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 Dennis Norman A report published by Lender Processing Services (LPS) analyzing homeowner’s performance on their mortgages as of June 2010 shows some encouraging news; there are signs that the foreclosure and mortgage delinquency rates are stabilizing, albeit at very elevated levels. Continue reading Foreclosure and Mortgage Delinquency Rates Stabilizing  Dennis Norman  Dennis Norman A report released by CoreLogic showed the St. Louis metro area to have a foreclosure rate in June of 1.48 percent up slightly from May’s rate of 1.46 percent and an increase of 28.7 percent from the year prior when the rate was 1.15 percent. Continue reading St. Louis Foreclosures Increase in June
Fannie Mae Rolls out New Loan Quality Initiative (LQI) Program – Tightens underwriting requirements and aims to reduce borrower fraud. These rules could derail some closings for buyers who rack up purchases or even take out new store credit cards before their home sales have closed. Continue reading Fannie Mae Tightens Rules; St. Louis Mortgage Watch Dennis Norman This morning S&P/Case-Shiller Index report for May was released showing that the annual growth rates in 15 of the 20 Metro Area’s their reports cover improved in May compared to April 2010. The 10-city composite is up 5.4 percent from the year before and the 20-city composite is up 4.6 percent from the year before. Continue reading Case-Shiller; Housing market not in any form of sustained recovery Dennis Norman Asking this question now is about like asking a newly divorced person their thoughts on marriage….nonetheless in challenging times many of us reflect upon our past investment decisions, investment philosophy, etc and see what can be learned from our past to help us in the future. Continue reading Is a home a good investment?  Dennis Norman Yes, the headline is correct….New home sales in June were up 23 percent from May, but unfortunately the revised May annual new home sales rate of 267,000 was the lowest rate of sale on record therefore even after a 23.6 percent increase it only brought June up to 330,000 new homes, a rate that is now the second lowest new home sales rate on record. June’s new home sales rate is 16.7 percent below a year ago. There is some good news in the report; the inventory of new homes (seasonally adjusted) at the end of June is 7.6 months, a 20.8 percent decrease from May’s revised inventory of 9.5 months and is a 10.6 percent decrease from June 2009 when the inventory was 8.5 months. My Mantra As has been my long-running mantra, I don’t like “seasonally adjusted” numbers and “rate” of sales. Why, for one I can’t figure out how in the world they compute the numbers. Second, I just don’t think discussing Here is the raw data, the ACTUAL new homes sold- no fluff, no “adjusting”
My prediction for 2010 I’m encouraged by indications of some price stability we are seeing as well as decreasing inventory of new homes. I’m concerned about the new home permits and starts as they appear to be greatly outpacing sales and could lead to increased inventories and I’m also concerned about the underlying economy and general anemic behavior of the real estate market. Clearly this market is not going to fix itself overnight, nor this year even. However, having said that, I’m going to stick with, what I think is perhaps somewhat optimistic, prediction of 336,600 – 355,000 new home sales in 2010. Dennis Norman Multiple Offers and Homes Selling for prices ABOVE list price? Is this a reprint of a post from 2005? Nope. Believe it or not, this is exactly what was in a report released this morning by Zip Realty. The report is based upon home sales activity in the second quarter of this year and says that, despite slowdowns in home sales across the country, California is still the nation’s hottest spot for home buying activity. California was home to 91 out of the country’s 100 “hottest” zip codes in terms of home sales during the quarter. Zip Realty’s definition of a “hot” market is one in where “homes were selling on average for most above list price“. So being the cynic that I can sometimes be, and, seeing how economists and reporters are constantly “playing with” stats to make them illustrate their point (I would never do this of course:) ) I guess from this report one could instead say that more California home owners under-price their homes more than anywhere else in the U.S. But let’s just stick with the “glass is half-full” approach and say the California market is hot. Highlights from the report:
Dennis Norman Home sales activity was up in May, but the mix of sales shifted toward less-expensive properties in many cities throughout the U.S. according to the May 2010 Radarlogic Housing Market Report. In addition, the report states that while their home price composite index for the 25 metro areas covered did increase in May by 2.1 percent on a year-over-year basis, the “gains were not large enough to be described as a recovery” and “there was more evidence of weakness in the market than strength.”
