First Quarter Home Sales Up From a Year Ago in many Metro Areas Including St. Louis

Dennis Norman

According to a report issued by the National Association of REALTORS, a growing number of metropolitan areas are experiencing price gains from a year ago, while most states have seen healthy gains in home sales from the first quarter of 2009.

Here in St. Louis, the median home price for first quarter was $116,100, a 15.1 percent increase from a year ago when the median price was $100,900, however an 8.4 percent decrease from the 4th quarter of 2009 when the median home price for the St. Louis area was $126,800.  State-wide, the median home price in Missouri for first quarter was $100,800, an increase of 4.6 percent from a year ago when the median price for Missouri was $96,400, but a 17.9 percent decline from the 4th quarter of 2009 when the median home price was $122,800.

Highlights from the Metro report for the first quarter of 2010:

  • 91 out of 152 metropolitan areas showed higher median existing single-family home prices in comparison with the first quarter of 2009, including 29 with double-digit increases; three were unchanged and 58 metros had price declines.
    • In the fourth quarter of 2009,  67 areas reported gains and 123 were down, while only 30 metro areas in third quarter of 2009 showed annual price increases.
  • The national median existing single-family price was fairly flat at $166,100, down 0.7 percent from the first quarter 2009 price of $167,300. The median is where half sold for more and half sold for less. Distressed homes, which typically are discounted by 15 percent relative to traditional homes, accounted for 36 percent of first quarter sales.

To see the complete report for all metro areas click here.

Highlights from the State report for the first quarter of 2010:

  • Total state existing-home sales, including single-family and condo, were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.14 million in the first quarter, down 14.0 percent from 5.97 million in the fourth quarter, 2009.  However, first quarter sales remain 11.4 percent above the 4.61 million-unit level in the first quarter of 2009.
  • Sales increased from a year ago in 44 states and the District of Columbia; 31 states and D.C. saw double-digit gains while two were unchanged and four were down.

To see the complete report for all states click here.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said stabilizing home prices are encouraging. “This flattening in home prices is something we’ve been seeing in all of the home price measures lately, and quite clearly in this metro area price report,” he said. “The tax credit has been very effective in drawing down excess inventory, with about one million additional sales resulting directly from the stimulus.”

St Louis Home Price Index Increased 1.5 Percent In February From Year Ago

Dennis Norman

Report Cautions That Shadow Inventory and End of Tax Credit Program May Result in Further Declines – Predicts a 3.01 Percent Home Price Decline in St. Louis In Next 12 Months.
A report released today by First American CoreLogic shows that national home prices increased 0.3 percent in February 2010 compared to February 2009 and the home price index for St. Louis increased 1.50 percent in February 2010 compared to February 2009

firstamerican corelogic

On a month-over-month basis, the national average home price index fell by 2.0 percent in February 2010 compared to January 2010, which was steeper than the previous one-month decline of 1.6 percent from December to January. Prices are typically weak in the winter months, so seasonal effects may be driving this one-month change.

Highlights from the February 2010 Report:

  • Including distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the national HPI (from April 2006 to February 2010) is -30.6 percent. Excluding distressed properties, the peak-to-current change in the HPI is -21.7 percent.
  • When distressed sales were included, Idaho (-13.7) moved into first place as the top-ranked state for annual price depreciation in February, followed by Nevada (-12.9 percent), Florida (-8.5 percent), Illinois (-8.3) and Oregon (-7.7 percent). All of these states also showed month-over-month decreases in their HPI between January and February. The distressed share in Idaho increased by about 11 percentage points over the past year, pulling down the annual price appreciation. The HPI for Idaho excluding distressed sales showed a much smaller annual decline (-5.2 percent).
  • Excluding distressed sales, the worst five states for year-over-year price declines changes slightly. Nevada (-12.0 percent) is the top decliner, followed by Michigan (-9.1 percent), Florida (-7.5 percent), Arizona (-7.1 percent) and Utah (-5.8 percent).
  • The five best states for year-over-year price appreciation excluding distressed sales are North Dakota, Hawaii, the District of Columbia, California, and Maine.
  • Including distressed sales, 58 of the top 100 CBSAs declined on a year-over-year basis in February. This is down from 65 CBSAs in January. Orlando-Kissimmee, FL held the spot of top decliner, with a 14.8 percent year-over-year decline in February.

