By Dennis Norman, on January 20th, 2010 Dennis Norman
We are long overdue for some good news on the St. Louis housing market and data from December home sales brought just that. Based upon my comparision of homes sold in December 2009 with the year prior, it appears to me the St. Louis housing market may have found it’s bottom and now be starting to level off.
There are still disturbing aspects of the data, like the fact that for the St. Louis metro area there were almost 8 percent fewer homes sold in December 2009 than in December 2008 but there is light at Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on January 15th, 2010 Dennis Norman
If you are one of the million-plus homebuyers that was fortunate enough to qualify for the Home Buyer tax credit, read on for information on how to claim your credit.
Today the Internal Revenue Service released a new form that eligible homebuyers must need to use to claim the first-time homebuyer credit this tax season, along with instructions and guidelines for other documentation that must accompany your tax return.
The new form and instructions follow major changes in November to the homebuyer credit by the Worker, Homeownership, and Business Assistance Act of 2009. The new law Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on January 11th, 2010 Dennis Norman
Depending on which estimate you believe, somewhere between one-third and one-half of the homeowners with a mortgage in the U.S. owe more on their homes than their homes are currently worth. This has lead to an unprecedented amount of short-sales and in many cases, a lender “forgiving” you of the short-fall (the amount of your loan your sale proceeds were not adequate to pay) which, in the past could have left you owing taxes on the “forgiven debt”.
For some of those underwater homeowners that are not fortunate enough to do a short sale they may Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on January 6th, 2010 Dennis Norman
Or should I say “It’s all in the headline”?
So what am I talking about? The pending home sales data that was released by the National Association of REALTORS today, of course. Actually I could be referring to any data on the housing market whether new home sales, foreclosure rates, interest rates, existing home sales or inventories of homes for sale.
There only major housing report that was released today was the Pending Home Sales Index for November by NAR. Being a report based upon data you would think the numbers speak for Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on December 28th, 2009 Dennis Norman
In a just a few days we will say goodbye to 2009; a year that has been brutal to the housing market. So as the new year comes in, what will 2010 hold in store for the housing market?
To answer this question I turned to the housing forecast just released by Fannie Mae to see what their economists were predicting. Here are the highlights from the report, showing actual numbers for the 3rd quarter of this year as well as Fannie Mae’s projection for 4th quarter of this year as well as 4th quarter of 2010:
Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on December 24th, 2009 Dennis Norman
NAR’s “seasonally-adjusted” numbers show sales up 7.4 percent for the month…”actual” numbers show a 5.2 percent decrease….Sales up 44 percent from last year, lest we not forgot last year was the worst in over 10 years…
According to the latest report from the National Association of REALTORS(R), existing home sales in November increased 7.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted-annual rate of 6.54 million units in November from a revised level of 6.09 million units in October, and are 44.1 percent higher than the 4.44 million-unit pace in November 2008. Existing home sales are now at the highest Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on December 23rd, 2009
Dennis Norman
New homes were started in November at an annual rate of 482,000 homes and I asked why in my post last week since new home construction was already outpacing sales….well, today the gap got worse..
This morning the U.S. Department of Commerce released a report showing the sale of New Homes in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 355,000, an 11.3 percent decrease from the revised October rate of 400,000 and is 9.0 percent below a year ago.
My Mantra
As has been my long-running mantra, I don’t like “seasonally Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on December 22nd, 2009 According to NAR 51 percent of recent homebuyers are first-time buyers and 39 percent of recent home sales have relied on an FHA loan
Dennis Norman
The National Association of REALTORS just released a report showing that 51 percent of the homes sold recently have been to first-time home buyers and that 39 percent of all recent buyers have turned to an FHA loan for financing for their home purchase.
I think this clearly illustrates that the first-time home buyer tax credit, coupled with record low interest rates and drastically reduced home prices, is giving buyers, at least Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on December 18th, 2009 Dennis Norman
UPDATE June 7, 1010 – Here are links to the Forms from MHDC to claim the tax credit as well as some sample forms they have provided showing how to fill them in:
Program ApplicationHome Purchase AffidavitPromissory NoteHope Program Information and InstructionsSample Forms
******
Just moments ago, the Missouri Housing Development Commission passed at $35 million economic development initiative. Part of this initiative (to the tune of $20 million worth) is aimed toward helping stimulate home sales in Missouri.
The initiative includes:
$15 million to pay the first year of property taxes for qualified homebuyers who Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on December 16th, 2009
New home construction is on the rise in November…. WHY??? They aren’t selling as fast as they are being built…didn’t we learn our lesson?
The U.S. Census Bureau and US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) issued a their report on New Residential Construction for November 2009 showing an increase in new home construction activity from October.
