According to a report just released by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), titled “Housing insecurity and the COVID-19 pandemic“, there are over 2 million homeowners that have fallen behind at least three months on their mortgage payments. This represents a 250% increase from pre-Covid-19 levels and is now at a level we haven’t seen since the height of the Great Recession in 2010.
Homeowners with an FHA mortgage delinquency rates double rate for all loans:
As the chart below shows, homeowners with an FHA mortgage hit a serious mortgage delinquency rate of 10.8% during the 3rd quarter of 2020, with the rate for all mortgages was just under half that at 5.2%.
President Joe Biden on Tuesday extended the ban on home foreclosures for federally backed mortgages until June 30, 2021. This is the second extension of the ban which was originally set to expire January 31, 2021, but then previously extended by President Biden to March 31, 2021.
Meanwhile, as the chart below shows, serious delinquencies on home mortgages have been on the rise since nearly the beginning of the pandemic almost a year ago. The ban on foreclosures is certainly a welcome relief to those struggling to make their house payments. However, with such a high delinquency rate one has to wonder if it is just delaying the inevitable and that this is sort of a ticking time bomb for the real estate market? I say that because with the number of mortgage delinquencies piling up it is safe to assume that once the ban is over there will be a massive amount of foreclosures hitting the market which may very well have a negative impact on the market.
During the second quarter of 2020, 45.5% of the homeowners with a mortgage within the 63115 zip code, were underwater on their mortgage, meaning they were in a negative-equity position, according to data just released by ATTOM Data Research. As the table below shows, the north county zip codes of 63137 and 63136 were not far behind at 45.1% and 41.3%, respectively. Of the 10 St Louis-area zip codes with the highest rate of underwater homeowners, 7 were in St Louis County and 3 in the City of St Louis.
The St Louis real estate market continues to be on the upswing and recovering from the impact of COVID-19. The pandemic did slow the St Louis real estate market down for a while but it appears to be recovering quite quickly. Get all of this and more in this month’s update.
Interest rates, the “cherry on top”. In case the market rebound isn’t enough, mortgage interest rates are at near historic lows making now a great time, and an affordable time, to buy a house if you are in a position to do so.
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Maybe it’s the gorgeous weather, a more optimistic outlook after receiving stimulus payments or perhaps just being tired of waiting in limbo, but homebuyers have come out strong in St Louis during the past week! St Louis home sales are still not at the levels we would expect at this time of year but, as my table below shows, for the St Louis MSA as a whole, the most recent 7-day period is down just 16% from the same time last year. This is about half the decline I’ve seen when pulling the data as recently as a week ago.
St Charles County home sales have come back the strongest with 185 homes sold during the 7-day period from 4/14 through 4/21, just 12% less than the same period last year and the city of St Louis is next with a decline of just 14%. Franklin County is struggling the most with just about half as many home sales as last year.
As I wrote yesterday, with low-interest rates and the buying opportunities out there, now is a great time to buy for those that are able. Wow, now that I think about it, maybe that’s the reason home sales are increasing, people are listening to me LOL.
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St Louis New Residential Home Sales April 14 – 21 – (Table)
Date Source: MARIS – Copyright 2020 St Louis Real Estate News, all rights reserved
Fannie Mae issued their monthly housing forecast for April which includes, among other data, a forecast of what mortgage interest rates will be in the coming months. Last months forecast had projected that mortgage rates would continue to decline moving forward but only to a low of 3.1% before the end of 2021 while the April forecast predicted the interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage would fall to 2.9% in the 2nd quarter of 2021 and stay there through the balance of the year.
If you’re able, now’s the time to buy!
While the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, such as job loss, is going to take some would-be home buyers out of the market, for those that are still able to buy, now is a great time to buy a home. There are many factors that play in favor of buyers today, such as the fact that there are about 1/3 fewer of them (buyers in the market) now than this time last year, sellers that want to have fewer people coming through their homes and interest rates. As our chart below shows, not only are rates low now, they are projected to go much lower even.
