Fannie Mae has declared that housing is finally providing a tailwind to economic growth. The company’s December Economic and Strategic Report says that the market “has turned the corner and a sustained recovery is under way.” Looking into 2013, economists predict mortgage originations will increase by 15% while refinance volume is expected to fall 26%. Continue Reading →
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Shadow Inventory (properties with seriously delinquent mortgages, are in foreclosure or owned by lenders (REO) but not currently listed on the MLS) are a leading indicator of future foreclosure rates so it is good to see that the shadow inventory in the U.S. in October fell to 2.3 million units, a decline of 12.3 percent from a year ago, according to a report from CoreLogic. Continue Reading → I don’t know that “hot” comes to mind when I think about any St Louis real estate market today, however, relative to the rest of the market, I think I can identify some St. Louis real estate markets that I feel are poised to perform better in 2013 than other St Louis markets. Below are my charts showing some key market data for the top markets. Included in my data are 4 pieces of information that I think are key to determining the health of a local real estate market: Home prices – I show what prices have done over Continue Reading → A panel of 105 professional economic forecasters from all around the country expect home prices to increase 3.1 percent in 2013, according to the December 2012 Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey. Forecasters are more optimistic about home prices than they were just three months earlier when they predicted 2013 home prices would only increase by 2.4 percent. Continue Reading → “Every single thing about housing is flashing green,” stated James Dimon, chief executive of J.P. Morgan Chase, in an interview with CNBC last month. “Household formation is rising, inventory is falling, and affordability is near a record high.” This should mean many potential homebuyers will be assessing their finances in 2013 to get ready to buy a home. Checking your credit score is at the top of the list, and in turn credit myths and credit misconceptions are plentiful. Continue Reading → Lately we have seen several reports on the housing market that show the housing market is improving and may even be headed toward a recovery however some experts, including Cliff Rossi, Tyser Teaching Fellow and executive-in-residence for the University of Maryland’s Robert H. Smith School of Business, say it may be premature to call this a “real recovery.” Rossi is not entirely negative on the housing market and does admit that home prices are stabilizing and inventories are declining, however he has concerns as a result of the “fiscal cliff”, regulatory reform and tightness of credit, to name a few. Continue Reading → The National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) announced this morning that U.S. existing home sales increased in November 5.9 percent from the month before and 14.5 percent from the year before. The NAR report indicated the median home price in the U.S. in November was $180,600, an increase of 10.1 percent from a year ago. The St. Louis Real Estate market (the 5-county core St Louis Real Estate area (City of St Louis and the Counties of St Louis, St Charles, Jefferson and Franklin), as my chart below shows, saw home prices rise slightly in November from October to a median price of $122,000 which is an increase of 7.5 percent from a year ago. St Louis home sales in November on the other hand declined slightly from the month before to 2,523 homes but was up 19.6 percent from a year ago Continue Reading → Freddie Mac says about 30% of borrowers this year have opted for shorter-term home loans when they refinance, with most picking a 15-year mortgage. Shorter-term loans are particularly attractive to people “who have been homeowners for a number of years…or who want the security of knowing they will own their home free and clear when they retire,” Continue Reading → In a vote of confidence for an improving real estate market, seventy-one percent of homebuyers surveyed by Redfin said they are expecting house prices to increase during the coming year in their neighborhood. Additionally, the survey showed that over half (59 percent) of homebuyers are concerned about the lack of inventory of homes for sale. Here in St. Louis, as the table below shows, we have over 25 zip codes that have a 3 month, or less, supply of homes for sale which is making it more of a challenge for home buyers to find a home they like and supports rising home prices so, if you are one of those home buyers waiting for the “right time to buy”, I wouldn’t wait any longer if I were you. Continue Reading → After the problems we have seen over the past few years in the real estate, mortgage and banking industries, it is not surprising we have seen significant changes in the loan process making it more challenging for a home-buyer to obtain a mortgage. Some of the changes borrowers see when they attempt to obtain a mortgage to buy or refinance a home include: Continue Reading → I continue to see encouraging news about the housing market and today was no exception. The Freddie Mac housing market outlook for December was released and included a very encouraging outlook for the real estate market in 2013 by its chief economist, Frank Nothaft. Not that I’m on the same level as Northaft, but I will be coming out later this month with a short market recap video