Buying a new home can be a great experience but it can also be a daunting one as well. For homeowners that have previously only purchased an existing home, they will quickly find the process is much different. From the number of decisions that must be made, change orders and other financial surprises along the way, it can be a little overwhelming for a buyer. Particularly one that went into the process ill prepared or without proper representation by a buyers agent that is experienced in new construction.
What you need to know BEFORE buying a new home…
For more complete information, you can find my complete new home buying report here but I have highlights of the report below:
The new home construction trend in St. Louis during January slowed just a bit with a total of 4,426 new home permits being issued for the 12-month period ended January 31, 2020, a slight decline of about 1% from a year ago when there were 4,447 permits issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri.
As the table below shows, 5 of the 7 counties covered in the report saw a decline in new home permits from a year ago. Two of the three counties with the most new home activity, St Charles County and Jefferson County, both saw double-digit increases in permit activity from the prior 12-month period.
There were 70,000 new homes sold in the Midwest Region of the United States during 2019, a decline of 7.2% from 2018 when there were 76,000 new homes sold, according to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau.
As the table below shows, there were 40,000 new homes for sale in the Mideast at the end of 2019, which translates into roughly a 7 month supply of new homes for sale.
I’ll concede the fact that not everyone is as much of a data geek as I am and, in fact, a more accurate statement would probably be that most people are not, including the majority of home buyers and sellers. Sure, home buyers and sellers are interested in home prices and what the potential value of the home is they are looking to buy or sell, but most leave the real data analysis to their agent. After all, part of being a professional real estate agent is knowing the market as well as knowing how to research the market and apply market data to their client’s situation.
However, don’t assume all real estate agents are created equal in this regard and that they all know the market as well as they should or do the research they should. There are many great agents that do these things very well but there are a bunch, probably an equal number, if not more, that don’t. Even the agents that do it well are still limited to the data resources they have available to them.
New home construction in St. Louis during October held at about the same trend as September with 4,289 new home permits issued for the 12-month period ended October 31, 2019, a decline of 8.04% from a year ago when there were 4,664 permits issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri. This is about the same as September when the 12-month trend was down 8.05% from the prior 12-month period.
As the table below shows, 4 of the 7 counties covered in the report saw a decline in new home permits from a year ago. This is the same as last month, with the same four counties on the decline. For the 9th month in a row, Franklin County suffered the biggest loss at 41.31%. At the other end of the spectrum, St Charles County had the largest increase at 7.55% and took removed Warren County from the number one slot after Warren County had 9 consecutive months of the highest growth in permits.
New home construction in St. Louis continued its decline, although at a lower rate, with 4,286 new home permits issued for the 12-month period ended September 30, 2019, a decline of 8.05% from a year ago when there were 4,661 permits issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri. This is an improvement from the 12-month period ended August 31, 2019, when the decline was nearly 10% from the year before (9.74%).
As the table below shows, 4 of the 7 counties covered in the report saw a decline in new home permits from a year ago. Franklin County again suffered the biggest loss at 43.82% making it the 8th month in a row Franklin County has seen a loss. At the other end of the spectrum, Warren County again had the largest increase at 22.22% and this marks the 9th month in a row of increases for the county. For only the second time in the past 12-months, St Charles County saw an increase in new home permits issued during the period with a 3.79% increase.
New home construction in St. Louis continues to decline with 4,244 new home permits issued in August 2019 for the St Louis area, a decline of 9.74% from a year ago when there were 4,702 permits issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri.
As the table below shows, 5 of the 7 counties covered in the report saw a decline in new home permits from a year ago. Franklin County has suffered the biggest loss at 44.13% and Warren County has seen the largest increase at 15.57%.
For the 12-month period ended May 31, 2019, there were building permits issued for 300 new homes in Jefferson County, a decline of nearly 26% from the prior 12-month period according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri. For the same period, there were permits issued for 758 new homes in St Louis County,a decline of 23.50% from the prior 12-month period.
