By Dennis Norman, on November 23rd, 2022 Is the St Louis real estate market going to crash? The national news is filled lately with reports of slowing housing markets throughout the country, increasing inventories, falling sales and prices. Some prognosticators are predicting some metro areas will see home prices fall by as much as 40 or 50 percent. Is the St Louis real estate market on a similar trajectory?? While I can’t predict the future, I can share data to help you see where the St Louis real estate market is currently as well as where the data shows it’s headed.
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By Dennis Norman, on November 11th, 2022 Below is our St Louis Real Estate Market Report for October 2022 for the City and County of St Louis combined. You can access the full infographic, containing data for St Charles, Jefferson and Franklin Counties as well by clicking on the image below.
St Louis Real Estate Report for October 2022
(click on infographic for complete report including other counties)
By Dennis Norman, on April 29th, 2022 Last week there were 551 new contracts written for the sale of listings in the St Louis 5-county core market down over thirty-six percent (31.3%) from the week before when there were 802 new contracts written, according to the STL Real Estate Trends Report, exclusively available from MORE, REALTORS®. The new sales activity last week was down even more (nearly 36%) from the same week a year ago when there were 851 new contracts written on listings. There is no doubt this is the result of mortgage interest rates which have nearly doubled in the last 15 months.
New listings on the other hand increased last week to 851 from 618 the week before. The new listing activity is pretty much in line with the same week a year ago when there were 858 new listings. If this trend continues the listing supply will likely increase significantly. Given that the for the 5-county core market its been under 1 month for a long time, it can afford to increase some.
The current week will be very telling. When we see data next week from this week, if the numbers are similar to what we saw last week, it’s a likely indicator of a market shift to some extent. Time will tell..
Continue reading “New Sales Last Week Declined Over Thirty Percent From The Week Before“
By Dennis Norman, on April 19th, 2022 Even with the high rate of inflation, rising interest rates and general unrest in the economy, during the past two weeks there were more new contracts written on listings than there were new listings. According to the STL Real Estate Trends Report, exclusively available from MORE, REALTORS®, during the last two weeks there were 1,496 new contracts accepted on listings in the St Louis 5-County core market while there were 1,432 new listings during the same period. While there were only 4.5% more sales than listings, given the fact we are already in a low-inventory market, this is fairly significant.
STL Real Estate Trends Report
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By Dennis Norman, on October 13th, 2021 The St Louis housing market appears to be cooling off slightly with fewer home sales last month than a year ago in 3 of the 5 St Louis area counties that make up the St Louis 5-county core real estate market. As the charts below illustrate, the decline in the overall St Louis market was very slight, with 3,164 homes sold last month just 11 sales fewer than September last year when there were 3,715 homes sold in the St Louis5-county core market. The charts have complete details but below is a recap of home sales and prices by county for last month versus September 2020:
- St Louis City & County – These two counties combined are the only in the core market to see an increase in sales last month from a year ago. Last month there were 1,710 homes sold, an increase of 4.6% from a year ago when there were 1,634 homes sold. Last month the median price of homes sold was $247,000 and increase of nearly 7.5% from last year when it was $229,900.
- Franklin County – Last month there were 127 homes sold, a decrease of 13.6% from a year ago when there were 147 homes sold. Last month the median price of homes sold was $227,050 and increase of nearly 14.5% from last year when it was $198,300.
- Jefferson County – Last month there were345 homes sold, a decrease of 6.8% from a year ago when there were 370 homes sold. Last month the median price of homes sold was $229,000 and increase of nearly 9.0% from last year when it was $210,000.
- St Charles County – Last month there were 617 homes sold, a decrease of 10.8% from a year ago when there were 684 homes sold. Last month the median price of homes sold was $303,000 and increase of nearly 12.2% from last year when it was $270,000.
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Continue reading “St Louis Area Housing Market Report For September“
By Dennis Norman, on May 12th, 2021 In spite of the challenge of a low-inventory housing market, St Louis City and County, St Charles County and Franklin County all saw double-digit increases in the number of homes sold in April while Jefferson County saw a double digit decline. As the charts below illustrate, the median price of homes sold in those counties increased from a year ago in all the counties, two of them in the double digits.
Not all housing data is the same….nor accurate for that matter…
One thing worth noting is that there are housing market reports out there from many different sources, including many credible ones that may or may not be accurate. In most cases this is not due to an error on the part of the person or entity sharing the data but a result of either bad data, inaccurate data or misinterpreted data. For example, when preparing to write this article I noticed two different reports on “St Louis” home prices for homes sold in April. One, which indicated it was for St Louis City and County combined, reported $250,000 and one which reported the “St Louis area” was $266,000. In the case of the latter, my first guess was that they were reporting data for the St Louis MSA but when I checked that the actual sold price in April was only $223,750 so I have no idea where the data came from. For the former, the $250,000 median price is not only higher than the median price for St Louis City and County, it’s higher than the median price for the whole MSA and while the source is indicated, I’m not sure how this number was arrived at.
