In the ever-shifting sands of the real estate market, timing can be the key to unlocking exceptional value. A recent comprehensive study by ATTOM Data Services, which analyzed over 47 million home sales, uncovers a surprising twist specific to the Missouri housing market. While the national trend leans towards October for optimal home buying, Missouri charts a different course, offering a unique window of opportunity for prospective buyers.
Discovering Missouri’s Seasonal Advantage
This extensive study paints a vivid picture of real estate trends, providing invaluable insights for both buyers and sellers. For Missouri, the findings point to December as a golden month for home purchasing, differing from the national trend. This divergence presents a strategic opportunity for buyers in the state to potentially secure better deals.
What This Means for St. Louis Home Buyers and Sellers
In the St. Louis real estate market, the latest data presents a compelling narrative for immediate buyer action. With December’s arrival, historically marked as the most advantageous month for home purchases in Missouri, buyers are positioned to capitalize on potentially lower prices. This trend aligns closely with the findings from my recent analysis on interest rates dropping to their lowest in over two months. Together, these factors create a prime environment for buyers in the current market. For sellers, this period warrants a strategic review to align with the unique opportunities that December offers.
As of yesterday, the mortgage landscape has seen a notable shift, with the interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate conventional mortgage dropping to 7.13%, marking the lowest point since September 1, 2023, when it was 7.08%. This recent decrease offers a glimmer of hope in the housing market, especially considering the turbulent fluctuations witnessed over the past months.
Equally promising is the rate for 30-year fixed-rate FHA loans, which as of yesterday stood at 6.5%, again the lowest since September 1, 2023, when it recorded a rate of 6.45%. These latest figures suggest a trend that could lead to revitalizing buyer interest and market activity, a welcome change from the higher rates experienced in the recent past.
This positive turn in mortgage rates is particularly significant for markets like St. Louis, where the real estate dynamics are closely tied to these financial trends. For buyers, the dip in rates presents a more favorable scenario, potentially making home ownership more accessible than it has been in recent times. Sellers, too, might find reasons to be optimistic, as lower rates could translate to increased market interest and activity.
The chart below illustrates the history of mortgage interest rates, offering a clearer perspective on the recent changes and their implications.
Mortgage Interest Rates (interactive chart)
(click on chart for live, interactive chart)
The real estate market has always been sensitive to interest rate changes, and the current shift could be the beginning of a more encouraging phase. Whether this trend will continue remains to be seen, but for now, it offers a much-needed respite and a reason for cautious optimism in the housing market.
Why This Webinar Is Critical for Your Career The Sitzer v. NAR verdict marks a significant turning point in our industry. This webinar is crafted to help you understand and leverage these changes for your professional growth. Expect to gain:
Comprehensive Insights on the Sitzer v. NAR Verdict: Delve into the verdict’s details and its broader legal implications.
Industry Impact Evaluation: Discover how these shifts will influence your business and the real estate market at large.
Strategies for Navigating Change: Learn effective ways to adapt and thrive in the evolving real estate environment.
Exploration of Innovative Tools: Uncover cutting-edge resources to enhance your business operations and market analysis.
Panel of Experienced Voices As your host, Dennis Norman, with 45 years in the St. Louis real estate scene, I aim to share insights that blend practical experience with strategic foresight. Joining me are my business partners, John Williams and John Donati, both seasoned professionals with deep insights into these recent developments. Our collective experience in leadership within the REALTOR® organization and MLS will provide you with a rich perspective on adapting to industry changes.
Growth and Networking Opportunities This webinar is more than a learning experience—it’s a platform for professional growth and networking with peers dedicated to excellence and adaptation in real estate. It’s an avenue for you to connect with trends, tools, and strategies that will define the future of our industry.
Reserve Your Spot Now Ensure your participation in this pivotal discussion by securing your place at the webinar. Visit MORETrainingCenter.comor scan the QR code below to register. Let’s embark on this journey of growth and adaptation together in the St. Louis real estate market.
In a remarkable turn of events, just minutes after the jury sided with the homeseller-plaintiffs in the landmark Sitzer | Burnett trial, attorney Michael Ketchmark wasted no time in launching another legal salvo against the real estate industry. This new class action lawsuit, filed on behalf of three new homesellers, aims to further scrutinize the practices surrounding agent commissions.
The Defendants
This new lawsuit expands the list of defendants to include: Compass, eXp World Holdings, Redfin, Weichert Realtors, United Real Estate, Howard Hanna, and Douglas Elliman. Notably, the National Association of Realtors is once again named as a defendant, marking its continued entanglement in legal challenges related to commission structures.
The Allegations
The plaintiffs in this new case echo the grievances aired in the Sitzer | Burnett lawsuit, claiming they have been adversely affected by a “real estate industry conspiracy” that artificially inflates agent commissions. The suit alleges that this practice has a cascading effect, ultimately driving up costs for homesellers.
Legal Venue
The lawsuit has been filed in the United States District Court for the Western District of Missouri, the same jurisdiction that recently saw the Sitzer | Burnett plaintiffs awarded $1.785 billion in damages.
What This Means for the Industry
The filing of this new lawsuit so swiftly on the heels of the Sitzer | Burnett verdict could signal a wave of legal challenges aimed at traditional real estate commission models. Industry stakeholders will undoubtedly be watching closely as this new case unfolds, given its potential to further disrupt established practices and financial structures within the real estate market.