Highlights from the report include:
Dennis Norman Last month I said that I expected to see some elevated numbers in the existing home sales report for May and June since this report would reflect the actual closing of the home purchases from buyers that raced to buy before the April 30th home-buyer tax credit deadline. Even though Congress has extended the deadline to close on these purchases until August 31st, the majority of the tax-credit induced sales will have closed by June 30th and therefore be reflected in today’s report which I would say has happened. Today’s existing home sales report from theNational Association of REALTORS(R) shows existing home sales in June were at at a seasonally adjusted-annual rate of 5.37 million units which is a decline of 5.1 percent from May but is 9.8 percent higher than a year ago.. Prices on the rise for fourth consecutive month - The median home price in the U.S. in June was $183,700 an increase of 5.2 percent from May and an increase of 1.0 percent from a year ago when the median price was $181,800. Inventory levels increase- Inventories decreased in May after being on the rise three consecutive months but were back on the rise again in June as the number of existing homes for sale in June finally increased to 3,992,000, an increase of 2.5 percent from May and an increase of 4.7 percent from a year ago. The number of months “supply” this inventory represented in June, based upon current sales levels, increased to 8.9 months making it the highest level since August 2009. Metro Home Sales and Prices - NAR publishes existing home sales for 20 major metropolitan areas of the U.S. Highlights from that report include:
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist,said the market shows uncharacteristic yet understandable swings as buyers responded to the tax credits. “June home sales still reflect a tax credit impact with some sales not closed due to delays, which will show up in the next two months,” he said. “Broadly speaking, sales closed after the home buyer tax credit will be significantly lower compared to the credit-induced spring surge. Only when jobs are created at a sufficient pace will home sales return to sustainable healthy levels.” (hey, I’ve been saying this for months I don’t like “seasonally adjusted rates of sales”: If you have been reading my posts for a while you know by now I don’t like “seasonally adjusted” numbers when artificial stimuli, such as homebuyer tax-credits, can cause an unseasonal spike in sales activity. I much prefer to see the actual numbers and try to garner from them what is going on in the housing market. The following are the ACTUAL Existing Home sales reported by NAR without any adjustment or fluff:
Other highlights of the NAR Report:
My Take On the Numbers: We have clearly seen a boost to the housing market as a result of the home-buyer tax credit and continue to get a little support as the deals close. Unfortunately the economy still has major issues….Fannie Mae’s housing forecast in June took a sharp turn downward (which I will be writing about in the next day), unemployment increased today and there is still much political unrest in the country. I think the best we can hope for at this point is for some stabilization in the housing market which we are seeing some glimpses of. It will be quite a while before I will be using the “R” word though (recovery).
WHAT IS A CREDIT SCORE? Simply stated, credit scores area statistically-based tool to assess the future performance of a borrower. Scores are derived from the history of a borrower as it is reported to the credit repositories from any creditor. Credit scores are a proven indicator of the likelihood to repay a loan or credit obligation. The lower the score; the more risk from a borrower to repay a loan, on time and in full. Scores range from 400 to 850. This process was started by Fair, Isaac and Co., which is why credit scores are also called FICO scores. WHAT AFFECTS A CREDIT SCORE? Keeping a manageable amount of debt and paying on time are ways to positively affect a credit score. Bankruptcy, judgments, collections and liens most negatively affect scores. Scoring factors are “blind” and do not consider anything about an individual other than their creditworthiness. Credit inquiries can ‘ding’, or lower your score. However, any inquiries from one industry within a 30-day period count only once. For example, if a consumer is car shopping and visits three dealers in two weeks who check the consumer’s credit, this only counts as one inquiry and has a minor affect on the credit score. MORTGAGES AND CREDIT SCORES Often, underwriters use credit scores as a factor in determining loan approval. This is not the only factor considered, but a credit score can weigh on the loan decision. Good credit pays off. Some loan programs have credit score requirements or offer lower rates for higher credit scores. For example, a credit score above 720 may merit a 1/8% rate decrease. Borrowers that are financially sound enough to buy a home should receive a “market rate” for their loan. Home buyers with scores below 620 may incur higher rates (1-2% above market) or additional fees. Mitigating circumstances can help your approval process if you have credit issues. Your Paramount mortgage banker can help. To receive a free copy of your credit history you can log on to www.annualcreditreport.com or call 877-322-8228 toll free. You may also contact the credit bureaus directly:
St. Louis Mortgage Interest Rates – July 21, 2010 *
For more information or if you have questions on mortgage rates in St. Louis you may contact me by phone at my direct line, (314) 372-4319, email at rfishel@paramountmortgage.com or you can visit our company website at http://www.paramountmortgage.com.
*Note- The above rates are based upon a typical sale price of $187,500 with a 20% percent down payment leaving a loan amount of $150,000 to a borrower with a 720 credit score for a loan with no discount points charged. Rates and terms will vary depending upon loan amount, home value, credit and income of borrower. This information is provided by this author and this site for informative purposes only and is not warranted or guarteed in any way.