Why not wait until next year when the rates hit their lowest?
Good question, but there are several reasons not to wait. First off, the rates shown on my chart are “projections”, or to put it another way “an educated guess”, so there is no guarantee rates will actually come down as predicted. In addition, once the stay at home orders go away and we start moving back to something closer to normal, I anticipate there will be a flood of buyers to the market which, along with lower interest rates (if that happens) will likely drive home prices up. So, for buyers that are able, they may get a better buy today, with less competition, still get a good interest rate and then if rates do fall as predicted can easily refinance to take advantage of lower rates.
The St Louis real estate market is off to a good start for 2020 however, it is getting impacted by COVID-19. This month’s market update video includes market data through the end of March but, even though about 2/3 of March was after COVID-19 began disrupting things here, the effects really cannot be seen yet. A couple of weeks ago I did a Special Report video that was specifically about the impact of coronavirus on the St Louis real estate market, but it won’t be until our May market report that we really see the full impact of it on the market.
Rates are back down after a brief stint on the rise. The mortgage market is a little volatile now given all that is going on but, so far, so good.
Yesterday, I shared information about forbearance options available to borrowers with an FHA loan that has been impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. Today, the Consumer Finance Protection Bureau released a very informative video titled “CARES Act Mortgage Forbearance: What You Need to Know” which is below. This video contains a great explanation of what forbearance is, how it works and how to request it on your mortgage.
Fannie Mae, the leading source of financing for home mortgages in the U.S. (they purchase home loans from lenders), earlier this week announced some payment deferral plans to help borrowers. Fannie Mae is authorizing it’s loan servicers to provide options to borrowers that have fallen delinquent or are having trouble making their house payments, which is likely a result of the financial impact on them of the COVID-19 pandemic.
While it’s complicated, there are several options that Fannie Mae has made available to loan servicers to offer to borrowers that are struggling. Complete details are in Fannie Mae Lender Letter (LL-2020-05) but the highlights are below:
Eligibility criteria for a Payment Deferral:
The mortgage loan must be a conventional first lien mortgage loan, and may be a fixed-rate, a step-rate, or an ARM.(the property may be vacant)
As of the date of the evaluation, the mortgage loan must be 30 or 60 days delinquent (i.e., the borrower is not past due for more than two full monthly contractual payments); and
such delinquency status must have remained unchanged for at least three consecutive months, including the month of the evaluation.
And, the loan servicer must confirm that the borrower:
has resolved the hardship,
is able to continue making the full monthly contractual payment, and
is unable to reinstate the mortgage loan or afford a repayment plan to cure the delinquency.
There are some other conditions as well but those are the primary ones. Assuming the borrower meets these requirements, there are several options available to them. There are many options the lender can offer which include:
Defer the past due payments (without interest accruing) until the mortgage loan matures, until the property is sold or the loan is refinanced or paid off.
If the hardship that caused the borrower to fall behind has been resolved however the borrowers do not have the ability to pay the delinquent payments, another option is for the lender to offer to increase future payments for a period of time to make up for the delinquent payments. If the borrower cannot afford the increased payments, that is when the payment deferral plan above kicks in. If the borrower’s hardship has not been resolved, then Fannie Mae can offer a forbearance plan.
If you are a homeowner and having problems making your payments, the best thing to do is immediately call your loan servicer to see what options are available to you.
The St Louis real estate market is off to a great start for 2020! Home sales year to date has outpaced sales from the same time a year ago and everything points to 2020 being a good year for real estate! The $64 question is, however, what effect the Coronavirus may have on the market. Only time will tell, but my thoughts are that while there will no doubt be some negative impact on the St Louis housing market as a result of Coronavirus (COVID-19) its impact will be much less than what we have seen of late in the stock market.