In a groundbreaking development, the jury in the Sitzer v National Association of REALTORS®, et al, lawsuit has returned a verdict in favor of the plaintiffs. According to reports by Inman News, the jury found against all defendants and awarded a staggering $1.785 billion in damages. This decision could have far-reaching implications for the real estate industry, potentially reshaping commission structures and business practices.
The lawsuit, which has been closely followed since its filing in 2019, questioned the legality of certain real estate commission practices. The verdict is likely to send shockwaves through the industry, prompting legal reviews and potentially setting the stage for further litigation.
It remains to be seen how this verdict will impact the real estate market in the long term, but it is clear that the decision marks a significant moment in the ongoing debate over real estate commissions and transparency.
Stay tuned for more updates and in-depth analysis on what this verdict means for the future of the real estate industry.
I’ve been discussing and writing about the Sitzer v National Association of REALTORS®, et al, lawsuit since it was originally filed in 2019. My previous articles on this case, as well as the Moerhl suit—a similar lawsuit filed in Illinois—can be found at the links below, which are in chronological order with the most recent first:
Today marks the end of the second week the trial has been underway, and it’s time to take stock of what has transpired so far.
Key Developments
Motions and Counter-Motions
Motion to Enforce Court Order: BHH Affiliates, LLC, HSF Affiliates, LLC, and HomeServices of America, Inc., filed a motion to enforce a court order. This motion was subsequently denied by District Judge Stephen R. Bough.
Deposition Designations: The court overruled most of the defendants’ objections regarding the deposition of Kevin Goffstein, allowing most of the deposition to be part of the trial record.
State Statutes and Regulations: A significant ruling came when the court prohibited the defendants from using state statutes and regulations as exhibits.
Legal Maneuvers
Pro Hac Vice Admission: Ian T. Hampton was allowed to appear pro hac vice to represent HomeServices of America, Inc.
Motions in Limine: Multiple motions in limine were filed by both parties, aiming to limit the evidence that can be presented during the trial.
Motions for Judgment as a Matter of Law: Both the National Association of Realtors and Keller Williams Realty, Inc., filed motions for judgment as a matter of law, which were denied by the court.
Trial Proceedings
Jury Trial: The jury trial has been ongoing, with proceedings taking place almost daily. The court has been in session for extended hours, indicating the complexity and importance of the case.
Witness Withdrawals: Plaintiffs withdrew David Liniger and Jay Papasan as witnesses to be called by videotaped deposition.
Jury Instructions: Various motions and objections were raised concerning the jury instructions, including a specific motion by Keller Williams Realty, Inc., for a Jury Instruction on Missouri State Law.
The first two weeks of the trial have been action-packed, with both sides employing various legal strategies. The court has been diligent in its rulings, aiming to ensure a fair trial. As we move into the next phase, it’s clear that the outcome of this case could have far-reaching implications for the real estate industry. Stay tuned for more updates as the trial progresses.
Seller impersonation fraud, also known as deed fraud, is a growing concern in the real estate industry. This type of fraud involves forging the property owner’s signature to illegally transfer ownership of the property. A recent case in the City of St. Louis serves as a cautionary tale for homeowners.
A Disturbing Case in St. Louis
Bernadette Brown, a member of the Royal Realty Group LLC, recently discovered that a property owned by the LLC at 1129 Penrose Street, St. Louis, MO 63107, was conveyed to Keith Brown via a Quit Claim deed. Bernadette Brown claims her name was forged on the deed, which was then notarized by a non-existent notary. This alarming incident underscores the need for homeowners to be vigilant in monitoring their property records.
How to Protect Yourself
Fortunately, there are several ways homeowners can protect themselves from becoming victims of deed fraud:
Property Fraud Alert Services
Many counties offer free services that alert property owners when deeds or other documents related to their property are filed. Property Fraud Alert is one such service, available in 23 counties in Missouri, including the City of St. Louis, St. Louis County, St Charles County, Jefferson, and Franklin. These alerts can serve as an early warning system, allowing you to take immediate action if you suspect fraudulent activity.
Title Reports
If you have concerns about your property, you can order a title report from a local title insurance company for a modest fee. M&I Title* in St. Louis, MO, is one such company that can provide this service. A title report will confirm the name under which the property is registered and identify any deeds of trust against it.
REALIST Reports
Agents from MORE, REALTORS can assist you by pulling a REALIST report from the MLS at no charge. This report will provide some basic information about your property, offering another layer of protection against fraud.
For more insights and advice on the St. Louis real estate market, stay tuned to StLouisRealEstateNews.com.
*Disclosure: I have a financial interest in M&I Title.
As if there wasn’t enough negative attention on the real estate industry, last week a study was released, “Et Tu, Agent? Commission-Based Steering in Residential Real Estate.” The study suggests that buyer agents may steer their clients away from properties offering low commissions. It argues that this is a key reason why agent commissions have remained high in the digital age, even as commissions in other industries have declined. According to the report, listings with the lowest commissions take 33% longer to sell and face a 75% greater risk of not selling at all.
So, is this true?
That’s a difficult question to answer. First, as the chart below indicates, the average commission rate offered to a buyer’s agent in the St. Louis market has remained relatively stable. For over 20 years, the annual average rate has been 2.7%, with the only exception occurring in March 2010 when it rose to 2.925%. Given that most listings offer the same commission rate, it’s challenging to determine if agents are steering away from low commissions. However, this consistency might support another allegation: that the industry has established a “normal” commission rate. It’s hard to deny some level of pressure on listing agents to offer a specific commission rate when thousands of listings end up offering the same rate. Moreover, offering a “below-normal” commission rate as a listing agent can attract criticism from peers.
