By Dennis Norman, on May 10th, 2010 Dennis Norman
Consistent with the report on mortgage delinquencies from LPS that I wrote about last week, today TransUnion released it’s report on mortgage delinquencies showing they fell 1.74 percent in the first quarter of this year, which is the first quarterly decline since 2006. This is good news, however, not to rain on the parade, but we do need to remember that the 4th quarter of 2009 had a record-setting mortgage delinquency rate so to have the rate for the following quarter drop simply means, if you want to do the glass half-empty thing, this quarter didn’t Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on April 23rd, 2010 Dennis Norman
The U.S. Department of Commerce released a report showing the sale of New Homes in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 411,000, a 26.9 percent increase from the revised February rate of 324,000 and is 23.8 percent above a year ago. The inventory of new homes (seasonally adjusted) at the end of March is 6.7 months a huge decline from February’s 9.2 month supply.
My Mantra
As has been my long-running mantra, I don’t like “seasonally adjusted” numbers and “rate” of sales (nor does Standard & Poors, publisher of the Case/Shiller Index, now Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on April 19th, 2010 Dennis Norman
Housing is stabilizing but excess inventory and shadow supply are hindering recovery according to the April 2010 Economic Outlook released today by Fannie Mae’s Economics & Mortgage Market Analysis Group.
The report projects that new home sales (which are at record lows) will be slow to recover until inventory of existing homes and the foreclosure overhang are worked off. The comments about existing home sales were more optimistic saying key indicators for existing home sales, including pending home sales and purchase applications, are showing good signs of a pickup.
Jobs, a driving force for housing, are Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on April 16th, 2010
The U.S. Census Bureau and US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) issued a their report on New Residential Construction for March 2010 showing an increase in building permits and a decrease in new home starts from February.
The report shows the following:
Building permits issued for single-family residences in March were at an annual rate of 543,000 which is 5.6 percent above the revised February rate of 514,000 and an increase of 50.8 percent from a year ago when the rate was 360,000. Housing starts for single-family residences in March were at an annual rate of 531,000 Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on April 6th, 2010 Dennis Norman
At the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on March 16th it was suggested that “economic activity expanded at a moderate pace in early 2010″. Unfortunately, when it came to the housing market, the news was not as good and it was noted that “housing activity remained flat and the nonresidential construction section weakened further.” The staff went on to say that activity in the housing sector appears to “have flattened out in recent months” and that “sales of both new and existing homes have turned down, while starts of single-family homes were about unchanged despite the substantial Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on March 25th, 2010 Dennis Norman
The U.S. Department of Commerce released a report showing the sale of New Homes in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 308,000, a 2.2 percent decrease from the revised January rate of 315,000 and is 13.0 percent below a year ago. The inventory of new homes (seasonally adjsuted) at the end of February is 9.2 months a slight increase from January’s inventory of 9.1 months.
My Mantra
As has been my long-running mantra, I don’t like “seasonally adjusted” numbers and “rate” of sales. Why, for one I can’t figure out how in the Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on March 16th, 2010
The U.S. Census Bureau and US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) issued a their report on New Residential Construction for February 2010 showing a decrease in new home construction activity from February, but siginificant increases from a year ago..
The report shows the following:
Building permits issued for single-family residences in February were at an annual rate of 503,000 which is 0.2 percent below the revised January rate of 504,000 and an increase of 32.0 percent from a year ago when the rate was 381,000. Dragging down the overall permit numbers for housing are multi-family dwellings with Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on March 5th, 2010
Dennis Norman
St. Louis Mortgage Delinquencies and St. Louis Foreclosure Rate hit Record Highs
A report released by First American CoreLogic showed the St. Louis metro area to have a foreclosure rate in January of 1.42 percent up slightly from December’s rate of 1.36 percent and an increase of 46.39 percent from the year prior when the rate was 0.97 percent.