I don’t believe we will see any sort of significant decline in home prices but we will likely see a “pause” in sales as some buyers decide to wait and see how things go. No doubt some of the potential buyers that will be affected are those whose jobs or income are impacted as a result of Coronavirus, such as people in the travel, hospitality, sports, and entertainment industries.
Rates jumped up last week but are still attractive. The week before last, St Louis mortgage interest rates hit an all-time low as buyers were locking in interest rates on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage as low as 2.95%! This past week, however, that changed and the rates shot up by as much as 1% and not as a result of the stock market or coronavirus as much as from just too much demand. Apparently the investors that purchase the loans from lenders around the country got overwhelmed as the volume set record highs so they raised rates. Even with the increase, rates are still historically good.
The typical median-priced existing home sold for $233,000 in February 2019 and a year later, as the chart below shows, in February 2020 the typical median-priced home sold for $235,000, an increase of just under 1%. Here’s the beauty though, thanks to interest rates dropping from an average of 4.41% a year ago to 3.29% today, even with the slight increase in price, the typical St Charles County home costs less today than a year ago! Not just by a little either as the payment on the median price a year ago (no money down) would have been $1,178.18 at the current rates at the time, the payment today, at the higher price but lower rates would be just $1,019.15, a savings of $159.03/month or 13.5%! Oh, and just to show the “compound effect” of this, over the life of the loan, you will save $55,249 in interest.
Mortgage interest rates hit a record low this week with an average interest rate of 3.29% on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage according to the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey. As the chart below shows, interest rates came close to this level at the end of 2012 but then quickly shot up to over 4.5% shortly after.
Now is the time to buy or at least refinance!
Anyone that has been thinking of buying a home should, if able, shift into high geat and find one now to take advantage of the low rates and the increased buying power that comes with it. The first step would be to get yourself pre-approved and, for that, I would recommend Michael McCarthy with Flat Branch Home Loans…he’s great and our firm does a lot of business with him. You can find his info at STLBestLender.com. If you a homeowner with a mortgage and no plans to move, I would also suggest you get in touch with Mike to see how much money you can save by refinancing your existing mortgage at a lower rate.
For quite a while now we have enjoyed the positive effects on the real estate market from low mortgage rates but it looks like it’s going to get even better! Yesterday’s announcement by the Fed of the emergency step of lowering the benchmark U.S. interest rate by one-half of one percent, in an effort to offset the negative effect tot eh financial markets from the coronavirus will likely lead to even lower mortgage interest rates.
What’s the connection between the federal funds rate and mortgage interest rates? This is something often asked not only by homebuyers but is even within the real estate community as since the Federal Reserve doesn’t “set” mortgage rates, the connection is not always clear. I’m not an expert in this area by no means, but I have a decent understanding of it and will share it from the perspective of the most popular home mortgage, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage. First, we have to understand where the money for those mortgages comes from. It comes from investors, investors that compare an investment in 30-year mortgages to other comparable investments. One of those comparable investments would be the 30-year treasury.
As you may have noticed, I’ve been pretty optimistic about the outlook for the real estate market this year however, that is not always the case as I call it like I see it. The reason for my optimism is based upon what a true data geek like myself would base it upon, data! So, what’s the data that has me believing 2020 will be a good year for the housing market in St Louis and beyond? Several things:
As I have been reporting here for the past couple of years now, mortgage delinquency and foreclosure rates have continued to decline which show the strength of the economy as a whole as well as the housing industry.
As the US Economic Indicators charts below show, since peaking around 2010, the unemployment rate, 30-year mortgage rate and mortgage delinquency rates have all steadily declines to either record lows or at least the lowest rate in recent history.
As the St Louis unemployment, home prices and rent chart below shows, unemployment in St Louis has fallen to the lowest level in decades and the relationship between home prices and rents show home prices lagging behind rents indicating that we’ll likely see continued, good housing appreciation rates.