Warren County saw a double-digit percentage increase in building permits again this period, and the City of St Louis again had an increase.
For the 12-month period ended April 30, 2019, there were building permits issued for 757 new homes in St Louis County,a decline of 22.80% from the prior 12-month period, according to the latest data from the St Louis HBA. As the table below shows, St Charles County saw a decline of 6.38% during the same period. In February of this year, only two counties showed a downward trend in building permits, but in March that grew to 4 counties and for April, 5 of the 7 counties we are reporting on, show a decline in new home building permits. Warren County continues to show growth and an upward trend in new home construction with an increase of 20.07% in building permits during the most recent 12-month period from the prior 12-month period.
For the 12-month period ended March 31, 2019, there were building permits issued for 748 new homes in St Louis County,a decline of 23.60% from the prior 12-month period, according to the latest data from the St Louis HBA. As the table below shows, St Charles County saw a decline of 11.23% during the same period. Last month, those were the only two counties showing a downward trend, but, this month, Franklin County and the City of St Louis have also seen new home construction trend downward. Warren County again showed the greatest upward trend in new home construction with an increase of 23.66% in building permits during the most recent 12-month period from the prior 12-month period.
For the 12-month period ended February 28, 2019, there were building permits issued for 785 new homes in St Louis County,a decline of 21.11% from the prior 12-month period, according to the latest data from the St Louis HBA. As the table below shows, St Charles County saw a decline of 13.05% during the same period however the other counties reported on by the St Louis HBA are all showing increased new home building activity for the period. From a percentage standpoint, Warren County saw the biggest increase at 30.04%.
Some new home buyers believe that if they buy a new home directly from the builder or the builder’s sales person, they will get a better price. But is this true? Doyou get a better deal buying a new home directly from the builder?
First, we should address a “better deal” and what constitutes a good “deal”. If it is strictly price, then, while I think it is somewhat short-sided on the part of the buyer and falls in that “penny-wise, dollar-foolish” category, in some instances, with some builders, the builder will save some cost by you buying from their agent. This is the result of the builder having an agent that will get paid less commission that the builder would pay a buyer’s agent then if the builder chooses to pass that savings along to the buyer, rather than keep it, the buyer should receive a better price. However, just like the possible savings motivated the buyer to deal directly with the builder, it is unrealistic to think that a builder is not going to feel the same and be motivated to have a better profit margin dealing directly with the buyer and instead would choose to forego the savings and give it to the buyer in the price. Plus, most builders appreciate and understand, the vital role a buyer’s agent plays in the transaction and wants to encourage agents to show and sell their homes, so they typically avoid doing things that look like they are trying to cut an agent out of a deal by dealing directly with the buyer.
There were 4,471 building permits issued for new homes in the St Louis area during the 12-month period ended January 31, 2019, a decline of 5.20% from the prior 12-month period when there were 4,716 permits issued, according to information just released by the Home Builders Association of St Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA).
As the table below shows, St Charles County continues to see the largest decline in new home construction with 1,489 new home permits issued in the most recent 12-month period, down 13.03% from the prior 12 month period. Four counties in the St Louis area have seen gains in permits, with Warren County being the big winner in terms of percentage increase with nearly a 30 percent increase in new home permits for the period!
There were 4,140 building permits issued for new homes in the St Louis area during 2018, a decline of 3.16% from the year before when there were 4,275 permits issued, according to information just released by the Home Builders Association of St Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA). The number of permits issued for new homes during 2018 was just slightly down from 2016.
As the table below shows, St Charles County has seen the largest decline in new home construction with 1,499 new home permits issued in 2018, down 12.85% from the year before and decline of 24.48% from 2016 when there were 1,985 permits issued. Franklin County, Warren County and the city of St Louis all had significant double-digit gains in building permits issued during 2018 from the year before.