As I’ve previously discussed, the National Association of REALTORS¬Æ (NAR) is grappling with a myriad of challenges. These range from multiple class-action lawsuits to scrutiny from the Department of Justice (DOJ). This past week, the organization faced two more setbacks.
In another blow to NAR yesterday, the United States Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit overturned a lower court’s dismissal of a lawsuit. This lawsuit was filed by Top Agent Network, Inc., accusing NAR of violating the Sherman Antitrust Act through its “MLS Clear Cooperation Policy.”
Indeed, it’s been a challenging week for NAR, and it’s only Tuesday.”
I’ve been in the real estate business since I was 17, which means it has been 45 years of experiencing various market conditions, including recessions, inflation, 18% mortgage rates, the burst of the housing bubble, and a myriad of other good and bad things. However, I can confidently say that I have never witnessed a real estate market quite like the one we have been experiencing in the past couple of years.
So, what makes the current real estate market so unique?
First and foremost, I’ve pondered this question extensively, and I honestly can’t recall a time in this industry when the supply of homes for sale was not at least 4 to 6 months’ worth. Although there was a brief period in 2015 when the inventory of homes in St. Louis fell below 4 months, it quickly returned to nearly 5 months. From 2016 until early 2020, the inventory fluctuated between approximately 2 and 3 months, and then began a downward trend, hitting a record low of less than a 1-month supply in the latter part of 2021. While the supply has slightly increased since then, it still hovers around 1 month.
Months of Inventory – St Louis 5-County Core – 2013 – 2023
This situation showcases the basic law of economics—supply and demand. The supply of homes for sale in St. Louis is exceptionally low, and even though the number of home buyers in the market has seemingly declined significantly over the past few years, there still isn’t enough supply to meet the demand of the remaining buyers. Consequently, in accordance with the law of supply and demand, prices tend to rise when supply is insufficient to meet demand. While it’s easy to increase widget production to meet demand, it’s not as simple to suddenly add thousands of homes to the market in the St. Louis real estate market. Factors such as a lack of available land for development in high-demand areas, lengthy approval processes for new developments, labor shortages in the trades, difficulty in controlling construction costs, and the significant time required to bring a substantial number of homes to the market contribute to this complexity. As a developer, I can attest that the development process is lengthy enough for the market dynamics to change entirely before the first home hits the market.
So, where did all the houses go in St Louis? Why aren’t there more homes for sale?
Today, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Seventh Circuit denied a motion by the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) and other defendants in the Moehrl v. The National Association of Realtors lawsuit. The motion sought to appeal the decision certifying this case as a class action lawsuit. As a result of this denial, the lawsuit will be allowed to proceed.
Click here or on the image below to see the full ruling.
As the infographic below illustrates (which is available exclusively from MORE, REALTORS®) the median price of a home in St Louis (the 5-county core market) has increased 112% since 2000, from $124,900 in 2000 to $265,000 in 2022. During the same time period, the median lease rate, or rental rate, for a St Louis home has increased by just 68%, moving from $955 in 2000 to $1,600 in 2022.
Leasing a home is obviously a better deal, right?
If we set aside the benefits (and responsibilities) of homeownership and the long-term investment aspects, simply looking at the monthly cost might lead us to the conclusion that renting a home in St. Louis could likely save us money compared to buying one. After all, if we just consider the fact that during the aforementioned 22-year period, the cost of buying a St. Louis home increased by nearly 65% more than the cost of leasing one, we would certainly lean towards that conclusion. However, if we account for interest rates, which impact the monthly cost of owning a home (assuming financing is involved), we find that the gap significantly narrows. This is because even though interest rates are higher now than they were just a year or two ago – in fact, roughly double – they are still lower than they were in 2000.
Factoring in interest rates, the gap between buying and leasing narrows significantly.
In 2000, interest rates for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage varied but averaged roughly 7.5%. In contrast, they were around 6% in 2022. As the infographic shows, when we take these rates into account to assess the monthly cost of owning a home, we observe that even though home prices have risen by 112% since 2000, the house payment on a median-priced home has only risen by 82%. While the increase in house payments at 82% is still greater than the 68% increase in leasing, the gap is much smaller. Once other benefits of homeownership are factored in, it becomes easier for many people to justify the additional cost of ownership.
To clarify, I am not claiming that homeownership is for everyone or that leasing is inherently inferior. In fact, I’ve been one of those people who have consistently said that homeownership isn’t for everyone. For many individuals, based on factors like their likelihood of relocating, job and financial stability, money management skills, and others, leasing can be a better alternative. I am simply trying to highlight that the cost gap between the two options may not be as wide as it initially appears.
First and foremost, let me emphasize that home selling methods and practices are not a “one size fits all” approach. There are certainly situations where a different or unique strategy is required, including, in extreme cases, one that may not be in the seller’s best financial interest but favors a higher priority for the seller. For instance, I once handled a home sale for a woman with a stalker ex-husband who wanted her home sold discreetly – no sign, no ads, no MLS, etc. In her case, privacy and conducting the sale “under the radar” for her personal safety were more important than money. This article addresses the broader market and my opinion will apply to most sellers looking to sell their homes.
Now, let’s discuss an “office exclusive” listing.
