Mortgage delinquency rates, the precursor to foreclosures, continue to fall as the real estate market continues to perform well. The 30-plus day mortgage delinquency rate for June 2018 fell to 4.3% of all outstanding mortgages down from 4.6% a year ago, according to a report just released by CoreLogic. Frank Nothaft, the Chief Economist for CoreLogic, attributed the good news to “A solid labor market” going on to say that June’s national unemployment rate of 4% was “the lowest for June in 18 years“.
St Louis distressed home sales falling quickly…
With the economy and real estate market doing so well, distressed home sales (short-sales and foreclosures) continue to decline. As our chart below shows, the 12-month trend line for distressed home sales in the 5-County core St Louis market (city of St Louis and the counties of St Louis, St Charles, Jefferson, and Franklin) fell to 1,137 sales for the 12-month period ending August 2018. This is a decline of 30% in distressed home sales in St Louis, from a year ago when there were 1,632 distressed home sales during the prior 12-month period.
One question that causes much debate among the real estate community and confusion among home buyers is “should you buy a home directly from the listing agent?”. Many home buyers feel like they will get a better deal buying directly from the listing agent, thinking that it will save the seller some money in the form of commission and that the savings will benefit them, the buyer. This premise is flawed though as it is extremely rare that this would result in any commission savings (for more info see an article I did on the topic a couple of years ago here) but instead just results in the listing agent making more commission on the sale. Then, there is the question of representation which, since the listing agent represents the seller, buyers that buy through them are either not represented or, in the case of an agent that does dual agency (which I personally think is a really bad idea) is represented by the same person that represents the seller at the same time. I’m not going to get into the dual agency issues, or representation issues today though, and instead and just going to address the financial side of the topic.
Being an “Acts 17:11” guy (go to the source) and a data nerd, I’m going to turn to our market data to address the question. As you will see, how the buyers and sellers come out when the buyer buys directly from the listing agent varies depending on what factors we take into consideration. So, first, let’s look at listings that hit the market and sell right away. These seem to be the ones that buyers often think they will have a better chance of not losing out on the house if they go to the listing agent, or buy a “coming soon” listing through the listing agent directly before it actually hits the open market. For all my analysis today, I’m going to focus on St Charles County since it is such a large and active market.
This morning I noticed the St Louis Business Journal was reporting “In July, the local housing inventory fell to 2.6 months…That marked a 26 percent decrease since the same month last year“. This report immediately caused me some concern as I didn’t think the inventory was down nearly that much. Given that I personally spend a ton of time staying on top of local market data and our firm, MORE, REALTORS has even developed its own proprietary software to ensure that our agents and clients have the best and most accurate local housing market data, I would like to think I would know if the inventory had dropped that drastically.
Why data, and the source of it, is so important…
After looking at the reports we have been producing and then digging into the data to double check everything, I found that no, I had not missed anything, and the St Louis housing inventory had not dropped anywhere near 26% from a year ago. Before I go further, I should mention, I am not bashing the St Louis Business Journal, I like that paper, in fact that is the only St Louis newspaper I have paid any attention to for years and all they are doing is “reporting” the news and information anyway, they are not creating the data. Also, I’m not criticizing their source of data either, as I’m sure whoever provided the data felt it was painting a true picture as well.
However, the point I do want to make is to say that this is a perfect example of why, if you are a potential home buyer, seller or investor, you really do need to pay attention to the source of your information and market data. After all, it is data such as this that will help guide you in the decisions you make. For example, if you are looking for a home to buy in St Charles County and read the article I mentioned and saw there was a 26 percent decline in inventory, you may feel like you better hurry to find a house. In fact, you may decide you have to lower your expectations of what you want in a home, as well as perhaps pay more than you are comfortable with price-wise, to ensure you don’t miss out. However, what if you knew instead, as my data below illustrates, that the inventory of homes for sale in St Charles County is in fact just about the same now as it was this time last year? Would this change your approach? I think it may.
Remember, all real estate is local…
One of the challenges with housing market data is real estate really is a very “local” thing. Prices, inventory, etc, can change dramatically, even for similar homes, from city to city, school district to school district and, in some cases, even block to block. This is why at, MORE, REALTORS, we developed the software we did, and why we spend so much time training and coaching our agents on how to use these tools for the benefit of their clients. We can produce, accurate and relevant data at any level, for almost any type of housing.