Every year around this time is when many homeowners that have their homes listed for sale discuss with their agent whether they should just take their home or condo off the market as Christmas approaches, then come back on the market after the beginning of the new year. Many homeowners that are thinking of selling contemplate the same thing trying to decide whether to come on the market before the holidays or wait until after.
It is a well-known fact this is a slower time of the year for the St Louis real estate market, but does that mean it’s so bad that you should remove your listing from the market and take a break? Well, while a lot of people may decide to do this, often because they will have family and friends visiting or staying with them, one can make a decent argument for staying on the market around Christmas if it’s possible.
Homes and condos do sell during Christmas week…
To address the issue of whether it makes sense for a seller to stay on the market over Christmas, I pulled stats for Christmas week last year, to see how many homes and condos went under contract that week. As the MORE, REALTORS® exclusive STL Market Reports™ table shows, there were 291 listings that went under contract Christmas week 2017 in the St Louis 5-County Core real estate market.
I had lunch yesterday with a long-time friend who is a St Louis home-builder who shared with me the continually rising costs of construction he faces. Our conversation was consistent with conversations I’ve had with other builders as well, who cite a variety of things responsible for the ever-increasing costs of new home construction. The areas most often mentioned relate to regulatory and compliance issues, material prices as well as rising labor costs. According to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), the average cost to build a new home has inreased 56% over the past 15 years. According to the NAHB, over the past 15 years construction costs accounted for a median of 57% of the cost of a new home.
The gap between new home prices and existing home prices widens..
As the chart below illustrates, over the past 15 years, the median price of a new home has increased 68% while, as the bottom chart shows, the price of homes in the U.S. (according to the S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Index) has only increased 43.6% during the same period. During the past 15 years, new home prices have increased 56% more than home prices overall.
There were 4,642 new home building permits issued for the 7 counties in the St Louis area covered by the St Louis HBA during the 12-month period ended August 31, 2018, just 2 more (0.04%) than the 4,640 that were issued during the prior 12-month period, according to data from the St Louis HBA.
This would indicate that perhaps the new home building market has peaked for the time being which, given that this is the best report for this 12-month period since August 2007 when there were 5,706 permits issued in the prior 12 months, it’s not bad.
St Charles County’s Loss is Franklin County’s gain…
As the table below, which shows the building permit activity by county, illustrates, St Charles County has seen nearly a 14% decline in building permits in the past 12-months from the prior period, while Franklin County has seen nearly a 42% increase. Granted, 32.9% of all the building permits issued in the 7-county area were issued in St Charles County, but a year ago 38.3% of all the permits were issued in St Charles County.
St Louis home sales remain consistent but fairly flat with 27,636 homes sold during the past 12 months, just slightly more than the 27,525 homes sold in the prior 12 month period, for the 5-County core St Louis market. As the table below shows, while home sales only increased by 0.40% during the period for the core St Louis market (city of St Louis and counties of St Louis, St Charles, Jefferson, and Franklin) the median price of homes sold during the period increased 5.46% from a median price of $184,900 to $195,00. There is a currently a 2.55 month supply of homes for sale and the median time a home has been for sale in this area is 68 days.
St Louis 5- County Core Market – Home Sales and Prices
As the table below shows, the housing market in the city and county of St Louis is performing pretty much the same as for the larger 5-county area. There were 16,828 homes sold in the past 12-months in this area, which is just 16 home sales more than the prior 12-month period when there were 16,812 homes sold. The median price of homes sold in the most recent 12 month period was $185,000, a 5.71% increase from the prior 12-month period when the median home price was $175,000. There is a 2.46 month supply of homes for sale and the median time a home has been on the market for sale is 63 days.
The sale of new homes in the Midwest region of the U.S. is on the rise according to a report just released by the Census Bureau. In July, new homes in the Midwest sold at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 78,000 homes, an increase of 9.9% from June and an 18.2% increase from July 2017 when the rates were 66,000 homes. Year-to-date this year, though the end of July, there have been 50,000 actual new homes sold in the Midwest region, an increase of 14.2% from the same time last year when there had been 44,000 new homes sold year-to-date.