Understanding this concept is a great starting point and highlights one of the reasons I’ve been writing articles about St. Louis real estate, St. Louis REALTORS®, and the St. Louis real estate industry. I believe that, in general, consumers lack sufficient knowledge about these matters to make the best choices for themselves when selecting agents to work with. As a result, I aim to share the insights I’ve gained from over 40 years in the industry. For example, most non-agent readers may not know what an “office exclusive” listing entails or whether it’s advantageous or disadvantageous for them as sellers. So, what is an office exclusive listing? In short, it’s a listing that the agent will “keep secret” to a large extent, only informing agents within their real estate brokerage and withholding your listing from the REALTOR® Multiple Listing System (MLS). Consequently, your listing will not be distributed to the thousands of websites that obtain listing information from the MLS (Zillow, Realtor.com and StLouisRealEstateSearch.com?agent_id=02107 to name a few).
Earlier this week I wrote an article addressing some of the current issues that will likely significantly impact the residential real estate business. IIn the article, I suggested that, as a result of the various challenges to present-day practices, sellers may no longer be required to pay commissions to the buyer’s agent in the near future. Does this mean the role of the buyer’s agent in a transaction is going away and that buyer’s agents are not needed? The short answer is no, buyer’s agents are not going away.
So, buyer agents won’t be impacted by these changes?
Wait, I didn’t say there no impact or effect on buyer’s agents, I said, generally speaking, they are not going away. However, this doesn’t mean that there won’t be real estate agents leaving the profession as a result of not being prepared, able, or willing to deal with the changes. Some agents will leave the profession because, quite frankly, with the change in the way buyer’s agents are compensated, they will find that there are not enough people who see value in paying them to represent them. I know this sounds a little harsh, but I’ll explain what I mean in more detail below.
The bar will be raised…
While my earlier statement sounds a little harsh, I think the reality is that agents that are not committed to this profession, lack the knowledge and skills they should have and don’t deliver the level of representation and service they should to their clients, are going to find it hard to survive in the business in the near future. As transparency increases on how buyer’s agents are compensated, particularly when it becomes known that the compensation is either coming directly from their buyer client or indirectly from them, buyers are likely to be more selective about the agents they choose to work with. Some may argue that buyers may opt to forego having a buyer’s agent and deal directly with the listing agent instead to save some money. I will address that in more detail later, but for the most part, I don’t think that will be the case. Instead, good agents, those who know this business and the market and are true professionals with their clients’ interests at heart, will be rewarded.
Let me begin by saying that I’m not a sensationalist, nor am I an advocate for everything I write about. Additionally, I am not an attorney, so this not a legal opinion. I am simply a real estate broker that has been very active in the profession and industry for over 40 years now. I strive to stay on top of industry and market changes so that the agents in our firm, MORE, REALTORS®, and their clients can avoid surprises and be prepared. Another reason I do this is to share what I have learned with consumers. I believe that by sharing good, relevant and accurate information to consumers, they will be equipped to make better decisions when it comes to buying or selling real estate, including how to choose an agent to best represent them.
So, what is going to turn the real estate industry upside down?
Yes, I made a rather bold statement in my headline, but I believe it to be an accurate depiction of what is coming to the world of residential real estate, including right here in St Louis. The source of this disruption is not a single entity, but rather many. While there is a common theme to the multiple threats, they are coming from different sources. Over the past few months, I have written about all the issues I’m referring to, so below is a summary of them and links to the original articles:
Moerhl v NAR Lawsuit. 3/22/2019 – This suit was filed against The National Association of REALTORS® (NAR), Realogy Holdings Corp, HomeServices of America, Inc, Re/Max Holdings, Inc and Keller Williams Realty, Inc. The suit alleges that the defendants were “conspiring to require home sellers to pay the broker representing the buyer of their homes, and to pay at an inflated amount, in violation of federal antitrust law.” At the heart of this claim is the NAR rule that requires sellers to offer compensation to the buyer’s agent in order to be eligible for listing in the MLS.
Department of Justice (DOJ) Complaint against NAR. 12/01/2020. The DOJ filed a complaint against NAR, as well as a settlement agreement, focused on two primary issues; 1. Allowing buyer brokers to misrepresent to buyers that a buyer broker’s services are free; 2.Enabling buyer brokers to filter MLS listings based on the level of buyer broker commissions offered and to exclude homes with lower commissions from consideration by potential home buyers;
The National Association of REALTORS (NAR) just released its pending home sales report for October 2022 which revealed pending home sales in the U.S. were down 37% from October 2021. The Northeast market had the smallest decline in year-over-year pending home sales with a decline of 29.5% followed by the Midwest with a decline of 32.1%, the South with a decline of 38.2%. The west region of the U.S. saw the biggest decline in pending home sales with a decline of 46.2% from October 2021 to October 2022.
The St Louis market is performing better…
While the NAR does not publish pending home sales data for St Louis, MORE, REALTORS has its exclusive STL Real Estate Trends Report. This report shows new contracts accepted during a period so, since a pending home sale starts with a contract being accepted, this gives us a very similar caparison. As the table below shows, New Contracts in the St Louis 5-County Core Market for October 2022 were down 24% from October 2021. This is a significantly smaller decline in sales than reported at the national level (37%) or even for the Midwest (32.1%).
If you’re heard it once, you’ve likely heard it a hundred times, “all real estate is local”. This is why you can’t put too much faith in national news or data if you are interested in buying or selling a home in St Louis. This is also why at MORE, REALTORS®, we put so much time, effort and money into producing the best and most accurate local data we can. We think it’s important to bring the data and information down to the local level.