Dennis Norman This morning Standard & Poor’s released their S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Index for June showing that first-mortgage default rates declined 5 percent from the month before and were down 45.2 percent from a year ago. I have been saying for a while, we are not going to see any sort of sustainable recovery of the housing market until we see mortgage delinquency and default rates decline thereby bringing down the foreclosure rate and ultimately easing the downward pricing pressure on the housing market caused by foreclosures. Maybe, just maybe, this is the beginning of the trend for such a decline in delinquencies. Let’s hope we see similar declines in the coming months.
The U.S. Census Bureau and US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) issued a their report on New Residential Construction for June 2010 showing a decrease in building permits and a decrease in new home starts from May. The report shows the following:
As I say every month, we need to remember that all the numbers above are “seasonally adjusted” annual rates and the year over year comparisons are just comparing the numbers for June 2010 versus June 2009. Another way I like to look at where things stand is to simply look at the year to date data; actual numbers, not seasonally adjusted, compared to last years ytd numbers at this same time. I think this may give a little better comparison so those numbers are below:
Let’s do one of my favorite things and look at the raw numbers and not seasonally-adjusted numbers to compare construction activity to sales:
As expected, building permits and starts have dropped after the temporary spike upward which was the result of home-buyers rushing tobeat the tax-credit deadline of April 30th. A concern of mine however is that new home starts and permits continue to outpace new home sales in both YTD numbers as well as in the prior 12 month period as I have shown above. Replenishing inventory of new homes would make sense if the underlying real estate market was showing some solid signs of recovery and growth but unfortunately it is not so I’m afraid if this trend continues it is going to lead to an over-supply of new homes again which will not be good.
Dennis Norman Next month St. Louis County and St. Charles County will hold their annual collector’s real property tax sale. The City of St. Louis holds their property tax sale on five separate dates beginning in May and running through October. The general perception among many people is that at these sales property is sold for back-taxes owed, which is not entirely accurate. Under tax sales the property owner may in fact lose ownership of their property to the purchaser at the tax sale but, in St. Charles and St. Louis County, not until after a “redemption” period has passed and notifications required by State law have been complied with. The City of St. Louis operates under a different state law and their process does not allow a redemption period but does require the purchaser to have the sale “confirmed” by the courts at his expense. This process will require the purchaser to hire an appraiser to testify as to the reasonable value of the property. There’s another catch too…Assuming you are going to want title insurance, that is, a title insurance company to insure that you have “good title” such as you would on a normal home-purchase, then you are going to have to file a “quiet title” lawsuit against the property owner and all other parties with an interest in the property. Years ago when I was buying property at the tax sale I was able to skip this step, but in recent years the title companies have not been willing to insure the title without the suit. The quiet title suit will add time and money to the purchase of the property. Another little twist in the county sales (not including city of St. Louis) is there are two types of property tax sales; a first and second sale and then a third sale. In the first and second sale there are normally 3 years delinquent taxes and the “purchaser” at the tax sale will receive a purchase certificate. The current owner will then have one year to “redeem” the property. If the property is redeemed by the owner, then the holder of the purchase certificate will receive a refund of the money they paid for it, plus pro-rated interest at 10% per annum on the original delinquent tax amount for the period until redemption. If the owner does not redeem the property within the one year period, and the purchaser of the certificate gives proper notices, then they will receive a collector’s deed at that time. The St. Charles and St. Louis County tax sales will be held on Monday, August 23, 2010. For more information on the upcoming tax sales click on the links below:
Dennis Norman 07/17/10-Correction – This past week Congress passed H.R. 4173, the Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act which is the most comprehensive reform to the banking industry since the Great Depression. The bill now awaits President Obamas signature which is expected to happen in the coming week. This is a very comprehensive bill and I’m not sure even the Congressmen that passed it know everything that is in it, so I’m certainly not going to even pretend to know that much about the bill, but the one thing I do know is the Home Valuation Code of Conduct (HVCC) is dead. It’s been a while since I have written about HVCC but to refresh everyone’s memory HVCC is something has wreaked havoc with home buyers, REALTORS and appraisers. HVCC, which went into effect on May 1, 2009, has caused issues and confusion in the real estate industry and among professionals in the industry. Killing HVCC will be, in my opinion, be a positive thing for the real estate market.
