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Dennis Norman 1 in 3 Think Worst Is Yet to Come, While 38% Think Local Home Values Have Reached Bottom According to the second quarter 2010 Zillow Homeowner Confidence Survey, one-third (33 percent) of homeowners feel home values in their local market have not reached bottom, while 38 percent believe their market has in fact hit bottom. Editor’s note – Last month we published an article about HVCC which drew quite a few comments and responses….one such response was from veteran appraiser Paul Collins in which he shares his frustration with the state of the industry and the impact of lenders and legislation on his industry. Our thanks to Paul for allowing us to publish his thoughts.. The good ole days of direct communication and the new day we are “living” both have the same problem. Appraisers are not a valued part of the process because there are no consequences for bad lending decisions. The last Continue Reading → Dennis Norman NAR Pending Home Sales Index at Lowest Level Since Index Began in 2001 At dropping 30 percent in May as a result of the rush to buy a home before the April 30th tax credit deadline, the National Association of REALTORS Pending Home Sales Index for June shows a further decline of 2.6 percent in the index in June (seasonally adjusted) which is 18.6 percent below June 2009. While the decrease in home sales was expected, I’m a little surprised we are running so far behind last year (which, might I remind you, wasn’t that great of Continue Reading → Dennis Norman Report looks at impact of the BP Deepwater Horizon Oil spill on Florida Coastal home values According to a report released this morning by CoreLogic the impact of the BP DeepWater Horizon oil spill on home values in the coastal area’s along the Gulf coast is expected to range from $648 million over one year to as much as $3 billion over five years. This estimate is for the communities that are already impacted by the spill, if the unlikely worst-case scenario occurs and the spill reaches down to the area of the Florida Keys Continue Reading → Dennis Norman This week I attended an event at the St. Louis Association of REALTORS® in which Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for the National Association of REALTORS® was the featured speaker and gave his take on the housing market as well as his housing market outlook. Dennis Norman Asking this question now is about like asking a newly divorced person their thoughts on marriage….nonetheless in challenging times many of us reflect upon our past investment decisions, investment philosophy, etc and see what can be learned from our past to help us in the future. Dennis Norman Last month I said that I expected to see some elevated numbers in the existing home sales report for May and June since this report would reflect the actual closing of the home purchases from buyers that raced to buy before the April 30th home-buyer tax credit deadline. Even though Congress has extended the deadline to close on these purchases until August 31st, the majority of the tax-credit induced sales will have closed by June 30th and therefore be reflected in today’s report which I would say has happened. Today’s existing home sales report from theNational Association Continue Reading → Dennis Norman There was no question in my mind that home sales would plummet after the April 30th deadline to buy a home and qualify for the home-buyer tax credit passed, the only question was how bad? Today the National Association of REALTORS released it’s Pending Home Sales Index for May showing a decrease of 30.0 percent in the index from April (seasonally adjusted) and a 15.9 percent increase from May 2009. In my past articles I have spoke of a “sugar-rush” created in the market by the tax credits and the sudden slow-down after that wears off…we are Continue Reading → Dennis Norman May and June Sales Expected to Remain Elevated as Buyers Rush to Close By June 30th Deadline for Tax Credits. The deadline to buy a home and qualify for the home-buyer tax credit was April 30th so it’s not surprising we saw pending home-sales increase dramatically in March and April as buyers rushed to get “under-contract” before the April 30th deadline. For those home-buyers that were lucky enough to qualify for the home-buyer tax credit they have, unless Congress extends the deadline, until June 30, 2010 to close on the purchase of their home. Therefore, as I Continue Reading → Dennis Norman According to a press release issued by the FBI, nearly 500 people have been arrested in a nationwide mortgage fraud take-down as part of “Operation Stolen Dreams.” This operation was launched on March 1, 2010 and, according to the FBI, has lead to a total of 485 arrests, 330 convictions and the recovery of nearly $11 million. The FBI estimates that losses from a variety of fraud schemes are estimated to exceed $2 billion. Operation Stolen Dreams is the government’s largest mortgage fraud take-down to date. But FBI Director Robert S. Mueller cautioned that there is Continue Reading → UPDATE-July 1- GOOD NEWS! I Stand Corrected! Yesterday, before ending session, the Senate did PASS H.R. 5623 by Unanimous Consent…the bill now goes to the President for his signature and then will extend the closing date until September 30th… Dennis Norman UPDATE-June 30th-As the Willie Nelson song goes. “Turn out the lights, the party’s over”….well at least for now…Today, the last day the Senate is in session before the 4th of July break, there was yet another motion for cloture (to end debate) on H.R. 4213 and once again, like the previous 2 or 3 attempts, Continue Reading → Dennis Norman Today the National Association of REALTORS released it’s Pending