So, what is the story on the St Louis housing inventory?
Below, I have presented several tables and charts to illustrate what I’m talking about, but here is a quick recap of the change in inventory from a year ago:
St Louis MSA. As the first two tables show, the inventory in early August of this year was equal to a 2.67 months supply of homes for sale in the St Louis metro area as a whole (9 counties in Missouri and 8 in Illinois) which is a decline of just 4 one hundreds of a percent (0.04) from the same time last year when there was a 2.71 month supply.
St Louis 5-County Core Market. This represents the bulk of the St Louis real estate market in Missouri and is composed of the city of St Louis and counties of St Louis, St Charles, Jefferson and Franklin. As the tables show, earlier this month there was a 2.43 month supply and the same time a year ago it was just about the same at 2.41 months.
St Louis City and County – It’s unusual for the city not to be part of the surrounding county, so we also report St Louis City and county together. For this market, it was 2.28 months when reported earlier this month and is just about the same again as a year ago when it was 2.30 months.
St Charles County – This County had the biggest decline inventory from a year ago dropping from a 2.08 month supply to a 1.96 month supply, a total decline of 5.7%.
Franklin & Lincoln Counties saw slight declines and Jefferson County has actually had an increase of 20% in inventory, climbing to 3.64 months from 3.03 months a year ago.
There you have it. No matter how you look at it, there is nothing that shows a major decline in the inventory of homes for sale from a year ago but instead, for the most part, things look pretty consistent.
Early August 2017 – Months Supply Of Homes For Sale – St Louis Area Counties
Early August 2018 – Months Supply Of Homes For Sale – St Louis Area Counties
This morning I watched a video from a firm that reports on the real industry and does so from a blunt, “call it as they see it”, perspective (pretty much my style too) in which they say “market correction indicators continue to roll in” and suggest that, to some extent, the party is over. This report looked at the national real estate market as a whole and specifically looked at the west coast so is not necessarily indicative of what is happening in the St Louis real estate market, however, can often be an early indicator.
As a result, I spent my early morning looking closely at the St Louis real estate market in search of market correction indicators. So, did I find indications that the St Louis real estate market is headed for a correction?
Yep. It’s called “spring is over“. :)
At about this time every year, we see a correction, of sorts due to the seasonality of the real estate business. It’s no secret that spring and early summer are always the best time for the real estate market with increased home sales and prices. As that season passes there is always a “correction” in home prices as they adjust downward for the decreased demand.
However, what I am really looking at is the “bigger picture”, is there an overall market correction taking place in St Louis or headed our way?
While it would be unrealistic to think that if a true market correction is going to be experienced by the bulk of the country that it won’t have an impact on the St Louis market, however, at this time there doesn’t appear to be any sort of serious correction imminent in the St Louis market.That’s not to say we won’t see the normal downturn in home sales and prices we expect to see due to seasonality.
Below are some charts and tables that I think are good indicators of the health of the St Louis market as well as good indicators of things to come. I’ll briefly give some comments on each as well as how I have applied the data shown to my opinion I have shared today.
The millennial generation, people born from 1981 through 1994, is predicted to outnumber the baby boomer generation sometime in 2019. Given the size of the generation, as well as the fact many are getting married and starting families, the real estate industry is very interested in these young people. Much time is spent trying to figure out whether they want to buy or rent, whether they will consider the suburbs or just stick to urban areas, etc.
Therefore, it does not come as a surprise that more than a third of the residents in the city of St Louis are millennials, attracted, no doubt, by the city lifestyle, a sharp contrast from the suburban upbringing many of them had with their baby boomer parents. However, the tides may be turning though.
As the table below shows, during 2017 the millennial population in the city of St Louis dropped by 1.4% while St Charles County grew by 1.0% and St Louis and Jefferson County by 0.3% each. As of 2017, the city of St Louis had 105,900 millennials living there, while St Charles County had 103,500, but if the trend continues, the millennial population in St Charles County will surpass the city of St Louis soon. Who knows? Maybe the millennials are more like us baby boomers than we thought and will end up buying homes in suburbia?
It took an average of just 9 days for homes to sell in Columbia, Illinois last month, making Columbia the fastest selling city in the St Louis MSA during June. Waterloo was the other Illinois city that made the list (#4) with the remaining 8 cities being in Missouri. Of the eight cities in Missouri on the list, 7 are in St Louis County and 1 in St Charles County.