Dennis Norman Missouri one of 32 States Identified as “Low” risk of mortgage fraud According to the 2010 Mortgage Fraud Trends Report released by CoreLogic this week, fraud risk in the mortgage industry has declined by 25 percent since it peaked in the third quarter of 2007. Even though the trend is down it is still estimated that there were $14 billion in fraud losses experienced in 2009 alone. CoreLogics’ fraud index can drill down to show states, cities and even streets that have the highest mortgage fraud risk. Highlights of the report:
How about that? They can even identify the “risky street”. In the case of the street in Orlando the report didn’t give a name but did say there were 28 loans on the street from 2007 to 2008, the same company was the seller in most cases and the properties are now selling for about 10 percent of what they originally “sold” for. Dennis Norman According to a report released this morning by RealtyTrac there were 1,961,894 foreclosure filings in the first six months of 2010 on 1,654,634 housing units in the U.S. This reflects a 5 percent decrease from foreclosure activity for the prior 6 month period but is an 8 percent increase from the same period of 2009. What is just a sickening statistic in the report is that, during the first six months of 2010, 1.28 percent of all housing units in the U.S., or one in 78, received at least one foreclosure filing during that period. For the month of June there were foreclosure filings reported on 313,841 U.S. properties, a decrease of nearly 3 percent from May and a decrease of nearly 7 percent from June 2009. However, June marked the sixteenth consecutive month with over 300,000 foreclosure filings during the month. James J. Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac, said “the midyear numbers put us on pace to exceed 3 million properties with foreclosure filings by the end of the year, and more than 1 million bank repossessions…….the roller coaster pattern of foreclosure activity over the past 12 months demonstrates that while the foreclosure problem is being managed on the surface, a massive number of distressed properties and underwater loans continues to sit just below the surface, threatening the fragile stability of the housing market.” States with Highest Foreclosure Rates in first half of 2010-
So while it is good to see the month-over-month foreclosure rates decrease the rates continue to hover around record levels which is not good. Plus, as Mr. Saccacio addresses with his comment about the massive numbers of distressed properties and underwater loans “sitting just below the surface” and as I addressed last week in my post ‘Shadow’ Foreclosure Inventory is the 800 lb Gorilla, this problem is far from over unfortunately.
The mortgage industry has underwent some dramatic changes in the past year as has the regulations and rules the industry must comply with. Lender’s are barely able to keep up with everything new so it’s not surprising home-buyers have many questions when it comes to obtaining a mortgage to buy a home. Therefore, I thought I would take this opportunity to provide a list of questions that a home-buyer should ask their lender that I think will be helpful. Oh, and since I am a loan officer in St. Louis, I did take the liberty of giving my answer to these questions Q: Are you a Banker or a Broker? A: Mortgage Bankers are companies that fund their own loans with their own money. Mortgage Brokers rely on a third party to make the transaction happen. Paramount is a Mortgage Banker – no delays for closing – we’ll be there with the check! Q: How can I help the transaction along? A: Your responsiveness can make a difference in meeting the closing date. Please return any requested paperwork to Paramount as soon as you can. Schedule inspections as quickly as possible to allow for any maintenance that may be required. Q: Who makes the decision on my loan? A: We have staff underwriters for FHA, VA and Conventional loans, so we are able to make credit decisions quickly and in-house. Paramount is a locally owned and operated independent mortgage company. Most of our employees are native to St. Louis so we understand the nuances of our town. Q: Will I need Mortgage Insurance? A: Mortgage Insurance is required on all loans with less than 20% down to cover the lender in case of default. Private Mortgage Insurance (PMI) for conventional loans can be paid monthly or financed through the term of the loan, while FHA loans have an up front fee as well as a monthly premium. Another option is a Combo Loan – a first and second mortgage – to avoid a PMI premium. Q: How is my home value determined? A: Paramount uses certified appraisers with decades of experience and a thorough knowledge of the industry and metropolitan area. To ensure the integrity of valuation we do not accept appraisals from non-certified or non-approved appraisers. Q: When do I lock in an Interest Rate? A: First you need a signed real estate contract and a firm closing date. You will lock in your rate once the loan program is determined and you are satisfied with the rate available. We recommend locking in quickly to avoid any potential upswing in the market. Q: Will I get the best rate possible? A: You will get the best loan program – including rate, APR and terms – for your needs. We evaluate your current financial situation and where you anticipate you will be down the road to determine what the best program will be for you and your unique needs; down payment assistance, limited documentation, lowest monthly payment, minimize PMI exposure, etc. More than rate determines the best loan for the buyer.
Q: Who will be at the closing? A: Paramount will be there! Typically the borrower and anyone on the loan papers and your realtor attend closing. Paramount is at every closing delivering the closing documents and check which could save you on title company charges. If you have more questions or would like additional information feel free to contact me using the contact information at the bottom of this post. St. Louis Mortgage Interest Rates – July 14, 2010 *
For more information or if you have questions on mortgage rates in St. Louis you may contact me by phone at my direct line, (314) 372-4319, email at rfishel@paramountmortgage.com or you can visit our company website at http://www.paramountmortgage.com.