Home Sales Index for April showing an increase of 6.0 percent in the index from March (seasonally adjusted) and a whopping 22.4 percent increase from April 2009. This comes on the heels of a 5.3 percent increase in March and an 8.3 percent increase in February. If these were pure “market-driven” sales this would be extremely exciting news and point toward a recovery in the real estate market. Unfortunately, everything I see points to this being driven primarily, if not purely, by the April 30th deadline to Continue Reading → Dennis Norman Today the S&P/Case-Shiller Index report for the first quarter of 2010 was released showing that the U.S. National Home Price Index fell 3.2 percent in the first quarter of 2010, but remains above it’s level from a year-earlier. In March, 13 of the 20 MSA’s covered by the Case-Shiller report, as well as both the 10-city and 20-city composites, were down for the month however both the composites as well as 10 of the 20 MSA’s showed year-over-year gains. The report cites the end of the tax incentives and the increasing foreclosure rate as reasons the Continue Reading → Dennis Norman Sales increased for second consecutive month- With the home-buyer tax credits ending April 30th, it’s not surprising that we saw an increase of home sales in March, and now in April, as buyers rushed to buy before the deadline to have a congract of April 30, 2010. According to the latest report from the National Association of REALTORS(R), existing home sales in the US in April increased 7.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted-annual rate of 5.77 million units in April from a revised level of 5.36 million units in March, and increased 22.8 percent from a year Continue Reading → Dennis Norman As the real estate market and industry continues to struggle to try to pull out of the dumps, another blow could come soon from Congress in the form of new tax burdens on real estate. Congress is proposing that all owners of rental properties be required to complete and file 1099 forms for all service providers that have performed work on their properties, such as electricians, handymen, landscapers, etc. If passed, this would require all landlords, even the smallest of which, to go through additional expense and burden (or face penalties themselves from the IRS) to Continue Reading → Dennis Norman According to a report issued by the National Association of REALTORS, a growing number of metropolitan areas are experiencing price gains from a year ago, while most states have seen healthy gains in home sales from the first quarter of 2009. Here in St. Louis, the median home price for first quarter was $116,100, a 15.1 percent increase from a year ago when the median price was $100,900, however an 8.4 percent decrease from the 4th quarter of 2009 when the median home price for the St. Louis area was $126,800. State-wide, the median home price Continue Reading → Dennis Norman Today the National Association of REALTORS released it’s Pending Home Sales Index for March showing an increase of 5.3 percent in the index from February (seasonally adjusted) and a whopping 21.1 percent increase from March 2009. This follows an 8.3 percent increase in February so it is definitely creating a nice trend that makes me somewhat optimistic. We should remember though, in March and April we are expecting to see home sales spike as buyers rush to buy before the April 30th deadline to have a home under contract to qualify for the homebuyer tax credit. RealtyTrac® released its U.S. Foreclosure Market Report™ for the first quarter of 2010, which shows foreclosure filings — default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions — were reported on 932,234 U.S. properties during the first quarter of 2010, an increase of 16 percent from the first quarter of 2009 (which, I should remind you, was up 24 percent from the first quarter of 2008). According to the report, the 20 metro areas with the highest rates of foreclosures were still contained to four states: California – 10 of the top 20 metro foreclosure rates Florida – 7 of the top Continue Reading → Dennis Norman This morning the S&P/Case-Shiller Index report for February was released showing that, for the first time since December, 2006, the annual rates of change for their two composite home-price indices were positive. The 10-City Composite is up 1.4 percent from a year before and the 20-City Composite is up 0.6 percent from the same time last year. Unfortunately, 11 of the 20 cities included in the 20-City Composite had declines from the prior year, meaning that this positive bit of news is not “market-wide” but is the result of some metros with stronger markets. The United States Attorney’s Office announced today that Aaron Duncan, the former CEO and owner of The Duncan Group, has pleaded guilty to fraud charges involving a $3.9 million investment scheme. According to court documents, Duncan represented that The Duncan Group was involved in real estate investments, including buying, rehabilitating, and selling residential real estate. Duncan solicited investors in Missouri and around the United States to participate in his real estate projects through The Duncan Group by making false representations regarding the security of investments and the rates of returns promised. Bank records revealed that Duncan operated The Duncan Group Continue Reading → Dennis Norman According to the latest report from the National Association of REALTORS(R), existing home sales in the US in March increased 6.