What Lies Ahead?

The CoreLogic report forecast was not as optimistic as it has been in the past and is showing a softer recvoery than in previous forecasts. The forecast calls for an increase in the inventory of homes for sale as interest rates are expected to rise, tax credits expire, and slower than expected sales over the winter due to the weather are all adding to the inventory.

Highlights from the forecast:

  • Home prices in St. Louis are epected to deline 3.01 percent in the coming 12 months.
  • After a modest increase this spring and summer, the national single-family combined index is projected to decline by 3.4 percent from February 2010 to February 2011 assuming the expiration of current Federal Housing Stimulus programs.
  • 29 of the 45 largest Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) are projected to experience continued price depreciation on a year-to-year basis according to the current forecast, compared to only 14 out of 45 in last month’s forecast.
  • Markets that are expected to experience the largest amount of price depreciation through February 2011 are Detroit (-16.4 percent), Seattle (-5.8 percent), Atlanta (-4.5 percent), Cleveland (-4.1 percent) and Indianapolis (-3.8 percent). Markets that are expected to experience the biggest appreciation are Denver (5.2 percent), Las Vegas (5.0 percent), Riverside, CA (3.0 percent), and Houston (3.0 percent).
  • The preponderance of distressed sales continues to exert downward pressure on the indices. When distressed sales are excluded from the data, the forecast becomes significantly more optimistic about the future direction of home prices outside of this market segment. The national HPI is projected to increase 4.9 percent year-to-year when these transactions are omitted from the analysis. The same is true of many states and CBSAs. For example, there is a 10-percentage point difference in the year-to-year HPI forecasts for California when distressed sales are included (-1.8 percent) compared to when they are not (8.0 percent.)

St. Louis Home Sales in 2009 show signs of bottom

Dennis Norman

For the St. Louis area 2009 marked another year of “bad” records for the housing market; record numbers of foreclosures, mortgage delinquencies as well as sales numbers and prices lower than we have seen in several years.  However, as I compiled St. Louis area home sales data for 2009 and compared it to the prior two years I realized this is some positive news.  It appears we are perhaps seeing the bottom of the market and a flattening of the downward trends.  

Unfortunately as our national debt balloons out of control, we continue to see double-digit unemployment and for us in St. Louis a continued trend of an inability to attract new companies and jobs to the area, the housing market could quickly take a turn for the worse, but for now lets bask in the glory.

The data I compiled is for the city of St. Louis and counties of St. Louis, St. Charles, Jefferson and Franklin, and is based upon sales data obtained from the local MLS provider, Mid-America Regional Information Systems (MARIS). 

Here are the highlights from my report:

  • There were 20,717 homes sold in 2009, down 1.81 percent from 2008 and down 14.67 percent from 2007
  • The median sales price of homes sold in 2009 was $142,000, down 5.33 percent from 2008 adn down 12.35 percent from 2007
  • The average sales price of homes sold in 2009 was $170,303, down 8.84 percent from 2008 and down 16.62 percent from 2007.
  • The time it took to sell a home in 2009 was an average of 82 days, down 10.87 percent from 2008 and up 1.23 percent from 2007.

st louis home sales 2009 vs 08 and 07

St. Louis Real Estate Market shows signs of stabilizing

Dennis Norman

We are long overdue for some good news on the St. Louis housing market and data from December home sales brought just that. Based upon my comparision of homes sold in December 2009 with the year prior, it appears to me the St. Louis housing market may have found it’s bottom and now be starting to level off.