On a national level, new home sales are not performing as well as the Midwest region, but are still performing well. In July, new homes were sold at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 627,000 homes, a decrease of 1.7% from the month before and an increase of 12.8% from July 2017. Year-to-date, through the end of July, there have been 401,000 new homes sold nationwide, an increase of 7.2% from the same time last year when there were 374,000 new homes sold year-to-date.
New homes sold in the Midwest region of the U.S. in June were at a seasonally-adjusted, annual rate of 71,000 homes, according to a report just released by the U.S. Department of Commerce and United States Census Bureau. June’s new home sales activity in the Midwest represents a 13.4% decline from May when new homes in the Midwest sold at an annual rate of 82,000 homes but is a 7.6% increase from June 2017 when the annual rate was 66,000 homes. Last year the rate of new home sales in this region increased every month after June up until December when it crashed but closed out the year with 72,000 new homes sold.
In terms of the actual number of new homes sold this year in the Midwest region, there have been 44,000 new homes sold this year thus far, through the end of June. Last year, for the same time period, there were just 38,000 new homes sold in this region year to date so we are up 14.4% in non-seasonally adjusted, actual year to date new home sales in the Midwest through the end of June.
According to a recent report published by the Cato Institute, the state of Missouri ranks 9th in the nation for having the most restrictive zoning regulations. Many anti-development folks may applaud this fact and look at it as a victory. However, many people in the real estate industry, including yours truly, believe that overly restrictive zoning regulations greatly impact the cost of new home construction resulting in increased home prices and less affordable housing. Couple the increased costs along with the reduced density permitted by overly restrictive zoning and you have a real impediment to the development of affordable or “work-force” housing.
Zoning regulations first came about in the U.S. early in the 20th century first around 1908 when Los Angeles adopted municipal zoning and land-use laws. In 1916 the city of New York passed a comprehensive zoning code as well. Other municipalities followed suit and, according to the Cato report, 68 additional municipalities had adopted zoning by 1926. In 1926 the U.S. Supreme Court, in the case, Village of Euclid v. Ambler Realty Co., 272 U.S. 365 (1926) ruled that “If they are not arbitrary or unreasonable, zoning ordinances are constitutional under the police power of local governments as long as they have some relation to public health, safety, morals, or general welfare“. After the Supreme Court decision, zoning regulations exploded around the country and, just 10 years later, another 1,246 municipalities had adopted zoning.
Today, while much of the zoning, and the people that created it and enforce it, are well intentioned, in many cases it goes well beyond it’s original purpose of “health and human safety”. It is common for zoning and land use regulations to include minimum lot sizes that severly limit the development potential of the land thus driving up the cost of the housing. In addition, it’s common for zoning to include design requirements and features, driven by the personal preferences or ideology of elected and appointed officials with nothing to do with health or human safety, thus further driving up the cost of new housing.
It’s not just zoning and land use regulations however that are keeping new homes from being built at a faster rate in St Louis. There are other regulations that negatively impact new home construction and drive costs up such as the clean water act and similar environmental-related regulations which have caused the costs of lot development to more than double over the past few years.
One of the things that often attract homebuyers to a new or expanding area is the availability of new homes at affordable prices. This is something that is hard to find in older areas that have mature real estate markets due to the lack of available ground and the cost of the ground when it does become available. This is, no doubt, one of the things that have been responsible for the population growth in Wentzville in spite of the fact it is in the farthest west most area of St Charles County. As a result, the city of Wentzville has seen its population grow from 5,733 in 1998 to 39,414 currently, a growth of 587% over the 20 year period.
One topic that often comes up in conversation about new and emerging markets, is whether homebuyers will benefit in those areas, as they mature and grow, from a higher appreciation rate than a typical established market. In order to examine this, I’m going to compare the Wentzville housing market with that of Ballwin, a municipality in St Louis County similar in size to Wentzville, with a current population of 30,161 which is just 15% greater than the 1998 population of 26, 205.