for 2012 as well as an outlook for 2013, both specifically for the St Louis real estate market. In the meantime, below are the highlights from Mr Nothaft’s projections for the U.S. Continue Reading → The St. Louis Real Estate Market continues to show some strength and appears to generally be headed toward recovery, albeit a long slow one. To get the latest St. Louis Real Estate Stats and the latest, best and most comprehensive St Louis Real Estate Data, check out our 5-minute video update below for October for the St Louis real estate market. The update includes charts with up to the date data on the St Louis housing market including St Louis home prices, average time to sell a home in the St Louis area as well as other data and charts to show where the St Louis real estate market is and where it is headed. (Check out all our market update videos on our YouTube Channel – click here. Continue Reading → The city of St. Louis has experienced a decline in the number of residents since hitting it’s peak population back around 1950. The most recent disappointment came in the 2010 census results showing, in spite of optimism on the part of the city for better numbers, the population of the city of St Louis had declined by nearly another 1o percent during the decade, falling from 348,189 people in 2000 to 319,294 in 2010. During that same decade there were efforts to revitalize the city and bring new life to it as developers built new and fun living spaces by Continue Reading → The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) released their “Improving Housing Markets Index” for December and I was happy to see St. Louis as a new addition to the list this month! St. Louis was one of 83 new metro areas added to the improving housing markets list from the prior month bringing the total to 201 metro areas as of this month (7 metros were dropped from the month before.) Continue Reading → When are building permits needed? That is the $64,000 question. First it may be good to discuss the reason for building permits. Building codes list their intent as “ to insure public safety, health and welfare insofar as they are affected by building construction,…..” The major reason for permits is to therefore, provide safe and sanitary buildings. We have all seen where “Tommy Homeowner” thinks he can do anything and in turn creates problems for himself and any future home owner that may occupy the premises. The building permit process allows the local authority to review what work is planned, check the work is in progress before all the changes are completed to be sure that safe, sanitary and proper procedures are performed in the building/remodeling process. The second reason, albeit less important, is that it allows the governing authority to adjust you property values to be current with the value including any improvements. Continue Reading → Today, during a presentation addressing the impact of President Obama’s re-election on the housing market by leaders of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), David Crowe, PhD., Chief Economist of NAHB, said there is a “fragile” recovery occurring in the housing market and that it could be “affected both directions by the recent election results”. Crowe went on to say that (with regard to the new home market) there has been “no consistent national trend for some time” as the recovery has been from “relatively small and disparate” locations for about a year now and the reason the national numbers are now reflecting this activity is due to the number of these improving small markets increasing significantly. Continue Reading → “The American Dream” is a phrase we often apply to home ownership although the historian that made this expression popular, James Truslow Adams, defined it differently in his 1931 book Epic of America. According to Wikipedia, in his book Adams defined “The American Dream” as a better and richer life for every man through social order and not material possessions. Regardless of it’s original definition, home ownership became a part of the American dream in the 20th century and, in spite of the fact that we are on the tail-end of about a five year housing slump, the “American Dream” appears to be hanging on as, according to 2011 Census Data, 66.1 percent of Americans own a home and, while this is no doubt a fairly significant decline from the peak of home ownership around the middle part of the decade, it is down only slightly from 2000 when 66.2 percent owned a home. Continue Reading → The Federal Housing Administration (FHA) has lowered mortgage insurance premiums on Streamline Refinance transactions. It will now be it easier for borrowers to take advantage of record low interest rates and save money each month. Under this program, up-front mortgage insurance premiums will be reduced to 0.01 percent of the total loan amount for borrowers with FHA loans made before June 1, 2009. Continue Reading → Jefferson City, Mo. – Attorney General Chris Koster today announced that the state of Missouri and Lorraine Brown, former President of DocX, LLC, have reached a plea agreement. Under the agreement, Ms. Brown will plead guilty to one felony count of forgery, one felony count of perjury, and one misdemeanor count of making a false declaration. Continue Reading → This morning, the Commerce Department released its new home construction report showing that, on a national basis, all aspects of new home construction, permits, starts and completions, are up double digits in October 2012 from the year before. The Home Builders