*Note- The above rates are based upon a typical sale price of $187,500 with a 20% percent down payment leaving a loan amount of $150,000 to a borrower with a 720 credit score for a loan with no discount points charged. Rates and terms will vary depending upon loan amount, home value, credit and income of borrower. This information is provided by this author and this site for informative purposes only and is not warranted or guarteed in any way.
Dennis Norman According to a report released by Trulia.com, 24 percent of the homes for sale as of July 1, 2010 have experienced at least one price cut. This is a 9 percent increase from the prior month. Western U.S. Leads with Price Reduction Increases For the first six months of this year, cities in the Western U.S. saw a reduction in their price declines, however for this month those same cities have experienced some of the largest surges in price reductions in the U.S. when compared to the prior month. Oakland saw a 38 percent increase in price reductions, San Diego 25 percent, Honolulu (wow, way west) 21 percent and Las Vegas reductions increased by 20 percent. Most of the largest U.S.cities saw Price Reduction Increases Twenty two of the top 50 cities across the U.S. experienced price reduction levels at 30 percent or more, compared to just 10 cities in the previous month. Minneapolis leads the way with 40 percent of its home listings experiencing at least one price cut. This is the third straight month that Minneapolis has held the top spot and no other city has reached the 40 percent mark since Trulia started tracking home price reductions in April 2009. With an average discount for price-reduced homes at nine percent, the city’s total dollar amount slashed from home prices was $30.1 million. Luxury Market Still Hardest Hit Luxury homes (those listed at $2 million and above) continue to be hit the hardest by price reductions with the average discount being 14 percent off list price. To see Trulia’s report showing price reductions for the 50-largest cities in the U.S. as of July 1, 2010 click here.
Dennis Norman According to a report issued today by CoreLogic, their home price index shows home prices in the U.S. increased in May, marking the fourth-consecutive month there was a year-over-year increase in home prices. U.S. home prices in May 2010 increased by 2.9 percent over May 2009. St. Louis home prices did better than the U.S. average, increasing by 3.49 percent in May 2010 compared with May 2009. No doubt some of the good news was the result of buyers rushing to buy a home before the April 30th deadline to receive tax credits. This will affect the market, and home prices, in a positive manner until these “tax-credit-induced” sales close by the recently extended deadline of September 30, 2010.
Dennis Norman Last month I wrote about a new policy implemented by Fannie Mae that would “lock-out” borrowers from getting a Fannie-Mae insured loan for 7 years if they did a “strategic default” or otherwise did not act in good faith and were foreclosed upon. In a nut shell, the borrower that Fannie Mae is targeting here is the borrower that has the financial ability to make their payments, accept a loan modification or other “work-out” from Fannie Mae but instead chooses just to walk away from their home and letting the lender foreclose. In addition to locking out borrowers from a new loan for 7 years Fannie Mae has also made it clear in a recent announcement that they will “take legal action to recoup the outstanding mortgage debt from borrowers who strategically default on their loans“. Obviously, they can only do this in those States that allow a lender to sue a borrower for a deficiency but if you live in one of those states are are thinking of doing a strategic default on a Fannie Mae insured loan, you may want to think twice. Or at least be sure you get appropriate legal advice first and explore other options that are available to you. Fannie Mae said that this month (July) they will be instructing its servicers to monitor delinquent loans facing foreclosure and put forth recommendations for cases that warrant the pursuit of deficiency judgments.
Dennis Norman For way too long I’ve been writing about record, or near- record, levels of foreclosures and mortgage delinquencies. My ongoing concern about this, in terms of the housing market, is that I just don’t see how we are going to have a sustainable recovery of the housing market while we have 1 in 8 homeowners with a mortgage in the U.S. currently either delinquent on their mortgage or in some stage of the foreclosure process. Lately there has appeared to be some leveling off of mortgage delinquencies and foreclosure growth is at a slowing rate, both of which are good things. Earlier this week I wrote about a report that came out from LPS Applied Analytics, one of the largest mortgage servicers in the U.S., that discussed the mortgage delinquency rate for May. This morning I was giving more thought to something in the report that I saw the other day but it didn’t hit me at the time but now I realize it is potentially the 800 lb gorilla in the room. According to the report, the average number of days for a loan to move from 30 days delinquent to foreclosure sale has been steadily increasing and is now at an all-time high of 449 days. So, if you add the initial delinquency, that means on average 479 days lapse from the time a borrower misses a payment until they are foreclosed on. While I love the amount of time the struggling homeowner has to stay in their home before losing it, it concerns me greatly that it is taking about 16 months for the lender to complete a foreclosure, and that this is a record high amount of time. What that tells me is, for one reason or another, lenders are stalling and slowing the foreclosure process so any encouragement we have seen of late in this area may be “artificially created” as the result of lenders reluctance to foreclose rather than a result of the housing market and economy actually improving. The problem is the lenders can’t put off the inevitable forever…at some point they are going to have to pick up the pace and start foreclosing on loans rather than stalling and that I’m afraid is going to keep the foreclosure rates at levels that will negatively impact the housing market. Dennis Norman I may be getting desperate to find something good to write about with regard to the Housing Market, but nonetheless I found some good news today! According to a report titled “Foreign Investment in U.S. Real Estate” that was released recently by the National Association of REALTORS®, investment in residential real estate in the U.S. by foreigners shot up by almost 80% for the 12-month period ending April 2010 from the 12 month period ending April 2009. For the 12 month period ending April 2010 foreign purchases of residential real estate in the U.S. totaled $64 billion which is almost double the $36 billion in foreign purchases for the 12-month period ending April 2009. Not surprisingly, the bulk of this activity took place in States that are popular vacation destinations, which also include some of the states where home prices have been beat down the hardest and foreclosure activity the greatest. Florida led the way with 22 percent of the foreign purchases being in the sunshine state, followed by California at 12 percent, Arizona at 11 percent and Texas at 8 percent.