The national foreclosure rate for January remains over twice the rate of St. Louis at 3.19 percent and was an increase of 60.3 percent from a year ago when the national Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on February 1st, 2010 Dennis Norman
The U.S. Department of Commerce released a report showing the sale of New Homes in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 342,000, a 7.6 percent decrease from the revised November rate of 370,000 and is 8.6 percent below a year ago.
My Mantra
As has been my long-running mantra, I don’t like “seasonally adjusted” numbers and “rate” of sales. Why, for one I can’t figure out how in the world they compute the numbers. Second, I just don’t think discussing the “rate” of new home sales paints a realistic picture of the market. I Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on December 28th, 2009 Dennis Norman
In a just a few days we will say goodbye to 2009; a year that has been brutal to the housing market. So as the new year comes in, what will 2010 hold in store for the housing market?
To answer this question I turned to the housing forecast just released by Fannie Mae to see what their economists were predicting. Here are the highlights from the report, showing actual numbers for the 3rd quarter of this year as well as Fannie Mae’s projection for 4th quarter of this year as well as 4th quarter of 2010:
Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on December 23rd, 2009
Dennis Norman
New homes were started in November at an annual rate of 482,000 homes and I asked why in my post last week since new home construction was already outpacing sales….well, today the gap got worse..
This morning the U.S. Department of Commerce released a report showing the sale of New Homes in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 355,000, an 11.3 percent decrease from the revised October rate of 400,000 and is 9.0 percent below a year ago.
My Mantra
As has been my long-running mantra, I don’t like “seasonally Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on December 16th, 2009
New home construction is on the rise in November…. WHY??? They aren’t selling as fast as they are being built…didn’t we learn our lesson?
The U.S. Census Bureau and US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) issued a their report on New Residential Construction for November 2009 showing an increase in new home construction activity from October.
The report shows the following:
Building permits issued for single-family residences in November were at an annual rate of 473,000 which is 5.3 percent above the revised October rate of 449,000 and down 12.1 percent from a year ago. For the Continue Reading →
By Ted Gayer, on December 14th, 2009
Ted Gayer, co-director of Economic Studies, Brookings Institute
According to this article, the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) has scored a Senate homebuyer tax credit at $16.7 billion. How does the JCT $16.7 billion cost estimate square with my previous back-of-the-envelope calculation of the cost of the tax credit of $73.9 billion?
For my calculation, I assumed a tax credit of $15,000, available for one year. The Senate proposal scored by JCT is for an $8,000 tax credit. I also assumed the tax credit would be available for one year, whereas the Senate proposal scored by JCT Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on December 10th, 2009 Dennis Norman
Not surprisingly, builders in St. Louis (those that have managed to survive thus far) are not racing out to build homes. According to the latest data reported by the Home Builders Association of St. Louis, there were 228 permits issued in October for new homes in the St. Louis metro area (St. Louis City and the Counties of St. Louis, Jefferson, St. Charles, Franklin, Lincoln and Warren) down almost 19 percent from September when there were 281 permits issued.
Year-to-date, through October 31, 2009, there have been 2,321 permits issued for new homes in the Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on November 25th, 2009 Dennis Norman
This morning the U.S. Department of Commerce released a report showing the sale of New Homes in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 430,000, a 6.2 percent increase from the revised September rate of 405,000 and is 5.1 percent above a year ago.
My Mantra
As has been my long-running mantra, I don’t like “seasonally adjusted” numbers and “rate” of sales. Why, for one I can’t figure out how in the world they compute the numbers. Second, I just don’t think discussing the “rate” of new home sales paints a realistic picture of Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on November 19th, 2009
Even with a decline in the Midwest in new home starts and completions, new home construction activity is still outpacing new home sales potentially leading to inventories increasing again.
The US Census Bureau and US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) issued a their report on New Residential Construction for October 2009 showing a decrease in new home construction activity in the Midwest from September.