There are still disturbing aspects of the data, like the fact that for the St. Louis metro area there were almost 8 percent fewer homes sold in December 2009 than in December 2008 but there is light at the end of the tunnel.

The median price of homes sold increased almost 4 percent last month from the year before and the median as well as average time to sell a home both decreased, by 22.54 percent and 10.31 percent respectively.

Another interesting piece of data is that the median list price of the homes sold last month increased 3.71 percent from a year ago, which is almost identical to the amount the sales price increased in the same period. This coupled with the fact that homes continue to sell for about 95 percent of list price indicates that sellers (and listing agents) are being fairly realistic in terms of list price.

“One month does not a trend make”, but hopefully we are on our way to more positive news on the St. Louis housing market.

St Louis Missouri home sale data for December 2009 vs December 2008

St. Louis Real Estate News; St Louis home prices fall in September but projected to increase 2.4 percent in next twelve months

Dennis Norman
Dennis Norman

According to a report issued by First American CoreLogic national home prices continue to decline with their HPI (Loan Performance Home Price Index) declining by 9.8 percent in September 2009 compared with the year before.  If you take the distressed sales out (foreclosures, short sales, etc) the nation decline in HIP for the same period was 6.2 percent.

firstamerican corelogic

St. Louis home prices did better according to the report with the HPI declining 3.85 percent in Sepetember 2009 from the year before.  This is an improvement over August which was down 4.09 percent from the year before.  If we ignore the distressed sales, then the decline for September was 2.10 percent compared to August’s decline of 3.18 percent. Continue reading “St. Louis Real Estate News; St Louis home prices fall in September but projected to increase 2.4 percent in next twelve months

St. Louis Real Estate – St Louis area home price declines vs assessors property values

Dennis Norman
Dennis Norman

In an article this morning on StlToday.com I saw where property values, as determined by the St. Louis CountyAssessors office, declined 6.1 percent from 2007 to 2009.   Hmm, I thought, that sounds pretty good actually, I think the St. Louis housing market would be doing great if that was close to reality.  To see how the actual St. Louis housing market did during the same period I researched the sales prices of homes sold in the St. Louis metro area in 2007 and 2009 then computed the change in value during the period. Continue reading “St. Louis Real Estate – St Louis area home price declines vs assessors property values

Over 30 percent of St. Louis homes for sale have had price cut

Dennis Norman

Dennis Norman

Last week I did a post on another blog about a report that had just been released by Trulia indicating that over 25 percent of the homes listed for sale in the U.S. had experienced a price reduction in the 5-month period from June 1 through October 1st and that the average price reduction was about 10 percent.

Mid America Regional Information Systems MARIS MLSIn an effort to see how things here in St. Louis were stacking up to the national numbers from Trulia, I wanted to assemble the same data, for the same period that Trulia did and see how we compare.  I was able to do this with the help of my friends at Mid-American Regional Information Systems (MARIS), the MLS provider for the St. Louis region. Continue reading “Over 30 percent of St. Louis homes for sale have had price cut

The St. Louis Real Estate Market Bubble and Burst; St. Louis County hurt the worst in the area

Dennis Norman

Dennis Norman

Statistics and reports are flying at us from every direction about the real estate market nowadays.  Some reports say we have hit bottom, some even say the housing market has started a recovery others say worse times are ahead.  Since I don’t think anyone  can really tell us what the future has in store for the housing market I thought now may be a good time to look at history…at least short term history,  to see where things stand at this point.  Along the way we may see a trend or perhaps even feel like we can hazard a guess as to where things are headed in the short term, at least in the St. Louis housing market.