“Homebuyers are canceling deals at highest rate since start of COVID” was the headline earlier this week on Inman News, an online real estate industry publication read by many brokers and agents. My usual response to news like this is “I wonder if that’s true in St Louis?” and I set out to pull the data to see.
There is not really a way to count “canceled” deals…
While I don’t know exactly what the writer of the Inman article was referencing in terms of “canceled” deals. However, in a typical contract to purchase a home in St Louis only gives the purchase one way to “cancel” a contract and that is in the building inspection contingency where the purchaser has the right to terminate the contract for no reason. When that happens it is not reported to the REALTOR® Multiple Listing Service (MLS) as a “canceled” listing however, it is simply put back on the market. There are certainly other reasons contracts fail and listings come back on the market such as the buyer’s inability to get financing, appraisal issues, etc.
The pending home sales index from the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) was released showing the midwest region as the only region that had an increase from March to April. According to the NAR report below, the pending home sales index for the midwest increased 6.6% from March to April while declining 3.9% for the nation as a whole. As the table below shows, all while all four regions in the U.S. saw a decline in the pending home sales index from a year ago, the midwest fared the best again showing only a 2.8% decline while the other regions all saw a double-digit decline.
In an article published yesterday, I referenced the Sitzer vs National Association of REALTORS law suit and said I would have a more in-depth discussion about that suit and here it is. The lawsuit was filed by Joshua Sitzer, Amy Winger, Scott and Rhonda Burnett and Ryan Hendrickson on June 21, 2019 against the National Association of REALTORS® and the parent companies of major real estate companies and franchises including Coldwell Banker, ReMax, Keller Williams and Berkshire Hathaway Homeservices.
The Sitzer lawsuit was filed in the United States District Court for the Western District of Missouri sought to be certified as a class action lawsuit on behalf of “all persons and entities who listed properties on one of four Multiple Listing Services…and paid a broker commission from at least April 29, 2015 until the Present…“. The four MLS’s listed in the suit that this applies to are:
Heartland MLS (Kansas City, MO)
MARIS MLS (St Louis, MO)
Southern Missouri Regional MLS (Springfield, MO)
CBOR MLS (Columbia, MO)
Last Friday, April 22, 2022, Stephen R. Bough, a Federal Judge for in the Western District of Missouri, issued an order granting the class action status for the lawsuit the Plaintiffs sought.
The past several days have not been good for the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) from a legal perspective at least.
First, last Friday, April 22, 2022, Stephen R. Bough, a Federal Judge for in the Western District of Missouri, certified a lawsuit against NAR as a class action suit.The suit, known as the “Sitzer” suit as the original plaintiffs were Joshua Sitzer and Amy Winger, alleges that the defendant, the National Association of REALTORS® “created and implemented anticompetitive rules which require home sellers to pay commission to the broker representing the home buyer“. The plaintiffs in the suit also allege that the other defendants, which include Realogy Holdings Corp, Homeservices of America, Inc., Re/MAX LLC and Keller Williams Realty, Inc., “enforce those rules through anticompetitive practices.” I believe this action by the court was expected and likely did not come as a surprise to anyone but it was not good news for NAR or the other defendants. In the coming days I’ll be doing an in-depth article on this one.
Then, yesterday, the United States Court of Appeals for the 9th Circuit delivered another and this time, a likely unexpected, blow to the National Association of REALTORS® in the form of a reversal of a suit against NAR that had been dismissed previously by a lower court. The suit, PLS.com v. the National Association of REALTORS®, is another suit alleging anti-trust violations by NAR and the other defendants which are all MLS’s. The suit was brought originally by PLS.com as a result of NAR enacting its “Clear Cooperation Policy” which for all intents and purposes, dictates to agents and brokers how and when they can market their listings. I’ve written several articles specifically on this policy in the past which can be found using the following links:
Yesterday, I wrote an article addressing the high rate of inflation just reported and its impact on the St Louis housing market. In it, I promised to take a deeper look into the effect of the current events related to the economy on St Louis home prices which I will do in this article.
Before I go further, I should mention I’m not an economist nor a fortune teller. I am, however, a real estate broker and data nerd that has spent over 40 years in the St Louis real estate industry. I try my best to use my knowledge and experience to anticipate changes in the market and use this to help our agents and clients use this information to their advantage.
History always repeats itself..
I find the above old adage to be pretty accurate when it comes to the real estate market. Therefore, in trying to get my head around what impact a high inflation rate may have on home prices, I started by going back to prior periods of high inflation rates.
The first chart below shows the rate of inflation, interest rates, and the St Louis home price index. I’ve made some notes on it to show prior inflationary periods and the effect on home prices. The first period, the early 80s was much worse than today as inflation was higher and interest rates were in the stratosphere hitting 18%. The more recent period around 2007-2009 was not as severe and therefore the impact on home prices was not as dramatic as the former either. As you can see on the far right side of the chart, home prices have increased in the past several months at a sharp rate with the change from a year ago being greater than the last inflationary period but not as great as the one from the early ’80s.
The next chart shows the relationship between home prices and rent. When home prices outpace rent, home prices decline, when rent outpaces home prices, prices rise. As the chart shows, these two lines have converged indicating a reasonable balance between home prices and rent.
During the period of 2007 – 2011 home prices fell over 17% during a four year period before finally bottoming out.
As the charts below illustrate, at the beginning of this year, mortgage interest rates for a 30-year conforming conventional loan were at 2.771%, FHA loans were at 2.703%, and VA loans were at 2.372%. As of yesterday, those rates have increased to 3.357%, 3.468%, and 3.101% respectively.