Home sales in St Louis declined a little over 2 percent during the most recent 12-month period from the prior period while the median price of homes sold in St Louis rose 4.4%, according to the latest data from MORE, REALTORS.
St Louis home sales are trending downward slightly as well, as illustrated by the chart below. The light green line depicts year to date home sales for the St Louis 5-county core market (city of St Louis and counties of St Louis, St Charles, Jefferson and Franklin) and reveals that through June of this year, there have been 13,237 homes sold and, at the same time last year, 13,466, a decline of 1.7% in year to date sales.
Nearly 80 percent (78.8%) of the homeowners with a mortgage in St Charles County spend less than 30% of their household income for gross monthly housing costs, according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s latest data. As the table below shows, the 4-largest St Louis area counties are all within the green (good) level for housing affordability in all categories: Homeowners with a mortgage, homeowners without a mortgage and renters.
Of the three categories, St Louis renters have the worst housing affordability threshold with a median of 46.3% of St Louis renters spending more then 30% of their household income on housing costs. Conversely, a median of just 25.6% of St Louis homeowners with a mortgage, spend more than30% of their household income on housing costs.
Of the four counties reported on in the table below, residents of the city of St Louis fare the worst in all 3 categories in terms of their housing affordability threshold.
Homes have sold in the St Louis area at an increasing rate for a little more than 3 years now, however, as the chart below illustrates, the trend is flattening. The chart below, which was created from software our firm developed which compiles data from the MLS, plots homes sales for the past 12 months for each month. So, rather than just seeing the activity for one month and all the seasonal fluctuation, you can actually see the sales trend.
Since March 2015, the 12-month home sales trend has steadily increased at a fairly steady pace however, it appears we may have hit the ceiling. For the 12-month period ended May 31, 2018, there were 27,755 homes sold in the St Louis 5-County Core market (city of St Louis and counties of St Louis, St Charles, Jefferson and Franklin) a very slight increase over the 12-month period ended April 2018 when there were 27,653 homes sold and just a 1.5% increase from a year ago when there 27,339 homes sold in the prior 12-month period.
The St Louis 5-county core had a total population of 2,027,996 in 2017, up from 2,000,405 in 2010. The population increase os 27,591 represents a very modest population increase of just 1.36% for the 7-year period, according to the latest date from the U.S. Census Bureau. As the table below shows, the number of Asian people in St Louis grew by 11,913 during the period, an amount equal to 43% of the total St Louis population growth.
The St Louis 5-county core consists of the city of St Louis and the counties of St Louis, St Charles, Jefferson and Franklin. As shown below, three of the five counties experienced a growth in population from 2010 to 2017 with St Charles having the greatest growth at over 8.5%. The city of St Louis experienced the largest population decline with a loss of about 3.5% of its population during the 7-year period.
Another interesting tidbit in the data below is the growth in the male population in the St Louis 5-county core. During this period, the male population increased by 1.6% while the female population increased just 1.14%. While it may seem that significant, that is a 40% higher growth rate for males.
One of the things that often attract homebuyers to a new or expanding area is the availability of new homes at affordable prices. This is something that is hard to find in older areas that have mature real estate markets due to the lack of available ground and the cost of the ground when it does become available. This is, no doubt, one of the things that have been responsible for the population growth in Wentzville in spite of the fact it is in the farthest west most area of St Charles County. As a result, the city of Wentzville has seen its population grow from 5,733 in 1998 to 39,414 currently, a growth of 587% over the 20 year period.
One topic that often comes up in conversation about new and emerging markets, is whether homebuyers will benefit in those areas, as they mature and grow, from a higher appreciation rate than a typical established market. In order to examine this, I’m going to compare the Wentzville housing market with that of Ballwin, a municipality in St Louis County similar in size to Wentzville, with a current population of 30,161 which is just 15% greater than the 1998 population of 26, 205.
The five counties I refer to as the “St Louis Core Market“, which include the city of St Louis and counties of St Louis, St Charles, Jefferson and Franklin, account for over 90% of the home sales in the 9 Missouri Counties that are part of the St Louis MSA. This is why I typically focus on those five counties when reporting real estate market stats as they give the “big picture” view of the St Louis market but in a more accurate way than the St Louis MSA stats.
