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Dennis Norman This morning S&P/Case-Shiller Index report for the third quarter or this year was released showing home prices declined 2.0 percent in the third quarter after having risen 4.7 percent in the second quarter. Nationally, home prices are 1.5 percent below where they were a year ago. In September, 18 of the 20 metro areas covered by the report had declines in the home price index. After surging in the second quarter, mortgage fraud case activity sank in the third quarter based on the Third Quarter 2010 Mortgage Fraud Index from Mortgage Daily. The Mortgage Fraud Index came in at 1007 during the third quarter – falling 41 percent from the second quarter. The index hasn’t been this low since the first quarter 2008, when it was just 713. Today, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and U.S. Census Bureau released new home sales data for October 2010 showing a decrease of 8.1 percent from the month before, but a decrease of 28.5 percent from a year ago. The seasonally-adjusted new home sales rate for October was 283,000 homes, a 8.1 percent decrease from Septbmer’s rate of 308,000 homes. The supply of new homes on the market increase from an adjusted 7.9 month supply in September to a 8.6 month supply in October. The median new home price decreased for the month to $194,900 from $226,300 the Continue Reading → Today’s existing home sales report from theNational Association of REALTORS(R) shows existing home sales in October were at at a seasonally adjusted-annual rate of 4.43 million units which is a decrease of 2.2 percent from September and is a decline of 25.9 percent from a year ago. On the heels of the post I just did on shadow inventory, it is good to see a positive report on mortgage delinquencies! According to a report issued by TransUnion, mortgage loan delinquencies in the third quarter of this year declined 3.45 percent to 6.44 percent, marking the largest quarterly decline since the fourth quarter of 2006. A report released today by CoreLogic shows that, while the overall inventory of homes for sale has remained the same in the past year at 4.2 million new and existing homes for sale as of August, the number of homes in “shadow inventory” has grown from 6.1 million a year before to 6.3 million as of August, 2010. According the to the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR), the largest obstacles to the recovery of the housing market are job creation and the availability of credit. At their board meeting last week, NAR approved a credit polity to urge the mortgage lending industry to “reassess and amend their policies so more qualified home buyers can become home owners.” According to a survey just released by Transunion, Landlord’s and Property managers appear to be making it through the Great Recession and are seeing improvement in the market from their perspective. In fact, seven out of 10 property managers said their rental properties have no vacancies, an increase of almost 17 percent from a year ago. Only 39 percent of respondents said they’re having difficulty finding residents in today’s economic climate. Additionally, more than 3 out of 4 respondents (76 percent) said rental prices have either remained the same or increased since last year. The U.S. Census Bureau and US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) issued a their report on New Residential Construction for October 2010 showing a slight increase in single-family home building permits and a small decrease in new home starts compared to the month before. Price Reductions Surpass Highest Historical Levels in 15 U.S. Cities, Remain Flat Nationwide According to a report released this morning by Trulia.com, 27 percent of the homes for sale in November have experienced at least one price cut. Following four-consecutive months of increases, this rate has now flattened out nationwide. However, locally the story is different as 15 major cities hit an all-time high for price reductions in November. “Price reduction increases in many large U.S. cities can be attributed to the basic principle of supply and demand –– on that score, buyers clearly have the advantage this Continue Reading → A “first-look” report issued by Lender Processing Services, one of the countries largest loan servicers and aggregators of loan performance data, is somewhat encouraging as it shows the U.S. mortgage delinquency rate (not including foreclosures) for October was 9.29 percent and, while that is a terribly high rate, it is just barely higher than Septembers’ rate of 9.27 percent. Mortgage delinquencies are a “leading indicator” of foreclosures, so perhaps that means we are getting close to the foreclosure activity leveling off. Last week the co-chairs of the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform (the group that is supposed to figure out how to rescue our country out of the financial quicksand it’s in) issued a draft proposal of a plan the committee says “will make America better off tomorrow than it is today”. In addition to such enlightening statements such as “America cannot be great if we go broke” the report outlines a plan that makes five basic recommendations: Speaking at the National Consumer Law Center’s Consumer Rights Litigation Conference in Boston, Federal Reserve Governor Sarah Bloom Raskin delivered some sobering news about the Fed Reserve’s expectations for the housing market. Raskin discussed how foreclosures on residential properties soared from about one million in 2006, the “peak of the boom”, to 2.8 million last year. There were 1.2 million foreclosure filings in just the first half of 2010 and, right now, nearly five million loans are somewhere in the foreclosure process or are 90 days or more past due. Raskin said “our projections remain very grim for Continue Reading → Dennis Norman A study by Coldwell Banker Real Estate LLC shows that this fall as parents said goodbye to their college-bound kids, fewer of those kids were heading to dorms or apartments that are typically associated with college housing but instead will be heading to homes their parents bought for them to live in. In fact, 64 percent of real estate professionals in college towns surveyed said they had seen a significant number of “parent investors” buying homes for their kids to live in while attending college. Time is running out to take advantage of two tax credit programs that are a result of the expanded recovery act: The “Nonbusiness Energy Property Credit” and “Residential Energy Efficient Property Credit” programs both offer homeowners the opportunity to receive tax credits