While conforming 30-year conventional loans have seen an increase of 21% in rates (from 2.771% to 3.357%), FHA loans have seen an increase of 28% (from 2.703% to 3.468%) and VA loans have seen an increase of 30% (from 2.372% to 3.101%).
What does this mean in terms of the cost of a home?
To make the comparison simple, I’ll just base my comparison on the price of a “typical” home in the St Louis 5-county core market using the median price of homes sold in October which was $234,900. Downpayments will vary based upon loan type from no downpayment being required on a VA loan, to a minimum of 3% on a conventional and 3.5% on an FHA but based upon a loan amount equal to the median price of $234,900, below are the differences in the monthly payment on that amount by loan type from the beginning of this year until now:
Conventional – $948 to $1,023
FHA – $939 to $1,038
VA – $898 to $990
If we factor in the increase in home prices, it gets worse.
In the “to add insult to injury” category, home prices have increased significantly since January as well, In January the median price was $215,000, so between then and October the median price of a St Louis home increased 9.2%. With the interest rates increasing at the same time the cost of a typical St Louis home increased fairly significantly as shown below:
Conventional – $867 to $1,023 (+18%)
FHA – $859 to $1,038 (+21%)
VA – $821 to $990 (+21%)
The moral of the story…don’t wait to buy.
While I certainly can’t predict the future, especially given all the uncertainty in our economy with inflation, employment issues, etc, if I were in the market to buy a home I don’t think I would wait “until things get better”. The reason for my opinion is, as I’ve illustrated here, the true “cost” of a home (assuming you are not paying cash for it) is a combination of price and interest rate. So, even if home prices see an adjustment or the seasonal dip we often see during winter if interest rates continue to rise, is the higher cost of borrowing going to offset the lower price? I think that is a possibility. Or, the flip side, if interest rates go down but then prices go up, is the savings in lower rates lost?
To benefit from waiting, in terms of the cost of the home, we would need interest rates to stay the same, or decline and home prices to decline or interest rates to drop and home prices stay the same. Right now I don’t see either of the two aforementioned scenarios likely to happen.
In spite of the challenges of a low-inventory market as well as the threat of inflationary pressure on the economy, St Louis home sales still remain strong. As the infographic below shows (exclusively available from MORE, REALTORS®) year-to-date home sales through October of this year are outpacing last year by over 5% and the prior 3 years as well by an even larger margin!
Mortgage interest rates were at 2.65% for a 30-year fixed-rate loan at the beginning of this year, according to Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey® and rose through the late winter months and started the spring housing season with rates hitting 3.18% on April 1st. This rate was the highest rate since June, 2020 when rates hit 3.21% and was the highest level for interest rates in 2021. This past week, according to the same market survey, the 30 -year fixed-rate mortgage interest rate hit 3.09%, the highest level in six-months, but still below the peak rate for the year of 3.18%.
As the chart below illustrates, mortgage interest rates for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage have spent most of the time this year between about 2.75% and 3.0%. This is a pretty narrow fluctuation range and, even at the high of the range, or at the peak rate of 3.18% for this year, is still historically very attractive as evidence by the second chart below, one that shows mortgage interest rates for the past 10-years.
Like the majority of real estate companies in St Louis, our firm, MORE, REALTORS® is a member of the National Association of REALTORS®. One of the things that go along with membership is to agree to abide by the Code of Ethics. Within the code of ethics, is Article 12 which states, in part, “REALTORS® shall be honest and truthful in their real estate communication and shall present a true picture in their advertising, marketing, and other representations.” As with every article in the code of ethics, there are “standards of practice” to serve as examples of how that article should be applied. For this article there is Standard of Practice 12-2 which states “REALTORS® may represent their services as “free” or without cost even if they expect to receive compensation from a source other than their client provided that the potential for the REALTOR®to obtain a benefit from a third party is clearly disclosed at the same time.”
I have always taken exception to that standard of practice for a couple of reasons, including:
I don’t believe the statement is true.
I think good buyer’s agents work hard, know the value they bring to their clients and earn what they are paid. To think that an agent has to represent that their services are free in order to get a client to use them I feel is an insult to a professional agent.
The reason behind my first issue above is that while in a traditional home sale, the buyer may not directly pay the agent representing them (the buyer’s agent) they pay them indirectly. Typically, when a home is listed and sold using a REALTOR®, the seller agrees to pay commission to their agent (the seller’s agent) as well as to the Buyer’s agent. Why would a seller agree to do this? Well, they basically have no choice as, if they want their home listed in the REALTORS® MLS system (who doesn’t?), they must offer a commission to the agent that sells the home as it’s a rule. So, like it or not, the seller is going to “agree” to pay the buyer’s agent’s commission. To say the total commission the seller is paying does not affect the price they accept I think would be disingenuous. So, if the commission the seller has to pay affects the price they will accept from a buyer and the commission the seller is paying includes the buyer’s agents commission, I think it’s safe to say the buyers agents services to the buyer are not “free”.
The Department of Justice must feel the same way…
Clearly, I’m not the only one out there that feels this way. Last November the DOJ (Department of Justice) and NAR (National Association of REALTORS®) entered into a settlement agreement to end an investigation. One of the things NAR had to agree to was to no longer permit buyers agents to advertise that their services were free. Recently, this agreement fell apart and the DOJ and NAR are involved in legal battles now so we’ll see where that goes.