Since many analysts, including those at the National Association of REALTORS(R) use 2001 as a “base” year frequently for the housing market, I guess because it was a market that proceed the “boom” (or bubble, your pick) and was sort of a “normal” year in terms of market conditions.  I figured if it’s good enough for real analysts it’s good enough for me so I have used date for the St Louis real estate and housing market from 2001 in my comparison with where we stand now. Continue reading “The St. Louis Real Estate Market Bubble and Burst; St. Louis County hurt the worst in the area

St. Louis Real Estate Market Facts and Figures for July 2009

Dennis Norman

Dennis Norman

By: Dennis Norman

The National Association of REALTORS(R) and the St. Louis Association of REALTORS(R) have just released information on the St. Louis real estate market for July.  Following are some highlights from the data which is for St Louis city and county.

Sales for July (existing homes-does not include new):

St Louis home prices declined more in past year than national average

Dennis Norman
Dennis Norman

According to a report issued by First American CoreLogic national home price declines continue to improve citing that national housing prices fell 7.8 percent in June 2009 compared to June 2008 representing the small est year-over-year decline recorded to date in 2009.  This was a 0.7 percent improvement over Mays decline of 8.5% from the prior year.

firstamerican corelogic
St. Louis did not fare quite as well in the CoreLogic report.  The report shows St Louis home prices decreased 11.34% in June, 2009 compared to June 2008 and, opposite the national trend, represented a 1.43% larger decline than Mays decline of 9.91 percent from the prior year. Continue reading “St Louis home prices declined more in past year than national average

St Louis Housing Market has 6.8 percent increase in homes sales in July

Dennis Norman

Dennis Norman

By: Dennis Norman

The St. Louis housing market is showing some signs of strength with St Louis home sales increasing in July to a seasonally adjusted rate of 21,038 homes, an increase of 6.8 percent from June’s seasonally adjusted rate of 19,691 homes.  This increase for the month is very close to the  increase in home sales in the U.S. according to the report released today from the National Association of REALTORS(R), existing home sales in July rose 7.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted rate of 5.24 million units up from a level of 4.89 million units in June.

However St Louis home sales for July 2009 were the same as July 2008 showing no gain or loss in sales compared with an increase of 5 percent for the year on US home sales according to the National Association of REALTORS report.  To read about all the home sales and housing market data from the National Association of REALTORS(R) please click the following link:    Home Sales – Existing Home Sales July 2009 Continue reading “St Louis Housing Market has 6.8 percent increase in homes sales in July

House Prices in St Louis Increase in June; St Louis ranks 5th in 2-year house price change

Dennis Norman

Dennis Norman

According to the Housing Market Report that was issued this morning by Radarlogic, home prices increased in June from the previous month in 23 out of the 25 metropolitan areas tracked by their company.  St. Louis was among the 23 metros that showed an increase in home prices in June over May.

Overall the composite for all 25 metros showed a 3 percent gain in price from May to June representing one of the largest monthly gains reported by RadarLogic since June 2000.   St. Louis home prices increased 2.2 percent over May.

There has been a trend of price increases reported for the 25 metro areas for the past few months. In fact, the increase in the Radar Logic Composite from February to June outpaced the house price gains over the same period during the previous threes years, and the increase in house prices from April to June was the largest since the beginning of Radar Logic’s date in 2000. radar logic

Continue reading “House Prices in St Louis Increase in June; St Louis ranks 5th in 2-year house price change

Report shows St. Louis metro prices to decrease by 2% in next 12 months

Dennis Norman

Dennis Norman

By: Dennis Norman

A report published by Local Market Monitor, Inc. predicts the St. Louis metro area will see real estate values decline 2% in the coming 12 months.  This projection does not sound bad and would support the possibility that the market is leveling off and perhaps we have seen the bottom.

Local Market Monitor June Graph

Local Market Monitor Graph - St. Louis Metro Area, Home Values Forecast vs. Actual

The report also states that in the St. Louis metro market jobs have fallen by 2.5% in the past year, compared with a drop of 4% nationwide.  According to Local Market Monitors “Equilibrium” report, home prices in this area are “balanced”, meaning not over priced, nor under priced.  They also note that home prices in our market are 27% lower than the national average.