The extension is included in the Home Buyer Assistance and Improvement Act and will prevent as many as 180,000 home buyers from losing their eligibility for the tax credit. These borrowers had home purchase contracts pending as of April 30 and had until June 30 to close on their purchases to claim the federal tax credit; with this extension, these households now have until September 30 to close and still claim the tax credit. Separately, the U.S. Senate also passed the National Flood Insurance Program Extension Act of 2010, extending the National Flood Insurance Program until September 30. This will allow home purchases in the 100-year floodplain to move forward. The House passed the bill last week. St. Louis Mortgage Interest Rates – July 7, 2010 *
For more information or if you have questions on mortgage rates in St. Louis you may contact me by phone at my direct line, (314) 372-4319, email at rfishel@paramountmortgage.com or you can visit our company website at http://www.paramountmortgage.com.
*Note- The above rates are based upon a typical sale price of $187,500 with a 20% percent down payment leaving a loan amount of $150,000 to a borrower with a 720 credit score for a loan with no discount points charged. Rates and terms will vary depending upon loan amount, home value, credit and income of borrower. This information is provided by this author and this site for informative purposes only and is not warranted or guarteed in any way.
Dennis Norman Homeowners’ mortgage delinquency rates increased in May 2.3 percent from April rising to 9.2 percent of all mortgages being delinquent. This information comes from a report issued by LPS Applied Analytics, one of the largest mortgage servicers in the U.S. According to the report there are, as of May 31, 2010, 7.3 million home mortgages currently in some stage of delinquency. After seeing a couple of months of improvement there was a turn for the worse in May of the “deterioration ratio”, the reltionship between the number of loans going to a “worse” status for every one that has improved. In May this deterioration ratio increased to 2.5 loans getting worse for every 1 getting better. Other highlights from the report:
When you really give some thought to these statistics I think you’ll find them disturbing, making even sickening, to think that almost 1 out of every 10 homeowners with a mortgage in the U.S. are delinquent on their mortgage (and ultimately at risk of losing their home) and that about 1 in every 8 borrowers are either delinquent on their mortgage or in some stage of foreclosure. So if sometimes while reading my posts you wonder why I seem somewhat negative, or even cynical, toward some of the reports about a “recovery” of the housing market, now you know why. I’m no economist but I just don’t see how we can have a housing recovery while 1 in 8 of us are either losing or at risk of losing our homes. Mortgage Delinquency and Foreclosure Rates by State:  Source: LPS Applied Analytics
Dennis Norman While there has been much discussion about the causes and effects of the Housing Boom as well as the Bust (including by yours truly in prior posts) I don’t think we need to refrain from continuing to examine this part of history that is affecting millions of people across the country. Perhaps we can learn some lessons from this that will help us avoid another such collapse of the housing market in the future. My topic today actually has a silver lining of sorts. The topic is debt and how so many homeowners across the country leveraged themselves into a mountain of debt during the housing boom only to later have that mountain collapse on them. My attention was drawn to this subject by a presentation done by Karen Dynan of the Brookings Institution entitled “Household Leveraging and Deleveraging“. American’s Debt Grew At a Much Faster Pace Than Income As you can see from the chart below the percentage of American’s disposable personal income that is needed to pay debt payments on mortgage and consumer debt peaked in the mid to late ’80s just over the 12 percent range but then dropped back down to just below 11 percent by the early 90′s. By the height of the real estate boom this percentage had grown significantly and peaked at just under 14 percent in 2007. Clearly the cost of home ownership during the boom was increasing at a faster pace than homeowners income.