Why a good buyer’s agent is more than worth the cost…
So now I’ll get to my second point. A good, professional buyer’s agent is worth every dollar they make on a transaction and, quite frankly, often don’t really get paid enough. Before you roll your eyes and think I’m just another one of those people that have “drank the REALTOR® KOOL-AID®”, stick with me. I assure you I’m not one of those, I hate KOOL-AID®, avoid sugar as much as I can, and I don’t like hypocrites. I like to tell it like it is. Often, I’m very supportive of the real estate industry, the people in it the practices, etc, however, there are times I am not. But, getting back to buyer’s agents, I want to add another caveat…note the adjectives I used; “good and professional”. I’m not in any way saying all agents are created equal nor that all agents are worth what they get paid. However, there are a lot of great ones that are very dedicated to their profession, love serving their clients, do so in an exceptional way and more than earn the commission they make. I feel blessed in that in our firm, MORE, REALTORS® I’m literally surrounded by agents like that.
What are you going to do for me that makes you worth the price I’m going to pay for your representation? This is a good question to ask an agent you are considering to represent you as a buyer’s agent. If it were me, here are some of the things I would like to hear in the response as well as be convinced that this is what past clients have experienced and what I can expect from the agent:
Their knowledge and experience of the local market. They should know what the housing market is like, the prices, the trends, the inventory, etc.
Their knowledge of the type of real estate you are looking for. For example, if you love older homes, such as the 80+-year-old ones that exist in Kirkwood, Webster Groves, you are going to want an agent with extensive knowledge of older homes. This will be invaluable to you when evaluating the condition of the home, reviewing your building inspection, etc. If you are looking for a mid-century modern, it would help to have an agent that knows what you are talking about as well as where to find that style of home.
Their knowledge of the process and guidance they will give you. Today, we are very much in a seller’s market and buyers are having to compete with often a dozen or more offers on a home. You want an agent that is detailed, knows the process, the contract, and has a great grasp on how to best prepare you so that, when the time comes, your offer is seen in the best light possible by the seller. A good agent will not leave anything to chance in this area.
Their relationship and reputation in the industry. There is a fine line on this one, as you don’t ever want to choose an agent that is more concerned with what the agent on the other side of the deal thinks of them rather than fearlessly representing your best interests. However, you don’t want an agent that has a bad reputation in the industry or is known as someone that is impossible to work with. I would want to find one that I’m convinced will always have MY best interest in mind, that understands their fiduciary obligation to me, and is well respected by their peers.
Their commitment to my best interest. I would want an agent that is laser-focused on my interests and is going to work to do their best to get me what I want under the best terms and price. But, at the same time, someone that is confident and professional enough to also “stand up to me” if necessary to set me on the right track or to keep me from shooting myself in the foot.
When you take the time to go through some of the things above with an agent and find one that stands out as the best and most professional to represent you, I can almost guarantee that you are more than getting your money’s worth. I see it time and time again with our agents, where through knowledge and advice, negotiation or strategy, they save their clients not only money (and likely often more than the agent is being paid) but also time and frustration.
So, as my headline says, Buyer’s Agents AREN’T Free and as the things I point out above nor should they be.
Now it’s time for a shameless plug…do you want to be connected with a great, professional agent that is a Master of Real Estate? Just give me a call at 314.332.1012 or email me at Dennis@stlre.com and after I understand your wants and needs, I’ll connect you with the perfect agent for you!
In June of this year the Median price of homes sold in the St Louis 5-County core market was $266,000, 6.4% higher than the median list price of $250,000 for those homes sold. This breaks the record of 4.4% set in April and is the highest gap we’ve seen between the median sold price and listing price since we’ve been tracking it, In July the gap narrowed though, albeit slightly, with the median price of homes sold coming in at $265,000, 6.0% higher than the median list price of $250,000. Worth noting as well is between June and July, the median list price of homes in the St Louis 5-County core market stayed the same and the median sold price decreased 0.3%..
St Louis 5-County Core – Sold Price to List Price – July 2020 – July 2021 Chart
In April of this year the Median price of homes sold in the St Louis 5-County core market was $250,000, 4.4% higher than the median list price of $239,450 for those homes sold. This is the highest gap we’ve seen between the median sold price and listing price since we’ve been tracking it. Last month the gap narrowed though with the median price of homes sold in May coming in at $258,000, 3.2% higher than the median list price of $249,900. Worth noting as well is between April and May, the median list price of homes in the St Louis 5-County core market increased 4.4% and the median sold price increased 3.2%.
St Louis 5-County Core Sold Price to List Price Chart
In December I wrote aboutmultiple class-action lawsuits filed against the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR), as well as some of the largest real estate brokerages, like ReMax and Keller Williams as well as a Department of Justice (DOJ) complaint filed again NAR over issues related to the lack of transparency in the home buying process.
The aforementioned complaints claim, among other things, that there has been an effort by the defendants to force buyers to pay an “inflated” price for a home as a result of the buyer not realizing the seller was forced to offer a commission to a buyer’s agent in order to get their listing in the MLS. In addition, they claim that NAR and its members misrepresented to buyers that a buyer’s agent’s representation and services were “free”, when in fact their agent was being paid a commission, which came from the seller and as a result, they claim this expense inflated the cost the buyer was forced to pay for the home.
I’m not here to address the accuracy of the claims made in these complaints nor get into an analysis of the legal merits of the case, but instead just want to address the changes I see that have already taken place or will take place in the home-buying process. NAR has already reached a settlement with the DOJ in which they (NAR) agreed to make several changes, so those are pretty easy to predict and I think I have a reasonable idea of some other changes that will come along in the comings months as well.