So what does it matter?
In the crazy market we are in where buyers are getting in bidding wars to get a home, I think it’s more important than ever to have good, relevant and accurate data available to your agent so your agent can help you make an informed decision. You ultimately may decide to pay above what you think the current value of the home is but it would help to know what the real value is. If you look at my chart below for St Louis City and County you’ll see the median price of homes sold in April was $230,000 which is quite different than the $250,000 price and $266,000 I saw reported elsewhere. Would being $20,000 – $36,000 off on the value matter to you? I think it might.
So how do I know I’m right?
Well, for starters I’m a data junky and for the past dozen or so years I’ve probably spent, on average about a dozen hours a week or more studying market data for St Louis. In addition, for the past 6 or 7 years we have worked to develop our own proprietary software to compile and report housing data and are constantly checking and double checking the output. Finally, we have a very credible source for data, the REALTOR® MLS and we constantly update and check the data. Put all of this together and while there’s no way to say it’s 100% correct, but I’m confident it’s about as close as you can get.
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Continue reading “St Louis Area Housing Market Report For April“
By Dennis Norman, on February 21st, 2021 The St Louis real estate market has started off 2021 strong, but is a change coming? Closings of home sales in January were strong with more sales closing than in January of last year, but with everything going and the uncertainty of the economy will it continue? I address both the current state of the St Louis real estate market, as well as discuss our “leading indicator” data which gives us a glimpse of where the market is headed in the St Louis Real Estate Market Update video you can access below.
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By Dennis Norman, on February 18th, 2021 The St Louis real estate market has slowed a little in February thus far. As the Local Market Trends reports (availably exclusively from MORE, REALTORS® ) show, new contracts written on listings as well as new listings in St Louis 5-County Core market, were down in each of the first two weeks of February both from the prior week as well as from the same period a year ago.
New contracts written (new sales):
As the reports below show, there were 590 new contracts written (new sales) on homes during the 2nd week of February which was 13% fewer contracts than were written the same week a year ago and 7% fewer than the prior week.
New listings:
As the reports below illustrate, there were 537 new listings of homes during the 2nd week of February which was 9% fewer new listings than during the same period a year ago and 8% fewer new listings than the prior week.
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Local Market Trends – New contracts written on homes
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Local Market Trends – New listings
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By Dennis Norman, on January 29th, 2021 The residential real estate market in counties in the Missouri portion of the St Louis metropolitan area appear to be outperforming the St Louis MSA counties in Illinois, according to the latest New Contracts Report below, exclusively from MORE, REALTORS®. As the report shows, for the most recent week reported, new contracts written on residential listings were up 14% for the St Louis MSA as a whole from the same week a year ago, but most of the increase in sales was in the Missouri portion of the MSA. Overall, in the St Louis MSA, there were 105 more new sales in the most recent week vs the same time a year ago and 97 of the increased sales were in counties located in Missouri with the remaining 8 being from counties located in Illinois.
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St Louis MSA Counties – New Contracts on Home Listings
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By Dennis Norman, on January 13th, 2021 During the final days of December and the first couple of January, there were 393 new contracts written on homes that were for sale, an increase of 20% over the same period a year ago. As the New Contracts Report below shows (availablle exclusively from MORE, REALTORS®) all 5 counties in the 5-County Core St Louis market saw an increase in new contracts written over the same period a year ago. Franklin County saw the largest increase at 50%.
New Contracts On Homes For Sale
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By Dennis Norman, on November 29th, 2020 I think just about everyone that is trying to buy or sell a home in St Louis or even thinking about it, is well aware that we have been in a strong real estate market here in St Louis for some time now. The St Louis real estate market has favored sellers for the past several years largely due to a low supply of homes for sale and continuing demand by home buyers. The question I’m often asked though, especially right now with so much going on in our country right now that could impact the economy (COVID-19 and the Presidential election are the two biggies) is “will the strong home sale in St Louis continue?”.
To answer the question, being the Chief Data Nerd at MORE, REALTORS, I naturally turned to the proprietary software we have developed to help our agents answer questions like this for their clients. Based upon the data I’m sharing below, I would say the short answer to the question is that St Louis home sales appear to be poised to continue at a historically strong rate, at least for the near future. Now for the caveats, of which there are two big ones: the first is that this is contingent upon listing inventory as if there is nothing to buy it doesn’t matter how many buyers you have, and the second is absent something dramatic happening to the economy to really rock the boat. For the former question, I’ll address that in the next day or so with an article in which I’ll look at the listing inventory trend for St Louis.