The counties making up the St Louis core market vary significantly in everything from socioeconomics and demographics to housing style, quality of public schools and home prices. As a result, the counties respond somewhat differently to market conditions, whether good or bad. To show how they compare, I produced a chart depicting home sales and price trends for the past 3 years. Which county fared the best over the past few years depends on which market statistic we rank them on.
Franklin County is the clear winner for home sales trend….
As the first chart below illustrates, the home sales trend for Franklin County has been the best, with a 39% increase over the past 3 years. For the 12-month period ended June 2015 there were 889 homes sold in Franklin County and for the 12-month period ended May 2018, there were 1237 homes sold.
St Louis City and St Charles County are at the top for home price appreciation…
The bottom chart reflects the median price per foot for the homes sold in each county and shows that, over the 3-year period, the city of St Louis had the highest increase in home prices at 13.9% followed by St Charles County with a 12.7% increase. Interestingly enough, Franklin County, with the largest increase in home sales, had the second-lowest increase in home prices during the period.
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As the table below shows, for the most recent 12-months that new home building permit data is available for from the Home Builders Association of St Louis & Eastern Missouri, there have been 4,610 new home building permits issued in the 7 counties they report on. This is just slightly less than was issued for the prior 12-month period ending April 2017, when there were 4,625 permits issued.
St Charles County New Home Building Permit Trend Continues to Fall…
There were 1,555 new home permits issued in St Charles County in the most recent 12-month period, a decline of 18.54% from the prior 12-month period. Year to date through April, there have been 447 new home building permits issued in St Charles County, a decline of 27%from the same time last year and a 35.2% decline from the same time in 2016.
St Charles County housing market doesn’t appear to be the problem
The overall real estate market in St Charles County is doing pretty well with 6,013 homes sold during the 12-month period ended April 30, 2018. That is a 2.5% decline from the prior 12 month period but still shows the demand is there meaning that decline in new home building permits is most likely not market driven but perhaps more related to lack of available ground.
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Typically, Franklin County and Jefferson County home sales stats tend to lag behind their “closer in” neighbors of St Louis and St Charles County, however, when it comes to fastest-selling zip codes, the two outlying counties claim the number 1 and number 2 spots, respectively. As the table below shows, homes in the 63072 zip code area (Robertsville) of Franklin County are selling the fastest, based upon average days on market of existing listings which stands at 24 days as of this morning. With an average time on the market of 33 days, the High-Ridge area zip of 63049 in Jefferson County comes in at #2.
Of the top-ten fastest selling zip-codes, 5 are in St Louis County, 2 in Jefferson County, and then 1 each in Franklin and St Charles County as well as the city of St Louis.
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The St Louis metro area has seen some population growth over the last few decades but not nearly as much as many other areas. From 1975 until last year, the population of the St Louis MSA increased 12.3% from 2,500,100 in 1975 to 2,807,338 in 2017. Of the major counties in Missouri that make up the St Louis MSA, St Charles County gained the most population increasing 248% during the same period. As the table below shows, 4 of the 5 major counties covered saw an increase in population from 1975 to 2017, although St Louis County’s increase was a rather lackluster 3.3%. Even St Louis County’s modest increase looks good when compared with the city of St Louis that lost 40% of its population during the period.
City of St Louis’ loss is St Charles County gain…
As the table below illustrates, St Charles County gained 281,700 people from 1975 through 2017 while the city of St Louis lost 205,474. Granted, not everyone that left the city of St Louis moved to St Charles County, but there is a lot of “shuffling of the population” that occurs here with movement from one area to another within St Louis as the population shifts. As a result, we end up with things such as the triple-digit increase in population in St Charles County and the city of St Louis losing nearly half of its population, while the overall metro area just had a modest gain.
How we compare to others…
To see how St Louis fared with other similar-sized areas, I checked the population history for the Davidson County Tennessee (Nashville) and Mecklenburg County North Carolina (Charlotte). Below is what I found:
Davidson County TN – 49.5% population growth from 1975 to 2017 increasing from 462,600 to 691,243.
Mecklenburg County NC – 185% population growth during the same period increasing from 377,400 to 1,076,837
So, while smaller, St Charles, Jefferson, and Franklin County’s population growth outpaced Davidson County and just St Charles County managed to outperform Mecklenburg County.
In the coming days, I’ll take a look at how population change has affected home prices and sales.
