incorporated government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) and Federal agencies involved in housing finance currently have an inventory of over 200,000 repossessed homes. Being the largest owner of foreclosed homes in the U.S. gives the government a lot of power and influence over the housing market for years to come as they will generate significant pressure on home prices as they sell off foreclosed homes in the coming years. Foreclosed homes currently sell at significant discounts to the unpaid balances of the mortgages they back, generating a loss for the seller Continue Reading → Dennis Norman I spent this morning reading a sobering and, quite frankly depressing, report issued by the Center for Responsible Lending that focused on the demographics of people losing their homes as a result of foreclosure. The report is done well and looks at the impact of foreclosures on different races and ethnicity’s and then addresses what they believe to be the cause of this crisis. While the reports main subject was eye opening, what really got my attention as I went through the report were some of the facts and figures being quoted. This caused me to Continue Reading → Dennis Norman So, you have the money to pay on your ‘underwater’ mortgage, or to afford the reduced payment amount offered to you under the HAMP program, but think, rather than throw good money after bad you’ll just do like so many borrowers are doing and ‘walk-away‘? Well, if you have any plans to buy a house again in, say the next seven years, particularly with a Fannie Mae loan, think again. Today Fannie Mae announced policy changes to “encourage borrowers to work with their servicers”. These policy changes include, a seven-year “lock-out” period for borrowers that Continue Reading → Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have become two of the nation’s largest landlords. Both institutions took over a foreclosed home roughly every 90 seconds during the first three months of the year. As of the end of March, they owned over 160,000 houses. The inventory of Fannie and Freddie continue to increase, but their inventory is only a portion of the total foreclosures. The worst loans were made outside of Fannie and Freddie by banks, thrifts or other private label institutions. Most foreclosures are heavily concentrated in a few key states: Florida, Arizona, Nevada, California and Michigan. With unemployment hovering Continue Reading → Dennis Norman While foreclosure activity for the U.S. in May decreased by 3 percent according to a report released by RealtyTrac, the news was much worse for the St. Louis metro area, and Missouri as a whole. Every County in the St. Louis metro area, on the Missouri side of the river, experienced an increase in foreclosures in May from a year ago, and six of the nine counties contained in the report had an increase in May 2010 from the prior month. On the Illinois side of the river things looked slightly better with 3 of 7 Continue Reading → The U.S. Census Bureau and US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) issued a their report on New Residential Construction for May 2010 showing a decrease in building permits and a decrease in new home starts from April. The report shows the following: Building permits issued for single-family residences in May were at an annual rate of 438,000 which is 9.9 percent below the revised April rate of 486,000 and an increase of 3.1 percent from a year ago when the rate was 425,000. Housing starts for single-family residences in May were at an annual rate of 468,000 Continue Reading → Dennis Norman Will the Bears or Bulls prevail in 2010? As the real estate market is beginning to show signs that we are “bottoming out” and that the down-slide is leveling off the discussion has become what the rest of 2010 holds in store. Some say we are entering a Bull market and expect prices to increase from the depressed levels they have reached citing the greatly increased affordability of homes and record low interest rates; others say we are entering a Bear market and that over-supply in the market, largely a result of record foreclosures, will Continue Reading → Dennis Norman The good news is, foreclosure activity for the U.S. in May decreased by 3 percent according to a report released by RealtyTrac. The bad news is, May marked the 15 th consecutive month where the overall foreclosure activity has surpassed 300,000 actions; that’s about 4 million foreclosures in the past 15 months. For May there were foreclosure filings reported on 322,920 properties in the U.S., a 3 percent decrease from April but a 1 percent increase from May 2009. One in every 400 U.S. housing units received a foreclosure filing during the month of Continue Reading → Dennis Norman According to data from NeighborWorks America, a national nonprofit organization created by Congress to provide community-based revitalization efforts, every 13 seconds in America, there is another foreclosure filing. This means there are more than 6,600 home foreclosure filings per day and currently, more than 4.5 million households are at risk of foreclosure. Unfortunately there is no end in site as industry experts are predicting 1.5 – 2.0 million new foreclosures in 2010 and as many as a total of 8.1 million by 2012. This many people in financial distress provides great opportunity for loan modification scam Continue Reading → Dennis Norman A report released by CoreLogic showed the St. Louis metro area to have a foreclosure rate in April of 1.49 percent up slightly from March’s revised rate of 1.45 percent and an increase of 34.2 percent from the year prior when the rate was 1.11 percent. The national foreclosure rate for April remains over twice the rate of St. Louis at 3.20 percent and was an increase of 30.1 percent from a year ago when the national foreclosure rate was 2.46 percent. For the State of Missouri the April foreclosure rate was 1.33 percent, a 30.4 Continue Reading → UPDATE- June 2, 2010: The National Association of REALTORS obtained answers from the Treasury Department on 3 common questions about HAFA: agents are not permitted to rebate a portion of their commission to the buyer, sellers who are real estate agents must list their home for sale with another broker, not their own broker, and the incentive allowed for subordinate lien holders (6% of any one subordinate lien, up to a total of $6,000 for all subordinate liens) is a hard cap and may not be supplemented from any source. Dennis Norman In March I did an update on Continue Reading → Dennis Norman Today the S&P/Case-Shiller Index report for the first quarter of 2010 was released showing that the U.S. National Home Price Index fell 3.2 percent in the first quarter of 2010, but remains above it’s level from a year-earlier. In March, 13 of the 20 MSA’s covered by the Case-Shiller report, as well as both the 10-city and 20-city composites, were down for the month however both the composites as well as 10 of the 20 MSA’s showed year-over-year gains. The report cites the end of the tax incentives and the increasing foreclosure rate as reasons the Continue Reading → New Survey Finds 76 Percent of Consumers now Believe Renting to Be a Better Option Over Homeownership Advantages Cited Include Flexibility to Move to a Different Location with New Job Opportunities Dennis Norman Last month I did a post addressing housing affordability, the cost of renting versus owning a home, and whether the real estate market over the past couple of years was causing the idea of home ownership as the “Great American Dream to “lose some of it’s sizzle? For this reason I found a survey, conducted by Harris Interactive and commissioned by the National Apartment Association, Continue Reading → Dennis Norman I know it looks like I’m doing my second post today on the same topic, but I’m really not……my post earlier today was about the rate of mortgage delinquency, which can be defined as homeowners that are late, to varying degrees, on their house payments. This post is about mortgage default rates, which is homeowners that are over 90 days late on mortgage payments, have filed bankruptcy, are in foreclosure or on whom the lender has written off part or all of the balance of the loan. In other words these are the borrowers Continue Reading → 1st Quarter Delinquencies; Up? Down? He said – She Said… If you frequent this site, then you may recall that a little over a week ago (May 10th to be exact) I wrote a post that said the delinquency rate for homeowners mortgages had dropped in the first quarter of this year, the first drop since 2006. Now the post title says delinquencies have increased, so what gives? Well, for one thing, different sources of information. The “good” delinquency report came from TransUnion and they get their data by doing a “random sampling” of their database of 27 million Continue Reading → Dennis Norman In an effort to “support overall market stability and reinforce the importance of borrowers working with their lenders when they have difficulty paying their mortgages”, Fannie Mae has eased their policies with regard to the eligibility of borrowers to obtain a new mortgage loan after having a short-sale or deed-in-lieu of foreclosure. The “waiting period” that someone must wait before getting a new mortgage after a short-sale or deed-in-lieu has been shortened in certain situations. Changes to the Waiting Period After a Short-Sale or Deed-in-Lieu of Foreclosure: Deed-In-Lieu of Foreclosure Current waiting period – 4 years Continue Reading → Dennis Norman Consistent with the report on mortgage delinquencies from LPS that I wrote about last week, today TransUnion released it’s report on mortgage delinquencies showing they fell 1.74 percent in the first quarter of this year, which is the first quarterly decline since 2006. This is good news, however, not to rain on the parade, but we do need to remember that the 4th quarter of 2009 had a record-setting mortgage delinquency rate so to have the rate for the following quarter drop simply means, if you want to do the glass half-empty thing, this quarter didn’t Continue Reading → Dennis Norman A report published by Lender Processing Services (LPS) analyzing homeowner’s performance on their mortgages as of March 2010 shows that, while foreclosure and mortgage delinquency rates are still near record levels, the pace may be slowing with fewer new loans becoming delinquent and an increase in the number of people bringing their loans current. Fewer Borrowers Are Going From Current To Delinquent – The dark blue line on the chart below represents the number of “new” delinquencies for each period, and as you can see, the number dropped sharply in March for people that moved Continue Reading → |
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