Leading Indicators…
Looking at how many sales closed is helpful to see how the market is doing, but it’s much more advantageous and accurate to look at the current activity in the market, the leading indicators if you will, which are new contracts written on listings. Our exclusive Leading Indicators reports below show that all 5 counties in the St Louis Core market saw an increase in the number of new contracts written in the past week from the same week a year ago, in fact, overall a 21% increase. The second report below shows the same data versus the prior week and it shows an overall decrease of 10% in the number of new contracts from the week before with 3 of the five counties showing a decrease, but given that we are headed toward winter and the holidays this is normal. Finally, the chart at the bottom, another exclusive feature of MORE, REALTORS, which illustrates the prior 12-month home sales for each month in the past 5 years, clearly indicates an upward trend. For the 12-month period ending November 30 (which isn’t even over yet), there have been 28,153 homes sold, an increase of nearly 5% from a year ago.
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Continue reading “St Louis Home Sales – No end in sight?“
By Dennis Norman, on May 14th, 2020 The St Louis real estate market continues to be on the upswing and recovering from the impact of COVID-19. The pandemic did slow the St Louis real estate market down for a while but it appears to be recovering quite quickly. Get all of this and more in this month’s update.
Interest rates, the “cherry on top”. In case the market rebound isn’t enough, mortgage interest rates are at near historic lows making now a great time, and an affordable time, to buy a house if you are in a position to do so.
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By Dennis Norman, on April 10th, 2020 The St Louis real estate market is off to a good start for 2020 however, it is getting impacted by COVID-19. This month’s market update video includes market data through the end of March but, even though about 2/3 of March was after COVID-19 began disrupting things here, the effects really cannot be seen yet. A couple of weeks ago I did a Special Report video that was specifically about the impact of coronavirus on the St Louis real estate market, but it won’t be until our May market report that we really see the full impact of it on the market.
Rates are back down after a brief stint on the rise. The mortgage market is a little volatile now given all that is going on but, so far, so good.
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By Dennis Norman, on March 14th, 2020 The St Louis real estate market is off to a great start for 2020! Home sales year to date has outpaced sales from the same time a year ago and everything points to 2020 being a good year for real estate! The $64 question is, however, what effect the Coronavirus may have on the market. Only time will tell, but my thoughts are that while there will no doubt be some negative impact on the St Louis housing market as a result of Coronavirus (COVID-19) its impact will be much less than what we have seen of late in the stock market.
I don’t believe we will see any sort of significant decline in home prices but we will likely see a “pause” in sales as some buyers decide to wait and see how things go. No doubt some of the potential buyers that will be affected are those whose jobs or income are impacted as a result of Coronavirus, such as people in the travel, hospitality, sports, and entertainment industries.
Rates jumped up last week but are still attractive. The week before last, St Louis mortgage interest rates hit an all-time low as buyers were locking in interest rates on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage as low as 2.95%! This past week, however, that changed and the rates shot up by as much as 1% and not as a result of the stock market or coronavirus as much as from just too much demand. Apparently the investors that purchase the loans from lenders around the country got overwhelmed as the volume set record highs so they raised rates. Even with the increase, rates are still historically good.
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By Dennis Norman, on February 14th, 2020 As you may have noticed, I’ve been pretty optimistic about the outlook for the real estate market this year however, that is not always the case as I call it like I see it. The reason for my optimism is based upon what a true data geek like myself would base it upon, data! So, what’s the data that has me believing 2020 will be a good year for the housing market in St Louis and beyond? Several things:
- As I have been reporting here for the past couple of years now, mortgage delinquency and foreclosure rates have continued to decline which show the strength of the economy as a whole as well as the housing industry.
- As the US Economic Indicators charts below show, since peaking around 2010, the unemployment rate, 30-year mortgage rate and mortgage delinquency rates have all steadily declines to either record lows or at least the lowest rate in recent history.
- As the St Louis unemployment, home prices and rent chart below shows, unemployment in St Louis has fallen to the lowest level in decades and the relationship between home prices and rents show home prices lagging behind rents indicating that we’ll likely see continued, good housing appreciation rates.
- As the 30-year fixed rate mortgage chart below shows, mortgage rates are at near record low rates giving buyers much more buying power. In my market update video I shared here a day or two ago I illustrate just how much more buying power this translates into.
- As I reported last week, St Louis home sales last year managed to top the prior year slightly, in spite of the low-inventory market we have been stuck in. This shows the demand that is out there.