The report shows the following for the Midwest Region:
Continue Reading →
By Ted Gayer, on November 11th, 2009 Publishers note: If you have been reading our blog for a while you are probably aware we have been supporters and advocates of the home-buyer tax credit as well as the extension and expansion of the credit, which happened last week. We realize however, there are people that do not support the credits for a variety of reasons. I came across the article below which was written prior to passage of the extension of the credit by Ted Gayer. I think this is a well written piece and does present the “other side of the coin”…Ted agreed to allow us Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on October 29th, 2009 Gerry Loesch, PE
In part one and part two of this series I gave you some background on Gerry Loesch as well as his informative E-View TM. Now we’ll pick up where we left off.
Gerry graduated from the University of Missouri at Rolla with a Bachelors and Master degree in Civil Engineering. He has been performing home inspections and engineering consultations for 32 years and during that period has inspected almost 15,000 homes.
Now we’ll continue with the E-View TM:
Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on September 25th, 2009 Dennis Norman
By: Dennis Norman
This morning the U.S. Department of Commerce released a report showing the sale of New Homes here in the Midwest region in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 49,000 units, a 5.8 percent decrease from July’s revised annual rate of 52,000 units (originally reported as 61,000 in July) and is down 31.9 percent from a year ago.
The U.S. as a whole saw a slight 0.7 percent increase in new home sales in August over the month before and is down 3.4 percent from a year ago.
The report Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on September 22nd, 2009 Dennis Norman
By: Dennis Norman
Today the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) reported that U.S. home prices rose 0.3 percent on a seasonally-adjusted basis from June to July and are down 4.2 percent for the past year. Missouri is included by the FHFA in the West North Central division which was right on target with the US with an increase of 0.3 percent from June to July. Our region was only down 1.5 percent from last year according the report.
Many of the reports I’ve seen in the press on this are saying this is a sign of the Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on September 17th, 2009
By: Dennis Norman
This morning the US Census Bureau and US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) issued their report on New Residential Construction for August 2009 showing a slight decrease in new home construction activity from July in the US, but an increase in new home construction activity here in the Midwest.
The report shows the following for the Midwest Region:
Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on August 26th, 2009 Dennis Norman
This morning the U.S. Department of Commerce released a report showing the sale of New Homes here in the Midwest region in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 61,000 units, a 7.6 percent decrease from Junes annual rate of 66,000 units. The U.S. as a whole saw a 9.6 percent increase in new home sales in July over the month before with the Midwest beign the only region not to show an increase for the month.
New home sales in the Midwest for July 2009 lag 4.7 percent behind July 2008 new Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on August 18th, 2009
This morning the US Census Bureau and US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) issued a their report on New Residential Construction for July 2009 showing a slight increase in new home construction activity from June in the U.S.
For the Midwest region of the U.S. the report showed the following:
Building permits issued for single-family residences in July were at an annual rate of 77,000 which is a 5.5% increase over June, but still 18.9% below July 2008. Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on July 27th, 2009 Dennis Norman
This morning the U.S. Department of Commerce released a report showing the sale of New Homes in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 384,000, an 11% increase across the US from May.
However, here in the Midwest the numbers were significantly better showing a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 73,000 new homes sales in June, a 43.1% increase over Mays rate of 51,000 homes. In addition, the Midwest was the only of region of the four in the U.S. that showed an increase in sales from the year prior. In the Midwest, June’s Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on July 21st, 2009 Dennis Norman
By: Dennis Norman
According to the website for the Economic Development Center for St. Charles County, the county was established October 1, 1812. St. Charles County encompasses 561-square-miles of diverse landscape spreading out westward from the confluence of the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers.
According to the Census Bureau, in 1970 the population of St. Charles county was 92,954. By 2008 the population had grown to 349,307, an increase of over 275% in that 38 year period. During the same period St. Louis County had a modest increase in population of just over 4% growing from 951,671 Continue Reading →
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