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St Louis Population – 1975 – 2017
(click on the table below for live charts showing complete data for each area)
New home construction, based upon building permits issued, is up overall for the 7-county area covered in St Louis by the Home Builders Association of St Louis and Eastern Missouri (HBA). For the most recent 12-month period reported for this area, through the end of February 2018, there have been 4,720 single family permits issue versus 4,579 for the prior 12-month period, an increase of 3.08%.
As the table below shows, 5 of the 7 counties reported on by the HBA have seen double-digit increases in new home construction during the past 12-months, Lincoln County and St Charles County being the exceptions. St Charles County has suffered the most, with a double-digit decrease in home sales. The St Charles decline is likely at least partially contributed to a lack of developed lots.
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Home prices in the St Louis 5-County core market increased 3.67 percent in the 12-month period ending February 28, 2018 to a median price of $186,500 from $179,900 for the prior 12-month period. During the same period, home sales in the St Louis 5-County core market increased 1.89% to 27,839 homes sold from 27,323 homes sold during the prior 12-month period.
As our table below shows, there were 1,489 homes sold during February 2018, and are currenlty 4,921 homes listed for sale, computing into a 3.3 month supply of homes for sale, continuing to favor sellers due to the low supply. A supply of around 6 months would normally result in a balanced market not favoring sellers or buyers, the likes of which we have not seen in some time.
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St Louis 5-County Core Market* Home Sales And Prices
(click the table below to be taken to current, complete report)
* St Louis City and counties of St Louis, St Charles, Jefferson and Franklin
New home construction in the St Louis area is off to a good start for 2018 with a total of 326 building permits for new homes being issued during January for the 7-county St Louis area reported on by the Home Builders Association of Eastern Missouri. This permit activity in January represents an 11% increase over the activity in January 2017 when there were 293 new home permits issued. During the month of January 2018, 4 of 7 counties saw an increase in building permits from January 2017 (Jefferson County +26%, Franklin County +143%, Warren County +1%, St Louis City +371%) while the remaining 3 saw declines (St Louis County -25%, St Charles County -10%, Lincoln County -29%).
It takes more than a month for a trend…
Just like I often comment with regard to home prices and sales, looking at a single month of activity really does not paint the whole picture and, while it may be a good “leading-indicator” of where things are headed, it’s not going to accurately depict a trend. For this, I believe looking at the past 12-month period and comparing it to the prior 12-month period is more accurate. It takes into account the seasonal fluctuations that occur and adjust for unseasonal weather during a given month that could skew the data if just looking at a one-month period. The table belows the total building permits for the 12-month period ending January 31, 2018 and comparies that activity to the prior 12-month period for each of the 7-counties reported on. As you can see, five of the counties have a double-digit increase in new home building permits issued from the prior 12-month period while St Charles County shows a double-digit decline, and Lincoln County a slight decline.
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New Home Building Permits- St Louis Area – January 2018
Located at 13570 St Charles Rock Road in Bridgeton Missouri is a 200-acre landfill known as the West Laek Landfill Superfund site which has been the center of controversy and a source of frequent headlines over the past few years. The reason it has garnered so much attention is becuase of health concerns related to radioactive waste at the site. The source of the radioactive waste goes back to 1973 when soil that was mixed iwth leached barium sulfate was used to cover the landfill. The radioactive waste came from a nearby storage and processing facility located at 9200 Latty Avenue in Hazelwod.
Over the past several years, residents in the area surrounding the West Lake site have expressed concerns and made claims that the have been afflicted by illnesses that they think are a result of the nuclear waste at the site. There have been numerous public hearings and, earlier this month, the EPA announced their proposed plan to remove some of the radioactive materials from the site.
In addition to the claims of health issues, residents have raised concerns about the impact on their property values as a result of the issues and possible risks of living near the West Lake site. Therefore, I decided to take a look at home values of the homes in the area to see how the market in the immediate proximity has fared.
As the chart below illustrates, the median price per foot of homes within a 2-mile radius of the site that have sold during the past 5 years was relatively flat from 2014 through 2016, then incraased 5.8% from 2016 to 2017. Thus far in 2018 there have been two home sales close at a median price per foot of $120 per foot, an increase of about 12% from 2017.