[xyz-ips snippet=”Homes-For-Sale”]
So, what are these changes I see coming to the home-buying process in terms of transparency?
Below are some of the changes I already see or expect to see:
Buyer’s agents aren’t FREE, nor should they be. NAR has already agreed to prohibit their members from claiming their services are free as they are not. A good buyer’s agent is invaluable to a home buyer and not only will earn the commission they make but in many cases, will “pay for themselves”. What I mean by this is their guidance and advice to their clients, which comes from their knowledge of the market and process, as well as experience, will help their clients avoid pitfalls and to make informed, good decisions.
Commission transparency. Prior to the lawsuits, many MLS’s around the country, including the one that serves the St Louis area, prohibited the amount of commission being offered to a buyer’s agent by the seller from being shown on broker’s real estate search websites. MARIS, the company that provides the MLS for St Louis area REALTORS® was quick and pro-active in this area and began allowing brokers to display buyer’s agent’s commission on their websites. I’m happy to say that my company, MORE, REALTORS® was, I believe, one of the first brokerages in the area to begin displaying this information. On STLMLS.com consumers can find the amount of commission being offered to buyer’s agents on listings. In the interest of full disclosure, I should mention I’m on the board of directors for MARIS and I’m an officer and shareholder of MORE, REALTORS.
Sellers won’t have to offer to pay a buyer’s agent to get in the MLS. While the first two bullet-points above are things that have happened, now I’m predicting what will happen. I believe that soon, perhaps as soon as “months” or as long as a year or two, the MLS requirement that a seller offers compensation to a buyer’s agent to have their listing be in the MLS will be dropped. This is nothing that should cause panic as buyer’s agents won’t go away nor work for free, it’s just the structure of the transaction will change. The changes made will no doubt provide a much greater level of transparency to the buyer though as I believe they will have a clear picture of the process including how their buyer’s agent is getting paid.
Agents won’t have to be REALTORS® to be part of the MLS. Even though this is already true in several parts of the country, most MLS’s require that agents be a REALTOR® (so be a member of the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR)) to join the MLS. I believe that all MLS’s in the country will be forced to allow participation by all licensed real estate brokers and agents and not just REALTORS®. I think my prior prediction will come to fruition sooner and this one will follow so it will likely be a couple of years at least before this happens.
The bottom line is some obstacles exist today for the real estate industry as well as there are changes taking place and more coming. While many folks don’t embrace change, call me a Pollyanna, but I think the result will be positive both for the real estate professional as well as the consumer that is buying or selling a home.
I’ll close with a quote on the topic of obstacles that I frequently share on a coaching session I do for our agents that is from Victor Kiam (the Remington razor guy) – “….there is little difference between obstacle and opportunity…”
The National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) has come under attack over the past few months as a defendant in two class-action lawsuits, Christopher Moehrl v The National Association of REALTORS® and Joshua A. Sitzer and Amy Winger v The National Association of REALTORS® filed in March and April of 2019 respectively, and, most recently, a complaint brought by the Department of Justice, United States v National Association of REALTORS® filed this month. The latter came with a pre-arranged proposed settlement with NAR. I should also mention the two class-action lawsuits have as additional defendants Realogy Holdings Corp (the own and operate several franchises, some of the local ones include Coldwell Banker-Gundaker, Better Homes & Gardens, ERA, Sotheby’s, and Century-21), HomeServices of America, Inc. (owner of Berkshire Hathway Home Services), Re/Max and Keller Williams.
While there are additional issues raised in the lawsuits and DOJ complaint, central to them are buyer’s agents’ commissions. Issues raised include:
From the DOJ complaint:
Allowing buyer brokers to misrepresent to buyers that a buyer broker’s services are free;
Enabling buyer brokers to filter MLS listings based on the level of buyer broker commissions offered and to exclude homes with lower commissions from consideration by potential home buyers;
From the lawsuits:
Sellers of residential property have been forced to pay inflated costs to sell their homes through forced payments of commissions to buyer brokers;
Home sellers have been forced to set buyer broker commissions to induce buyer brokers to show the sellers’ homes to prospective buyers;
Price competition has been restrained among brokers seeking to be retained by home buyers, and by brokers seeking to represent home sellers; and
Defendant Franchisors and their franchisees have inflated their profits by a significant margin by the increased total commissions and increased buyer broker commissions.
While we deal with the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic practicing social-distancing, shutting down events, public gatherings and the like, we are still trying to go on with our lives at the same time. A big challenge to this is the unknown; not knowing how bad things will get, how long we may have to live like this, etc. Fortunately, for those of us in Missouri, at the time I’m writing this, we have just 41 confirmed cases putting Missouri at number 40 of the 50states in terms of the number of cases. Granted, once more people are tested, our position may raise, but hopefully, due to the swift action by our leaders and citizens here, it will not rise anywhere close to the levels we are seeing in some states, including our neighbor to the east, Illinois where there are 423 cases as of this morning.
What effect is the coronavirus having on St Louis real estate?
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Panel of Experienced Voices As your host, Dennis Norman, with 45 years in the St. Louis real estate scene, I aim to share insights that blend practical experience with strategic foresight. Joining me are my business partners, John Williams and John Donati, both seasoned professionals with deep insights into these recent developments. Our collective experience in leadership within the REALTOR® organization and MLS will provide you with a rich perspective on adapting to industry changes.
So, what is going to turn the real estate industry upside down?
In December