As the 30-year fixed rate mortgage chart below shows, mortgage rates are at near record low rates giving buyers much more buying power. In my market update video I shared here a day or two ago I illustrate just how much more buying power this translates into.
As I reported last week, St Louis home sales last year managed to top the prior year slightly, in spite of the low-inventory market we have been stuck in. This shows the demand that is out there.
As I reported earlier this week, the home sales trend for 2020 in St Louis is in positive territory has well.
The St Louis real estate market is off to a good start for 2020! The home sales trends going into this year are encouraging and, coupled with the strong economy we are in, has me very confident that 2020 is going to be a great year for the St Louis real estate market!MORE buying power!
In addition, long term mortgage interest rates just dropped again giving buyers more buying power! See the example in my video of just how much less a home will cost you today payment-wise than 14 months ago, even after appreciation has pushed prices up.
Find out more, as well as get information on some of St Louis’s best resources for home buyers and sellers in our just-released market update video.
The St Louis home sales trend jumped in December when sales for the prior 12-months broke through the 27,000 mark to 27,149. The trend continued into January of this year, as there were 27,159 homes sold in the 12-month period ended January 31, 2020. This is a good start for 2020 and is a great leading indicator of how the market is going to do this year. Add lower mortgage interest rates to this (the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage dropped to 3.45% last week) and the strongest economy in decades and we have a recipe for a great housing market!
During the fourth quarter of 2019, 10.2% of the homeowners in St Louis with a mortgage, were underwater on their mortgage, meaning they were in a negative-equity position, according to data just released by ATTOM Data Research. As the table below shows, this is the lowest level of St Louis homeowners that are seriously underwater since 2013 when this data was first tracked. This continues the trend that began in the price quarter with the then lowest rate at 10.5%.
The St Louis real estate market had a strong finish in 2019! One of the many great things for the St Louis housing market about a strong finish in 2019 is that 2020 begins strongly as well! January will be a key month in terms of whether the trend will continue or whether December’s uptick was an isolated event.
Another encouraging thing about the real estate market is that long term mortgage interest rates remain low! See in the video just how powerful this is! How a house today will actually cost you less than a little over a year ago, even after factoring in home price appreciation!
Find out more, as well as get information on some of St Louis’s best resources for home buyers and sellers in our just-released market update video.
Foreclosure rates and mortgage delinquency rates have steadily declined over the past couple of years as the housing market, as well as the overall economy, have both continued to improve and thrive. Nonetheless, foreclosures still take place and during 2019 the St Louis MSA had the 8th highest foreclosure rate of the 20 largest MSAs, according to the latest data released by Attom Data Solutions.
As the table below shows, during 2019, in the St Louis MSA there was 1 foreclosure action for every 232 housing units. Philadelphia, PA, had the highest foreclosure rate of the 20-largest MSAs with one foreclosure action for every 133 housing units and San Francisco had the lowest with one foreclosure action for every 631 housing units.
The good news just keeps coming for the residential real estate industry! The most recent is from a report just released by CoreLogic showing the mortgage delinquency rate in the U.S. was at 3.8%, the lowest rate in at least 20 years! In addition, not one state in the country had an increase in overall delinquency rates in September.
Foreclosure Inventory Reaches Low as well…
The foreclosure inventory rate for September was 0.4%, another 20+ year low!
Between low, low-interest rates and the seasonally low home prices, there is no better time to buy a home! Just like every year, home prices are declining and will continue to decline over the next few weeks until they hit their “winter bottom” and then start the climb back to spring prices. All the while, mortgage interest rates remain low, giving you more buying power than a year ago, even at the higher home prices!
Find out more, as well as get information on some of St Louis’s best resources for home buyers and sellers in our just-released market update video.