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Home Sales Within 2 Mile Radius of West Lake Landfill – Jan 2013 Through Feb 2018
Click on Chart For Complete Data
To put things in perspective as well as compare the home price performance in the West Lake area to the overall Bridgeton area, I created the combined chart below. As you can see, there doesn’t appear to be a difference in home appreciation in the West Lake area compared with the overall Bridgeton area. In fact, thus far in 2018, the West Lake area is off to a better start than the overall Bridgeton market.
Bridgeton vs West Lake Area Home Sales – Past 5 Years
Home sales and home prices in St Charles County during the 12-month period ending November 30, 2017, are trending in opposite directions. Home sales in St Charles County have, as the chart below reveals, declined 5.7% from 6,155 home sales for the 12 month period ended November 30, 2016 to 5,806 home sales for the period ended November 30, 2017. The median price per foot for homes sold during these same periods however have increased 2.4% from $127 per foot for the period ended November 2016 to $130 per foot for the period ended November 30, 2017.
St Charles County Home Sales & Price Per Foot – (chart)
12-Month Period Ending 11/30/2016 vs
12-Month Period Ending 11/22/2016 No Distressed Sales
(click on chart for live data)
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Ok, everyone knows Black Friday is a huge shopping day, historically the largest shopping day of the year, but is it a big day to shop for a home as well? Well, based on our data from last year, maybe not so much. As our tables show below, while there were 35 homes and condos sold in the core St Louis market (the city of St Louis and counties of St Louis, St Charles, Jefferson and Franklin) that was just over half as many as were sold the Friday before, and the Friday after, Black Friday. So, it appears on Black Friday the focus is more on the malls and shopping centers than your next home.
Just in case you are in the market for a home today, below are some links to make it easy to do your home search. Or, if you are going to hit the malls today but be out this weekend house hunting, there are links to listings that will be open this weekend.
Happy Shopping, in whatever form that may be today!
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Homes & Condos Sold On Thanksgiving or Black Friday 2016 – 5-County Core St Louis Market (Table)
Homes & Condos Sold On Friday Before Black Friday 2016 – 5-County Core St Louis Market (Table)
Homes & Condos Sold On Friday After Black Friday 2016 – 5-County Core St Louis Market (Table)
Over the past couple of years, as the St Louis real estate market has continued performing well, mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures have continued to decline. Rising home value has also caused the number of “underwater” homeowners, also known as homeowners in a negative-equity position (meaning their mortgage balance exceeds their homes current value) to decline as well. As the table below shows, 5 of the seven St Louis area counties listed saw a decline in the number of underwater properties in the 3rd quarter of this year from a year ago. The largest decline in underwater properties was St Charles with a 35% decline. The two exceptions, the city of St Louis and St Clair County, Il, saw an increase in underwater property of 2% and 14% respectively.
St Louis Underwater (Negative-Equity) Properties – 3rd Quarter 2017
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New home construction in the St Louis and surrounding areas for the first three quarters of this year is up slightly from the same time last year, according to the latest permit data from the Home Builders Association of Greater St Louis. However, as the table below shows, only 4 of the 7 counties reviewed had an increase in building permits while the other three, including the county with the greatest number of building permits, St Charles County, saw a decline.
St Louis Area New Home Building Permits – Year to Date Through September 30, 2017
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Over the past 20 years, there have been 2.75 times more homes sold in St Louis County (250,486) than St Charles County (90,933). Given that the population in St Louis County at the beginning of this period was 4 times that of St Charles County and, even today is nearly 2.6 times more, St Charles County has definitely held it’s own in the housing market.
St Louis County dominates the $1mil+ home market…
St Charles County may be keeping up with St Louis county in the overall housing market, however, when we look at the luxury home market, homes selling for $1 million or more, St Louis County dominates that market. As the tables below show, in the past 20 years, there have been nearly 42 times as many $1mil+ homes sold in St Louis County as there were in St Charles County. Over the past 20 years, there were 2,847 $1mil+ homes sold in St Louis County and just 68 in St Charles County during the period.
St Charles County – $1mil+ Homes – 1998-Oct 2017
St Louis County – $1mil+ Homes – 1998-Oct 2017
There shortage of inventory in the $1mil+ market…
As the tables above also reveal, there is no shortage of inventory in the luxury home market in St Louis County or St Charles County with a current supply of homes for sale of 16 months and 19 months respectively.