As the table below shows, for the most recent 12-months that new home building permit data is available for from the Home Builders Association of St Louis & Eastern Missouri, there have been 4,610 new home building permits issued in the 7 counties they report on. This is just slightly less than was issued for the prior 12-month period ending April 2017, when there were 4,625 permits issued.
St Charles County New Home Building Permit Trend Continues to Fall…
There were 1,555 new home permits issued in St Charles County in the most recent 12-month period, a decline of 18.54% from the prior 12-month period. Year to date through April, there have been 447 new home building permits issued in St Charles County, a decline of 27%from the same time last year and a 35.2% decline from the same time in 2016.
St Charles County housing market doesn’t appear to be the problem
The overall real estate market in St Charles County is doing pretty well with 6,013 homes sold during the 12-month period ended April 30, 2018. That is a 2.5% decline from the prior 12 month period but still shows the demand is there meaning that decline in new home building permits is most likely not market driven but perhaps more related to lack of available ground.
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New home construction, based upon building permits issued, is up overall for the 7-county area covered in St Louis by the Home Builders Association of St Louis and Eastern Missouri (HBA). For the most recent 12-month period reported for this area, through the end of February 2018, there have been 4,720 single family permits issue versus 4,579 for the prior 12-month period, an increase of 3.08%.
As the table below shows, 5 of the 7 counties reported on by the HBA have seen double-digit increases in new home construction during the past 12-months, Lincoln County and St Charles County being the exceptions. St Charles County has suffered the most, with a double-digit decrease in home sales. The St Charles decline is likely at least partially contributed to a lack of developed lots.
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New home construction in the St Louis area is off to a good start for 2018 with a total of 326 building permits for new homes being issued during January for the 7-county St Louis area reported on by the Home Builders Association of Eastern Missouri. This permit activity in January represents an 11% increase over the activity in January 2017 when there were 293 new home permits issued. During the month of January 2018, 4 of 7 counties saw an increase in building permits from January 2017 (Jefferson County +26%, Franklin County +143%, Warren County +1%, St Louis City +371%) while the remaining 3 saw declines (St Louis County -25%, St Charles County -10%, Lincoln County -29%).
It takes more than a month for a trend…
Just like I often comment with regard to home prices and sales, looking at a single month of activity really does not paint the whole picture and, while it may be a good “leading-indicator” of where things are headed, it’s not going to accurately depict a trend. For this, I believe looking at the past 12-month period and comparing it to the prior 12-month period is more accurate. It takes into account the seasonal fluctuations that occur and adjust for unseasonal weather during a given month that could skew the data if just looking at a one-month period. The table belows the total building permits for the 12-month period ending January 31, 2018 and comparies that activity to the prior 12-month period for each of the 7-counties reported on. As you can see, five of the counties have a double-digit increase in new home building permits issued from the prior 12-month period while St Charles County shows a double-digit decline, and Lincoln County a slight decline.
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New Home Building Permits- St Louis Area – January 2018
New home construction in the St Louis and surrounding areas for the first three quarters of this year is up slightly from the same time last year, according to the latest permit data from the Home Builders Association of Greater St Louis. However, as the table below shows, only 4 of the 7 counties reviewed had an increase in building permits while the other three, including the county with the greatest number of building permits, St Charles County, saw a decline.
St Louis Area New Home Building Permits – Year to Date Through September 30, 2017
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The U.S. Department of Commerce just released it’s 2016 CHARACTERISTICS OF NEW HOUSING in which it revealed features, amenities, prices, sizes, etc of new homes built and sold during 2016 in the United States. You can see all the data in the complete report for the U.S. by clicking on the link however I’m going to just focus on the homes built here in the midwest region.
There were 69,000 new homessold (single-family) here in the Midwest Region of the United States, down from a peak of 205,000 in 2005. Eleven percent of the single-family homes sold were attached homes (8,000) and the remaining eighty-nine-percent (62,000) were detached homes, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau.