In August, the overall mortgage delinquency rate (30 or more days past due) was 3.7% for the U.S. which is a 0.2 percentage point decline from a year ago and is the lowest overall delinquency rate in 14-years, according to date just released by CoreLogic. The delinquency rate for August of 3.7% marks the lowest delinquency rate during the month of August in 20 years. The serious delinquency rate (120+ days late) decline of 1.2% a year ago to just 1.0% in August 2019, nearly a record low. The Foreclosure Rate fell in August 2019 to 0.4% from 0.5% a year ago.
Missouri mortgage delinquency rates are low as well…
During August 2019, the overall mortgage delinquency rate for Missouri was exactly the same as the national rate, 3.7%. The serious delinquency rate in Missouri was 1.1%, just slightly above the national rate, and the foreclosure rate was 0.2%, half of the national rate.
As of the end of the third quarter of this year, 18.2% of the homeowners in St Louis were “equity-rich”, meaning their mortgage total is less than 50% of their homes’ current value, according to the latest data available from ATTOM Data Research. As the table below shows, this is the highest rate of equity-rich homeowners in St Louis since ATTOM began tracking this data in 2013.
Thanks to a strong economy and low-interest rates, the actual cost of a home today in St Louis is lower than it was a year ago, in spite of the fact that the median price of homes sold in St Louis has increased by 5.64% in the past year. Most people buying a typical home in St Louis finance nearly all of the purchase price, therefore, the cost of financing plays a significant role in the true cost of a home. Buyers decide what they can afford (as do lenders) based upon the house payment, not the price of the home.
The cost of a home today in St Louis versus a year ago…
As our STL Market Chart below shows, the median price of a home sold in the St Louis 5-County core market in October of this year was $200,000, 5.3% higher than last October when the median price of homes sold was $189,900. However, as our mortgage interest rate chart below shows, the rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is currently 3.78%, over a full percentage point less than October 2018 when the rate was 4.83%.
If we do a little math and use our mortgage payment calculator, we find that if someone bought a median-priced home in St Louis in October of 2018 at $189,900 and financed 100% of the purchase at the current rate at the time (4.83%), their payment would have been $1,027 per month. If a person were to buy a median-priced home in St Louis today at $200,000 and finance 100% of the purchase at the current rate of 3.78%, their payment would be $958. So, even though the price of the home increased over 5%, the payment on the home (at current prices) actually dropped by 7.2% showing just how much impact interest rates have on the cost of a home.
What are buyers waiting for?
We are entering the “slow season” for real estate, winter, a time when, year after year, home prices typically decrease until hitting a low around January and then start to increase as the weather warms. Therefore, we are in the period when home prices will be the lowest they will be for the year, interest rates are near the lowest they have been, so, if I were considering buying a home, I would jump into action as I just don’t see how it’s going to get better than this anytime soon.
You are probably saying I’m nuts to be saying that a home in St Louis costs less today than it did 13 years ago, back in 2006, but, note I said the “real cost” of a home. Since nearly all people buying a typical home in St Louis are going to do so with a mortgage, I think to really determine the cost of a home, and certainly, it’s affordability, we have to look deeper than just the price. Therefore, as the table below shows, I analyzed the cost of a home in St Louis during two periods of time, the most recent 5-year period and the 5-year period leading up to and including 2006 (the last year of the boom before the bust). In determining the real cost, I looked at the median price of homes sold but then also the mortgage interest rate at the time and the resulting payment.
As the table illustrates, the current cost of a median-priced home in St Louis, from a mortgage payment perspective, dropped 5.5% from a year ago thanks to lower mortgage interest rates which more than offset the increase in home prices. The impact of interest rates on the true cost of a home is further illustrated by looking that the change in the mortgage payment for a median-priced home in St Louis from 2014 to today which was an increase of 17.8% over the period. However, the median price of homes sold during the same period increased by 23.4%, over 30% more than the payment increased!