 Chart by Information St. Louis, Inc. - Data Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Dynans’ report attributes the rise in debt to having probably been “the combination of increasing house prices and financial innovation.” I think “financial innovation” is a nice way to describe sub-prime, interest only and other such creative ways to finance homes that became prevalent during the boom. As the chart below depicts, consumers mortgage debt grew dramatically during the housing boom even though “other debt” remained fairly constant.
 Source: Household Leveraging and Deleveraging - Karen Dynan “Everyone” Was Borrowing – Not Just Sub-Prime Borrowers Contrary to what is sometimes portrayed, it wasn’t just sub-prime borrowers that were racking up debt during the housing boom. The chart below shows a fairly consistent increase in household debt across several demographics.
 Source: Household Leveraging and Deleveraging - Karen Dynan Obviously this rather rapid and intense increase in household debt, particularly mortgage debt, is a major factor behind the record number of mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures we are currently seeing. Rising home prices (at astonishing rates in some markets) during the boom forced many homeowners to take on more mortgage debt than they should. Many even admit buying homes with initial “teaser” interest rates realizing they would not be able to afford the payment in two years when the teaser is gone, but simply planned to sell the home (at a profit) beforehand and move on. This, like musical chairs, works until the music stops as it did in 2007. The Importance of Defaults If you have defaulted on your mortgage or lost a home in foreclosure, you are helping out our economy! Well, sort of. According to Dynan’s report, the record rates of charge-offs by lenders of mortgages as a result of defaults and foreclosures that have occurred in the past year has resulted in mortgage debt in 2009 declining 2 percent rather than staying flat.
 Source: Household Leveraging and Deleveraging - Karen Dynan Now for the Silver Lining- I promised you a silver lining and here it is. American’s now have less household debt! Beginning with the 2nd quarter of 2008 consumers home mortgage debt, after increasing over a trillion dollars just two years before, actually decreased and has continued decreasing every quarter since. Consumer started decreasing as well in the 4th quarter of 2008 but has grown slightly again in the 1st quarter of this year.
 Source: Household Leveraging and Deleveraging - Karen Dynan In addition, as the debt-service chart at the beginning of this post shows, the portion of income that is necessary to pay debts for the American consumer has fallen over 1 percent from it’s peak and is still headed downward. Is This Self-Control Or Is There No Choice? Ah, critics could argue that the consumer has not really learned anything from the housing bust and the only reason debt has dropped is that banks and other lenders aren’t lending. Well, it is certainly true that lending standards have tightened significantly and bankers are acting like, uh, well, bankers again (the pre-boom ones) as shown by the chart below. However, Dynan’s report indicates that 20 percent of senior loan officers reported in May 2010 that demand for consumer loans had fallen relative to 3 months earlier. Probably better proof that consumers are exercising self-control is the MBA mortgage application survey which, in recent weeks, have shown a decrease in mortgage applications from both home-buyers as well as home owners seeking to refinance.
 Source: Household Leveraging and Deleveraging - Karen Dynan What Does The Future Hold In Store? Karen Dynan suggests that we are going to see consumers continue the trend of reducing debt. She bases this on the high ratio of average household debt to assets which, as the chart below illustrates, peaked in the past year at a level that was 50 percent higher than in 2000.
 Source: Household Leveraging and Deveraging - Karen Dynan Dynans’ report goes on to say the following about the future:
Dennis Norman Less Is More Over the past decade or so it seems everything has gotten “super-sized” to the point of absurdity in my opinion. Therefore I find it refreshing to see that, according to the “Home Trends 2010″ report by the Real Estate Buyer’s Agent Council, home buyers are scaling down both in size and in features. Perhaps the past couple of years has humbled many of us and given us a different perspective on materialistic things? Anyway, before I go off on a tangent, here are highlights from the Home Trends report:
The ten most likely features that builders will include in a new homes:
New homes are no doubt being built with affordability and efficiency in mind. Nonetheless buyers seem unwilling to give up master bedroom suites with nice master baths, although some of the “super-size” stuff is gone, such as multiple shower heads. What else is getting cut? According to the report, builders say that an outdoor kitchen is the first to go as well as outdoor fireplaces, sun-room, butlers pantry and a media room. So, I wonder what is going to happen to all those “McMansions” that were built during the last decade as us baby boomers age, become empty-nesters and don’t need the space? Hmm…not so sure the X’rs and Y’rs are going to super-size their space.