Facts and Figures For New Homes Sold In The Midwest during 2016:
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New home sales in St Louis declined in 2016 after increasing during the prior two years, for both the entire St Louis MSA as a whole as well as the St Louis 5-County Core Market. As the 10-year charts below show, new home sales, fell steadily from 2007 for about the next 4 years as a result of the housing bubble burst and failing real estate market. Since hitting rock bottom around 2011, new home sales have increased slightly but have not done so with any great momentum.
New home sales in St Louis 5 County Core Market are still just a fraction of what they were…
In 2007, there were 1,374 new home sales reported in the MLS in the St Louis core market, and last year there were 603 new homes sold, a decline of 56% from 2007. Last years new home sales were down over 11 percent from the year below and are lower than the prior 4 years. In fact, in the past 10 years, only 2011 saw fewer new homes sold with just 568 that year.
The median price of new homes sold, as the charts illustrate, dropped from $240,750 during 2007 until hitting bottom in 2010 at $211,144, and then after falling off the 2011 level in 2012, has increased every year since and hit $273,000 last year. This represents an increase of 29% in the median price of new homes sold in the St Louis core market since 2010.
New home sales increased last year in St Louis County but fell in St Charles and Jefferson Counties…
As the individual county charts below show, St Louis county saw the number of new homes sold increase last year from the year before, increasing 34% from 127 in 2015 to 184 new homes sold in 2016. The median price declined during this period however, from $520,000 during 2015 to $467,990 in 2016.
St Charles County saw new home sales decline nearly 23% (22.9) from 363 in 2015 to 280 during 2016 while prices increased from $221,705 to $228,424. Jefferson County followed suit with new home sales falling 22.5% from 129 during 2015 to 100 in 2016 while prices increased 14.6% during the same period from $205,000 in 2015 to $234,917 in 2016. (We work hard on this and sure would appreciate a “Like”)[iframe http://www.facebook.com/plugins/like.php?href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2FStLouisRealEstateNews&send=false&layout=standard&width=50&show_faces=false&font&colorscheme=light&action=like&height=35&appId=537283152977556 100 35 ]
Happy home builders? Wow, I remember those days, back before the real estate bubble and market collapse, boy were those the days! Well, the good news is, while builders still have their challenges, according to the latest Housing Market Index (HMI) from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), builders in the Midwest are more optimistic about the new home market than they have ever been! (or, at least since the beginning of the regional level index records that are published).
The NAHB Housing Market Index is based upon results of a survey done of the builders and other members of the National Association of Home Builders in which members are asked to rate market conditions in 3 ways:
The sale of new homes at the present time
How they feel about selling new homes over the coming six months
The traffic of prospective buyers through their new home displays and developments.
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As a real estate broker and former real estate developer and builder, I’m surprised how many transactions I see in which a new home buyer forgoes a private building inspection thinking, since the home is new, an inspection is not necessary. In my personal opinion, this couldn’t be farther from the truth. Don’t get me wrong, this is not a condemnation of St Louis home builders as I know most of them, are friends with many, and feel that, for the most part, we have some very qualified, competent and ethical home builders in St Louis. Having said that though, I do realize that mistakes and accidents happen. Not to mention, given that a typical home inspection will cost less than $1,000 in most cases, that is a very small price to pay when making what is for most home buyers, the biggest investment they will make.
What could be wrong with a brand new home?
There are a myriad of things that could be wrong with a new home ranging from potential major structural issues, to issues with the systems, such as plumbing, electric, etc, dangerously high radon levels, to items that are more minor and cosmetic in nature. Some of the problems, if not discovered during an inspection, may surface quickly after moving in and in time to be covered by the builders warranty but others may lie dormant for a long time and not surface until a time when it may be difficult to get the builder to accept responsibility. Having a private building inspection will help discover the issues early, before the issue becomes a nuisance to you and while not having to worry about whether it’s covered by the warranty or not as you haven’t closed on the purchase yet.
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