Association’s new home report shows similar results in St. Louis as well with permits in St. Louis county up almost 24 percent in October from a year before, a 44 percent increase in St. Charles County and modest decreases in Jefferson County and Franklin County. Continue Reading → Determine your “mortgage goals.” What are your expectations? If everything falls into place, what mortgage payment “range” you would be comfortable with? Review your credit history and sources of income. How much money are you willing to commit to buying a home; do you have money set aside for a down payment? Will you get a gift from a family member? Continue Reading → Annually, the National Association of REALTORS (NAR) conducts a survey of people that bought and/or sold a home in the past year to learn about their shopping habits, what motivated them to do what they did, etc. The NAR “Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers” for 2012 was just released and shows, among other things, that 90 percent of home buyers used the internet in finding the home they bought and, of those, about half used a local MLS site and/or agent/company site Continue Reading → During the third quarter of 2012, 3.71 percent of St Louis homeowners with a mortgage were 60+ days delinquent on their mortgage, a slight decline from the prior quarter when the rate was 3.88 percent and a decline of over 10 percent from a year ago when the St Louis mortgage delinquency rate was 4.13 percent, according to TransUnion. This marks the third consecutive quarter the St Louis mortgage delinquency rate has declined. Continue Reading → Charlie Cook, of the Cook Report, a well-known and respected political commentator, cautioned REALTORS at their annual national convention to be prepared for changes to the mortgage interest deduction. According to an article in REALTOR magazine, Cook said he did not expect the mortgage interest deduction (MID) to specifically come under attack but that, as Congress looks at cuts to address the deficit, the MID “unlikely to escape unscathed. Cook went on to say that he felt the change would most likely be in the form of a cap, whether it be a dollar amount or a percent allowed for itemized deductions, but one way or another, it was going to change Continue Reading → Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors (NAR), while speaking at the NAR convention in Orlando gave a pretty optimistic outlook for the housing market. Yun said he expects to see home prices rise cumulatively 15 percent over the next three years, home sales increase over 20 percent during the same period and new home sales to increase over 90 percent from 2011 to the beginning of 2014. Yun did add a caveat to his optimism saying these things assumed there would be no further limitations on the availability of mortgage credit or a “fiscal cliff”. At this point I don’t know that I would be betting against a fiscal cliff, so I guess we will just have to wait and see. Continue Reading → As the St Louis real estate market continues to show signs of improvement in many areas, as I often talk about, real estate is very local, so markets within a metro area can behave quite different. Aware of this, many home buyers, particularly home buyers relocating to St Louis, often want to know what are the “hot” markets, or the markets that have definitely begin to come back? Seller’s want to what the hot markets are as well with the hope they will see their city or zip on the list. Continue Reading → Qualified first-time home buyers can receive a forgivable 3% cash assistance loan for down payment and closing costs on a home. The Missouri Housing Development Commission (MHDC) provides a competitive interest rate on a safe 30-year fixed rate 1st mortgage. Your 3% advance loan is treated as a 2nd mortgage completely forgivable after five years of continuous occupancy. New, Constant Funding means MHDC will have the monies available for the borrowers regardless of bond issuance. Continue Reading → Corelogic released a report today showing that U.S. home prices in September were 5 percent higher than a year ago and that St. Louis home prices were up 0.3 percent during the same period. Corelogic’s data is based upon their home price index and sold prices so I decided to take a look at some real-time data for the market based upon asking prices and found that, as the chart below shows, St Louis home prices increased 2.3 percent from September 2011 to September 2012. Continue Reading → The A.P.R. is a tool for comparing different loans, which will include different interest rates but also different points and other terms. The A.P.R. is designed to represent the “true cost of a loan” to the borrower, expressed in the form of a yearly rate. This way, lenders can’t “hide” fees and upfront costs behind low advertised rates. Continue Reading → The St. Louis area has seen a fairly dramatic change in the make-up of the housing occupants with a shift from home-owners to renters over the past six years. After the crash of the real estate market we have experienced, as well as massive unemployment and a weak economy, this is not surprising, but is something that I think needs to be recognized. The five-county St Louis core market (St Louis County, St. Louis City, St Charles County, Jefferson County and Franklin County) as a whole saw owner-occupied units drop almost 3.5 percent during the period while, at the same time, renter-occupied units increased almost 15 percent. Continue Reading → |
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