There was no question in my mind that home sales would plummet after the April 30th deadline to buy a home and qualify for the home-buyer tax credit passed, the only question was how bad? Today the National Association of REALTORS released it’s Pending Home Sales Index for May showing a decrease of 30.0 percent in the index from April (seasonally adjusted) and a 15.9 percent increase from May 2009. In my past articles I have spoke of a “sugar-rush” created in the market by the tax credits and the sudden slow-down after that wears off…we are now seeing this. Unfortunately the tax-credits could not ‘fix” the market, it was just a band-aid to spur some activity. The market won’t get fixed until the economy is in better shape; people have jobs and the foreclosure rate drops dramatically. Here are highlights from the report:
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said “Consumers are rational and they rushed to meet the tax credit eligibility deadline in April. The sharp decline in contract signings in May is a natural result with similar low levels of sales activity anticipated in June,” he said. “Surprisingly, though, some local markets such as Portland, Maine, and Jacksonville, Fla., actually experienced an increase in contract signings from a year ago without the tax credit.”
The state of Missouri funded a $15 million tax credit incentive program in January of this year to help spur home sales, but few have taken advantage of the program. Now, Missouri home buyers must complete the purchase of their home by August 31, 2010 to take advantage of the program. The Missouri Housing Development Commission (MHDC) must receive their HOPE application by September 30, 2010. HOPE stands for Home Ownership Purchase Enhancement. Homes purchased after August 31, 2010 will not be eligible for the HOPE program. The HOPE program was expected to pay the property taxes for 9,000 to 11,000 Missouri families. As of last week less than 1,500 home purchasers are participating. There is approximately $12 million still available for income-qualified home buyers. You do not have to be a first-time buyer to participate. All tax credit funds are available on a first-come, first-served basis. In the face of a more austere budget for 2011, Governor Jay Nixon is “slowing down” MHDC’s process of awarding tax credits. His goal is to cut the state’s 2011 budget $350 million and gain legislative approval by the end of this fiscal year on June 30. Under the HOPE program MHDC provides incentives up to $1,750. Up to $1250 is available to pay the first year property taxes for income-eligible Missourians who buy a new or existing Missouri home after Jan. 1, 2010. An additional $500 is available for “green” homes or energy-efficient improvements. Homeowners who bought a qualified newly constructed energy efficient home or bought an existing home and remodeled or purchased items, such as Energy Star® appliances, to make the home more energy efficient can apply for the additional money. In the St. Louis metro the one- to two-person maximum gross household income qualification for the St. Louis MSA counties of Franklin, Jefferson, Lincoln, St. Charles, St. Louis City, St. Louis County, and Warren is $67,900. For a 3+ person household the maximum gross income is $78,085. In MHDC’s designated targeted areas the maximums are $81,480 and $95,060 respectively. For further information, go to the MHDC website: www.mhdc.com St. Louis Mortgage Interest Rates – June 30, 2010 *
For more information or if you have questions on mortgage rates in St. Louis you may contact me by phone at my direct line, (314) 372-4319, email at rfishel@paramountmortgage.com or you can visit our company website at http://www.paramountmortgage.com.
*Note- The above rates are based upon a typical sale price of $187,500 with a 20% percent down payment leaving a loan amount of $150,000 to a borrower with a 720 credit score for a loan with no discount points charged. Rates and terms will vary depending upon loan amount, home value, credit and income of borrower. This information is provided by this author and this site for informative purposes only and is not warranted or guarteed in any way.
Dennis Norman Average discount on Foreclosure and Bank-Owned Homes is 27 Percent This morning RealtyTrac released a report stating that 31 percent of all residential sales in the first quarter of 2010 were foreclosure homes or bank-owned homes. They are reporting 233,000 foreclosure and bank-owned homes sold during first quarter 2010 at an average price discount of 27 percent (based upon average sale price of non-foreclosure properties). This data is fairly consistent with date from the National Association of REALTORS which reported there were right at 1 million existing homes sold in the first quarter of 2010 and roughly 35 percent of those were “distressed” sales. Do the math and this works out to about 350,000 distressed sales which, in addition to foreclosures and bank-owned homes which are counted in RealtyTrac’s numbers, also include short-sales which are very prevalent in many markets. The bottom line is, distressed sales and foreclosures have a huge impact on the housing market, particularly home prices, and, as I have been saying for some time now, we will not see the housing market stabilize until the foreclosure rate recedes from record levels and starts heading back down toward a “normal” rate the market can live with. Highlights of the RealtyTrac Report:
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the “rate” of new home sales paints a realistic picture of the market. I think this holds especially true when we have artificial forces affecting the housing market such as tax credits as we have seen what an artificial “bubble” in the market this can cause.
The average discount for price-reduced homes continues to hold at 10 percent off of the original listing price.
So there you have it, some good news!
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