The real cost of a St Louis home today is even less than in 2006
Now, to go one step further, if you look at the second table below, which is for the period of July 2001 through July 2006, you will see that, while the median price of homes in St Louis was lower, mortgage interest rates were much higher. In fact, the median mortgage interest rate from 2001 through 2006 was 6.245% while it was just 4.0% from 2014 through 2019. This resulted in the mortgage payment of $1,084.26 on a median-priced home in St Louis in 2006, $76.56 per month more (7.5%) than today’s mortgage payment on a median-priced home in St Louis.
Yesterday afternoon, the Federal Reserve released a statement that was quite a vote of confidence for how the economy is doing. The Fed Reserve’s statement included “…the labor market remains strong and that economic activity has been rising at a moderate rate. Job gains have been solid, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low.” and went on to say “Market-based measures of inflationcompensation remain low;”.
As a result of the positive economic conditions, the Federal Open Market Committee announced it would lower the target range for the federal funds rate to 2 to 2-1/4 percent. The committee went on to give a very positive outlook on the future economy as well saying that “sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee’s symmetric 2 percent objective are the most likely outcomes…”.
Will the move by the Fed Reserve cause lower mortgage interest rates?
It’s hard to say if this announcement will prompt immediate lower interest rates as the mortgage market takes a little longer view of things. However, while we don’t know if mortgage rates will decline or, if so by how much, I think, absent some major shift or change in the economy, it is safe to say that mortgage rates are not going up at this time or in the very near future.
The median rent for counties in the St Louis area in 2010 varied from a low of $620 in Franklin County to a high of $819 in St Charles County. By 2017 rents had increased to $736 and $993 respectively in those counties, according to the latest data available from the U.S. Census Bureau. As the table shows below, the increase in rents from 2010 to 2017 in St Louis area counties varied from 18.3% to 23.0% with a median increase of 18.75%.
For homeowners, the median cost of a mortgage in 2010 ranged from a low of $1,168 in Franklin County to a high of $1,519 in St Charles County. In 2017 those median mortgage payments had changed little with the median mortgage in Franklin County coming in at $1,197 and for St Charles County, $1,521. As the table below shows, the increase in mortgage payments during this period ranged from a decrease of 1.3% to an increase of 3.1% with the median being a 1.2% increase.
Thanks to a strong economy and lower interest rates, homeowners come out on top!
So while rents increased a median of 18.75% from 2010 to 2017, mortgage payments increased just 1.2%, making the increase in median rent 15.6 times higher than the increase in mortgages during the period. Homeowners also benefited through increased equity with a median increase of 26.75% in the prices of homes sold from 2010 to 2017.
St Louis Area Median Rent and Mortgage Costs 2010-2017
The strong St Louis housing market, as well as the strong economy, continues to help improve mortgage delinquency rates and foreclosure rates in St Louis. The rate of foreclosure in St Louis in April was 1 foreclosure filing for every 2,167 housing units, a decline of 17.4% from the month before when the rate was 1 in every 1,865 housing units, according to the latest data from ATTOM Data Solutions. The April St Louis foreclosure rate was down 17.9% from the year before.
As the table below shows, over half the counties in the St Louis MSA saw an increase in foreclosure activity in April from the month before, all in the double-digits, however, with the exception of the city of St Louis, all of the larger counties saw a decline from the month before.
During the first quarter of 2019, 14.5% of the homeowners in St Louis with a mortgage, were underwater on their mortgage, meaning they were in a negative-equity position, according to data just released by ATTOM Data Research. As the table below shows, this slight increase follows a decline in the rate for the two prior quarters. The St Louis negative-equity rate is about one and a half times that for the U.S. as a whole.
After mortgage interest rates on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage nearly hit 5 percent back in November, they have steadily declined and this past week fell to an average of 4.37% according to the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Last weeks 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate of 4.37% was the lowest average rate report by the survey since Feb 8, 2018, when the average rates were 4.32%.
The outlook for mortgage interest rates looks promising as well with the most recent Fannie Mae Housing Forecast predicting the 30-year fixed rate will stay at 4.5% through the end of 2020.
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