- As I reported earlier this week, the home sales trend for 2020 in St Louis is in positive territory has well.
Continue reading “Why I’m Bullish On Real Estate For 2020“
By Dennis Norman, on February 12th, 2020 The St Louis real estate market is off to a good start for 2020! The home sales trends going into this year are encouraging and, coupled with the strong economy we are in, has me very confident that 2020 is going to be a great year for the St Louis real estate market!
MORE buying power!
In addition, long term mortgage interest rates just dropped again giving buyers more buying power! See the example in my video of just how much less a home will cost you today payment-wise than 14 months ago, even after appreciation has pushed prices up.
Find out more, as well as get information on some of St Louis’s best resources for home buyers and sellers in our just-released market update video.
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By Dennis Norman, on January 17th, 2020 The St Louis real estate market had a strong finish in 2019! One of the many great things for the St Louis housing market about a strong finish in 2019 is that 2020 begins strongly as well! January will be a key month in terms of whether the trend will continue or whether December’s uptick was an isolated event.
Another encouraging thing about the real estate market is that long term mortgage interest rates remain low! See in the video just how powerful this is! How a house today will actually cost you less than a little over a year ago, even after factoring in home price appreciation!
Find out more, as well as get information on some of St Louis’s best resources for home buyers and sellers in our just-released market update video.
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By Dennis Norman, on December 26th, 2019 After peaking in May 2018 with 27,829 homes sold in the prior 12-months, the St Louis home sales trend has trended downward to 26,830 homes sold in the 12-month period ended November 30, 2019. This marks the lowest home sales trend for the St Louis 5-County core market in over three years.
In spite of this statistical fact, it should be noted that the difference in home sales for the 12-month period ended November 30, 2019, from the same period a year ago, is just under 3%, so it is a pretty modest decline.
St Louis 5-County Core Market Home Sales Trend – Past 5 Years
(Click on chart for live, interactive chart)
By Dennis Norman, on December 9th, 2019 Between low, low-interest rates and the seasonally low home prices, there is no better time to buy a home! Just like every year, home prices are declining and will continue to decline over the next few weeks until they hit their “winter bottom” and then start the climb back to spring prices. All the while, mortgage interest rates remain low, giving you more buying power than a year ago, even at the higher home prices!
Find out more, as well as get information on some of St Louis’s best resources for home buyers and sellers in our just-released market update video.
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By Dennis Norman, on November 14th, 2019 After peaking in May 2018 with 27,829 homes sold in the prior 12-months, the St Louis home sales trend has trended downward until hitting 26,852 homes sold in the 12-month period ended August 31, 2019. However, for the two months since this low, St Louis home sales have trended upward slightly, reaching 26,888 homes sold in the 12-month period ended October 31, 2019.
St Louis 5-County Core Market Home Sales Trend – Past 5 Years
By Dennis Norman, on November 11th, 2019 The St Louis real estate market trends remain steady and consistent! The St Louis home sales and price trends give me an optimistic outlook for next year. Low-interest rates continue to offset some of the cost of the increases in home prices that have occurred. Find out more, as well as get information on some of St Louis’s best resources for home buyers and sellers in our just-released market update video.
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By Dennis Norman, on October 19th, 2019 The St Louis real estate market is slowing down somewhat as it does every year around this time, but the market still looks good. Low-interest rates continue to offset some of the cost of the increases in home prices that have occurred. Find out more, as well as get information on some of St Louis’s best resources for home buyers and sellers in our just-released market update video.
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By Dennis Norman, on August 23rd, 2019 The St Louis real estate market is still going strong and interest rates are dirt cheap! Not much has changed over the past few months in the St Louis housing market in terms of home prices and sales, prices continue to rise at normal, healthy rates and sales continue along at a rate a little shy of last year. What has changed dramaticaly over the past 9 or 10 months however, are interest rates. The have dropped by a third and in this months market update video I do a little math and show just how much that impacts home buyers in a positive way! Find out more, as well as get information on some of St Louis’s best resources for home buyers and sellers in our just-released market update video.
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By Dennis Norman, on July 13th, 2019
The St Louis real estate market continues to show strength and favors sellers, however, buyers have shown they are price-sensitive.
While most of the St Louis market remains a seller’s market based upon the lack of inventory for sale, this does not mean (and the data backs it up) that it’s a blank check for sellers. Buyers in the market appear to be savvy and are price sensitive. In fact, one frustration I hear from agents with over-priced listings is that, not only do they only have few showings, they are not receiving offers. I think the issue is buyers don’t want to tie themselves up negotiating with a seller that, from the outset, seems unreasonable for fear that while tied up with them a real opportunity will come along and they will miss out. Therefore, for sellers to take full advantage of this seller’s market, they need to price their home appropriately from the start.