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St Charles County had the biggest improvement in the housing affordability index during the 3rd quarter of this year of any major County in the state of Missouri, according to a newly released report from Attom Data Solutions. St Charles County, with an affordability index of 109 (above 100 is more affordable than historic average, below 100 is less affordable), saw a 6.5% improvement in housing affordability from the prior quarter but a 2.4% decline from a year ago when the housing affordability index for St Charles County was 112.
The table below shows the housing affordability index for all of the major Counties in Missouri. As it illustrates, the percentage of a person’s annual income needed to make the payments on a home vary from a low of 17.6% in the city of St Louis to a high of 36.4% in St Charles County. The table also shows that home price growth is outpacing income growth in half the Counties listed.
Home Affordability In Missouri By County – 3rd Quarter 2017
Data Source: Attom Data Solutions – Copyright 2017 – St Louis Real Estate News – All Rights Reserved
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For the 12-month period ending August 31, 2017, as the table below shows, there were 36,753 homes sold in the St Louis MSA an increase in home sales of 3.68% from the prior 12-month period. The median price of homes sold in the St Louis MSA during the past 12 months was $170,000, an increase in home prices of 2.92% from the prior 12 month period.
St Louis home sales and price summary by county (see tables below for details):
St Louis City and County
Home Sales Up 5.18%
Home Prices Up 3.31%
St Charles County
Home Sales Up 3.07%
Home Prices Up 6.77%
Jefferson County
Home Sales Up 3.56%
Home Prices Up 6.20%
Franklin County
Home Sales Up 9.21%
Home Prices Up 7.07%
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As we approach the fall season (officially referred to as “autumn”, it begins September 22nd) and the temperatures cool, St Louishome prices and sales are beginning to cool as well. There’s no reason for panic as this is normal due to the “seasonality” of the real estate market, however, we in the real estate business never like to see it arrive.
As the tables below for the St Louis MSA, as well as the counties that make up the St Louis real estate market, show, the St Louis real estate market as a whole, is now a “cooling seller’s market” with the exceptions being St Louis County, which we have as a “hot seller’s market,”, and the St Louis City/County market we are calling a “sellers market”.
What this means for seller’s is, if your home is listed, not sold and you have considered a price reduction (or your agent has been pushing for one), my suggestion would be “the sooner the better“. Prices are declining and will continue to slip as we go into the winter months and then recover and increase next spring. So, unless you are willing to wait until spring to sell, the longer you wait to lower your price to a level that will cause buyers to react, the lower you will have to go most likely. For home buyers, this means if you haven’t bought yet, now is a good time to buy as prices are easing and will continue to ease in the coming months.
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For the 12-month period ending July 31, 2017, as the table below shows, there were 36,741 homes sold in the St Louis MSA an increase in home sales of 13.35% from the prior 12-month period. The median price of homes sold in the St Louis MSA during the past 12 months was $170,000, an increase in home prices of 3.66% from the prior 12 month period.
St LouisHome sales and price summary by county (see tables below for details):
St Louis City and County
Home sales Up 6.06%
Home prices Up 4.79%
St Charles County
Home sales Up 4.43%
Home prices Up 6.88%
Jefferson County
Home sales Up 3.77%
Home prices Up 6.54%
Franklin County
Home sales Up 11.42%
Home prices Up 5.89%
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For the 12-month period ending June 20, 2017, as the table below shows, there were 36,447 homes sold in the St Louis MSA an increase in home sales of 2.08% from the prior 12-month period. The median price of homes sold in the St Louis MSA during the past 12 months was $169,000, an increase in home prices of 4.0% from the prior 12 month period.
St LouisHome sales and price summary by county (see tables below for details):
St Louis City and County
Home sales Up 3.67%
Home prices Up 3.75%
St Charles County
Home sales Up 3.90%
Home prices Up 7.50%
Jefferson County
Home sales Up 2.3%
Home prices Up 7.26%
Franklin County
Home sales
Home prices
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Yesterday, I did an article about the population shift in St Louis in which I included data showing the the city of St Louis has lost population every year for the past six years (the period covered in my article) while St Charles County and Jefferson County experienced population growth every year during the period. So, today, I decided to see what has happened with regard to home values in these counties and whether anything value-wise seems tied to the population shift.
Below is a 10-year chart, showing the median price per foot (one of the most accurate ways to look at home prices) for each of the 5-counties that make up the St Louis core-market. As the chart reveals, there doesn’t necessarily seem to be any correlation between home appreciation and population shift. Below is a quick analysis:
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