The report shows the following:
Building permits issued for single-family residences in November were at an annual rate of 473,000 which is 5.3 percent above the revised October rate of 449,000 and down 12.1 percent from a year ago. For the Continue Reading →
By Ted Gayer, on December 14th, 2009
Ted Gayer, co-director of Economic Studies, Brookings Institute
According to this article, the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) has scored a Senate homebuyer tax credit at $16.7 billion. How does the JCT $16.7 billion cost estimate square with my previous back-of-the-envelope calculation of the cost of the tax credit of $73.9 billion?
For my calculation, I assumed a tax credit of $15,000, available for one year. The Senate proposal scored by JCT is for an $8,000 tax credit. I also assumed the tax credit would be available for one year, whereas the Senate proposal scored by JCT Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on December 4th, 2009 Dennis Norman
Last week the Treasury Department announced the Home Affordable Foreclosure Alternatives Program (HAFA), the latest program under the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP), designed to offer alternatives to homeowners facing foreclosure.
THE HAFA PROGRAM:
The Home Affordable Foreclosure Alternatives Program provides financial incentives to loan servicers as well as borrowers who do a short-sale or a deed-in-lieu to avoid foreclosure on an eligible loan under HAMP. Both of these foreclosure alternatives help the lender out by avoiding the
Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on December 1st, 2009 Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist, NAR
Is the increase real or have the tax-credits created an “artificial” market that cannot be sustained?
Today the National Association of REALTORS(R) issued their Pending Home Sales Index Report for October showing pending sales in the U.S. rose again for the ninth consecutive month – marking the longest streak since since NAR began the pending home sale index in 2001.
As I have expressed previously, I’m somewhat cautious about getting too excited about these recent encouraging reports on the housing market as I feel we still have many challenges out there.
Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on November 25th, 2009 Dennis Norman
This morning the U.S. Department of Commerce released a report showing the sale of New Homes in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 430,000, a 6.2 percent increase from the revised September rate of 405,000 and is 5.1 percent above a year ago.
My Mantra
As has been my long-running mantra, I don’t like “seasonally adjusted” numbers and “rate” of sales. Why, for one I can’t figure out how in the world they compute the numbers. Second, I just don’t think discussing the “rate” of new home sales paints a realistic picture of Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on November 23rd, 2009 Dennis Norman
National Association of REALTORS released a report today saying US Home Sales in October increased 10.1 percent for the month and are 23.5 percent higher than a year ago; I did an analysis of the data based just on ACTUAL sales and came up with an increase for the month of 6.6 percent and an increase of less than 1 percent from a year ago…When looking at the Actual sales number for US home sales, the St Louis market is performing pretty close…(to see my complete post and analysis of the NAR report click here)
Here Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on November 19th, 2009 Dennis Norman
According to a report issued by First American CoreLogic national home prices continue to decline with their HPI (Loan Performance Home Price Index) declining by 9.8 percent in September 2009 compared with the year before. If you take the distressed sales out (foreclosures, short sales, etc) the nation decline in HIP for the same period was 6.2 percent.
St. Louis home prices did better according to the report with the HPI declining 3.85 percent in Sepetember 2009 from the year before. This is an improvement over August which was down 4.09 percent from the year before. Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on November 19th, 2009
Even with a decline in the Midwest in new home starts and completions, new home construction activity is still outpacing new home sales potentially leading to inventories increasing again.
The US Census Bureau and US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) issued a their report on New Residential Construction for October 2009 showing a decrease in new home construction activity in the Midwest from September.
The report shows the following for the Midwest Region:
Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on November 18th, 2009 Dennis Norman
Home sales in the St.Louis area through October 31st are down 4.8 percent from the same period a year ago, however this is a decrease of almost 40 percent from the month before when sales were down 7.9 percent from the same period the year before. St. Louis area median home prices for the period are down 6.5 percent from a year before however this is also an improvement from the 7.1 percent decrease for the month before. The average time it takes to sell a home in the St. Louis area is 2.2 percent less Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on November 13th, 2009 Dennis Norman
I can remember a time, not that long ago, where about the last thing people were concerned about was the value of their home going down. After all, for decades, our homes proved to be safe investments….no, we weren’t going to see their values shoot up 50 percent in one month like some hot tech stocks of the past, but nor were we going to see them drop by the same amount in a month. Nationally home values increased about 5 percent a year, year after year. That was until around the end of 2007 when Continue Reading →
By Ted Gayer, on November 11th, 2009 Publishers note: If you have been reading our blog for a while you are probably aware we have been supporters and advocates of the home-buyer tax credit as well as the extension and expansion of the credit, which happened last week. We realize however, there are people that do not support the credits for a variety of reasons. I came across the article below which was written prior to passage of the extension of the credit by Ted Gayer. I think this is a well written piece and does present the “other side of the coin”…Ted agreed to allow us Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on November 9th, 2009 Dennis Norman
The percent of American home owners with mortgages in a negative equity position fell to 21 percent in the third quarter of this year, down from 23 percent in the second quarter, as home values stabilized in the short term and more underwater homeowners lost their homes to foreclosure, according to the third quarter Zillow Real Estate Market Reports.