for energy-efficient upgrades, but the programs end this year. Dennis Norman The National Association of REALTORS® just released their 2010 Survey of Home Buyers and Sellers which shows that people still look at home ownership as a good long-term investment and the typical seller is experiencing positive returns from home ownership. Dennis Norman At the National Association of REALTORS® Conference and Expo in New Orleans today, “a slow, steady recovery” was predicted for the housing market despite ongoing challenges. Lawrence Yun, National Association of Realtors® chief economist, said that he expects “continuing improvement of underlying fundamentals of the current market in coming years.” Dennis Norman The National Association of REALTORS Pending Home Sales Index for September shows a decrease of 1.8 percent in the index from the month before (seasonally adjusted), and a 24.9 percent decrease from a year ago. Dennis Norman In a loud and unified voice, 83.7 percent of the voters yesterday voted in favor of Missouri Constitutional Amendment 3, the ban on future transfer taxes or fees on real estate in Missouri. In a huge victory for Missouri property owners, this effort, spearheaded, and funded in a large part, by the Missouri Association of REALTORS, insures that Missouri remains free from this tax that many, including yours truly, consider a form of double taxation. Missouri is one of only 13 states in the U.S. that do not have a transfer tax imposed at the state Continue Reading → Michigan couple awarded $600,000 judgment against Worth Township; Proof that you can fight city hallDennis Norman Who says you can’t fight City Hall and win? Well, it wasn’t easy, nor quick, but George and Margaret Paeth of the Worth Township in Michigan have”beat” City Hall and been awarded $600,000 by a Federal Court Judge. According to a press release by their attorney’s, Daniel P. Dalton and Pauline J. Pensler, this judgment is “one of the largest procedural due process and First Amendment retaliation verdicts in the nation, and the largest for the Eastern District of Michigan’s federal courts.” Dennis Norman A report released by CoreLogic showed the St. Louis metro area to have a foreclosure rate in August of 1.52 percent which is a slight increase from July’s rate of 1.48 percent but is an increase of 25.6 percent from the year prior when the rate was 1.21 percent. Comparatively speaking, St. Louis is in good shape as the national foreclosure rate for August was 3.2 percent, almost double our rate here. Dennis Norman Finally, some more good news about the housing market! TransUnion released a study of mortgage delinquency “roll rates” (when delinquent borrowers move to a more delinquent status, say from 30 days late to 60 days late, then 90 and so on) which showed that mortgage delinquency roll rates peaked in the summer of 2009. According to the study, approximately 24.4 percent of consumers who were 30 days past due on their mortgage payments in June 2009 became 60 days past due in July 2009 and nearly 37.6 percent of consumers 60 days delinquent on their mortgage Continue Reading → Dennis Norman Now that the controversial (to put it mildly) Home Valuation Code of Conduct (HVCC) has been put to rest as part of The Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform, Fannie Mae has released their “Appraiser Independence Requirements“. Fannie Mae says the purpose of these requirements is to: Protect the independence of appraisers and the integrity of their appraisals. Extend these important protections for home buyers, mortgage investors, and the housing market. Reinforce Fannie Mae’s commitment to responsible lending and mortgage quality standards. Continue Reading → Dennis Norman Today, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and U.S. Census Bureau released new home sales data for September 2010 showing an increase of 6.6 percent from the month before, but a decrease of 21.5 percent from a year ago. Dennis Norman This morning S&P/Case-Shiller Index report for August was released showing a deceleration in the annual growth rates of home prices from the month before in 17 of the 20 Metro areas covered by the report. The Case-Shiller Home Prices Indices for the 20 metros showed a decrease of 0.2 percent in home prices in August from July and an increase of 1.7 percent in home prices from the year before. Dennis Norman According to a report issued yesterday by CoreLogic, home prices in the St. Louis area decreased in August 2010 by 3.53 percent from the year before, over twice the US rate of price decline for the same period of 1.5 percent. However, distressed home sale prices are to blame and appear to be causing more damage in the St. Louis housing market than on the US housing market on average. I say this because the data shows if we exclude the distressed sales then home prices in St. Louis only declined 0.28 percent for the same Continue Reading → Dennis Norman The U.S. Department of the Treasury and the Department of Housing and Urban Development today released their “October 2010 Scorecard” on the “Obama Administration’s Efforts to Stabilize the Housing Market”. The scorecard points out the success of “The President’s housing market recovery efforts” but does point out that “data in the scorecard also show that the recovery in the housing market continues to remain fragile.” Dennis Norman Today’s existing home sales report from theNational Association of REALTORS(R) shows existing home sales in September were at at a seasonally adjusted-annual rate of 4.53 million units which is an increase of 10.0 percent from August but is a a decline of 19.1 percent from a year ago. Dennis Norman A new Harris Poll shows that more people would like to live in, or near, New York City than any other city in the U.S. San Diego came in second and Las Vegas third. This should not come as a surprise as this Harris Poll has been done annually since 1997 and New York City has ranked number one every year except 1998 when it fell to second behind San Francisco. Dennis Norman If there is a silver lining to the lousy real estate market we’ve witnessed over the past 3 years, maybe this is it….housing affordability! According to the Beacon Economics Home Affordability Index, homes selling in August were at their most affordable level sinde data became available over 40 years ago (1969). The Beacon Index, quite similar to the National Association of REALTORS housing affordability index, takes into account the percentage of income an average family would need to make mortgage payments on an average home. |
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