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted-annual rate of 5.35 million units in March from a revised level of 5.01 million units in February, and increased 16.1 percent from a year ago when the rate was 4.61 million units (seasonally adjusted). St. Louis Shows Strong Against Other Metros – NAR publishes existing home sales for 20 major metropolitan areas of the U.S. which showed the St. Louis Real Estate Market in a pretty positive light. St. Louis Continue Reading → First-time home buyers comprised an unprecedented 47 percent of the market last year according to a recently published report by the National Association of Realtors (NAR). NAR’s report, 2009 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers, points to the federal tax credit and the historic affordability of housing as the most likely reasons first-time buyers scored so high in sales. According to NAR, housing economists predict that “2010 will be an even bigger year for first-timers.” Who are these people, and what do they want? Most are married – Forty-nine percent are a married couple. Single females comprise a quarter Continue Reading → Dennis Norman I thought I would end the week by giving everyone something to dwell on and contemplate over the weekend. Actually, I set out this morning to do a post about the National Association of REALTORS(R) (NAR) Housing Affordability Index for February which was recently published. As I was reviewing the data in the report I started giving “affordability” a lot of thought, went down a few rabbit trails, did a few hours of research and ended up with an analysis of home affordability. The NAR Report: Since this was the initial topic I thought I should Continue Reading → Dennis Norman Today the National Association of REALTORS released it’s February Pending Home Sales Index showing a increase of 8.2 percent (seasonally adjusted) in the index for the U.S. from January and a 17.3 percent increase from last year. The Midwsest region had the best results with February home sales increasing 21.8 percent from January. Here in St. Louis, home sales in February increased at an even greater rate. The City of St. Louis had the largest 1-month increase at 62.6 percent, followed by Jefferson County with an increase in pending sales of 34.1 percent, St. Charles County Continue Reading → Dennis Norman According to the latest report from the National Association of REALTORS(R), existing home sales in the US in February decreased 0.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted-annual rate of 5.02 million units in February from a revised level of 5.50 million units in January, however this does represent an increase of 7.0 percent from a year ago when the rate was 4.69 million units (seasonally adjusted). February’s Numbers Show Real Estate is “Local” Reinforcing the fact that “all real estate is local” the February Existing Home Sales report paints quite a different picture of the housing market depending Continue Reading → The Internet Crime Complaint Center (IC3) and the Federal Bureau of Investigation have published a report about common real estate scams and rental scams they are finding and how to avoid them. Like most scams there are warning signs and red flags that can help you avoid falling victim; knowing what to look for is key. The IC3 reminds people to be cautious when using the internet to either advertise real estate for sale or rent or to find a property to rent or buy. For Landlords and Sellers of Property: Look out for: Rental scams occur when the victim Continue Reading → Dennis Norman Today the National Association of REALTORS released it’s January Pending Home Sales Index showing a decrease of 7.6 percent in the index from December, 2009 to January 2010 (seasonally adjusted) and a 12.3 percent increase from last year. Here are highlights from the report: January”s pending home sales index (seasonally adjusted) was 90.4 (the index is based upon 100.0 being equal to the average level of sales activity in 2001 which we could call the last “normal” year) which was a decrease of 7.6 percent in the index from December’s revised index of 97.8 and an Continue Reading → Dennis Norman According to a report issued this morning by the the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) St. Louis area home prices increased by 1.32 percent in 2009. Granted that’s not much but, hey, after what we’ve seen the last couple of years in the housing market I think this is very good news. This information comes for the FHFA’s purchase-only price index which is based upon repeat sales of the same single-family properties therefore making it a much more accurate barometer of the market than just looking at median prices of homes sold as many reports do. Continue Reading → Dennis Norman Last week a friend emailed me a link to a video titled “The Indymac Slap in Our Face” that was created by Think Big Work Small. I watched the video which gave a recap of the failure of Indymac bank back resulting in it’s seizure by the FDIC in July, 2008, and the ultimate sale by the FDIC of Indymac Bank to One West Bank in March, 2009. According to the video, One West Bank received a cushy, “sweetheart deal” and implied it was related to the fact that the owners of One West Bank include Continue Reading → There is time left for qualified buyers to take advantage of the 2009 First-Time Home Buyer’s $8,000 Tax Credit & Repeat Home Buyer’s $6,500 Tax Credit. Binding sales contract must be executed by April 30, 2010, the closing can be extended until June 30, 2010. The newly expanded first-time homebuyer and repeat homebuyer tax credit was signed into law a few months ago, but many married, unmarried, or soon to be married tax filers, are confused about claiming these credits. Understandably so. There are numerous scenarios that can come up, e.g. “I am a long-time principal homeowner but my Continue Reading → |
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