Year-over-year home values in the U.S. declined for the 11th consecutive quarter, falling 6.9 percent to a Zillow Home Value Index of $190,400. However, the rate of year-over-year decline shrank for the third quarter in a row, meaning Continue Reading →
By Charles Hugh Smith, on November 4th, 2009 Loose lending standards in government-backed mortgages is setting up the next wave of defaults and sharp declines in housing prices.
Charles Hugh Smith, Of Two Minds
Beneath the hype that housing has bottomed is an ugly little scenario: lending standards are still loose and the low-down payment, high-risk loans being guaranteed by government agencies are setting up the next giant wave of defaults and foreclosures.
You might have thought that the near-demise of risky-mortgage mills Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would have cooled the supply of highly leveraged Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on November 2nd, 2009 Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist, NAR
Today the National Association of REALTORS(R) issued their Pending Home Sales Index Report for September showing pending sales in the U.S. rose again for the eighth consecutive month – marking the longest streak since since NAR began the pending home sale index in 2001. The pending home sales index for the US rose 6.1 percent from August. Here in the Midwest the pending home sales index rose 8.1 percent from August marking the third month in a row the index in the Midwest increased.
As I have expressed previously, I’m somewhat cautious about Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on October 26th, 2009 Dennis Norman
Last week I did a post after reading an article on StlToday.com about the change in property values being made by St Louis area assessors from 2007 to 2009. As I pointed out in my article I assumed the values shown by the assessors including ALL types of property and not just homes, however my analysis was based only upon the sale prices of homes.
Prior to doing the post I had requested just the residential data from the assessor’s office for the area counties but had not been able to obtain that data. Subsequently I Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on October 24th, 2009 A new Web site provides Missouri voters with information about a proposed state constitutional amendment barring politicians from imposing double taxation on sales of homes and other real estate. I would encourage Missouri residents to visit www.YesToSaveHomes.com to learn more about the proposal.
Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on October 22nd, 2009 Dennis Norman
In an article this morning on StlToday.com I saw where property values, as determined by the St. Louis CountyAssessors office, declined 6.1 percent from 2007 to 2009. Hmm, I thought, that sounds pretty good actually, I think the St. Louis housing market would be doing great if that was close to reality. To see how the actual St. Louis housing market did during the same period I researched the sales prices of homes sold in the St. Louis metro area in 2007 and 2009 then computed the change in value during the period. Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on October 20th, 2009 Dennis Norman
By: Dennis Norman
Yesterday the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) reported that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s trial mortgage loan modifications under the Obama Administrations Home Affordable Modification Plan (HAMP) were up more than 40 percent in September 2009 from the previous month. According to the report, mortgage loans that are 60-plus-days delinquent increased to 1,401,000 borrowers in July, up a whopping 147 percent from July, 2008 when there were 566,000 borrowers 60 plus days delinquent.
Here are highlights from the report (all the data, unless noted otherwise is from July 31, 2009):
Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on October 15th, 2009 Dennis Norman
Last week I did a post on another blog about a report that had just been released by Trulia indicating that over 25 percent of the homes listed for sale in the U.S. had experienced a price reduction in the 5-month period from June 1 through October 1st and that the average price reduction was about 10 percent.
In an effort to see how things here in St. Louis were stacking up to the national numbers from Trulia, I wanted to assemble the same data, for the same period that Trulia did and see how we Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on October 13th, 2009 Dennis Norman
Statistics and reports are flying at us from every direction about the real estate market nowadays. Some reports say we have hit bottom, some even say the housing market has started a recovery others say worse times are ahead. Since I don’t think anyone can really tell us what the future has in store for the housing market I thought now may be a good time to look at history…at least short term history, to see where things stand at this point. Along the way we may see a trend or perhaps even feel like we Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on October 8th, 2009 Dennis Norman
By: Dennis Norman
The best available tool for sustaining the still-fragile housing market is the $8,000 homebuyer tax credit, (expires November 30) and it is essential that Congress extend the credit into 2010, the National Association of Realtors® testified at a hearing of the U.S. House Small Business Committee yesterday.
NAR Regional Vice President Joseph L. Canfora said “the credit is working,” pointing out that the 355,000 to 400,000 transactions directly attributable to the credit made a significant dent in the housing inventory and will help to stabilize home prices. Further, the credit has provided a Continue Reading →
|
Recent Articles
Helpful Real Estate Resources
|