Find out more, as well as get information on some of St Louis’s best resources for home buyers and sellers in our just-released market update video. [xyz-ips snippet=”Market-Update-Video–Inline-Link”]
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The St Louis real estate market continues to show strength and favors sellers, however, buyers have shown they are price-sensitive.
While most of the St Louis market remains a seller’s market based upon the lack of inventory for sale, this does not mean (and the data backs it up) that it’s a blank check for sellers. Buyers in the market appear to be savvy and are price sensitive. In fact, one frustration I hear from agents with over-priced listings is that, not only do they only have few showings, they are not receiving offers. I think the issue is buyers don’t want to tie themselves up negotiating with a seller that, from the outset, seems unreasonable for fear that while tied up with them a real opportunity will come along and they will miss out. Therefore, for sellers to take full advantage of this seller’s market, they need to price their home appropriately from the start.
Find out more, as well as get information on some of St Louis’s best resources for home buyers and sellers in our just-released market update video.[xyz-ips snippet=”Market-Update-Video–Inline-Link”]
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By Dennis Norman, on June 15th, 2019 Year to date, through the end of May, there were 9,929 homes sold in the St Louis 5-County Core market, a decline of 5.2% from this time last year when 10,477 homes had sold. This marks the lowest YTD home sales through May since May 2015, when there were 9,262 homes sold. As the second chart below illustrates, the St Louis home sales trend (trailing 12 months and represented by the dark green line) peaked in October 2018 with 26,032 homes sold in the prior 12 months but then stalled and has begun a slight downward trend which continues with 25,433 homes sold in the 12 month period ending in May 2019.
Meanwhile, St Louis home prices continue to rise with the median price of homes sold in the past 12 months in the 5-County Core market increasing 5.21% from the prior 12-month period. As the table below the charts shows, the median price of homes sold in the St Louis 5-County Core market during the most recent 12-month period was $199,900, an increase from $190,000 during the prior 12-month period.
The inventory of homes for sale has declined even further from last month, with just s 1.81 month supply of homes for sale in the St Louis 5-County Core Market. The low inventory is the key reason behind the lower home sales as there just aren’t enough homes for sale to satisfy the current home buyer demand.
Would-be home sellers are afraid to list their homes…
The low supply of homes for sale, coupled with the high demand, has many homeowners reluctant to list their homes for sale for fear they will sell but won’t be able to find a home to buy. This is why we developed our “Guaranteed No Sale” program, something that protects sellers from becoming “homeless”. It allows a seller to list their home with the confidence they won’t be obligated to sell if they are not successful in finding a home to buy. You can find out more at GuaranteedNoSale.com.
Continue reading “St Louis Home Sales Continue Downward Trend – YTD Home Sales Lowest In 4 Years“
By Dennis Norman, on May 16th, 2019
The number of home sales in St Louis may be down from the recent past but it’s still a Seller’s market!
The lack of home sales in St Louis is certainly not a result of a lack of interest, on the part of home buyers, but more a lack of sellers. This is clear in the data I presented in this months market update video. Find out more, as well as get information on some of St Louis’s best resources for home buyers and sellers in our just-released market update video. [xyz-ips snippet=”Market-Update-Video–Inline-Link”]
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By Dennis Norman, on April 12th, 2019
Home sales in St Louis are on a slower pace than this time last year.
The St Louis real estate market is still performing well, but just not at the same sales rate as last year thus far. Find out more, as well as get information on some of St Louis’s best resources for home buyers and sellers in our just-released market update video. [xyz-ips snippet=”Market-Update-Video–Inline-Link”]
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By Dennis Norman, on March 14th, 2019
The St Louis real estate market is still doing well however, home sales are off to a slower start this year than last year.
Find out more, as well as get information on some of St Louis’s best resources for home buyers and sellers in our just-released market update video.
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By Dennis Norman, on February 15th, 2019
The St Louis real estate market is off to a little slower start this year and there are some indicators that we may be in for a little price correction in some areas.
Find out more, as well as get information on some of St Louis’s best resources for home buyers and sellers in our just-released market update video.
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By Dennis Norman, on January 24th, 2019
The St Louis real estate market closed out another good year with
2018 finishing just slightly behind the year before in terms of home sales. Thus far, it looks like 2019 is off to a good start as well although higher interest rates will, no doubt, cause a little tension in the market this year.
Find out more, as well as get information on some of St Louis’s best resources for home buyers and sellers in our just-released market update video.
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